WBB: Stanford 76 Colorado 68 OT - Printable Version
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WBB: Stanford 76 Colorado 68 OT - 81alum - 01-23-2020
Preview:
Colorado is 13-4, rated 44th by Massey and 50th in RPI. If you believe those ratings it would be in the same ballpark as Tennessee, Texas, and Ohio State. It has beaten Wisconsin, Xavier, and USC and lost to UCLA by a single basket. It split two games with Utah. It lost to Oregon by almost 60 points and to Oregon State by a dozen. Their coach, JR Payne, inflicted one of our most embarrassing losses on us a few years back when we lost to Santa Clara at Maples in an ugly defensive, low scoring game.
Colorado has 4 consistent starters and then a platoon for the fifth slot. Among the four is their leading scorer, # 21 Mya Hollingshed, a 6’3” junior forward who was a starter all last year. She is averaging 14 ppg and 7 rpg. She also shoots threes well at 37%. I presume Nadia will defend her.
Overview:
First there was Gonzaga, and now there is Colorado. It is a sign of how things have changed that we were disappointed last fall when we had to go to overtime to beat Gonzaga, and now we are excited and grateful for the win when Colorado did the same. Of a roster of 15, 5 could not play tonight due to injury, including 3 who had started at some time earlier in the season. Our depleted, patched up unit--led by Lexie who had a career high in points, and freshman Prectel, managed to do just enough to win on their home floor. And the crowd, a pathetic 2800 after we returned from crowds of 12,000 in Eugene and 9,000 in Corvallis, screamed itself hoarse trying to help push our kids over the top. I think it may have helped just a little.
Flow of the game:
JR Payne coaches teams that play and often win ugly. She beat us at Maples as coach of Santa Clara in 2015--a game in which we scored 8 points in the first quarter. She has taken her aggressive philosophy to Colorado, where having a deep rotation permits her players to commit lots of fouls. Colorado out fouled us 24 to 13, and they probably should have been called for twice that number. Contending with this physical style of play is difficult at best, but in missing Dodson, Carrington, Jerome, and Jones we were missing 4 of our most physical players.
Colorado's defense discombobulated us--particularly Williams who started out 0/7. Meanwhile, Lacie could not keep glued on the Colorado freshman sensation Jaylyn Sherrod, who hit treys and also cut to the basket with a quickness that our bigs could not keep up with. The first quarter ended Colorado 21 Stanford 13, with neither our offense or our defense looking very good. Worst of all, we were being grossly outrebounded--Colorado had more offensive rebounds than we had defensive ones. They got 2 or 3 chances most trips down the floor.
Tara had us play zone in the second quarter, and it immediately showed results. Colorado was completely unprepared for it. Colorado did not make a basket in the quarter--though they eked out 4 points on free throws. Our offense was still not clicking--we managed 14 and finished up the half ahead 27-25. But in that quarter 4 of our players made one basket each, and with a few free throws, that was it. Colorado was doing a good job of cutting off all interior passes and swarming anyone who came into the paint, but they always seemed to be covering the three point shooters too. Jenna Brown got quite a bit of time in this quarter helping with the zone on the perimeter, and she seemed to acquit herself defensively quite well.
The third quarter did not go as well. Our offense was creeping along for the third straight quarter--we only managed 12 points--and Tara did not stick with the zone the whole quarter. Colorado scored 16, taking the lead back 41-39, when we went more than 5 minutes without scoring a point.
In the fourth the defenses both began to break down. We took the lead on a Jump trey, and through the middle of the quarter we traded baskets, with Lexie being our most reliable shooter. But by 3:27 Colorado had strung together more baskets than we had, and Aubrey Knight hit an off balance, defended trey to give Colorado a 7 point lead. I imagine most of us thought that was insurmountable, given how labored our offense had become. But Williams and Prechtel both hit treys, and Williams fed Lexie for a layup for a 1 point lead with 19 seconds left. I turned to my neighbor and bemoaned the clock. Of all the times we have run the clock down, and this time we left plenty of time for Colorado. Sure enough, Colorado hit an impossible trey with 2 seconds left for a 2 point lead and I felt ill.
Fortunately, in WBB you can advance the ball on a time out, and Tara did this. We had a pass-and-shoot situation. I and virtually everyone in Maples was watching the perimeter to see who would heave it from beyond the arc. But Lacie threw a perfect pass to Prechtel cutting to the basket, and she put in the layup to tie the game with .2 seconds left and send it to overtime.
In overtime it was an exchange of baskets for the first three minutes, but with two minutes left Prechtel put in a layup for a 1 point lead, then stole the ball back. Lexie made a layup after grabbing an offensive rebound (we needed more of those!) and we had a 3 point lead with 40 seconds left. The fouling game began, and we sank 5 free throws to win 76-68.
Performances:
As a team, we had many advantages on the stat sheet: we had 20 points off turnovers to their 10, 14 turnovers to their 21, 17 assists to their 9, and only 13 fouls to their 24. How could the game have been this close? The answer is in rebounding. Deep into the game we did not have a single offensive rebound. At the half we had 8 to their 13. We evened it up a lot in the 4th quarter, but even so Colorado outrebounded us. The 19 points we scored on free throws was clearly critical to our victory--so Colorado did pay a price.
This was Lexie's career night with 29 points. She was the only player I think who scored in every quarter, and she did a lot of other things well too.
Prechtel got a start tonight--only her second start. She played only 24 minutes--Belibi played 26. Prechtel scored 12, Belibi 11. Prechtel grabbed 4 rebounds Belibi 5 (4 of those offensive!) What was truly remarkable was that all 4 of Prechtel's rebounds came in the final 5 minutes of regulation. On paper they looked equal, but Belibi had long minutes early in the game when she was ineffective on offense. She got going much better later when she received the ball a little further from the basket and attacked, rather than trying to score from under the rim. Neither of them showed the ability to stop speedy little Sherrod or to block her shots.
Fingall and Williams both played over 40 minutes. Fingall finished with 6 points--two three pointers. While those were welcome, she did not score around the basket at all. Williams was 0/5 in the first half but had more success in the second half and overtime.
Lacie had 4 points, but she also led with 7 rebounds and 4 steals--all in 27 minutes. Jump, Brown, and Wilson had cameos with Brown's being the most significant at 15 minutes.
Conclusion:
The injury carnage has taken a toll, and I am revising my expectations for the season. But I am thrilled that despite all the injuries we found a way to pull this game out. If Lexie has a few more games like that, she will become a superstar, and Prechtel and Belibi are both making giant strides into the college game.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - 2006alum - 01-23-2020
(01-23-2020, 04:27 PM)81alum Wrote: Perhaps the most interesting thing for us fans is to see which members of our MASH unit can actually play.
So true, and so sad. Right now, we have a Top Ten Team's starting lineup's worth of players in the MASH unit: Jones, Carrington, Jerome (presumed, given that she didn't return), Belibi, and Dodson. When you throw in Brewer, Fingall's past ACL, Wilson's multiple prior injuries, Lexie's stress reaction last season, Lacie's twisted ankle, and Jump's nose, there's barely a player on the team who's gone four season without missing games due to injury. (And you could also throw in past injuries to recent grads McPhee, Johnson, Coffee, Sniezek, and Karlie Samuelson, at which point we practically seem like the freaking walking wounded.) Are Alanna Smith and Erica McCall the only two recent starters to get through four seasons without at least one injury scratch?
Am I crazy, or has our team had many more injury problems over the past few seasons? I really don't recall so many low-to-medium grade injuries during Wiggins to Ogwumike stretch. Was it luck? Different trainers? Different gear?
Whatever it is, you'd like to think our team deserves to be fully healthy for the rest of the season.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - 81alum - 01-23-2020
(01-23-2020, 04:50 PM)2006alum Wrote:(01-23-2020, 04:27 PM)81alum Wrote: Perhaps the most interesting thing for us fans is to see which members of our MASH unit can actually play.
So true, and so sad. Right now, we have a Top Ten Team's starting lineup's worth of players in the MASH unit: Jones, Carrington, Jerome (presumed, given that she didn't return), Belibi, and Dodson. When you throw in Brewer, Fingall's past ACL, Wilson's multiple prior injuries, Lexie's stress reaction last season, Lacie's twisted ankle, and Jump's nose, there's barely a player on the team who's gone four season without missing games due to injury. (And you could also throw in past injuries to recent grads McPhee, Johnson, Coffee, Sniezek, and Karlie Samuelson, at which point we practically seem like the freaking walking wounded.) Are Alanna Smith and Erica McCall the only two recent starters to get through four seasons without at least one injury scratch?
Am I crazy, or has our team had many more injury problems over the past few seasons? I really don't recall so many low-to-medium grade injuries during Wiggins to Ogwumike stretch. Was it luck? Different trainers? Different gear?
Whatever it is, you'd like to think our team deserves to be fully healthy for the rest of the season.
It must have been that old bouncy Maples removable floor. Bring it back to prevent injuries ;P
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - StanFanFam13 - 01-23-2020
(01-23-2020, 04:50 PM)2006alum Wrote:(01-23-2020, 04:27 PM)81alum Wrote: Perhaps the most interesting thing for us fans is to see which members of our MASH unit can actually play.
So true, and so sad. Right now, we have a Top Ten Team's starting lineup's worth of players in the MASH unit: Jones, Carrington, Jerome (presumed, given that she didn't return), Belibi, and Dodson. When you throw in Brewer, Fingall's past ACL, Wilson's multiple prior injuries, Lexie's stress reaction last season, Lacie's twisted ankle, and Jump's nose, there's barely a player on the team who's gone four season without missing games due to injury. (And you could also throw in past injuries to recent grads McPhee, Johnson, Coffee, Sniezek, and Karlie Samuelson, at which point we practically seem like the freaking walking wounded.) Are Alanna Smith and Erica McCall the only two recent starters to get through four seasons without at least one injury scratch?
Am I crazy, or has our team had many more injury problems over the past few seasons? I really don't recall so many low-to-medium grade injuries during Wiggins to Ogwumike stretch. Was it luck? Different trainers? Different gear?
Whatever it is, you'd like to think our team deserves to be fully healthy for the rest of the season.
I share your sadness and concern, particularly heading into tomorrow's game. This observation is more anecdotal than data-driven, but JR Payne's buffs have struck me in the past as an unpleasantly physical team that resorts to defensive excess when clearly outmatched. In the last couple of seasons, CU games at Maples have been slugfests (I recall a particularly ugly senior night, I think the year McPhee and others graduated) where I was just happy when our players made it out in one piece with the W. We can't ever afford that, but especially not this year. Here's hoping for competent, judicious refs tomorrow!
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - 2006alum - 01-23-2020
(01-23-2020, 06:43 PM)StanFanFam13 Wrote: I share your sadness and concern, particularly heading into tomorrow's game. This observation is more anecdotal than data-driven, but JR Payne's buffs have struck me in the past as an unpleasantly physical team that resorts to defensive excess when clearly outmatched. In the last couple of seasons, CU games at Maples have been slugfests (I recall a particularly ugly senior night, I think the year McPhee and others graduated) where I was just happy when our players made it out in one piece with the W. We can't ever afford that, but especially not this year. Here's hoping for competent, judicious refs tomorrow!100% agree. I was at that game too and I remember thinking it was a slow-motion, 40-minute mugging. As crazy as it is to say, this would be a game where Missy Barlow-style reffing would help us way more than hurt us, because I totally agree that Payne's MO is to inflict pain when she knows her team is totally outmatched in terms of talent and skill.
ETA: Interestingly, I just looked it up, and Barlow actually had the whistle for that game, and Stanford went to the line for 35 FTs (making 19) vs. the Buffs, who went a mere 7-12. Clearly even tight reffing wasn't keeping them in line, and if they have a deep bench, they can afford to distribute a lot of fouls. The Buffs actually outscored us in made baskets that game, but they were fouling us so much we beat them at the line.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - BobK - 01-23-2020
I was hoping an RPI Tennessee Vs UConn. But 27 Tennessee turnovers made that a UConn win 60-45
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - 76lsjumb - 01-23-2020
(01-23-2020, 07:13 PM)BobK Wrote: I was hoping an RPI Tennessee Vs UConn. But 27 Tennessee turnovers made that a UConn win 60-45
60-45? That must have been one really ugly game to watch...
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - CompSci87 - 01-23-2020
(01-23-2020, 07:26 PM)76lsjumb Wrote:(01-23-2020, 07:13 PM)BobK Wrote: I was hoping an RPI Tennessee Vs UConn. But 27 Tennessee turnovers made that a UConn win 60-45
60-45? That must have been one really ugly game to watch...
It was interesting. Tennessee led for most of the first half, as their height did seem to give UConn trouble. UConn got fired up for the second half while Tennessee slowed down and fell apart under UConn's pressure. Another factor was Geno breaking the glass on his two freshmen and letting them play a big role.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - crackpot - 01-23-2020
(01-23-2020, 07:10 PM)2006alum Wrote:(01-23-2020, 06:43 PM)StanFanFam13 Wrote: I share your sadness and concern, particularly heading into tomorrow's game. This observation is more anecdotal than data-driven, but JR Payne's buffs have struck me in the past as an unpleasantly physical team that resorts to defensive excess when clearly outmatched. In the last couple of seasons, CU games at Maples have been slugfests (I recall a particularly ugly senior night, I think the year McPhee and others graduated) where I was just happy when our players made it out in one piece with the W. We can't ever afford that, but especially not this year. Here's hoping for competent, judicious refs tomorrow!100% agree. I was at that game too and I remember thinking it was a slow-motion, 40-minute mugging. As crazy as it is to say, this would be a game where Missy Barlow-style reffing would help us way more than hurt us, because I totally agree that Payne's MO is to inflict pain when she knows her team is totally outmatched in terms of talent and skill.
ETA: Interestingly, I just looked it up, and Barlow actually had the whistle for that game, and Stanford went to the line for 35 FTs (making 19) vs. the Buffs, who went a mere 7-12. Clearly even tight reffing wasn't keeping them in line, and if they have a deep bench, they can afford to distribute a lot of fouls. The Buffs actually outscored us in made baskets that game, but they were fouling us so much we beat them at the line.
My first thought was to hope for Missy, then I remembered last year's USC game where they Moore & Co repeatedly pummeled Nadia until they put her out for the rest of the season.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - mbdude - 01-23-2020
Colorado averages 17 personal fouls per game (down from the 20+ in Payne's early years); Stanford 14.
Side note - posters on the OSU board were complaining how physical the refs allowed us to be.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - crackpot - 01-23-2020
(01-23-2020, 09:01 PM)mbdude Wrote: Colorado averages 17 personal fouls per game (down from the 20+ in Payne's early years); Stanford 14.
Side note - posters on the OSU board were complaining how physical the refs allowed us to be.
Those OSU posters are going to have to help me clean up my keyboard.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - M T - 01-23-2020
(01-23-2020, 09:39 PM)crackpot Wrote: Those OSU posters are going to have to help me clean up my keyboard.
I hope that's just coffee or tea...
Do a little extra cheering this weekend as I won't be in the stands...
I wonder if anyone's got an accounting of games lost to injury per season for coaches. Maybe there are surprises in that.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - StanFanFam13 - 01-24-2020
(01-23-2020, 09:01 PM)mbdude Wrote: Colorado averages 17 personal fouls per game (down from the 20+ in Payne's early years); Stanford 14.
Side note - posters on the OSU board were complaining how physical the refs allowed us to be.
True, but the averages don't necessarily tell the whole story. In the last two seasons, Colorado has had some of their highest-foul games against Stanford. And in both cases, the delta between the two teams' fouls was significant—so it wasn't just a rough game all around.
Last year, while their fouls per game may have averaged in the teens, Colorado had 21 fouls in their game against Stanford (we had 10). The only higher-fouling games were a matchup against UCLA where they picked up 22 fouls and 25 in a game against USC.
The season before (2017-2018), the senior night slugfest was by far their highest-fouling game at 28 (to our 18 fouls).
The data gets muddier the farther back you go, and I was honestly hard pressed to identify too many larger patterns (but I imagine someone better versed in stats could do better). Wins, losses, blowouts, nail biters, rivalries... all have instances of both high and low numbers of fouls across all types of games, logically leading to a more reasonable average. I suppose two data points against Stanford are insufficient to truly establish any kind of pattern, but I still think it's worth noting that their gameplay against us has fallen on one end of the spectrum. While it seems that Colorado knows how to play nice, it rankles that they have chosen not to do so against us in recent years.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - 2006alum - 01-24-2020
Nice analysis. To the degree we think this is a conscious choice by Payne, then only the past three seasons matter, since she's in her fourth season as coach now. And if 2/3 of those games evince this pattern, coupled with the Santa Clara game, I'd say it's on purpose.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - 81alum - 01-24-2020
(01-24-2020, 10:50 AM)2006alum Wrote: Nice analysis. To the degree we think this is a conscious choice by Payne, then only the past three seasons matter, since she's in her fourth season as coach now. And if 2/3 of those games evince this pattern, coupled with the Santa Clara game, I'd say it's on purpose.Absolutely it is on purpose. It is the strategy, the scouting report. An offense like Stanford's relies on timing--those back door cuts (and probably more important the effect a few of those cuts have on the rest of the defense) are only successful if there is perfect coordination and timing. A sloppy, physical game makes it that much more difficult to execute those cuts. They are like timing patterns in football that are unstoppable unless the receiver gets bumped or the quarterback gets pressured.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - 76lsjumb - 01-24-2020
(01-24-2020, 02:22 PM)81alum Wrote:(01-24-2020, 10:50 AM)2006alum Wrote: Nice analysis. To the degree we think this is a conscious choice by Payne, then only the past three seasons matter, since she's in her fourth season as coach now. And if 2/3 of those games evince this pattern, coupled with the Santa Clara game, I'd say it's on purpose.Absolutely it is on purpose. It is the strategy, the scouting report. An offense like Stanford's relies on timing--those back door cuts (and probably more important the effect a few of those cuts have on the rest of the defense) are only successful if there is perfect coordination and timing. A sloppy, physical game makes it that much more difficult to execute those cuts. They are like timing patterns in football that are unstoppable unless the receiver gets bumped or the quarterback gets pressured.
So, then, if we’re a talented team with smart coaches, we devise and execute a game plan that goes against tendencies and renders their scouting report defense less effective.
Pretty simple, it seems to me.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - mbdude - 01-24-2020
watching Cal - Utah game - announcers passed along message from Christa Blunk who will do the Stanford game that no Dodson, Carrington, or Jones. Sounds as if Jerome, Belibi ok to play
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - 81alum - 01-24-2020
Well, we didn't expect Jones.
At this stage, the odds of seeing Carrington or Dodson play again this season just seem more and more remote.
Especially Dodson. Why should she waste a year of eligibility for a fraction of a season in which she is probably not going to be at her best anyway? Better to save the year whether she winds up getting a redshirt year here or doing a Sniezek after she graduates.
If Carrington is thinking of retiring from basketball after she graduates, then perhaps we could see her again for a few games. Otherwise I think she could save a year of eligibility by not playing again this year. Then she could possibly take a redshirt year with us next year or go elsewhere. We should have a scholarship available unless the Wilson redshirt appeal comes through.
It will also be interesting to see what Brewer does. Perhaps she graduates and then goes somewhere to have a little fun with her final year of eligibility. That might be a happy ending for her. It is looking a lot like the Sniezek model.
I doubt that they will tell us very much more at the chalk talk--unless it is good news. When it comes to communicating about injuries, "no news is bad news" I am afraid. It sure looks like we are going to be down three of our best players for the rest of the way, and if one of them hobbles back, she won't be playing at normal end-of-the-season performance levels. Very sad.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - TheFarm07 - 01-24-2020
Unfortunately I will have to agree with 81alum.
These injuries are frustrating, especially those that seemingly come out of nowhere and persist without any end in sight. Haley's injury was bad, but it happened in a game and we all saw it. Maya was injured last year, but she played in the final games of last season, so we thought the offseason would allow her to rest up and recuperate, but no such luck there. DiJonai has had a history of knee issues and had surgery over the summer, but was able to start the season, so unfortunately something happened in the first few games that re-aggravated the injury.
Perhaps next season is more likely for us to make a deep postseason run and challenge for a national title. The underclassmen will have gained valuable experience and even though we lose Fingall, Carrington and Wilson in all likelihood, we gain a new class with talented freshmen like Brink, van Gytenbeek and Agnes-Nnopu who sound like they could contribute right away like this year's class.
But I am also hoping that a miracle can happen and that at least two of these three main contributors can play this season and surprise everyone late in the season
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. Colorado Friday 7pm - 81alum - 01-24-2020
Chalk talk. Dodson, Carrington, Jones, Jerome are out. Kate made a statement and would take no questions on health. Said all 4 were making progress and she sounded somewhat optimistic. Nothing was said about season ending injuries at least. Brewer is dressed but will not play. Part of her return protocol. Belibi is available.