Tanner Mckee - Printable Version
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Tanner Mckee - CardinalLover413 - 07-15-2022
https://gridironheroics.com/stanfords-qb-tanner-mckee-is-looking-for-a-star-junior-campaign/
How good do you think McKee will be this season? Hopefully it doesn't go like last year where he faded down the stretch. I hope he can also stay healthy as well
RE: Tanner Mckee - msqueri - 07-15-2022
I think there's a legitimate hope McKee has a big year. To date, here are the finishes in Total QBR for Shaw's third year QB1s: #15 (Hogan in 2013), #76 (technically not enough snaps to qualify but this is where Chryst would have been in 2016), #6 (Costello in 2018), and #16 (Mills in 2019). The median has been what Hogan and Mills gave us - very good but not elite QB play. That's probably a fair expectation for McKee, a QB in the teens nationally. That's my guess.
RE: Tanner Mckee - winflop - 07-15-2022
(07-15-2022, 03:51 PM)msqueri Wrote: That's probably a fair expectation for McKee, a QB in the teens nationallyI hope he's closer to the top of the rankings than our defense is to the bottom
RE: Tanner Mckee - msqueri - 07-15-2022
(07-15-2022, 04:04 PM)winflop Wrote:(07-15-2022, 03:51 PM)msqueri Wrote: That's probably a fair expectation for McKee, a QB in the teens nationallyI hope he's closer to the top of the rankings than our defense is to the bottom
That strikes me as a very close call/classic Vegas tossup! Gun to my head….I think you’ll be disappointed.
RE: Tanner Mckee - Mick - 07-15-2022
(07-15-2022, 03:51 PM)msqueri Wrote: I think there's a legitimate hope McKee has a big year. To date, here are the finishes in Total QBR for Shaw's third year QB1s: #15 (Hogan in 2013), #76 (technically not enough snaps to qualify but this is where Chryst would have been in 2016), #6 (Costello in 2018), and #16 (Mills in 2019). The median has been what Hogan and Mills gave us - very good but not elite QB play. That's probably a fair expectation for McKee, a QB in the teens nationally. That's my guess.
I wonder what the QBR ratings and Total QBR finishes were for Dils, Benjamin, Stenstrom, Luck and Elway.
RE: Tanner Mckee - Phogge - 07-16-2022
Benjamin, Dills and Schonert all led the country in passing. Before that Brodie and Norman. Different way of qualifying.
RE: Tanner Mckee - yvonne - 07-16-2022
(07-16-2022, 07:17 AM)Phogge Wrote: Benjamin, Dills and Schonert all led the country in passing. Before that Brodie and Norman. Different way of qualifying.
BobK enlightened me about Norman.
RE: Tanner Mckee - msqueri - 07-16-2022
Luck's Total QBR his third year was #1. Total QBR did not exist as a statistic for the old timers. Traditional QB rating is easier to calculate, albeit non-inclusive of all the nuance of Total QBR, and looks like this for QBs in their third year at Stanford (rounding to the closest decimal so I don't have to do all the math on my own for the old timers; including guys who split duty):
Andrew Luck - 170.0
KJ Costello - 155.0
Kevin Hogan - 151.6
Davis Mills - 144.8
Chris Lewis - 135.5
Keller Chryst - 133.8
John Elway - 130.8
Randy Fasani - 130.5
Steve Stenstrom - 127.4
John Paye - 122.3
Chad Hutchinson - 120.2
Todd Husak - 119.6
Guy Benjamin - 116.0
Trent Edwards - 110.7
Steve Cottrell - 108.4
Mike Cordova - 101.5
Brian Johnson - 98.0
Tavita Pritchard - 97.5
Dils and Schonert were not QB1 as third year players as far as I can tell.
Stenstrom/Paye is the historical median. Of course, the sport has evolved greatly over half a century and stats aren't apples-to-apples comparisons from the 1970s and the 2010s.
RE: Tanner Mckee - murky - 07-16-2022
Thanks for creating and sharing that.
I'm surprised to see Chryst so high on the list, and I'd have guessed Stenstrom and Husak higher. I can't comment on Elway, before my time.
RE: Tanner Mckee - Goose - 07-16-2022
(07-16-2022, 09:57 AM)murky Wrote: Thanks for creating and sharing that.I can. I think Msqueri got it exactly right.
I'm surprised to see Chryst so high on the list, and I'd have guessed Stenstrom and Husak higher. I can't comment on Elway, before my time.
Quote:Of course, the sport has evolved greatly over half a century and stats aren't apples-to-apples comparisons from the 1970s and the 2010s.Obviously even in the same era there is no way one can accurately eliminate all the variables, like the offensive philosophy, OL play and receiver play. Elway had to do more with less in many cases. That meant he had to take chances that others didn't. He wasn't much of a "touch" passer, but he was accurate. The receivers claimed on short passes they caught the ball in self-defense. That said, I think that it is clearly incorrect that Chryst is even in the same conversation as Elway, let alone ahead of him. I also do not think Costello, Mills, and Lewis are anywhere close to what Elway did even early in his college career. Different eras make it hard to compare, that is for sure.
RE: Tanner Mckee - msqueri - 07-16-2022
Something to keep in mind is that this exercise, because we're talking about what to expect from McKee, looked at QBs in their third year. As it happened, Elway's third year was his worst as a starter. Elway's second and fourth years would have been behind only Luck, Costello, and Hogan's third years. Elway slumped in 1981. Throwing an interception on every 28th pass does not strike me as doing a great job protecting the ball.
And Chryst's third year was better than his fourth year, so this exercise shows Elway at his worst and Chryst at his best. Notably, Chryst took much better care of the ball. Elway had a 20 to 13 touchdown to interception ratio and threw an interception on every 28th pass. Chryst had a 10 to 2 touchdown to interception ratio and threw an interception on every 68th pass. Aside from ball protection, Elway obviously did far more damage than Chryst did.
This brings up something I always notice when looking at old timer stats: I think it's pretty obvious that in yesteryear football players/coaches didn't understand the importance of possession. Jim Plunkett's career touchdown to interception ratio, for instance, was 53 to 48. He threw an interception every 21 passes. Was he just throwing the ball up there three flies up style and seeing who came down with it? These ratios would be horrendously unplayable in today's game, yet he is our only Voldemort winner ever and obviously one of our greatest players ever. Times change. This is what I was referring to with the evolution in the game over the last 50 years.
Nonetheless, I think QB rating tells us something about what these QBs were doing in terms of the combination of completion percentage, yards per attempt, overall yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. I don't see how one can look at the results and think Elway as a third year player was a better college player that one season than Costello, for instance. Again, that was a bad year for Elway and the high point for Costello. I am not saying Costello was a better college player generally. But this stat has some insight.
RE: Tanner Mckee - BostonCard - 07-16-2022
Don’t underestimate the effect of rule changes (and interpretations) favoring the offense over time. If DB’s played now how they played then, you’d see a ton of defensive holding and pass interference called (or, to put it another way, if DB’s were allowed to bump and hold as much now as they used to, you’d see a lot more incomplete passes and interceptions).
BC
RE: Tanner Mckee - msqueri - 07-16-2022
Good point. What would be most interesting would be to compare the national ranks in passer rating for various QBs. That would be much more apples-to-apples as it would show their quality vis-a-vis their competition. I still think Costello's standout season was one of the best ever for a Stanford QB and highly underrated by many Stanford fans, but you make a great point about the advantages modern QBs have that old-timers didn't. Still, Costello's 2018 QBR was #6 in America. Stellar.
RE: Tanner Mckee - Phogge - 07-16-2022
Dils and Schonert were seniors when they led the nation.
RE: Tanner Mckee - Goose - 07-16-2022
(07-16-2022, 10:56 AM)msqueri Wrote: Something to keep in mind is that this exercise, because we're talking about what to expect from McKee, looked at QBs in their third year. As it happened, Elway's third year was his worst as a starter. Elway's second and fourth years would have been behind only Luck, Costello, and Hogan's third years. Elway slumped in 1981. Throwing an interception on every 28th pass does not strike me as doing a great job protecting the ball.This is a place I think context matters. Obviously based on his previous and subsequent years Elway knew how to avoid interceptions. This is the reason for my statement that Elway had to take chances others didn't. The coach could have reigned him in, but did not because the coach also believed that to win games that year, Stanford had to take even more chances than usual.
<snip>
Nonetheless, I think QB rating tells us something about what these QBs were doing in terms of the combination of completion percentage, yards per attempt, overall yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. I don't see how one can look at the results and think Elway as a third year player was a better college player that one season than Costello, for instance. Again, that was a bad year for Elway and the high point for Costello. I am not saying Costello was a better college player generally. But this stat has some insight.
"Modern" football argues that protecting the ball is always a good idea and that if you throw interceptions you are going to lose. However, if your win probability is essentially zero if you don't take some risks, you might as well give it a shot. You will win some games you otherwise would have lost. One also has to consider "arm punts", which Elway had many. At that point in history, Elway could run and extend the play. Lots of the interceptions were caused by the receiver not catching the ball. The play had broken down and nobody knew what to expect. Elway totally missed/hit quite a few guys in the back because they turned up field or stopped unexpectedly. If you put KJ in Elway's place, I am pretty sure you would see plenty more interceptions from him too, as his later career demonstrated.
Jim Plunkett did in fact throw quite a few interceptions, often for the same reasons as Elway. His career in the NFL had, I think, as similar character. Certainly the Raiders with The Mad Bomber and The Snake took lots of chances before Plunkett got there. It is not as if teams didn't value ball security "back in the day". The Rose Bowl that Stanford won with JP was against a team who carried that to extremes. One has to consider the pass that basically won the game was thrown after the play broke down (Plunkett was running to the right to escape pressure) to a receiver (Bob Moore) that was actually reasonably well covered (bracketed by two defenders). As Woody Hayes said, it was "A mad-dog pass". The experience of losing to U$C twice when you had done everything right can definitely reinforce the idea that if you play "conservative" you will get beat. OJ was going to go down the field. You better too. I don't think the QB rating contains a factor for that.
RE: Tanner Mckee - BostonCard - 07-16-2022
Over the last five years, only five qb’s in the pac-12 have wound up with higher PER’s than Costello, four of them in 2019, which was a ridiculous year in the PAC-12 for QB’s (Tyler Huntley, Kevin Slovis, Anthony Gordon, and Justin Herbert).
BC
RE: Tanner Mckee - lex24 - 07-16-2022
(07-16-2022, 10:56 AM)msqueri Wrote: Something to keep in mind is that this exercise, because we're talking about what to expect from McKee, looked at QBs in their third year. As it happened, Elway's third year was his worst as a starter. Elway's second and fourth years would have been behind only Luck, Costello, and Hogan's third years. Elway slumped in 1981. Throwing an interception on every 28th pass does not strike me as doing a great job protecting the ball.
And Chryst's third year was better than his fourth year, so this exercise shows Elway at his worst and Chryst at his best. Notably, Chryst took much better care of the ball. Elway had a 20 to 13 touchdown to interception ratio and threw an interception on every 28th pass. Chryst had a 10 to 2 touchdown to interception ratio and threw an interception on every 68th pass. Aside from ball protection, Elway obviously did far more damage than Chryst did.
This brings up something I always notice when looking at old timer stats: I think it's pretty obvious that in yesteryear football players/coaches didn't understand the importance of possession. Jim Plunkett's career touchdown to interception ratio, for instance, was 53 to 48. He threw an interception every 21 passes. Was he just throwing the ball up there three flies up style and seeing who came down with it? These ratios would be horrendously unplayable in today's game, yet he is our only Voldemort winner ever and obviously one of our greatest players ever. Times change. This is what I was referring to with the evolution in the game over the last 50 years.
Nonetheless, I think QB rating tells us something about what these QBs were doing in terms of the combination of completion percentage, yards per attempt, overall yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. I don't see how one can look at the results and think Elway as a third year player was a better college player that one season than Costello, for instance. Again, that was a bad year for Elway and the high point for Costello. I am not saying Costello was a better college player generally. But this stat has some insight.
I don’t think you can compare QB stats from the 80’s to today. Different game. QBs didn’t make half their throws within about 5 yards from LOS.
Also, don’t care how great QB is. Supporting cast matters. Elway’s junior year he didn’t have the receivers he did in other years. (He also had a bad ankle much of the year)
Passing game has become increasingly horizontal. 60% was a good percentage in 80. Not today, with so many long handoffs……
RE: Tanner Mckee - Goose - 07-16-2022
(07-16-2022, 01:25 PM)lex24 Wrote: I don’t think you can compare QB stats from the 80’s to today. Different game. QBs didn’t make half their throws within about 5 yards from LOS.Totally agree. The rule changes have a brobdingnagian impact on today's passing game. The short horizontal patterns were impossible to run when the DBs could bump the receivers off their routes when you ran them. Just getting off the LOS was a bit of a struggle. The OL had to pass protect longer because the patterns were longer. Often they couldn't and then the QB had to scramble or get hit real good. Even as mobile as he was Elway didn't see many of his completions or interceptions because he was on the ground when the ball was caught.
Also, don’t care how great QB is. Supporting cast matters. Elway’s junior year he didn’t have the receivers he did in other years. (He also had a bad ankle much of the year)
Passing game has become increasingly horizontal. 60% was a good percentage in 80. Not today, with so many long handoffs……
RE: Tanner Mckee - Mick - 07-16-2022
(07-16-2022, 09:54 AM)msqueri Wrote: Luck's Total QBR his third year was #1. Total QBR did not exist as a statistic for the old timers. Traditional QB rating is easier to calculate, albeit non-inclusive of all the nuance of Total QBR, and looks like this for QBs in their third year at Stanford (rounding to the closest decimal so I don't have to do all the math on my own for the old timers; including guys who split duty):
Andrew Luck - 170.0
KJ Costello - 155.0
Kevin Hogan - 151.6
Davis Mills - 144.8
Chris Lewis - 135.5
Keller Chryst - 133.8
John Elway - 130.8
Randy Fasani - 130.5
Steve Stenstrom - 127.4
John Paye - 122.3
Chad Hutchinson - 120.2
Todd Husak - 119.6
Guy Benjamin - 116.0
Trent Edwards - 110.7
Steve Cottrell - 108.4
Mike Cordova - 101.5
Brian Johnson - 98.0
Tavita Pritchard - 97.5
Dils and Schonert were not QB1 as third year players as far as I can tell.
Stenstrom/Paye is the historical median. Of course, the sport has evolved greatly over half a century and stats aren't apples-to-apples comparisons from the 1970s and the 2010s.
I'm shocked that Chris Lewis and Keller Chryst are so high. Also shocked that Benjamin and Edwards are so low.
RE: Tanner Mckee - Softball Fan - 07-16-2022
While I'm not much of a football fan I do follow some of the Olympic sports. FWIW, I'm cheering for McKee and the football team to have a good season and a successful bowl appearance. A winning season may increase Stanford's options in conference re-alignment. It's also possible a good season may not impact Stanford's ultimate fate but no one knows that at this point. Go Cardinal football.