Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 10-20-2022

I'm note quite ready to jump the conclusion this Tweeter has, but we really might be seeing Russians evacuating Kherson proper, and all of the North/West bank of the Dnipro river. In previous withdrawals, Russians haven't had such a tough escape route, I really hope this turns into a complete Russian failure, but time will tell.  

[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1583194323411034113?s=20&t=P4o9tMg-8zyDrwuI52ny2g]https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1583194323411034113?s=20&t=P4o9tMg-8zyDrwuI52ny2g[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 10-20-2022

I hope that Liz Truss’ pathetic 6-week tenure does not have negative indirect effects on Ukraine. My understanding from recent articles is that Rishi Sunak, who leads the race to succeed Truss, is not such a strong supporter of aid to Ukraine.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-20-2022

(10-20-2022, 01:38 PM)Treefence Wrote:  I'm note quite ready to jump the conclusion this Tweeter has, but we really might be seeing Russians evacuating Kherson proper, and all of the North/West bank of the Dnipro river. In previous withdrawals, Russians haven't had such a tough escape route, I really hope this turns into a complete Russian failure, but time will tell.  

url=https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1583194323411034113?s=20&t=P4o9tMg-8zyDrwuI52ny2g]https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1583194323411034113?s=20&t=P4o9tMg-8zyDrwuI52ny2g

I really hope they don't evacuate. If they do evacuate, I hope Ukraine jumps the river and cuts their line of retreat. Russia has made lots of mistakes in Kherson. We really want Ukraine to make them pay for them. Russia has flirted with disaster in this are for a long time. If they get out without the disaster, that would be a big disappointment. It appears they are also pulling back around Nova Kakhovka.

At the end of the day, it appears probable Ukraine will own the right bank of the river no matter what happens. It would be "very nice" if Ukraine could significantly damage the Russian military as it retreats. They were in a position to do that. They have certainly done damage, but they are well short of "what could have been" at this point. If Russia is able to pull back without significant damage, it is imperative that Ukraine establish fairly deep bridgeheads on the left bank. Giving a mostly intact Russian military a quiet winter on the left bank of the river is a recipe for problems in the spring.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 10-20-2022

Re: Kherson, I saw a report that said the civilian evacuation means Russians basically forcing civilians to move with the Russian military so Ukraine won't attack them - and make them pay for their mistakes - while retreating.

I don't know how accurate this is, but if true, sounds like another war crime to me.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-20-2022

(10-20-2022, 03:48 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Re: Kherson, I saw a report that said the civilian evacuation means Russians basically forcing civilians to move with the Russian military so Ukraine won't attack them - and make them pay for their mistakes - while retreating.

I don't know how accurate this is, but if true, sounds like another war crime to me.

It would be if that is what happens. One argument against this approach by Russia is that their capacity to move equipment and personnel across the river is limited. They are using pontoon bridges and ferries. Taking along extra people cuts into their capacity and slows them down, exactly what they don't want. However, they might still do it.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 10-20-2022

(10-20-2022, 03:25 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(10-20-2022, 01:38 PM)Treefence Wrote:  I'm note quite ready to jump the conclusion this Tweeter has, but we really might be seeing Russians evacuating Kherson proper, and all of the North/West bank of the Dnipro river. In previous withdrawals, Russians haven't had such a tough escape route, I really hope this turns into a complete Russian failure, but time will tell.  

url=https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1583194323411034113?s=20&t=P4o9tMg-8zyDrwuI52ny2g]https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1583194323411034113?s=20&t=P4o9tMg-8zyDrwuI52ny2g

I really hope they don't evacuate. If they do evacuate, I hope Ukraine jumps the river and cuts their line of retreat. Russia has made lots of mistakes in Kherson. We really want Ukraine to make them pay for them. Russia has flirted with disaster in this are for a long time. If they get out without the disaster, that would be a big disappointment. It appears they are also pulling back around Nova Kakhovka.

At the end of the day, it appears probable Ukraine will own the right bank of the river no matter what happens. It would be "very nice" if Ukraine could significantly damage the Russian military as it retreats. They were in a position to do that. They have certainly done damage, but they are well short of "what could have been" at this point. If Russia is able to pull back without significant damage, it is imperative that Ukraine establish fairly deep bridgeheads on the left bank. Giving a mostly intact Russian military a quiet winter on the left bank of the river is a recipe for problems in the spring.

I definitely agree with you, it would be a big time missed opportunity if Ukraine doesn't make Russia pay for their failures in Kherson.  They could potentially capture thousands of Russians, kill thousands of Russians, a mixture of both, not push them out of Kherson, or let them off the hook.  My guess is that a group of Russians are captured, but less than a thousand, but many are killed. I also think Russia blows all the bridges completely, and ends up leaving a bunch of heavy equipment.  

While it would be a missed opportunity, it's still an extremely significant and strategic victory, to be able to reclaim the only regional capital they have lost in the Feb 24th Russian campaign, and liberate another 10k square kilometers. I think it would also give Ukraine the opportunity to move a bunch more people to the Zaporizhzhian front and potentially start an offensive there, and potentially push the Russians back to the Pre Feb 24th boundaries. Granted Russia will also have a bunch more troops to spread around, but I think they lose significantly more men and equipment than Ukraine from the Kherson withdrawal.  I also wonder if losing Kherson could also lead much more questioning of Putin back in Russia, because this would be after their mobilization, and they can't pretend Kherson proper wasn't part the part they annexed. 

All that to say, despite it potentially being a missed opportunity, I think it'll still be a great victory for Ukraine and a brobdingnagian boost of morale going into winter.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 10-20-2022

On a more personal level, the BBC has released this 16 minute video by and of a family that was in Kherson for the first 3 months of occupation until they made it out of the area temporarily captured by Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSaxduOxogU

It will make you wish that "There is no going back" is used on the tombstone of the installed leader.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-20-2022

(10-20-2022, 05:50 PM)Treefence Wrote:  I definitely agree with you, it would be a big time missed opportunity if Ukraine doesn't make Russia pay for their failures in Kherson.  They could potentially capture thousands of Russians, kill thousands of Russians, a mixture of both, not push them out of Kherson, or let them off the hook.  My guess is that a group of Russians are captured, but less than a thousand, but many are killed. I also think Russia blows all the bridges completely, and ends up leaving a bunch of heavy equipment.

Undoubtedly the scope and scale of Russian losses will figure greatly in how this campaign is evaluated by history. I suspect we aren't going to get much hard data on that unless the results are so spectacular they can't be ignored. There are two scenarios that are being pushed that are a bit alarming. One of them is that Russia will leave a bunch of the newly conscripted troops on the west bank to function as a "rear guard" and pull back the intact "professional" troops. Trying to do that could blow up in their face if Ukraine can quickly push through the rear guard and catch the rest of the Russian units moving. If Russia pulls this off, it would be a big advantage to them. The other is that Russia intends to blow the Kakhovka dam, thereby flooding much of the Kherson Oblast near the river. It would be a disaster for Ukraine. It also would be a disaster for Crimea as it would destroy it's water supply, but who knows how crazy the Russians may be.  

Quote:While it would be a missed opportunity, it's still an extremely significant and strategic victory, to be able to reclaim the only regional capital they have lost in the Feb 24th Russian campaign, and liberate another 10k square kilometers.

There I part company with you. It would be a politically significant victory in any event. If it damages the Russian army significantly in manpower and equipment (manpower probably being more important) it could be a significant strategic and tactical victory for Ukraine. If OTOH it is a bunch of conscripts and Russia retreats across the river without Ukraine being hot on their heels, it is a significant tactical victory for Russia. Russia was in a horrible tactical position. To get out of it with reasonable losses and with Ukraine stuck on the right bank is the best Russia could hope for. If they get that, it isn't good news for Ukraine. I do think Ukraine intends to contest the rest of the Oblast over the winter. They have said as much. They need to be on the left bank to do this and the time to do that is while Russia is retreating. If they wait, Russia will dig in and it will be an opposed river crossing. Not good.

Quote:I think it would also give Ukraine the opportunity to move a bunch more people to the Zaporizhzhian front and potentially start an offensive there, and potentially push the Russians back to the Pre Feb 24th boundaries. Granted Russia will also have a bunch more troops to spread around, but I think they lose significantly more men and equipment than Ukraine from the Kherson withdrawal.  I also wonder if losing Kherson could also lead much more questioning of Putin back in Russia, because this would be after their mobilization, and they can't pretend Kherson proper wasn't part the part they annexed.

As far as the Zaporizhzhian front goes, take a look at https://twitter.com/HerrDr8/status/1579270462445858816. Ukraine would have to supply their advance across the river in an area where there are no rail lines and few roads. There is some good news in that it appears the region is fairly lightly held. It also appears (according to some reports) that Russian troops are also pulling back in that area. As the article says, it is a big ask. OTOH if Ukraine is driving the Russians in Kherson Oblast, they should press on there. They have the river there too, but they have rail lines and the M14 to move supplies in. There are also bridges that can be fixed if Russia is prevented from blowing them. If possible, IMHO that is the way to go. It cuts the land bridge, cuts off the water supply to Crimea, and directly threatens Crimea. Putin's worst nightmare. It is also always better to attack an enemy you have just defeated and disorganized than one that is in prepared positions. We shall see.

Quote:All that to say, despite it potentially being a missed opportunity, I think it'll still be a great victory for Ukraine and a of immense proportions boost of morale going into winter.

For the population at large, it will boot morale in all cases. For the general staff, if the Russians get their tactical best outcome, it will be a major downer. They know what they intended to accomplish and will have not succeeded. Ukraine was on a roll, and that outcome would be a bummer for their military.

The real serious issue at the moment is whether Russia does indeed intend to blow the dam. IMHO the NATO countries need to make it clear to Putin that if he does that, it will be considered similar to using a nuclear weapon. Ukraine has asked us to do this. If Russia doesn't intend to to this, it is a nop. It they do, they have to know it is going to really cost them. The damage of such an action would indeed by comparable to a tactical nuclear weapon, maybe worse because of the land area affected. It also would basically make it impossible for Ukraine to attack across the resulting flooded area for a very long time.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Mick - 10-21-2022

(10-19-2022, 11:18 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  [tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1577509007094431745?s=61&t=VMG2QOlsNeKOWcUb7KtZ0Q[/tweet]

Russia’s population is 144 million, so this represents 0.5%

BC

That we know of...

A like percentage of American men would be about 1.6 mms. If we're talking about 18-35 year old males, that would be about 5% of the overall figure of 31 million.

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TreesAndBirds - TreesAndBirds - 10-21-2022

(10-21-2022, 11:30 AM)Mick Wrote:  

(10-19-2022, 11:18 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  [tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1577509007094431745?s=61&t=VMG2QOlsNeKOWcUb7KtZ0Q[/tweet]

Russia’s population is 144 million, so this represents 0.5%

BC

That we know of...

A like percentage of American men would be about 1.6 mms. If we're talking about 18-35 year old males, that would be about 5% of the overall figure of 31 million.

I suspect on a “quality” basis its even higher, that Russia is losing a disproportionate percentage of their “best and brightest”.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-21-2022

(10-19-2022, 08:51 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  

(10-19-2022, 08:46 PM)Goose Wrote:  The US and NATO are now to some degree being hoisted on their on petard. We claim immunity from Russian action while weapons are in transit via NATO countries. We also concede that Ukraine (and NATO) cannot attack on "Russian territory". We can't do anything to Iran that we wouldn't let Russia do to Poland. Really cuts down on our options.

One thing we can do is tell Russia that for any Iranian weapon they use that has a published range of X km, we will feel free to deliver weapons to Ukraine with equal range. Given that Iran claims the Shahed-136 has a published range of several hundred (actually thousand, but who cares?) km, ATACMS is now "like for like". They get Shahed-136s from Iran, Ukraine gets ATACMS from us.

Well, Russia is violating a UN Security Council resolution that it approved, but trying to enforce it might be a challenge.

Your proposed solution aligns with what I said earlier: continued use of long range drones from Iran to attack Ukranian civilian infrastructure is all the justification we need to give Ukraine ATACMS.

we should also figure out where in Crimea the Iranian trainers/pilots are and make that the first target.

BC

It’s happening…
[tweet]https://twitter.com/amichaistein1/status/1583424600830267392?s=61&t=H-UzR_x1VXNZsumSNQPzyg[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-21-2022

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3595906-german-irist-already-integrated-into-ukraines-air-defense.html
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/first-wreckage-of-ukraines-new-iris-t-slm-surface-to-air-missile-found
https://english.nv.ua/nation/germany-transfers-trml-4d-radar-system-to-ukraine-50278456.html

These articles make it clear Ukraine did not receive the radar with the IRIS-t they originally received. They have it now. The radar appears to be a good unit, although it is obviously brand new and untried. In many cases the Germans may have to tell the Ukrainians "It's not a bug, it is a feature". It is in the same class as the GhostEye for NASAMS. Whatever use they got out of their IRIS-t to this point had to be by firing the missiles in "sic em" mode. With the drones, if you can visually see them, that can work.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 10-21-2022

The sanctions finally worked.  You just had to figure out where to hurt them.

27-Sep. Netflix Unsubscribed Services in Russia: The Streaming Giant Says it lost 700,000 accounts

4 -Oct: Forbes Russia is reporting that around 700,000 Russians have left the country since mobilization was announced

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 10-22-2022

Tons of rumors coming out that Russia is abandoning their forward positions around Kherson, and Ukraine is advancing.  Also lots of reports of widespread looting, as well as evacuations of supplies via ferries and pontoon bridges.  We will see what rumors are true, but again it's pointing at the liberation of Kherson soon.  I might have to get some watermelons soon to celebrate.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-22-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1583631538050068480?s=61&t=3h-HJx6Z66KF4cUkxUffJQ[/tweet]

This seems like it would be bad.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-22-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/axios/status/1583952545479000064?s=46&t=4yxS2olRzaZRHFwpL881eQ[/tweet]

Cause the last time Germany cozied up to a dictatorship, it worked out so well for them.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 10-22-2022

The Ukrainians made this video for Goose.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1583975105465503746?s=46&t=4yxS2olRzaZRHFwpL881eQ[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-22-2022

(10-22-2022, 11:20 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1583631538050068480?s=61&t=3h-HJx6Z66KF4cUkxUffJQ

This seems like it would be bad.

BC

Indeed it will be, if they do it. As I previously posted, the NATO countries have to make it clear to Putin that such an action would be equivalent to using a tactical nuclear weapon and will be treated as such. It will flood the city of Kherson, apparently. It will also turn the river area into a swamp, at least for many months, as well as destroying several smaller towns downstream from Kherson. It isn't a total win for Russia because it compromises the water supply to Crimea, but I guess they may figure that is a lost cause already. If Russia does this and gets away with it (no retaliation by NATO), Ukraine will be in a difficult position. The ability to retake the rest of the Oblast and threaten Crimea will be gone. Their 3rd largest city will be under water. The ship building and related industries will be pretty much destroyed. It will take the pressure of the Russian forces in the area and render them essentially invulnerable. This is obviously the opposite of Ukraine's intentions.

There are reports that Russia is releasing some water from the dam at present, which is being turned into a big deal by some on the internet. It probably isn't. This time of year it is prudent to have extra storage capacity for the rain that is now falling upriver and locally. One might think if they intend to blow the dam, doing this would make no sense, but maybe they are just following the SOP.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 10-22-2022

Previously Ukraine seemed to be ok with letting Russian soldiers escape and picking them off as they fled.

With the threat of the dam being blown, maybe it would be worth the risk of trying to pin them in place, cutting off their retreat. Would Russia still blow the dam if their soldiers were in the flood plain?  (I don’t know the geography well enough to know if that is possible)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 10-22-2022

(10-22-2022, 05:19 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  The Ukrainians made this video for Goose.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1583975105465503746?s=46&t=4yxS2olRzaZRHFwpL881eQ

BC

Maybe, but Goose would be yelling at the "12 hungry wolves". They do no good behind the tank. They need to maneuver and force the guys in the trench to take cover. If the guys in the trench have a Javelin (or equivalent), you need infantry to keep their heads down. The infantry doesn't need to assault the trench. The tank can do that very effectively (as it did). The infantry needs to suppress the ATGMs. Apparently the Russians didn't have any.

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(10-22-2022, 05:36 PM)M T Wrote:  Previously Ukraine seemed to be ok with letting Russian soldiers escape and picking them off as they fled.

With the threat of the dam being blown, maybe it would be worth the risk of trying to pin them in place, cutting off their retreat. Would Russia still blow the dam if their soldiers were in the flood plain?  (I don’t know the geography well enough to know if that is possible)

The Russians will be in the flood plain if any of them are on the right bank when/if the dam is blown. The best bet for Ukraine is probably to focus their efforts on capturing the dam well before they go after Kherson city. Ukraine has been expending lots of effort in that direction, but so far they haven't broken through. If Russia intends to blow the dam, they can do it. Baring some kind of special forces attack behind Russian lines to take the explosives off the dam (and hold to keep them off), any direct attack gives too much warning. The idea of going there first is that it would force the Russians to kill their own troops who were still in Kherson or on the west bank elsewhere if they blow the dam.

That is one of the reasons I have been advocating Nova Kakhovka as the schwerpunkt for quite a while. Earlier along, there were lots of Russians on the right bank far from the river. Writing them off wouldn't be feasible, so blowing the dam wasn't feasible. Now, with the front on the right bank much nearer the river, it may have become feasible for the Russians. If they can actually evacuate the right bank, it certainly will be. NATO needs to make this a political impossibility for Putin. He may not really intend to do it, but as a precaution he should be made aware of such a high cost to him that he won't do it.

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