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#17 in the BCS, - Gauss - 10-21-2012

Pretty good, the Strength of Schedule (all those wins by SJSU, Duke and ND) is helping us a lot. It is a real pity that we lost two winnable games, especially against UW, who is only an ok team.  To be fair, we were also fortunate to beat Arizona.

We should keep moving up (I think we are better than at least Louisville, Rutgers, Oregon State), and hopefully we'll be 8-2 when facing Oregon. If somehow our offense delivers, and we contain them... well, let's see what happens.

Re: #17 in the BCS, - yvonne - 10-21-2012

Indeed, if we score more points than they do, we win the game.

:D

Re: #17 in the BCS, - dabigv13 - 10-21-2012

#11 in the computers...ahead of USC. Still think there's no way we beat Oregon, so it's all sort of pointless anyway. But if we had a competent QB and beat ND and UW, just lost against UO...probably be BCS bound again.

Re: #17 in the BCS, - StannyBoy - 10-21-2012

I think we should win every game left on the schedule except for Oregon. Oregon is in a league of their own. Way better than USC. I'm not at all confident we can beat them unless we get a more consistent QB, some decent WRs, and some more creative play calling. Even with an Oregon loss we should be a top 15 team if not close to top 10 going into the bowl games.

Re: #17 in the BCS, - JeffInCorvallis - 10-21-2012

We are not a top 10 team.  Top 15, top 20, maybe.  A top 10 team doesn't leave Seattle without an offensive touchdown.

Re: #17 in the BCS, - Hank 91 - 10-21-2012

I was talking to a friend today about the Oregon game. Normally I'm hopelessly optimistic about Stanford football (in just over two years running Go Mighty Card, I've never predicted a Stanford loss), but I can't imagine a victory in Eugene this year. What I'm really looking forward to, though, is seeing how our defense performs against that offense. This is the best defense Stanford has had in quite some time, and I'm curious to see how the increased depth and overall speed serves us against the Ducks. Again, I don't think we can beat them, but I think the game will serve as something of a measuring stick for the defense. How great are they? How much have they improved since the last time?

A team's offense usually affects how its defense plays, simply because of how much or little the defensive unit is on the field, but Oregon's high octane offense kind of mitigates that. As much as our offense struggles, we might STILL win the time of possession battle.

We have to beat Oregon eventually, and if this team develops as most think it will, 2013 could see us back in the BCS hunt, and we might have a shot at the new Final Four in 2014. It would be nice to beat the Ducks along the way.

Re: #17 in the BCS, - CowboyIndian - 10-21-2012

(10-21-2012, 09:21 PM)JeffInCorvallis link Wrote:We are not a top 10 team.  Top 15, top 20, maybe.  A top 10 team doesn't leave Seattle without an offensive touchdown.
You don't believe a season is dynamic and/or a team can improve ?


Re: #17 in the BCS, - StannyBoy - 10-21-2012

(10-21-2012, 09:21 PM)JeffInCorvallis link Wrote:We are not a top 10 team.  Top 15, top 20, maybe.  A top 10 team doesn't leave Seattle without an offensive touchdown.

Stanford could easily finish around 10 if they beat everyone else minus Oregon. Oregon State is top 10 right now and they really aren't very good. Just wait and see.

Re: #17 in the BCS, - FarmBoy - 10-22-2012

I'm surprised at total capitulation of the Oregon game made by fans of a team that went on the road to be a team that was 42 point favorites, just 5 years ago. Of course it's unlikely we'll beat Oregon in Autzen, when so few teams have done that the past few years, but saying we can't is too defeatist for a 5-2 team that has players with multi-BCS bowl experience, one of the best defenses in program history, a stout running game and a few other great offensive weapons.

Hell, don't you all remember this game that we were supposed to lose to a superior Oregon team:
http://www.gostanford.com/sports/m-footbl/recaps/102001aaa.html

"Can't" and "won't" shouldn't be in the lexicon for fans of a team that has been on the top side of so many great upsets of top-5 competition.

Re: #17 in the BCS, - FarmBoy - 10-22-2012

I'm surprised at total capitulation of the Oregon game made by fans of a team that went on the road to be a team that was 42 point favorites, just 5 years ago. Of course it's unlikely we'll beat Oregon in Autzen, when so few teams have done that the past few years, but saying we can't is too defeatist for a 5-2 team that has players with multi-BCS bowl experience, one of the best defenses in program history, a stout running game and a few other great offensive weapons.

Hell, don't you all remember this game that we were supposed to lose to a superior Oregon team:
http://www.gostanford.com/sports/m-footbl/recaps/102001aaa.html

"Can't" and "won't" shouldn't be in the lexicon for fans of a team that has been on the top side of so many great upsets of top-5 competition.

Re: #17 in the BCS, - Oasis - 10-22-2012

To beat Oregon we have to get a lot better performance out of our offense.  If we can control the ball and let the defense rest we have a chance.  Otherwise they will wear us down and run up the score in the second half.

My supremely non-expert take on our offense is that it is capable of much better and doing better comes down to our passing game.  Nunes is under-performing. To me, it seems he often throws balls behind the receivers.  We've all covered our eyes and howled as he misses an open receiver.  He has to be much better than that.  (Okay, insert here Twain's comment on Wagner's music.)  If Nunes is in a funk and can't get out of it, put somebody else in.  Just do it.  If we can pass well enough that Oregon can't just put 8 or 9 guys on the line of scrimmage to stuff the run, then we can move the ball.  Get Stepfan a few yards downfield and he can explode. I was impressed Saturday with how strong and fast he is if he gets a little daylight.

Re: #17 in the BCS, - Oasis - 10-22-2012

To beat Oregon we have to get a lot better performance out of our offense.  If we can control the ball and let the defense rest we have a chance.  Otherwise they will wear us down and run up the score in the second half.

My supremely non-expert take on our offense is that it is capable of much better and doing better comes down to our passing game.  Nunes is under-performing. To me, it seems he often throws balls behind the receivers.  We've all covered our eyes and howled as he misses an open receiver.  He has to be much better than that.  (Okay, insert here Twain's comment on Wagner's music.)  If Nunes is in a funk and can't get out of it, put somebody else in.  Just do it.  If we can pass well enough that Oregon can't just put 8 or 9 guys on the line of scrimmage to stuff the run, then we can move the ball.  Get Stepfan a few yards downfield and he can explode. I was impressed Saturday with how strong and fast he is if he gets a little daylight.

Re: #17 in the BCS, - Cardinal96 - 10-22-2012

(10-21-2012, 10:08 PM)young_money link Wrote:[quote author=JeffInCorvallis link=topic=6724.msg50229#msg50229 date=1350879661]
We are not a top 10 team.  Top 15, top 20, maybe.  A top 10 team doesn't leave Seattle without an offensive touchdown.

Stanford could easily finish around 10 if they beat everyone else minus Oregon. Oregon State is top 10 right now and they really aren't very good. Just wait and see.
[/quote]

Yeah I think we will beat OSU. 

Re: #17 in the BCS, - Cardinal96 - 10-22-2012

(10-21-2012, 10:08 PM)young_money link Wrote:[quote author=JeffInCorvallis link=topic=6724.msg50229#msg50229 date=1350879661]
We are not a top 10 team.  Top 15, top 20, maybe.  A top 10 team doesn't leave Seattle without an offensive touchdown.

Stanford could easily finish around 10 if they beat everyone else minus Oregon. Oregon State is top 10 right now and they really aren't very good. Just wait and see.
[/quote]

Yeah I think we will beat OSU. 

Re: #17 in the BCS, - Farm93 - 10-22-2012

Go 9-3 and the team enters bowl season in the top 10, for sure.  A lot of the top 15 teams will finally start to play other ranked teams.  At the end of the year, good 3 loss teams are normally in that 10-15 range.  Stanford would have one weak road loss, and two road losses to top 10 teams.  Forget what we know about the team, that profile normally finishes in the top 10.

It is true that Stanford does not have a top 20 QB, but Stanford has a top 4 or 5 defense.  Teams with a mediocre QB and an amazing defense (see LSU 2011) can go far.  So even with what we know it is not unreasonable to believe that a top 10 finish with 3 losses is possible.

FWIW - If Stanford goes 8-4 then the result is top 20.

It does not really matter though where Stanford finishes.  Stanford can win the Pac-12 and go to the Rose Bowl.  Otherwise, even with a top 10 BCS finish, Stanford is Alamo, Holiday or Sun Bowl bound.

The combination of Notre Dame, USC and Oregon will get at least 2 BCS bowl invites, maybe 3.  If those 3 teams consume 2 or more at-large bids then there is nothing in the BCS for Stanford.  With a loss to Oregon, Stanford is fighting for that 3rd slot in the conference and the poll positions are not really a part of that 3rd slot battle.

Re: #17 in the BCS, - Farm93 - 10-22-2012

Go 9-3 and the team enters bowl season in the top 10, for sure.  A lot of the top 15 teams will finally start to play other ranked teams.  At the end of the year, good 3 loss teams are normally in that 10-15 range.  Stanford would have one weak road loss, and two road losses to top 10 teams.  Forget what we know about the team, that profile normally finishes in the top 10.

It is true that Stanford does not have a top 20 QB, but Stanford has a top 4 or 5 defense.  Teams with a mediocre QB and an amazing defense (see LSU 2011) can go far.  So even with what we know it is not unreasonable to believe that a top 10 finish with 3 losses is possible.

FWIW - If Stanford goes 8-4 then the result is top 20.

It does not really matter though where Stanford finishes.  Stanford can win the Pac-12 and go to the Rose Bowl.  Otherwise, even with a top 10 BCS finish, Stanford is Alamo, Holiday or Sun Bowl bound.

The combination of Notre Dame, USC and Oregon will get at least 2 BCS bowl invites, maybe 3.  If those 3 teams consume 2 or more at-large bids then there is nothing in the BCS for Stanford.  With a loss to Oregon, Stanford is fighting for that 3rd slot in the conference and the poll positions are not really a part of that 3rd slot battle.

Re: #17 in the BCS, - FarmBoy - 10-22-2012

Notre Dame is 90% likely to go to a BCS bowl. They will likely lose to Oklahoma and U.SC. The only other possible loss would be to Wake Forest, which would constitute a pretty big upset, but perhaps ND comes out flat as they look ahead to U.SC, so who knows. Even then, at 9-3, they likely qualify for a BCS bowl (by remaining in the top 14), unless their losses are crushing defeats and voters slam them, and I have a hard time believing their defense will give up a lot of points. Sadly, the best chance to keep ND out of the BCS discussion was for us to beat them.

As for Stanford, it's going to take us running the table, at least for the regular season, for us to have a shot. Losing to Oregon would mean Oregon and U.SC are the top teams in the league (forgive me for not buying into OSU yet.) If we go 10-2 and then lost to U.SC in the conference championship game, I could see us getting a spot, depending on how many chairs are available at the table. Oregon would likely be 1-loss, but their schedule is pillow-top soft, so I could see voters putting us ahead of them, especially if we beat them in Autzen. It's a long shot, but a possibility.

The season is that much more interesting when your bowl options are (virtually) boundless, so I will continue to hold out hope.

Re: #17 in the BCS, - FarmBoy - 10-22-2012

Notre Dame is 90% likely to go to a BCS bowl. They will likely lose to Oklahoma and U.SC. The only other possible loss would be to Wake Forest, which would constitute a pretty big upset, but perhaps ND comes out flat as they look ahead to U.SC, so who knows. Even then, at 9-3, they likely qualify for a BCS bowl (by remaining in the top 14), unless their losses are crushing defeats and voters slam them, and I have a hard time believing their defense will give up a lot of points. Sadly, the best chance to keep ND out of the BCS discussion was for us to beat them.

As for Stanford, it's going to take us running the table, at least for the regular season, for us to have a shot. Losing to Oregon would mean Oregon and U.SC are the top teams in the league (forgive me for not buying into OSU yet.) If we go 10-2 and then lost to U.SC in the conference championship game, I could see us getting a spot, depending on how many chairs are available at the table. Oregon would likely be 1-loss, but their schedule is pillow-top soft, so I could see voters putting us ahead of them, especially if we beat them in Autzen. It's a long shot, but a possibility.

The season is that much more interesting when your bowl options are (virtually) boundless, so I will continue to hold out hope.

Re: #17 in the BCS, - jayasena - 10-22-2012

I'm surprised there's even talk of BCS bowls not named Rose. Aside from winning the league and going to the Rose (which, admittedly, is highly unlikely), there's no way we make it to a BCS bowl.

Even with one loss (to a highly-ranked Oregon) and the TV appeal of Luck, there were serious questions about our viability as a BCS at-large the past two years (especially after the 2010 season). This year, with 3 losses and no Luck-level national interest? Forget it...

Re: #17 in the BCS, - jayasena - 10-22-2012

I'm surprised there's even talk of BCS bowls not named Rose. Aside from winning the league and going to the Rose (which, admittedly, is highly unlikely), there's no way we make it to a BCS bowl.

Even with one loss (to a highly-ranked Oregon) and the TV appeal of Luck, there were serious questions about our viability as a BCS at-large the past two years (especially after the 2010 season). This year, with 3 losses and no Luck-level national interest? Forget it...