Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 11-12-2022

(11-12-2022, 07:19 AM)Hurlburt88 Wrote:  

(11-11-2022, 09:38 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(11-11-2022, 07:24 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  At the risk of posing a rhetorical question, what do the Russians stand to gain from continuing to fight this war?  They can lay waste to Ukrainian towns and kill Ukrainian people.  At a of immense proportions cost to Russia.  But it does not seem like the Russians will net natural resources, intact cities, or anything else of value.

It never did make sense on any level. It is a total vanity operation by Putin. There are lots of things Ukraine could do for Russia, and visa versa. There are natural economic synergies between the two countries that were nurtured by many years under a common flag. Yelsin actually thought both Belarus and Ukraine would vote to stay in the Russian Federation for those reasons. However, after Russia's actions in 2014 and subsequently, none of that is possible. Putin is a fool.

Goose, let me offer one thread of logic from Russian standpoint for this tragic effort--and as I do this know that despite what I lay out I think it was and is a horrible mistake on many levels.  Russia has been invaded from Europe many times over the centuries, which is enabled by lack of barriers such as mountains or large water bodies.  THus, Russia desires a "buffer" of land in protection of Russia proper.  Having NATO on its doorstep is something Putin always detested, and may have increasingly wanted to reverse before he leaves power--and he is probably watching his clock.  Superimpose that core belief with the reality of Russia's demographic decline, and he may have adopted a mentality of, "If we don't do this now, Russia is condemned to strategic vulnerability for the foreseeable future".  Almost now or never.  And yes, vanity definitely plays in.

NATO is the ultimate straw man for Putin and anyone else in Russia trying to make it into the boogeyman.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 11-12-2022

Not sure if this is confirmed or not, but assuming it's true, this is has to be the biggest capture yet...


[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1591388101741801473?s=20&t=Ac5IZiGQNTsCbFqK4OFFhQ]https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1591388101741801473?s=20&t=Ac5IZiGQNTsCbFqK4OFFhQ[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 11-12-2022

An S-300 would be awesome. Especially since Russia is using them in ground attack mode, perhaps Ukraine may be able to capture a cache of missiles. Definitely a very important capture.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1591446332350267392?s=20&t=GIBNQL3u1dVXT8E9zclokQ[/tweet]

Black Sea Fleet not even really a fleet in being at this point. Small task force in being at best.

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Ok this is my favorite liberation video. Ukrainian Babushkas, they're just like me.  Nothing better than seeing Russian tanks burn.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1591473124188782593?s=20&t=qNgkWsoxDv_o4PxVVXrjTw[/tweet]

Lots more captured/destroyed Russian equipment and captured Russian soldiers today. Russia may have gotten the bulk of their forces out but Ukraine got their pound of flesh.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 11-12-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/papierkoerbchen/status/1591466514376523779?s=46&t=L9tcSipouDcR9pcp6rOxVg[/tweet]

LOL, click through for the answer.

BC

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I title this one: “adventures of a Russian conscript” (*narrator* it does not have a happy ending for the Russian conscripts)

[tweet]https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1591488510804262912?s=46&t=L9tcSipouDcR9pcp6rOxVg[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 11-12-2022

(11-12-2022, 08:41 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  

(11-12-2022, 07:19 AM)Hurlburt88 Wrote:  

(11-11-2022, 09:38 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(11-11-2022, 07:24 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  At the risk of posing a rhetorical question, what do the Russians stand to gain from continuing to fight this war?  They can lay waste to Ukrainian towns and kill Ukrainian people.  At a of immense proportions cost to Russia.  But it does not seem like the Russians will net natural resources, intact cities, or anything else of value.

It never did make sense on any level. It is a total vanity operation by Putin. There are lots of things Ukraine could do for Russia, and visa versa. There are natural economic synergies between the two countries that were nurtured by many years under a common flag. Yelsin actually thought both Belarus and Ukraine would vote to stay in the Russian Federation for those reasons. However, after Russia's actions in 2014 and subsequently, none of that is possible. Putin is a fool.

Goose, let me offer one thread of logic from Russian standpoint for this tragic effort--and as I do this know that despite what I lay out I think it was and is a horrible mistake on many levels.  Russia has been invaded from Europe many times over the centuries, which is enabled by lack of barriers such as mountains or large water bodies.  THus, Russia desires a "buffer" of land in protection of Russia proper.  Having NATO on its doorstep is something Putin always detested, and may have increasingly wanted to reverse before he leaves power--and he is probably watching his clock.  Superimpose that core belief with the reality of Russia's demographic decline, and he may have adopted a mentality of, "If we don't do this now, Russia is condemned to strategic vulnerability for the foreseeable future".  Almost now or never.  And yes, vanity definitely plays in.

NATO is the ultimate straw man for Putin and anyone else in Russia trying to make it into the boogeyman.

Putin is presiding over a shrinking population.  Conquering someone else and putting their population with yours make you look better.  Very difficult for a country to grow economically when there is a declining demand for products.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BigJohn043 - 11-12-2022

(11-12-2022, 07:19 AM)Hurlburt88 Wrote:  

(11-11-2022, 09:38 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(11-11-2022, 07:24 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  At the risk of posing a rhetorical question, what do the Russians stand to gain from continuing to fight this war?  They can lay waste to Ukrainian towns and kill Ukrainian people.  At a of immense proportions cost to Russia.  But it does not seem like the Russians will net natural resources, intact cities, or anything else of value.

It never did make sense on any level. It is a total vanity operation by Putin. There are lots of things Ukraine could do for Russia, and visa versa. There are natural economic synergies between the two countries that were nurtured by many years under a common flag. Yelsin actually thought both Belarus and Ukraine would vote to stay in the Russian Federation for those reasons. However, after Russia's actions in 2014 and subsequently, none of that is possible. Putin is a fool.

Goose, let me offer one thread of logic from Russian standpoint for this tragic effort--and as I do this know that despite what I lay out I think it was and is a horrible mistake on many levels.  Russia has been invaded from Europe many times over the centuries, which is enabled by lack of barriers such as mountains or large water bodies.  THus, Russia desires a "buffer" of land in protection of Russia proper.  Having NATO on its doorstep is something Putin always detested, and may have increasingly wanted to reverse before he leaves power--and he is probably watching his clock.  Superimpose that core belief with the reality of Russia's demographic decline, and he may have adopted a mentality of, "If we don't do this now, Russia is condemned to strategic vulnerability for the foreseeable future".  Almost now or never.  And yes, vanity definitely plays in.

FWIW, the NATO issues are a smoke screen.  This war is very logical if you are Putin.  This is the answer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkggBdyJN4g

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 11-12-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/otregub/status/1591558779933720576?s=61&t=QRCo6GyAjKbaROnY9pmPlA[/tweet]

Seems like an odd way to greet conquering fascists.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 11-12-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/billbrowder/status/1591273892470890496?s=61&t=QRCo6GyAjKbaROnY9pmPlA[/tweet]

Lol, they turn quickly.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 11-13-2022

This is quite something, on many levels. Though there is a lot of delusion and wishful thinking based on believing your own bullshit, even these Russian propagandists are raising some truthful questions on the minds of many. I think the most important one is if Kherson is Russian, why is Russia leaving it?

My question is, at what point - due to the unable to be hidden from view realities - do the Russian people stop trusting the government? I mean these guys obviously can't say they no longer trust the government or they will be off the air, but it's also clear they know they can't completely deny reality because as much as Russia tries to suppress truth, there are so many sources of information that can't be controlled, the truth about Russian failures in Ukraine, and the collateral damage to the country as a result, is seeping out and being felt.

Russians supporting Putin at this point would be like Stanford fans wanting David Shaw to get a 10 year contract extension about now. The fever has to break at some point. When will it?  

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1591529223763673091[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - JohnR34231 - 11-13-2022

(11-13-2022, 06:41 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  This is quite something, on many levels. Though there is a lot of delusion and wishful thinking based on believing your own bullshit, even these Russian propagandists are raising some truthful questions on the minds of many. I think the most important one is if Kherson is Russian, why is Russia leaving it?

My question is, at what point - due to the unable to be hidden from view realities - do the Russian people stop trusting the government? I mean these guys obviously can't say they no longer trust the government or they will be off the air, but it's also clear they know they can't completely deny reality because as much as Russia tries to suppress truth, there are so many sources of information that can't be controlled, the truth about Russian failures in Ukraine, and the collateral damage to the country as a result, is seeping out and being felt.

Russians supporting Putin at this point would be like Stanford fans wanting David Shaw to get a 10 year contract extension about now. The fever has to break at some point. When will it?  

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1591529223763673091[/tweet]

Nice to know that the U.S. isn't the only country that has prominent people who are detached from reality.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 11-13-2022

Yeah, there was another video that shows just how detached from reality the Russians are.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/wartrackers/status/1591441227068723200?s=61&t=6zIA53QUwa41_uVjMaSfIQ[/tweet]

They’re just going to land some transports in Gotland, and set up some S-400’s and then the Baltics are Russian.

HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!  Hold on a second, let me catch my breath, HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!

I believe the term is “high on his own supply,” though looking at the commentator, I’m thinking he knows he’s spouting BS and is doing his damnedest to say it with a straight face.  At times, you can see the smirk creeping in.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 11-13-2022

(11-13-2022, 06:47 AM)JohnR34231 Wrote:  Nice to know that the U.S. isn't the only country that has prominent people who are detached from reality.

Can't share that sentiment. The number of "prominent people" who are detached from reality has grown rapidly in the past few years and these mutually contradictory realities can easily lead to massive miscalculations.

IMHO asking the question "Do the Russians trust their government?" reflects a misunderstanding of Russian history. Of course the Russians don't "trust" their government. Their view has (probably correctly) always been that their government is composed of other Russians who are looking out for their own best interests. If the shoe was on the other foot, all Russians would do the same. You can "trust" only when your interests and the government's interests are aligned, and that is often hard to determine. Just don't make yourself an obvious "problem" for the government and try to get by as best you can. Trust nobody, not even your family. Conversely, don't expect them to "trust" you.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 11-13-2022

Speaking of not making yourself an obvious problem for the government, Bill Browder, the person who speculated about Putin’s motives in the video linked above, has more than his share of personal grievances against Putin and the current Russian government.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Browder

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 11-13-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/thestudyofwar/status/1591922734589779969?s=61&t=6zIA53QUwa41_uVjMaSfIQ[/tweet]

This map puts things into perspective.  Ukraine has come a long way, and recaptured substantial amounts of territory that Russia took in the early parts of the war, but a lot is left.  I wonder what the Ukrainians will go after next.  Maybe keep pushing to Svatove and Kreminna in an effort to liberate the northern portion of Luhansk oblast?  Or, maybe they push south from Zaporizhia in an effort to cut off Crimea?

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 11-13-2022

They there are a few options.  I'd imagine they will continue their push for Svatove and then eventually Starobilsk and hopefully push to the pre Feb 24 Luhansk borders.  There's thoughts of a Melitopol assault, and even further to cut off supply lines to Crimea while the Kerch bridge is being repaired.  I also wonder if ZNPP would be a priority, so potentially provide the country a lot more power before winter fully hits.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 11-13-2022

(11-13-2022, 04:52 PM)Treefence Wrote:  They there are a few options.  I'd imagine they will continue their push for Svatove and then eventually Starobilsk and hopefully push to the pre Feb 24 Luhansk borders.  There's thoughts of a Melitopol assault, and even further to cut off supply lines to Crimea while the Kerch bridge is being repaired.  I also wonder if ZNPP would be a priority, so potentially provide the country a lot more power before winter fully hits.

The safer move is to reinforce the east and go strength on strength where Russia is sending their forces. That risks really bogging down in prolonged stalemate. 

The bolder move is to push south to Melitopol. Pushing down towards Crimea forces the Russians to respond and could pin the forces on the east bank of Kherson. I like it because the supply situation in the South is likely harrier then in the east and politically it puts more pressure on the Russians

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 11-13-2022

The growing push for talks even from Milley may serve a purpose in pushing Ukraine to plan bolder offensives. If they have a sense time is ticking and they have the initiative, they may opt for an offensive in Zaporizhia. But Russia has been preparing for it. Would be difficult no doubt, more so than Kherson.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 11-13-2022

The fact Ukraine did not press and disrupt the Russian retreat from the west bank is now a major liability. Russia attempted to hold the right bank earlier in the year and transferred significant strength to the Kherson Oblast and Crimea. This created a weakness in the north that Ukraine detected and exploited very competently. Russia gave up a lot of territory and suffered significant losses. On top of that, the reinforcements in the south were inadequate to reverse the horrible tactical situation the Russians found themselves in. They finally were forced to do the right thing and evacuate their untenable positions on the right bank.

While it is totally reasonable to believe Ukraine could not move aggressively enough and rapidly enough to encircle and cut off the Russian retreat, it is difficult to believe they were unable to significantly disrupt that retreat. The hope was they could press the Russians, cause them significant losses, and get across the river right on the Russian's heels. It is looking more and more like the Russians pulled it off quite successfully. The assets they extracted are going in to defensive lines along the left bank of the river, and some are going as far as Mariuopl. IMHO it is highly improbable that a Ukrainian force that failed to drive the Russians while they retreated is now going to conduct an opposed river crossing against a prepared defense that is relatively well supplied. That is much more difficult and risky than pursuing a fleeing enemy.

The Russians have done what militarily was advisable months ago, namely shortening their line to one they think they can defend. The Dnipro river is a significant obstacle to the Ukrainian advance in the south that will aid the Russian defense. In the north, Ukraine and Russia are fighting around Svatove and Kreminna. Ukraine is making slow progress there but neither side has a clear-cut tactical advantage. It appears that, for the moment at least, Russia has a line it can defend.

Unfortunately, both Russia and Ukraine seem to be operating in the hope the other side will quit first. Neither side has an obvious way ahead. This is a recipe for stalemate, which I think Ukraine really wants to avoid. Politically, as others have pointed out, this creates a lot of pressure to find a political settlement. IMHO no viable political settlement exists unless Russia is defeated and accepts responsibility for this war. Otherwise, it is just a "truce". Ukraine won't accept the loss of territory along the current lines. They will try to keep fighting, but to do so they need reliable support from the international community. Really too bad Ukraine isn't across the river.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 11-13-2022

With the current weapons and forces that each side has, this does look like it could evolve into a stalemate. But things rarely remain static in war. The US could significantly alter the dynamic with an infusion of new weapons systems, for example.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 11-13-2022

(11-13-2022, 08:26 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  With the current weapons and forces that each side has, this does look like it could evolve into a stalemate. But things rarely remain static in war. The US could significantly alter the dynamic with an infusion of new weapons systems, for example.

You are correct that one can't rely on the correlation of forces to remain the same. There are lots of things that could happen. The effects on Crimea of terminating their water supply and possibly using ATACMS to destroy/interdict the supply lines could be significant, but I very much doubt the US is going to do something like that. It is also possible the effects of sanctions will so erode the Russian economy that they can't maintain their current lines of defense. OTOH Ukraine could collapse because the population is freezing to death with no gas and no power. The problem is that these events are all based on "hope", not something Ukraine or Russia can themselves assuredly make happen. In a similar parallel to WWI, both sides have no obvious way ahead and are just hoping the other side gives up. That lead to a bloody stalemate, which is where this war is headed unless "something" happens.

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