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This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 11-27-2015

#7 Baylor just went down to #19 TCU

In other action:
#4 Iowa eked out a win against Nebraska

Tomorrow:
#1 Clemson @ South Carolina
#2 Alabama @ Auburn
#3 Oklahoma @ #11 Oklahoma State
#5 Michigan State hosts Penn State
#8 Ohio State @ #10 Michigan
And of course, #6 UDFG @ #9 Stanford

Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - amartinsu13 - 11-27-2015

Nebraska losing definitely put a dent in our playoff chances.

Assuming we win out (a big if)

4 Playoff spots:
ACC - Clemson OR (choice between: UNC / Stanford)
SEC - Alabama OR (choice between: 11-2 Florida / 11-2 Stanford)
BIG12 - Oklahoma OR (choice between: Oklahoma State / Stanford)
BIG10 -  (Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State) OR (choice between Michigan / Stanford)

Only way the ACC loses their spot is if UNC beats Clemson in the Champ game.  Then the committee chooses between UNC + Stanford.  I think it's unlikely Clemson loses though.

Only way SEC loses their spot is if Florida State beats Florida, and then Florida beats Alabama in the Champ game.  I think it's unlikely Alabama loses.

If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State tomorrow, they're in the playoff.  If Oklahoma State wins, then the committee chooses between 11-1 OK St and 11-2 Stanford.  Toss up.  Who knows.  This might be our best chance of getting in the playoff.

If Michigan State beats Penn State tomorrow, then it will be Michigan State v Iowa for the Big10 Champ.  No matter who wins that game, they'll be in the playoff. 

The only way we steal the Big10's spot is if (and these are a LOT of ifs):
Penn State beats Michigan State
Michigan beats Ohio State
Michigan beats Iowa in the Big10 Champ.

Then the committee chooses between 11-2 Michigan and 11-2 Stanford.  Another toss up.  Who knows who they would choose. 

In summary:
It's highly unlikely the right amount of chaos will happen the next 2 weeks for Stanford to grab a playoff spot.
And none of it matters anyway if we don't win out.

So beat Notre Dame! :)



Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 11-27-2015

If Ok St wins tomorrow, the Big 12 misses the playoffs again.
#14 UNC isn't going to make the playoffs.  If they beat Clemson, all that will do is cost the ACC a playoff appearance as well.
I don't see any way Florida beats FSU.  Losing tomorrow will eliminate them from playoff contention, and beating Bama would just eliminate Bama (and the SEC) from contention.

Realistically, the only conference virtually guaranteed a playoff berth at this point is the Big Ten.  That's how I see it anyway.

Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - amartinsu13 - 11-27-2015

(11-27-2015, 10:52 PM)ThePassionOfTheChryst link Wrote:If Ok St loses tomorrow, the Big 12 misses the playoffs again.
#14 UNC isn't going to make the playoffs.  If they beat Clemson, all that will do is cost the ACC a playoff appearance as well.
I don't see any way Florida beats FSU.  Losing tomorrow will eliminate them from playoff contention, and beating Bama would just eliminate Bama (and the SEC) from contention.

Realistically, the only conference virtually guaranteed a playoff berth at this point is the Big Ten.  That's how I see it anyway.

If Oklahoma loses, the Big12 misses the playoffs you mean.  I think it's a toss up between 11-1 OkSt and 11-2 Stanford.  Who knows how the committee will grade an 11-1 Big12 Champ in OkSt.  The fact that they would be the sole champ of the Big12 makes a difference compared to last year.

Most important games that could determine our playoff chances:
Florida v Florida State
Oklahoma v OK St
Penn St v Michigan St
Florida v Alabama
UNC v Clemson


Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 11-27-2015

(11-27-2015, 10:57 PM)amartinsu13 link Wrote:If Oklahoma loses, the Big12 misses the playoffs you mean.

Yes, that is what I meant.  Good catch.

Quote:I think it's a toss up between 11-1 OkSt and 11-2 Stanford.  Who knows how the committee will grade an 11-1 Big12 Champ in OkSt.  The fact that they would be the sole champ of the Big12 makes a difference compared to last year.

Most important games that could determine our playoff chances:
Florida v Florida State
Oklahoma v OK St
Penn St v Michigan St
Florida v Alabama
UNC v Clemson

Ok State is currently #11.  I know the committee is supposed to throw out the rankings every week, but I still have a hard time believing the #11 team is going to leapfrog the #9 team, especially when #11 will be sitting at home while #9 is actually playing a conference title game.  The committee likes Stanford, period.  That's why there's such a discrepancy between our CFP ranking (#9) and our AP/coaches' rankings (#13).  Assuming we can win our next two, I do believe we will be given the benefit of any doubt that may arise, come final rankings time.

We will still need help, obviously.  Had we beaten Oregon, I believe we would have controlled our own destiny.  But now we need help -- but not an unreasonable amount of it.  Beating ND tomorrow will put us into the top 6, regardless of how the weekend shakes out.  Even if #8 Ohio State beats #10 Michigan, I have to imagine our hypothetical win over #6 ND would allow us to leapfrog them.

I still wouldn't give us very strong chances of being in the final 4, but it's also safe to say the post-Oregon eulogies were premature.

Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - gocard14 - 11-28-2015

If Oklahoma St wins, I'd have to say our schedule compares favorably to theirs. 

They would two top 25 wins over 2-loss oklahoma and 2-loss TCU, with a double-digit loss to 2-loss Baylor, and then 1 score or less wins over Iowa St., Texas, Kansas St, and WVU.  They would have 4 wins over bowl-eligible power-5 teams. Their OOC was CMU, Central arkansas, and UTSA,

We would have wins over a top 10 UDFG, top 25 UCLA, USC (one of them x 2), and WSU, with all wins except WSU being double-digit wins.  Our losses would be to 2-loss Northwestern and 3-loss Oregon (by a failed 2-pt conversion after 2 fumbled snaps). We would have wins over 7, possibly 8 Power 5, bowl eligible teams.

I think our SOS would carry the day, and we make it over OK St in that scenario.

An ACC champ UNC would have wins over Clemson, Pitt, Duke, and Miami, with a total of 5, possibly 6 power-5 bowl eligible teams (3 by single scores), and an ugly loss to a bad South Carolina team.  I think we get picked in that scenario.

A 2-loss Michigan would have losses to Utah and Michigan St. (Mich St. on a fluke last second play), and quality wins over Ohio St. Iowa, Northwestern, BYU, and Penn St. They would have 4 (could be 5 if Indiana wins) wins over power-5 bowl-eligible teams, plus BYU.  They would be ending with 2 wins over top 10 teams though, so this could be a toss-up.

An SEC champ Florida that beats FSU probably gets in over us, despite the fact that their only quality wins would be Alabama, FSU, Georgia, and Ole Miss.  A 2-loss Florida champ that lost to FSU probably does not get in over us, as they would only have 4 wins over power-5 bowl eligible teams and have 5 single-score wins over Kentucky, Vandy, ECU, FAU, and Tennessee.






Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - BostonCard - 11-28-2015

Well Clemson is up 14-3 in the second quarter.

The buckeys are beating the buckeye crushers 14-10 at the half.

BC

Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - amartinsu13 - 11-28-2015

Ohio State imposing their will on Michigan...

I think this is actually one of the most important games that will determine our playoff chances.

If Michigan wins, we still have a chance at stealing the Big 10 spot if Michigan wins out.

If Michigan loses, the Big 10 will 100% have a playoff spot:

If Michigan loses, it actually won't even matter who wins the Penn State Michigan State game.  The Big 10 Champ will still be Michigan State/Ohio State vs. Iowa in the champ.  And any of those teams would be in the playoff with a Big10 Champ win.

Hoping for a big comeback for the Harbaughs!

Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - Langdude - 11-28-2015

Who would have thought that Clemson/South Carolina would be more competitive than Ohio State/Michigan...

-m.

Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - amartinsu13 - 11-28-2015

Now the other major game of the day is Oklahoma v OK St.

If Oklahoma wins, that seals up another playoff spot.

Then our chances will come down to a Clemson or Alabama upset, and that's quite unlikely.

Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - StanfordMatt - 11-28-2015

(11-28-2015, 12:09 PM)amartinsu13 link Wrote:If Michigan loses, it actually won't even matter who wins the Penn State Michigan State game.

Incorrect. You ignore the very real possibility of the Buckeyes making the playoffs even without the conference title. A PSU win eliminates that possibility.

Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - amartinsu13 - 11-28-2015

(11-28-2015, 01:31 PM)StanfordMatt link Wrote:[quote author=amartinsu13 link=topic=13779.msg143980#msg143980 date=1448737774]
If Michigan loses, it actually won't even matter who wins the Penn State Michigan State game.

Incorrect. You ignore the very real possibility of the Buckeyes making the playoffs even without the conference title. A PSU win eliminates that possibility.
[/quote]

I guarantee that would never happen.

The committee would never put a non-conference winning team in above a conference winning team with one more loss.  Now if Ohio State had 1 loss and Stanford had 3 losses that's one thing.

But literally no way a non-conference winning Ohio State gets in over a 2 loss conference winning Stanford.

The committee values conference championships a lot more than you give credit for.

Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - StanfordMatt - 11-28-2015

[tweet]670702533300658176[/tweet]

Tim isn't alone in that thinking either.

Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - dabigv13 - 11-28-2015

That guy says stupid shit all the time. Ohio State has played a single good game this year. Stanford will jump them with wins over ND and in the CCG.

Notably Alabama is in a tough one with Auburn. Would love a shot at those guys.

Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - dabigv13 - 11-28-2015

Henry with 37 carries for 200+. Probably won the Voldemort tonight.

Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - amartinsu13 - 11-28-2015

(11-28-2015, 04:54 PM)dabigv link Wrote:Henry with 37 carries for 200+. Probably won the Voldemort tonight.

McC will just have to run for 300 tonight.

Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - gocard14 - 11-28-2015

Oh good, it's "insert Alabama running back" for Voldemort!

I wonder how many Trent Richardsons it will take to realize that a pretty good back behind Alabama's O-line and coaching is hardly deserving of the Voldemort.  Teams don't game plan for him, they gameplan for that O-line and running attack.  With CMac, teams are keying on him every play, hence the success of the Bryce Love sweep.  If you take away Henry from Alabama, they put in the next 5 star back and they hardly miss a beat.  Take away CMac from our offense and our entire offense changes. 

Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - Stymie - 11-28-2015

+1

Henry is a beast, but he's a one trick beast.  So is Fournette (remember him?).  Mac has at least 5 tricks and he's great at each of them.  He's got my vote, even though nobody asked me....

Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - dabigv13 - 11-28-2015

Henry is a pretty good looking running back, but there's no wow to him. He's just a big strong back. No shake or sizzle, and not even really a truly impressive bruiser like Fournette can be.

That being said, he's the consensus pick already, and he just ran for 271 on 42 carries. McCaffery will have to do some stunning stuff tonight. If he can wrap up the Barry Sanders record in one game, who knows!

Re: This week in teams ranked ahead of Stanford - thunder_chik - 11-28-2015

Oklahoma up 21-10.  Looks like our only role tonight is that of "spoiler".