WBB: Stanford 67 North Carolina 69 - Printable Version
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WBB: Stanford 67 North Carolina 69 - 81alum - 01-31-2025
Preview:
We start a difficult gauntlet on Sunday, with North Carolina at Maples, followed by a road trip to Notre Dave and Louisville. We will not be favored to win any of them, although Louisville is not the juggernaut that once knocked us out of the NCAA tourney. The team really--almost desperately--needs to win a game like one of these to instill confidence and optimism, not to mention giving us a chance to make a post season tourney. But I would be a fool to predict a win in any of the next three.
North Carolina is nationally ranked #15, and Massey's computer has them at 16. They are 19-4 on the strength of an elite defense--#6 in the country (again according to Massey.) Their offense is rated #45. For comparison, Stanford's defense is rated 26 and our offense 17. Those are not terrible numbers, and since BOTH teams have significantly better defenses than the opposing team's offense--I think what we could hope for is a bruising defensive battle (as with Pitt) in which the season stats get thrown away and we somehow eek out a win. Stranger things have happened.
Indya Nivar is the North Carolina point guard, meaning we will see our former player for more minutes than we ever saw her play when she was at Stanford. Nivar's stats are not terribly impressive. She has started all 20 games she has played in and averages 23 minutes. She averages 8 ppg and has an assist/turnover ratio of almost exactly 1:1. She shoots the three at only 24% and free throws at only 48%. And yet--she is a starter. I presume her defense is terrific. She does lead her team in steals with 43.
North Carolina's most prolific scorer is Alyssa Ustby at about 11 ppg, but all 5 starters score in the 8-11 point range, so there really is no one in particular to focus the defense on. Ustby is a 6'1" grad student who has played her whole career at North Carolina. She has made a few treys but is primarily an inside presence. She also leads them in rebounds--9.4.
Maria Gakdeng is their big 6'3" center, a senior who last year was on the Lisa Leslie watch list. She makes 63% of her shots, so I presume they are mostly layups. She is who we want Kennedy Umeh to become, and I suspect that Umeh will get a chance to guard this player who has several years more experience than she does.
Lexi Donarsky (did she have to have that first name?) is North Carolina's best three point shooter at 41%, and has made 54 so far this year. That accounts for about 2/3 of her made baskets, so she seems to prefer the perimeter. She is a 6'0" grad student guard who transferred in a year ago from Iowa State.
The final starter is Reniya Kelly, a 5'7" sophomore guard. She hits about 40% of her treys but takes 3/4 of her shots from inside the arc. She is very quick.
Several of these players were ACC all-academic last year, for whatever that is worth. Maybe it means North Carolina no longer gives out "A"s for the asking to any player who will sign up for a "directed reading" course with the right professor. No, that corruption must belong to the Sylvia Hatchell days. (https://www.cnn.com/2014/10/22/us/unc-report-academic-fraud/index.html)
On Thursday North Carolina took down Cal 65-52, holding Cal to 19 baskets on 37% shooting. Cal had 16 turnovers--this wasn't Duke--nor can I find a gross rebounding advantage. It seems North Carolina just forced Cal to take a lot of awkward and hasty shots, lowering its percentage to well under its season average. And Cal had very few offensive rebounds--after missing a lot, they were one-and-done.
North Carolina only made 3 treys in the game, so Cal must have defended the perimeter well enough. North Carolina's smallest player--Reniya Kelly--led them with 16 points, none of them from three point range.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - JohnR34231 - 02-01-2025
Given our luck against Kal this year, I worry about us playing any team that can beat them by double digits.
But, as I hoped for with Duke, there is always the chance of them having the game from hell and us playing very well.
Didn't work out that way with Duke though, but I can still hope it does in this one.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - paloalto - 02-01-2025
Hard for me to understand how Massey's algorithm says there are only 16 DI teams with a better offense than Stanford. Nonetheless I think Stanford will have a good showing against one of the next three opponents and maybe even get a win.
According to Massey Stanford's offense is much better than North Carolina's offense if I'm reading the numbers correctly.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - 76lsjumb - 02-01-2025
(02-01-2025, 08:52 AM)paloalto Wrote: Hard for me to understand how Massey's algorithm says there are only 16 DI teams with a better offense than Stanford. Nonetheless I think Stanford will have a good showing against one of the next three opponents and maybe even get a win.
According to Massey Stanford's offense is much better than North Carolina's offense if I'm reading the numbers correctly.
Massey must not have attended the Pitt game. Based on that performance, I'd wager there are more than 16 high school teams with better offenses than we showed on Thursday.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - old spanish trail - 02-01-2025
(02-01-2025, 11:36 AM)76lsjumb Wrote:(02-01-2025, 08:52 AM)paloalto Wrote: Hard for me to understand how Massey's algorithm says there are only 16 DI teams with a better offense than Stanford. Nonetheless I think Stanford will have a good showing against one of the next three opponents and maybe even get a win.
According to Massey Stanford's offense is much better than North Carolina's offense if I'm reading the numbers correctly.
Massey must not have attended the Pitt game. Based on that performance, I'd wager there are more than 16 high school teams with better offenses than we showed on Thursday.
Lol
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - crackpot - 02-01-2025
BTW, my two emails to KRON about the CW broadcast for this game have both gone unanswered.
Good luck!
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - 81alum - 02-02-2025
It is very weird to see Indya out there wearing powder blue.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - CompSci87 - 02-02-2025
(02-01-2025, 02:09 PM)crackpot Wrote: BTW, my two emails to KRON about the CW broadcast for this game have both gone unanswered.
Good luck!
Comcast listing says it's on KRON.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - BobK - 02-02-2025
I’m watching on CW Comcast 704
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - M T - 02-02-2025
4-second call (but it would have been 5 seconds)
Followed by a non-traveling call (Q1 4:23(
Bogus blocking call at Q1 0:27.7. She didn't shift and both feet were down.
Q2 7:41 Bosgana clearly didn't contact with her arms. It looks like she didn't contact with her body either.
Q2 6:43 Blocking foul on a handoff by UNC. I still can't see a rationale for these calls, but they've been calling them.
Q2 2:36 Another bogus travel call!
Q2 2:26 Bad call against Bosgana. Player goes straight through her and Bosgana gets dinged.
Q2 2:22 UNC should be called for a travel but official signals bobble. So? It is her own doing.
Q3 9:45 UNC back-court violation uncalled. They had possession (dribbling) in the front court before stepping in the back court.
Q3 8:47 Ref starts counting seconds when defender is well away. There was a point in Q2 with same distance where they didn't count when UNC had the ball.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - Hieronymus - 02-02-2025
So is that 3 offensive fouls on us in just Q1? For reference the average for a GAME for a team is about 2. Plus 2 block out fouls thought I admit Demetre face guarding was pretty obvious.
Well they did a lot of things well in that half and are hanging in there. Too many turnovers and offensive rebounds for NC.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - 2006alum - 02-02-2025
Game feels closer than the score due to a late surge by UNC. They are crisper at passing and clearly the more experienced team, but we're grittier, and seem dialed in. Refs are calling it pretty tightly, and if we can get their big into further foul trouble early in the third, we can platoon more reinforcements because there's a much more noticeable drop-off from their starting lineup to their bench than ours. Crowd atmosphere has been excellent, too. I'm not sure we'll win, but so far really enjoying how we've bounced back from the offensive Pitts on Thursday.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - CompSci87 - 02-02-2025
Tough last minute before half. We were within 4 with the ball, but air balled an open 3 and then gave up a 3 at the other end.
We're definitely competitive in this game. Would help a lot if our 3 point shooting were even close to normal.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - JohnR34231 - 02-02-2025
Well we cut their lead to two as Q2 was going down and then we let them quickly score five to make the first half 39-32.
Oh well, at least we are more or less hanging in there.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - here4WBB - 02-02-2025
It’s three minutes into the quarter, and they are interviewing Tara over the play. This is at least the second time this has happened. I really don't like this.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - 2006alum - 02-02-2025
Could we have the last 5 minutes of game time back? Somehow they went from 2 up to 14 up and our sloppiness is really rearing its ugly head. Really need to take care of the ball and wait for good looks.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - JohnR34231 - 02-02-2025
(02-02-2025, 02:15 PM)2006alum Wrote: Could we have the last 5 minutes of game time back? Somehow they went from 2 up to 14 up and our sloppiness is really rearing its ugly head. Really need to take care of the ball and wait for good looks.
Frustrating, isn't it?
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - Card10Fan - 02-02-2025
Tara being interviewed. Her words, “when we are struggling like this, it’s like having a root canal, I’m in pain.” Sums it up pretty well.
Also TV announcers confirmed Lepolo is out the rest of the season and not expected to return this year.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - M T - 02-02-2025
Clardy sure is a liability. I hope someday she'll learn that she needs to play her position for defense.
RE: WBB: Stanford vs. North Carolina Sunday 12 noon; preview and game thread - JohnR34231 - 02-02-2025
Holey Moley, we cut the lead to 3.
We probably won't win, but you have got to give us credit for hanging in there.