Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-08-2022

(10-08-2022, 08:40 AM)GK3 Wrote:  Does anyone have any idea how long the damage will impede the flow of manpower and supplies to the Russian Forces in Kehrson?  Some reports already have them stretched pretty thin in this regard.  It could make a new Ukrainian attack more effective.

Short term, not much effect. Long term probably depends on how long the railway is out. If no trains for a week, that would make a BIG difference. It is also probable that there will be speed restrictions after the damage is repaired.

Quote:Also for any engineers, was the fire possibly hot enough to have a significant impact on the structural integrity of the railroad bridge.  Some reports say Russians don't have enough trucks or drivers to resupply by road and absolutely have to have the railroad running.

No way to know if the bridge structure was damaged. Probably it was not, but it is not impossible. I would expect the tracks may have to be replaced as the fire probably warped them. I assume the ties are concrete. If they are not, they will probably need replacement. I expect the railway will not be out of action long, probably a day or so.

Rail transport moves freight much more economically (per ton/mile) than road transport. This is especially true of bulk commodities like fuel. The US would collapse in short order if the western transcons went down for very long. Moving very heavy items like tanks and very wide items is also much easier by rail. While Russia's army does lack drivers and trucks relative to say the US army, no army likes to fight without rail transport as a "backbone". When they are forced to do so, logistics always becomes a serious problem, from north Africa in WW II to Iraq recently.

Crimea brings the added problem that it's significant population relies on rail transport to bring in the daily necessities. That is why Russia so quickly spent so much money to build that bridge immediately after they annexed Crimea. The "land bridge" wasn't available then because Ukraine wouldn't let them use it. It isn't available now, because Ukraine controls the railway by fire. Crimea can be supplied by sea, but it is much more expensive and quite a bit slower. Loading and unloading ships takes time and Russia didn't develop any big container ports in Crimea. Russia needs that railway big time.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-08-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/1578740474952974336?s=61&t=ex7INdy9d4-SJhaeRZOXMQ[/tweet]

That was fast!  I’m not a stamp collector, but it would be kind of cool to collect the Ukrainian war commemoration stamps.  I think there is also one commemorating the commissioning of the Moskva submarine.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-08-2022

Local authorities are saying the rail line will be open by the end of the day. That is plausible, but probably with speed restrictions until the track is replaced/verified. The single traffic lane is open, but trucks are being instructed to plan on using the ferry from now on. Apparently the single ferry still in operation isn't running and there are big queues to leave Crimea. A second ferry is supposedly being brought in.

Reportedly there is panic buying of essentials and the government has put in place some forms of rationing. Whether this is temporary or indefinite is not yet known. Probably this is a temporary response to panic buying, but it may be there is worse damage than is being publicly acknowledged.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/panic-grips-ukraine-russian-occupied-115100274.html

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - rudruff - 10-08-2022

(10-08-2022, 09:59 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(10-08-2022, 08:40 AM)GK3 Wrote:  Does anyone have any idea how long the damage will impede the flow of manpower and supplies to the Russian Forces in Kehrson?  Some reports already have them stretched pretty thin in this regard.  It could make a new Ukrainian attack more effective.

Short term, not much effect. Long term probably depends on how long the railway is out. If no trains for a week, that would make a BIG difference. It is also probable that there will be speed restrictions after the damage is repaired.

Quote:Also for any engineers, was the fire possibly hot enough to have a significant impact on the structural integrity of the railroad bridge.  Some reports say Russians don't have enough trucks or drivers to resupply by road and absolutely have to have the railroad running.

No way to know if the bridge structure was damaged. Probably it was not, but it is not impossible. I would expect the tracks may have to be replaced as the fire probably warped them. I assume the ties are concrete. If they are not, they will probably need replacement. I expect the railway will not be out of action long, probably a day or so.

Rail transport moves freight much more economically (per ton/mile) than road transport. This is especially true of bulk commodities like fuel. The US would collapse in short order if the western transcons went down for very long. Moving very heavy items like tanks and very wide items is also much easier by rail. While Russia's army does lack drivers and trucks relative to say the US army, no army likes to fight without rail transport as a "backbone". When they are forced to do so, logistics always becomes a serious problem, from north Africa in WW II to Iraq recently.

Crimea brings the added problem that it's significant population relies on rail transport to bring in the daily necessities. That is why Russia so quickly spent so much money to build that bridge immediately after they annexed Crimea. The "land bridge" wasn't available then because Ukraine wouldn't let them use it. It isn't available now, because Ukraine controls the railway by fire. Crimea can be supplied by sea, but it is much more expensive and quite a bit slower. Loading and unloading ships takes time and Russia didn't develop any big container ports in Crimea. Russia needs that railway big time.

Not to mention that military cargo often doesn't fit in shipping containers. It often requires a different type of cargo ship.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-08-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1578816856047374337?s=61&t=ex7INdy9d4-SJhaeRZOXMQ[/tweet]

Not sure how we know for sure that it was a truck bomb, but if it was…

BC

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As they say “Big, if true”, but Bremmer is a smart, well-sourced guy, so I have no reason to dispute his statement.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1578800235543146496?s=61&t=ex7INdy9d4-SJhaeRZOXMQ[/tweet]

Let’s face it, nobody wants to back a loser.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-08-2022

(10-08-2022, 11:16 AM)rudruff Wrote:  Not to mention that military cargo often doesn't fit in shipping containers. It often requires a different type of cargo ship.

Very true. However, I don't think Russia has a container port in Crimea anyway. They bring it all in the "old fashioned" way, general dry cargo-breakbulk ships, and they much prefer rail if available. Loading and unloading cargo ships with cranes is much slower than containers. They do have RO-RO ferries, but I don't think they accept tanks :-).

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As of now, we don't know what kind of a bomb was involved. There are reasons to suspect it was a truck bomb, but there are also problems with that theory. For some reason the people on twitter seem to think the fact the truck came from Russia towards Ukraine make a truck bomb less probable. This is nonsense. Either way it would be a clandestine job from Russian controlled territory. Others are saying it was a unmanned submersible/low observable boat. The problem with any floating object being the source is that the explosive force dissipates rapidly with distance. The bridge is fairly far above the water. Further, any water-based explosion would generate a very visible wave, which nobody has seen on film.

I would not discount the possibility that the bomb was planted manually on the bridge superstructure by an Special Forces group. This is the kind of thing they are trained to do. In any case, it will be a while before we know for sure, if we ever do.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 10-08-2022

Video surfaced about an hour ago, might get debunked but if real, I’d assume this would mean Ukraine could do it again?

[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/samnewstr/status/1578836960395038720?s=46&t=gVdxx0sRtGe5c09Ncj7hWg]https://twitter.com/samnewstr/status/1578836960395038720?s=46&t=gVdxx0sRtGe5c09Ncj7hWg[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-08-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/evanhill/status/1578831598027276288?s=46&t=gHZwyLG_cBqzH8h4Ql_3_A[/tweet]

Looks like a truck bomb.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 10-08-2022

Lot of theories about how it was done. To me, Occam’s razor suggests it’s a lot easier to pay a few Russian guards to let a truck full of TNT pass by a checkpoint then get a big boat past Russian defenses.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-08-2022

(10-08-2022, 03:14 PM)gocard14 Wrote:  Lot of theories about how it was done. To me, Occam’s razor suggests it’s a lot easier to pay a few Russian guards to let a truck full of TNT pass by a checkpoint then get a big boat past Russian defenses.

True. You don't even have to pay them. Hide the TNT under the "regular" load. If the truck comes through frequently, nobody is going to look too hard. The poor guy driving the truck undoubtedly didn't know what he was carrying IMHO. Could have been a suicide bomber, but I doubt it. You needed a "regular" so nobody asks questions.

There are some "issues" however. The section of bridge that fell into the sea doesn't look damaged on the travel surface. It also appears to have moved up and sideways. An explosion from above doesn't do that. There may be an explanation, but it isn't clear yet IMHO.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 10-08-2022

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1578816745485529088?s=20&t=RU9rXLfuKOjfYGFLq3lgZA[/tweet]

Russia is running trains now, but maybe not fully loaded yet. 

And the images available don't show any burn marks on undersurface, only the top surface, so seems like the truck bomb really is the etiology. 

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1578853573278191616?s=20&t=MT62HeJt2kqT70yNHLDr0Q[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - rudruff - 10-08-2022

(10-08-2022, 01:25 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(10-08-2022, 11:16 AM)rudruff Wrote:  Not to mention that military cargo often doesn't fit in shipping containers. It often requires a different type of cargo ship.

Very true. However, I don't think Russia has a container port in Crimea anyway. They bring it all in the "old fashioned" way, general dry cargo-breakbulk ships, and they much prefer rail if available. Loading and unloading cargo ships with cranes is much slower than containers. They do have RO-RO ferries, but I don't think they accept tanks :-).

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As of now, we don't know what kind of a bomb was involved. There are reasons to suspect it was a truck bomb, but there are also problems with that theory. For some reason the people on twitter seem to think the fact the truck came from Russia towards Ukraine make a truck bomb less probable. This is nonsense. Either way it would be a clandestine job from Russian controlled territory. Others are saying it was a unmanned submersible/low observable boat. The problem with any floating object being the source is that the explosive force dissipates rapidly with distance. The bridge is fairly far above the water. Further, any water-based explosion would generate a very visible wave, which nobody has seen on film.

I would not discount the possibility that the bomb was planted manually on the bridge superstructure by an Special Forces group. This is the kind of thing they are trained to do. In any case, it will be a while before we know for sure, if we ever do.

I don't buy the submersible. You could create a lot more mischief underwater than carry a bunch of explosives up to the top of the bridge and set it off. Also, it looks like a long way out to the middle of the bridge for special forces. The logistics of getting a bomb that big that far out on the bridge without a vehicle aren't easy. I have seen a couple of Seals carry a large outboard motor up the hatch of a submarine. They did it but they were breathing hard by the end.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-08-2022

We haven’t heard much since the recapture of Lyman about the Eastern front, but Ukraine has been making steady advances and I suspect that at some point we will start hearing about battles for Kreminna and Svatove, but I expect battles for them shortly.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/tmarcoh/status/1578532222348689408?s=46&t=xdCsOVg832iRYR47_jtPaw[/tweet]

Quite the progression of maps.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 10-09-2022

Despite the fact that Ukrainians are dying and suffering unimaginably in large numbers, this thread remains more palatable than any of the threads about the Stanford football program. Hope is a powerful emotion and can help people overlook a lot.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 10-09-2022

(10-08-2022, 01:25 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(10-08-2022, 11:16 AM)rudruff Wrote:  Not to mention that military cargo often doesn't fit in shipping containers. It often requires a different type of cargo ship.

Very true. However, I don't think Russia has a container port in Crimea anyway. They bring it all in the "old fashioned" way, general dry cargo-breakbulk ships, and they much prefer rail if available. Loading and unloading cargo ships with cranes is much slower than containers. They do have RO-RO ferries, but I don't think they accept tanks :-).

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As of now, we don't know what kind of a bomb was involved. There are reasons to suspect it was a truck bomb, but there are also problems with that theory. For some reason the people on twitter seem to think the fact the truck came from Russia towards Ukraine make a truck bomb less probable. This is nonsense. Either way it would be a clandestine job from Russian controlled territory. Others are saying it was a unmanned submersible/low observable boat. The problem with any floating object being the source is that the explosive force dissipates rapidly with distance. The bridge is fairly far above the water. Further, any water-based explosion would generate a very visible wave, which nobody has seen on film.

I would not discount the possibility that the bomb was planted manually on the bridge superstructure by an Special Forces group. This is the kind of thing they are trained to do. In any case, it will be a while before we know for sure, if we ever do.

I have to think if it was special forces they would have focused the explosion on the rail side of the bridge to drop the railways for the reasons you’ve mentioned. Maybe that’s not possible with man portable quantities of explosive.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-09-2022

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/05/us/politics/ukraine-russia-dugina-assassination.html

Sounds like Ukraine authorized the car bomb that killed the daughter of the Russian nationalist.

I think notwithstanding the horrors that Russia has inflicted, this was a bad idea.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-09-2022

(10-09-2022, 01:02 PM)gocard14 Wrote:  I have to think if it was special forces they would have focused the explosion on the rail side of the bridge to drop the railways for the reasons you’ve mentioned. Maybe that’s not possible with man portable quantities of explosive.

It is also a factor of how the bridge is constructed. The rail portion supports a roadbed that has an integral concrete "cap". The roadbed sits on the cap (at least it looks that way, and this is a pretty "standard" approach). This cap is solid reinforced concrete and is pretty rigid. There are I beams under the cap, but the cap holds them in position.

The highway sits on I beams that are mostly held in place by their own weight. Similarly to what happened to the Bay Bridge in Loma Prieta,  a lateral shock can dump an entire span, which is what seems to have happened. Obviously, a truck bomb can only explode on the road bridge, but no matter how the explosion happened, road bridges are generally less resilient than rail bridges.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 10-09-2022

(10-09-2022, 04:19 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/05/us/politics/ukraine-russia-dugina-assassination.html

Sounds like Ukraine authorized the car bomb that killed the daughter of the Russian nationalist.

I think notwithstanding the horrors that Russia has inflicted, this was a bad idea.

BC

As I gather, the target was her father, a/k/a "Putin's brain" or "Putin's Rasputin." Both he and her daughter vocally supported the invasion of Ukraine. Both had been sanctioned by the U. S. and the West for their roles, and Alexander Dugin was sanctioned for his role in annexing Crimea.

He has advocated war with Ukraine since 2008: Russian nationalist thinker Dugin sees war with Ukraine - BBC News

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 10-09-2022

(10-08-2022, 10:26 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  That was fast!  I’m not a stamp collector, but it would be kind of cool to collect the Ukrainian war commemoration stamps.  I think there is also one commemorating the commissioning of the Moskva submarine.

BC

The design that was shown on the news tonight was different.  Maybe it is tongue in cheek?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 10-10-2022

Start rant:
Please spare us the "Russia is now retaliating against Ukraine for the bombing of a bridge" narrative. How about "the bridge was bombed in retaliation for Russia's illegal attack, occupation, relentless terrorism and war crimes against Ukraine" instead? IOW, Russia isn't bombing Ukrainian cities today because the bridge was bombed. Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure have been targeted by Russia for months. Russia was going to strike those cities, bridge bombing or not, especially since now the guy responsible for the Aleppo, Syria destruction is now apparently in charge of the Ukraine offensive for Russia's military.
End rant.

Three cheers for David Frum.  He's 100% on the mark with these comments:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1579219211465129984[/tweet]

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The Russian bot and troll farms are hard at work today, claiming Zelensky is the REAL terrorist. Russia reprising it's one note again: It's all NATO's fault.  Yawn.

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