STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - Printable Version

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RE: STAN vs ND GAME THREAD - M T - 10-17-2022

(10-16-2022, 09:24 PM)needle Wrote:  Um, this is how Connelly describes his post-gam win expectancy:

Quote:What is postgame win expectancy? It is my look at the key, predictive stats produced by a given game -- a lot of which ends up in the machine that produces my SP+ rankings. In essence, it takes these key stats, tosses them into the air and declares, "With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time."

Paywalled link: https://www.espn.com/chalk/insider/insider/story/_/id/32867917/college-football-luckiest-unluckiest-teams-2021-fate-not-nebraska-side

Stanford's post-game win expectancy was 23% against ND and 26% against Oregon State.

For the stats in the game itself (which generally favored Stanford), a Stanford win expectancy of 23% makes no sense.  

So, it must be that he is saying, add the stats from the game into all the other stats he has, and then again predict the outcome of the game (already played).   That would be perhaps interesting early in the season, but not useful at this time of the season (except for maybe changing between 49% and 51%) since the prior games' stats will have the most weight.

On the other hand, if he threw out all stats except for this one game, then his number might be interesting.  But if he did that and came up with 23%, something is broken.

So, I'd say:  "Who cares?  While the pregame expectancy was relevant, the postgame expectancy is meaningless."

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pcgoode - pcgoode - 10-17-2022

Watched the game Sunday evening. Bonner had the game of his life. I hadn’t been impressed with any of performances before this game.

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RE: pcgoode - msqueri - 10-17-2022

(10-17-2022, 07:20 AM)pcgoode Wrote:  Watched the game Sunday evening. Bonner had the game of his life. I hadn’t been impressed with any of performances before this game.

As the president of the Ethan Bonner Hater Club for the last five years let me rise above it/eat crow to be the one to point out that PFF currently grades Bonner as the top player on our defense (#7 overall as the offense has better-grading players).

My assumption is that this is Bonner's last year but I do wonder if the success he's tasted could entice him back for a sixth year. Given trends in our program (in more ways than one) as well as the tight scholarship math, I'd be quite surprised by that. But he is a classic case of somebody the NCAA would give not just six but seven years of eligibility to if he wanted it.

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