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Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-23-2017

OK, now for all the marbles against our nemesis the past several years, the Florida Gators. 

I.  BACKGROUND AND LOGISTICS

* Logistics: The match was originally scheduled to air on ESPNU at 5pm ET/2pm PT, but was first pushed back to 6pm ET/3pm PT, and has apparently now been pushed back to no earlier than 8pm ET/5pm PT, per Florida's team twitter account.  The NCAA is still holding out hope that they can play it outdoors, but it looks like the men's final is going to start at 4pm ET/1pm PT at the UGA indoor courts in Athens.  Since I'd expect 5 and 6 to be two of our stronger courts against Florida, playing indoor on UGA's courts would seem to be a disadvantage.  At this point, just send us back to Atlanta!

* Rankings: Florida is ranked and seeded #1. Stanford is ranked #6 and seeded #7. Florida has three losses on the year, two to Vanderbilt (4-2 in the regular season and 4-3 in the SEC final) and one to Georgia (4-1).  Stanford's losses were to, well, Florida (4-1) and #12 Pepperdine (5-2). 

* Road to the final:  Florida beat #20 Texas A&M 4-1 in the R16, #9 Oklahoma State 4-1 in the QFs, and #4 Vanderbilt 4-2 in the semifinals.  By contrast, Stanford beat #10 Michigan 4-1 in the R16, #2 North Carolina 4-2 in the QFs, and #3 Ohio State 4-3 in the semifinals.  We've had the harder road, and as Taylor Davidson's trip to the hospital in the wee hours this morning shows, we're feeling it a little. 

* Head to head:  Back in February, Stanford lost 4-1 to Florida in Gainesville.  In that match, Florida rolled to the doubles point with a 6-3 win at #1 and a 6-1 win at #3.  Doyle then lost quickly at #2, Higuchi got a point on the board with a 6-2, 6-1 win, Lampl lost 7-5 in the third set to make it 3-1, and Florida sealed the deal at #1, where Davidson lost her third set 6-0.  (At the time, Lord was trailing in her third set at #3, and Arbuthnott had lost her first set 7-6 and was on serve late in the second set.)  So, not all that close. 

II.  BUT WHAT ABOUT VANDERBILT? 

Stanford beat Vanderbilt 4-3 at Taube the week after the Florida loss, and Vanderbilt beat Florida twice, 4-2 in the regular season and 4-3 in the SEC final.  (They avenged those losses with a 4-2 semifinal win yesterday.)  A few points about those matches: 

(1) Our top three were different than today in both the Florida loss and the Vanderbilt win.  Davidson was at 1, Doyle was at 2, and Lord was at 3.  So the matchups aren't the same.

(2) Against Vanderbilt, Stanford won the doubles point with strong wins at #2 and #3.  Vanderbilt's Sharma then beat Davidson handily at #1, Lord got the win at #3 over Sellyn, 6-0, 7-5, Doyle lost in three sets to Campbell at #2, Higuchi beat Smith in three sets at #6, Lampl lost a third-set tiebreaker to Rosca, and Arbuthnott clinched by winning her own third-set tiebreaker over Kurtz.  When Vanderbilt beat Florida the first time, they did it by getting the doubles point, and getting singles wins at 1, 2, and 6, losing or trailing at 3, 4, and 5.  When they did it the second time, Vandy lost the doubles point, but got singles wins at 1, 2, 3, and 6.  Yesterday, Florida won by getting the doubles point and reversing course at #1, finally beating Sharma there (Vandy still won at 2 and 3, and 6 was still ongoing when the match was decided). 

(3) So, there are some lessons there.  If you want to beat Florida, you get the doubles point.  (Duh, right?)  They're vulnerable at #2 and #6.  We're good at #2 and #6. 

III.  THE MATCHUPS

But ultimately, looking at the individual matches, this isn't as much like UNC or Ohio State where we can reasonably envision a path to a win based on past results and guess how things might play out.  No, to win, we need to pull some upsets--the Florida player is ranked higher in all doubles matches and singles matches except for #5, where both players are unranked.  We can pull it off--this is Stanford women's tennis, after all--but we are by no means favored.  Here are the matchups, assuming Davidson can go:

Doubles:

#1. #39 Arbuthnott/Davidson vs. #11 Anna Danilina/Ingrid Neel
#2. #46 Doyle/Lord vs. #20 Brooke Austin/Kourtney Keegan
#3. Higuchi/Lampl vs. #45 Josie Kuhlman/Belina Woolcock

So, Florida is favored at each doubles spot.  Back in February, the #1 and #2 Florida pairs were swapped.  Austin/Keegan beat Arbuthnott/Davidson 6-3, Kuhlman/Woolcock beat Higuchi/Lampl 6-1, and Doyle/Lord were tied 4-4 with Danilina/Neel.  Hard to overstate how important the doubles point is in a match like this.  It's always mathematically important, of course, as one point of the seven available.  But when singles wins start looking harder to find, doubles can provide a brobdingnagian psychological boost in addition to the mathematical one. 

Singles:

#1. #38 Doyle vs. #6 Woolcock. Doyle lost 6-1, 6-3 to Neel in February at #2. 
#2. #28 Lord vs. #23 Kuhlman.  Lord was trailing Danilina 4-1 in the third set at #3 when the match was decided.
#3. #54 Davidson vs. #31 Neel.  Davidson lost to Woolcock in February at #1, but it went three sets (though Woolcock won 6-0 in the third).
#4. #90 Lampl vs. #44 Danilina.  Lampl lost to Austin 7-5 in the third set at #4. 
#5. Arbuthnott vs. Austin.  Arbuthnott trailed Kuhlman 7-6, 5-4 at #5 back in February.
#6.  #71 Higuchi vs. #59 Keegan.  Higuchi beat Spencer Liang 6-2, 6-1 at #6, but Keegan has bumped Liang from the lineup. 

So, it's an interesting situation where the rematch against Florida involves no individual rematches.  All six players will be playing different Florida players than they played last time.  Since last time didn't exactly go well for us, hopefully this lineup shuffling means our players go into the match with a clean mental slate without any baggage from the last match against Florida.  But this is the toughest matchup for us.  Woolcock can be beaten by a top #1, but our strength isn't at #1 this year.  Their strongest courts are at 3-5, where we usually pick up a couple of points. 

So how do we win, when the odds seem stacked against us, even if Davidson is ready to go?  Well, come out firing with the doubles point, and put the Gators back on their heels.  Get strong showings from Higuchi, Lord, and Arbuthnott, limit the damage to Doyle at 1, and hope Davidson and Lampl can stay in their matches.  If Florida wins the doubles point, then you either need Lampl to elevate her game or for Davidson to somehow pull off yet another upset.  For Taylor's sake, though, let's hope our players somehow race to quick and easy wins so she doesn't have to play another marathon match--she could use a nap! 

(If Davidson can't go, an already daunting task starts to look grim.  #6 turns from an asset to a liability, and wins at #3-#5 become somewhat less likely.  But the benefit of this match continuing to be pushed back because of weather is it makes it likelier that Davidson will be available to play.)



Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - 2006alum - 05-23-2017

Great preview, ColoradoTree. This one looks really tough, but hopefully that means we can play like we have nothing to lose! We shouldn't be here based on rankings and they already beat us pretty handily once, so swing loose and see what happens! Glad Davidson is getting some extra time today to rest.

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - TheFarm07 - 05-23-2017

Thanks ColoradoTree for your detailed analyses and preview as well. Was pumped to see that we pulled off the win against Ohio State last night. I don't know why the NCAA has the teams playing matches on 3 consecutive days. Hopefully, with the weather delays, Davidson can play and we'll work some more underdog magic for another trophy to add to the collection!

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - fullmetal - 05-23-2017

Thanks for the writeup ColoradoTree.  It's been quite an achievement for this team to make it to the finals from a #7 seed--let's see if they can capture #114!

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - StanfordMatt - 05-23-2017

ColoradoTree, any insight into UF's Brooke Austin? Austin is a junior who played exclusively at #1 singles for the Gators her first two years. She was dominant, too, going 33-6 over that time with All-American and SEC POY honors in 2016. She was ranked #4 in the nation when Carol Zhao beat her 6-4, 6-4 in the Round of 16 last as part of Stanford's 4-3 "upset." By any definition, she was one of the nation's top players.

This season, however, she's not ranked at all and has primarily has occupied one of the back courts for the Gators. As you note, she beat Lampl at #4 in February and looks likely to play at #5 today. She doesn't appear to be injured because she's played the whole season, unless it's just been some sort of long-term nagging injury that caused the Florida coaches to drop her several spots. I tried to research what may have happened online but came up with nothing. Just seems very odd to me.

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - oldalum - 05-23-2017

I am pessimistic about #5. Austin played successfully at #1 for the preceding 2 years, she was a 2-time SEC player of the year, and was NCAA doubles champion with Keegan last year. Something has obviously brought her down this year to be playing at 5, but she is extremely experienced, savvy, and good, and she has a power game. I think Arbuthnott is a definite underdog against her. We have got to win at 2 and 6, and win 2 out of three of doubles point, Davidson, or Lampl. I think we are going to lose the doubles point (losing at 2 and 3, if not also 1), so I think Davidson and Lampl are must-wins. Lampl has struggled with finishing this tournament, not sure why, but this would be an excellent time for her to come through!

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-23-2017

(05-23-2017, 01:00 PM)StanfordMatt link Wrote:ColoradoTree, any insight into UF's Brooke Austin? Austin is a junior who played exclusively at #1 singles for the Gators her first two years. She was dominant, too, going 33-6 over that time with All-American and SEC POY honors in 2016. She was ranked #4 in the nation when Carol Zhao beat her 6-4, 6-4 in the Round of 16 last as part of Stanford's 4-3 "upset." By any definition, she was one of the nation's top players.

This season, however, she's not ranked at all and has primarily has occupied one of the back courts for the Gators. As you note, she beat Lampl at #4 in February and looks likely to play at #5 today. She doesn't appear to be injured because she's played the whole season, unless it's just been some sort of long-term nagging injury that caused the Florida coaches to drop her several spots. I tried to research what may have happened online but came up with nothing. Just seems very odd to me.

You know, that's a great question.  I don't follow other schools closely enough to see how Austin's star could have fallen so far, but from a quick look at the Florida schedule, it looks like she didn't play in the fall season, so she may have had an injury. Woolcock played #2 much of last year, so her rise to #1 makes sense.  Neel is a freshman this year, and has played really well, so I can see her vaulting an idle Austin.  But it seems strange that her level would have dropped to the point where she's struggling to beat players like Lampl.  (That said, if she missed the fall season and has played much of the season at #5, it's not at all surprising that she'd fail to climb up the rankings, as she wouldn't be facing many ranked opponents at #5 and thus wouldn't get the kind of quality wins that would get you climbing higher.)  One possibility is that the Florida team is so deep and even that there's a lot of internal competition, which might explain the periodic roster shuffling that they do.  If they have 5 players that are Top 50 caliber, then even a temporary dip in form or injury could drop someone a few slots.  Heck, Keegan played #3 for most of last year and was ranked in the Top 30.  But she has alternated this year between playing #6 or not playing at all, so it's fair to say that the Florida lineup is volatile. 

But Austin is a question mark, it's true.  Who shows up this evening?  The top 10 player from last year and the year before?  Or the diminished player from this year?  I hear you, oldalum, and some pessimism is fair.  I don't know why her level has dropped this year, but I'll assume that who she's been this year is who she'll be this evening.  If that's true, then Arbuthnott has a good chance to win that one.  (The scenario where she recaptures last year's form this evening isn't very fun to envision, so I don't want to do it!)

Davidson's form was also a question mark earlier this year, and even when she had recovered from illness, Lele put her back in the lineup at #3 instead of putting her back at #1, pushing Doyle and Lord each up a spot.  I figured that was a temporary thing to allow her to get back into form after being sick, but then she stayed there.  Heck, I assumed Taylor would start crushing people at #3, but that didn't happen.

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - BobK - 05-23-2017

Lee from down 2 to down 1



Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-23-2017

Folks, we may play outside today!  Forecast in Athens is currently merely cloudy; there isn't supposed to be more rain until after midnight. 

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - BobK - 05-23-2017

I gather outside means tv ?

Colorado Tree you are a treasure. Thanks for all your analysis

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - StanfordMatt - 05-23-2017

(05-23-2017, 02:55 PM)BobK link Wrote:Colorado Tree you are a treasure. Thanks for all your analysis

+1

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - BostonCard - 05-23-2017

(05-23-2017, 02:19 PM)BobK link Wrote:Lee from down 2 to down 1

I'm thinking you are in the wrong thread...

BC

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-23-2017

Hey, thanks, folks!  I mean, if you're going to pick another Stanford sport to follow closely, the returns on picking women's tennis are pretty great.  Easy money.  The win the title about every other year, they're always in the mix, and their history and toughness means you'll always be proud of their effort.  They have a preternatural ability to win the close ones, too. 

Last year was a particularly insane example of that: 4-3 over #19 Texas A&M just to get out of the NCAA second round (with Davidson winning a three-set match to clinch); 4-3 over #1 Florida in the R16 (with Davidson winning a three-set match to clinch); 4-3 over #10 Michigan in the QFs (Doyle winning a third-set tiebreaker to clinch); 4-2 over #6 and defending champion Vanderbilt in the SFs (with Lampl winning in three to clinch, though if she'd lost, Davidson was tied 2-2 in her third set, so she probably just would have won a third-set tiebreaker anyway); and 4-3 over #12 Oklahoma State in the final (with, wait for it, Davidson clinching the match 7-5 in the third). 


Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - Viking_Guy - 05-23-2017

Actually, for those with more knowledge of history:

If Stanford wins, would this be the first time that a team has beaten the #2, #3, and #1 seeds in the same tournament?

VG


Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-23-2017

While we're waiting for the match to start, here's a quick preview of next year's team:

Departures: Taylor Davidson, Caroline Doyle
Newcomers: Michaela Gordon, Janice Shin

Gordon, out of Los Altos Hills, has been the #1 overall recruit at various points, but her ranking has dipped as her schedule appears to have lightened.  Shin, from Houston, TX, is another top-10 recruit (ranked as high as the #8 recruit).  Both are "blue chip" recruits, per tennisrecruiting.net.  Fun fact: all the scholarship players on Stanford's roster right now were either blue chips or international players that don't get the same recruiting attention.  So, in case you were worried about Stanford falling off a bit after losing Davidson and Doyle, fear not.  We just reload. 

One other scholarship note: tennis can have 8 scholarships, but there are only 7 scholarship athletes on the roster right now, and that'll hold true next year as well.  It seems as if the coaches wanted to keep a spot open to fill in next year's class to even out the classes, since there won't be any seniors on next year's roster.  Three juniors (Lord, Lampl, Yee), two sophomores (Higuchi, Arbuthnott), and two freshmen (Gordon, Shin). 

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - StanfordMatt - 05-23-2017

(05-23-2017, 03:28 PM)ColoradoTree link Wrote:While we're waiting for the match to start, here's a quick preview of next year's team:

Departures: Taylor Davidson, Caroline Doyle
Newcomers: Michaela Gordon, Janice Shin

Gordon, out of Los Altos Hills, has been the #1 overall recruit at various points, but her ranking has dipped as her schedule appears to have lightened.  Shin, from Houston, TX, is another top-10 recruit (ranked as high as the #8 recruit).  Both are "blue chip" recruits, per tennisrecruiting.net.  Fun fact: all the scholarship players on Stanford's roster right now were either blue chips or international players that don't get the same recruiting attention.  So, in case you were worried about Stanford falling off a bit after losing Davidson and Doyle, fear not.  We just reload.

Just imagine if CiCi hadn't decided to go pro at the 11th hour!

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - oldalum - 05-23-2017

(05-23-2017, 03:17 PM)Viking_Guy link Wrote:If Stanford wins, would this be the first time that a team has beaten the #2, #3, and #1 seeds in the same tournament?

I don't know, but in 2012 we beat the 1, 3, 4, and 5 seeds in winning the title.

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - Viking_Guy - 05-23-2017

FYI, ESPNU is showing the men's final on the indoor courts, with UVa leading UNC 3-2, and one match at match game in the Cavs' favor.

Hopeful sign for coverage of the women.

VG

EDIT: UVa just won the championship by finishing up the #5 singles match above.  We'll see what happens now.  Yay for multiple computers with multiple streams!

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - BobK - 05-23-2017

Florida wins the first doubles match

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - BobK - 05-23-2017

Florida up 1-0 winning the doubles