Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 10-03-2022

This Kherson offensive seems to have continued which is very encouraging to see.  Rumors of a few settlements either surrounded or close to surrounded, including Davydiv Brid.  Would be nice to finally break that town, as it's inflicted heavy losses on the Ukrainians.  

[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1576961434595971072?s=20&t=iZe24LZOwGdmd57wzN4Zeg]https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1576961434595971072?s=20&t=iZe24LZOwGdmd57wzN4Zeg[/tweet]

[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1576946352679886848?s=20&t=cDAzkfFDhxwpE7Evj-xbJQ]https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1576946352679886848?s=20&t=cDAzkfFDhxwpE7Evj-xbJQ[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 10-03-2022

Apologies if this New Yorker article on Russia's filtration camps has already been posted. It describes in great detail how Ukrainian civilian men are treated by the occupying Russian military.

Inside Russia’s “Filtration Camps” in Eastern Ukraine | The New Yorker

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-03-2022

Stanford alumni event next month on the war in Ukraine over zoom.

https://groups.stanford.edu/events/30823?mkt_tok=ODg0LUZTQi0zMDcAAAGHPljaSA_fav6SmeC9JanktJ_gaC44kme_GEg3uQZE7cP2ZspJzu4yG5VMNhtPbNU0-h6v3yQsOYgVo-FvqjAsIjTNlXuN5DfXhC2UmsYICe8

I think registration is free.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 10-04-2022

Former CIA director and retired army general David Petraeus in a report:

Quote:Petraeus said that he had not spoken to national security adviser Jake Sullivan on the likely US response to nuclear escalation from Russia, which administration officials have said has been repeatedly communicated to Moscow.

He told ABC News: “Just to give you a hypothetical, we would respond by leading a Nato – a collective – effort that would take out every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and every ship in the Black Sea.”

I can't imagine he is speaking without having good knowledge that his statement wouldn't be counter-productive.  An unofficial suggestion of a strong response, and one that undoes the 2014 borders.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 10-04-2022

(10-03-2022, 12:11 PM)Treefence Wrote:  This Kherson offensive seems to have continued which is very encouraging to see.  Rumors of a few settlements either surrounded or close to surrounded, including Davydiv Brid.  Would be nice to finally break that town, as it's inflicted heavy losses on the Ukrainians.  

[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1576961434595971072?s=20&t=iZe24LZOwGdmd57wzN4Zeg]https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1576961434595971072?s=20&t=iZe24LZOwGdmd57wzN4Zeg[/tweet]

[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1576946352679886848?s=20&t=cDAzkfFDhxwpE7Evj-xbJQ]https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1576946352679886848?s=20&t=cDAzkfFDhxwpE7Evj-xbJQ[/tweet]

This is a dynamic situation, so by the time I post this I'm sure it's already outdated, but the success of Ukrainian forces has made Russia pull back to avoid encirclement, and now all positions on the inhulets river, north east of where the bridgehead was, have been liberated.  This is a total collapse of the north east Kherson front.  

[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1577265181679570945?s=20&t=sg3azHEjC2Z_UIN5BOlVuw]https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1577265181679570945?s=20&t=sg3azHEjC2Z_UIN5BOlVuw[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-04-2022

(10-04-2022, 05:20 AM)Treefence Wrote:  This is a dynamic situation, so by the time I post this I'm sure it's already outdated, but the success of Ukrainian forces has made Russia pull back to avoid encirclement, and now all positions on the inhulets river, north east of where the bridgehead was, have been liberated.  This is a total collapse of the north east Kherson front.  



[url=https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1577265181679570945?s=20&t=sg3azHEjC2Z_UIN5BOlVuw]https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1577265181679570945?s=20&t=sg3azHEjC2Z_UIN5BOlVuw

Indeed it is a collapse, but from the Russian point of view, if you are going to collapse, this is the place to do it :-). Ukraine can do real damage if they keep going down the right bank of the river. However, they want to destroy/capture the Russians in the area. That is going to put them in a situation where they either slow down to gobble up the Russians or risk having Russians on their flank. Trying to do both is beyond their means, unless the Russians run so fast there is nobody to "mop up". If I were the Russian commander, that is what I would try to do. This would create a greater concentration of Russians closer to Nova Kakhovka, which should be the Russian ne plus ultra.

The advance from Davydiv Brid is more direct, and if they could get a collapse there it could get them to Nova Kakhovka faster. That would also create a wide envelopment of the Russians on the west bank. It seems the Russians are doing better against that attack, but as we have seen, that can change fast. Let's hope it does!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 10-04-2022

(10-04-2022, 06:58 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(10-04-2022, 05:20 AM)Treefence Wrote:  This is a dynamic situation, so by the time I post this I'm sure it's already outdated, but the success of Ukrainian forces has made Russia pull back to avoid encirclement, and now all positions on the inhulets river, north east of where the bridgehead was, have been liberated.  This is a total collapse of the north east Kherson front.  



[url=https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1577265181679570945?s=20&t=sg3azHEjC2Z_UIN5BOlVuw]https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1577265181679570945?s=20&t=sg3azHEjC2Z_UIN5BOlVuw

Indeed it is a collapse, but from the Russian point of view, if you are going to collapse, this is the place to do it :-). Ukraine can do real damage if they keep going down the right bank of the river. However, they want to destroy/capture the Russians in the area. That is going to put them in a situation where they either slow down to gobble up the Russians or risk having Russians on their flank. Trying to do both is beyond their means, unless the Russians run so fast there is nobody to "mop up". If I were the Russian commander, that is what I would try to do. This would create a greater concentration of Russians closer to Nova Kakhovka, which should be the Russian ne plus ultra.

The advance from Davydiv Brid is more direct, and if they could get a collapse there it could get them to Nova Kakhovka faster. That would also create a wide envelopment of the Russians on the west bank. It seems the Russians are doing better against that attack, but as we have seen, that can change fast. Let's hope it does!

It seems to me that the Ukraine should go all out to reach Nova Kahovka before the Russians.  While its possible the Russian forces under attack from Davydiv Brid could some how maneuver enough force to hit the Ukraine flank along the river, it would be extremely difficult.  If the Ukraine gets to the bridge first the Russian forces are in a world of hurt.  So as you say the best thing Russian forces  can probably do is to try and withdraw to Nova Kahovka as fast as possible while maintaining some semblance of command and control.  A big challenge for the commanders and troops on  both sides.  HIMARS can probably interdict most of T2207 running down to Nova Kahovka.  Would not be a fun retreat.
Edit: Just saw an article claiming that since the mobilization was announced 700,000 Russians have left the country. I would assume that they are from the better off group and were contributors to Russian society. What kind of impact is removing a 1,000,000 people going to have on the economy and society? Number seems awfully large to me.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 10-04-2022

Goose, that all makes sense, but I think one more thing that could have a drastic effect is when Ukraine is within standard artillery range of all Dnipro crossings.  Up until now, Ukraine has had to use HIMARS attacks to hit the bridges, which have mostly put them out, but there's a big limit to those.  As the lines are drawn now, Ukraine is about 40km from the Nova Kakhovka bridge.  Soon enough they can hit the bridge, and any surrounding pontoon bridges with enormous amounts of artillery, and rely on partisan networks in the area to scout for them.  I'd guess they won't be able to make a very long stand if Ukraine is able to push just a bit further, with those troops knowing they are losing all forms of escape besides swimming. As per usual, I could be wrong, I often am.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-04-2022

(10-04-2022, 07:32 AM)GK3 Wrote:  It seems to me that the Ukraine should go all out to reach Nova Kahovka before the Russians.  While its possible the Russian forces under attack from Davydiv Brid could some how maneuver enough force to hit the Ukraine flank along the river, it would be extremely difficult.  If the Ukraine gets to the bridge first the Russian forces are in a world of hurt.

I think your statements are totally correct. The problem with going all out down the right bank of the river would not be forces from Davydiv Brid and points further south on the road, but rather forces already in the area between the road (T2207) and the river. There are lots of small towns on the T0403 (and nearby area) and any one of them could impose a delay or cut the road after the spearhead passes. Ukraine would have a very long flank exposed to whatever is in that area. They undoubtedly know how much is there and will evaluate the risk.

Quote:So as you say the best thing Russian forces  can probably do is to try and withdraw to Nova Kahovka as fast as possible while maintaining some semblance of command and control.  A big challenge for the commanders and troops on  both sides.  HIMARS can probably interdict most of T2207 running down to Nova Kahovka.  Would not be a fun retreat.

No it wouldn't be an easy one. If Russia was fighting smart they would try to stop the retreat well to the northwest of the river and keep the P47/M14 road open. They would be wise to retreat "early" and leave a blocking force on the T2207, possibly at/near Charivne. If they think they can hold there, give it a try. Even if they can't, this would delay the Ukrainians and let the Russians get organized north west of Kozats'ke. Undoubtedly they won't do that.

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(10-04-2022, 08:12 AM)Treefence Wrote:  Goose, that all makes sense, but I think one more thing that could have a drastic effect is when Ukraine is within standard artillery range of all Dnipro crossings.  Up until now, Ukraine has had to use HIMARS attacks to hit the bridges, which have mostly put them out, but there's a big limit to those.  As the lines are drawn now, Ukraine is about 40km from the Nova Kakhovka bridge.  Soon enough they can hit the bridge, and any surrounding pontoon bridges with enormous amounts of artillery, and rely on partisan networks in the area to scout for them.  I'd guess they won't be able to make a very long stand if Ukraine is able to push just a bit further, with those troops knowing they are losing all forms of escape besides swimming. As per usual, I could be wrong, I often am.

You are IMHO quite correct. The big advantage conventional artillery has over HIMARS is persistence. HIMARS can deliver a devastating blow, but then it must go someplace to reload. Conventional artillery can't deliver anywhere near as much ordinance in a few seconds, but it can deliver ordinance steadily for a long time. It is reloaded in situ. Ukraine getting within 15-20km or so of the bridge would mean that their artillery can interdict the bridge 100% of the time and free the HIMARS to go wreak havoc elsewhere. They will still have to move their 155mm stuff around to prevent the Russians from targeting it, but by now they know how to do that :-).

I would not hazard a guess at if/when the Russian troops on the right bank of the river attempt to retreat across the river. If they do, lots of them will be lost to Ukrainian artillery/HIMARS. If a general retreat begins with no rear guard/blocking force, the Ukrainians can also make a dash for the bridges. Given the alternatives, if I were a junior commander (the senior ones all having already "relocated" themselves) on the right bank, I would give my guys the option of surrender in place. The odds of getting across the river in an uncontrolled rout are just too high.

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(10-04-2022, 12:29 AM)M T Wrote:  Former CIA director and retired army general David Petraeus in a report:

Quote:Petraeus said that he had not spoken to national security adviser Jake Sullivan on the likely US response to nuclear escalation from Russia, which administration officials have said has been repeatedly communicated to Moscow.

He told ABC News: “Just to give you a hypothetical, we would respond by leading a Nato – a collective – effort that would take out every Russian conventional force that we can see and identify on the battlefield in Ukraine and also in Crimea and every ship in the Black Sea.”

I can't imagine he is speaking without having good knowledge that his statement wouldn't be counter-productive.  An unofficial suggestion of a strong response, and one that undoes the 2014 borders.

I can imagine he is speaking based on what he "knew" when he was head of the CIA. However, I am virtually certain nobody who actually is involved in the decision making process today would ever talk to him.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/how-david-petraeus-avoided-felony-charges-and-possible-prison-time/2016/01/25/d77628dc-bfab-11e5-83d4-42e3bceea902_story.html
He is pretty much poison for anybody with a clearance to speak with.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 10-04-2022

Early rumors, from Russian source, are that Snihurivka was liberated by Ukraine.  If this is true, the Russian collapse might not be limited to the North Eastern section.  I believe this is the main stronghold by the western side of the inhultes river.  We seem to be back in the zone where realistic rumors often turn out to be true, but again just a rumor for now.  
[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1577418355614814213?s=20&t=sg3azHEjC2Z_UIN5BOlVuw]https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1577418355614814213?s=20&t=sg3azHEjC2Z_UIN5BOlVuw[/tweet]

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Also this, again unconfirmed rumor...

 [tweet][url=https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1577414510188453888?s=20&t=sg3azHEjC2Z_UIN5BOlVuw]https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1577414510188453888?s=20&t=sg3azHEjC2Z_UIN5BOlVuw[/tweet]

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That was fast, wow! 

[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1577426159955955712?s=20&t=sg3azHEjC2Z_UIN5BOlVuw]https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1577426159955955712?s=20&t=sg3azHEjC2Z_UIN5BOlVuw[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-04-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1577421332697927680?s=46&t=iYrG0k_pPxzIRHKRFdMrGw[/tweet]

Always a possibility that all the OSINT people have the same faulty primary source, but more often than not, they are correct.

As they say, “big, if true”.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 10-04-2022

Agreed, some of the more reputable people are waiting on confirmation, an likely won't get confirmation for a bit due to what time it is there, but hopefully it is confirmed in the morning.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-04-2022

If https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1577272582336032770 is correct, Ukraine solved the T2207-T0403 and any Russians in the middle by advancing down ALL THREE. No idea if this is reliable, and no idea how long it will take, but it appears Ukraine is well on the way to Beryslav.

Taking Snihurivka is great but it is kind of in the middle between Kherson and Nova Kokhovka. On one hand, encouraging the Russians to just stay there would allow them to be "in the bag" when Kherson falls. On the other hand, pressure on Russia anywhere makes them have to divide their already inadequate manpower even wider. Lets just hope Ukraine doesn't spread themselves out too far. Get the bridges and thereby be behind the Russian retreat. Wider envelopment and no way to retreat.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-04-2022

It looks like they are just going to clear everything between the Inhulets’ and Dnipro rivers, no?  Then advance on Kherson from Snihurivka and Kyselivka while pressuring the sole bridge out.

BC

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Interesting poll:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/yudingreg/status/1576960898538668032?s=46&t=sEeCHXaRzjTkA1k-lFGw9w[/tweet]

To those putting forth the idea that Putin enjoys widespread approval for the war, it looks like a majority of Russians would support Putin shooting puppies.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-04-2022

This is a pretty remarkable video, where we see some Russian troops trying to save their friends whose vehicle is busted, and several appear injured. The rescuing vehicle takes a direct hit from an ATGM but remains functional. Later in the video you can see a very near miss from another ATGM as they are escaping.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1577387758594637824?s=20&t=hPOwf30kwLPqtOpq_dpEoA[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-04-2022

(10-04-2022, 05:37 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  It looks like they are just going to clear everything between the Inhulets’ and Dnipro rivers, no?  Then advance on Kherson from Snihurivka and Kyselivka while pressuring the sole bridge out.



BC

Possibly that is what the Ukrainians will do, in fact probably. I can't help it, I think like an American. The "correct" solution is to deploy a covering force fixing the Russian on the right bank of the Dnipro in place. Leave them to rot. They are not getting supplies and fuel, they can't go anywhere. Then, bounce the river at Kherson and Nova Kakhovka. Move armor to the left bank. This prevents the Russians from retreating and also totally dislocates the Russian plan to defend the rest of the Kherson Oblast. You move quickly, much quicker than they can react.

The problem with clearing the west bank is that it will take lots of time and casualties. The Russians have shown they know how to run. This is devaluing the Ukraine's successes because too many Russians get away. Yes, they leave lots of material behind, but Putin is already short troops. Losing 25K or so as POWs is worse for him than 12K KIA, the rest run away. Putin was probably hoping he could hold the west bank through the winter. Worst case, he would get 50% of his troops out and have a defensible river line to retire behind. He can then build up his strength in Kherson without worrying that he will be attacked. It may be he gets that worst case outcome. My hope would be it is worse than that and Ukraine gets bridgeheads on the east bank from which it can strike a large force of Russians in Khrson Oblast that aren't prepared for that. That is how you beat Russians.

OK, back to reality :-). Hopefully, it will be a great victory. I don't think Ukraine is ready for two simultaneous thunder runs yet. After they get a bit more training and their four more HIMARS, 15K more troops trained in the EU, and whatever NASAMS we finally deliver to them, maybe they will be in the spring :-).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-04-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1497035826139738125?s=46&t=j4h5qNi9xNJpsVx3aXewjw[/tweet]

Considering that thread goes back to the first *day* of what was supposed to have been a three day special operation, it looks to have been gloriously prescient.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 10-04-2022

(10-04-2022, 05:37 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  To those putting forth the idea that Putin enjoys widespread approval for the war, it looks like a majority of Russians would support Putin shooting puppies.

BC

Putin is doing worse than shooting puppies.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 10-05-2022

Elite as related to what, exactly?

I mean if Russia's military is akin to Stanford Football, Stanford's starting defensive line is the "elite" among available Stanford footballers, but not pretty much anyone else at their level of competition. Is this "elite" unit for Russia really so compared to say the United States, Britain, Germany, China, or Ukraine? In any case, this probably doesn't bolster Russia's melting military.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MoscowTimes/status/1577615982717198340[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 10-05-2022

(10-04-2022, 06:57 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  [tweet]https://twitter.com/markhertling/status/1497035826139738125?s=46&t=j4h5qNi9xNJpsVx3aXewjw[/tweet]

Considering that thread goes back to the first *day* of what was supposed to have been a three day special operation, it looks to have been gloriously prescient.

BC

BC - Thanks for sharing those Tweets.  As you say it was very prescient.  Reports on ISW indicate that Russian manpower defending the area North of Kherson is extremely depleted.  One unsubstantiated piece said some villages along the corridors of the Ukrainian attacks are being defended by no more than one or two men.  Seems hard to believe but the increasingly rapid progress being made along roads 1505, 2207 and 403 tends to indicate that Russian command is doing its best to retreat in order and establish new defensive positions much closer to Kherson.
If they can really push down 2207 they might be able to reach the bridge before those retreating down 403 can get there, enabling them to do what Goose suggest, squeeze those left along 403 up against the river with no place to go and seize the bridge.  At the same time an attack down 1505 directly at Kherson would limit the Russian ability to send anyone North to try and support Russian forces in trouble there.  
Obviously none of this may happen.  Do the Russians have enough men, equipment and ammunition to continue to try and establish any kind of defense in depth?  Do the Ukrainians enough of the same to persevere? 
The Ukrainian opportunities abound but to paraphrase Field Marshal von Moltke, "no plan survives first contact".  The Russians will get their say in the matter one way or the other.

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