Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 11-13-2022

(11-13-2022, 09:19 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(11-13-2022, 08:26 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  With the current weapons and forces that each side has, this does look like it could evolve into a stalemate. But things rarely remain static in war. The US could significantly alter the dynamic with an infusion of new weapons systems, for example.

You are correct that one can't rely on the correlation of forces to remain the same. There are lots of things that could happen. The effects on Crimea of terminating their water supply and possibly using ATACMS to destroy/interdict the supply lines could be significant, but I very much doubt the US is going to do something like that. It is also possible the effects of sanctions will so erode the Russian economy that they can't maintain their current lines of defense. OTOH Ukraine could collapse because the population is freezing to death with no gas and no power. The problem is that these events are all based on "hope", not something Ukraine or Russia can themselves assuredly make happen. In a similar parallel to WWI, both sides have no obvious way ahead and are just hoping the other side gives up. That lead to a bloody stalemate, which is where this war is headed unless "something" happens.

Rather then attempt a contested river crossing, why not redeploy forces from Kherson offensive to cross the river at Zaporizhia to move south from there (beyond it will take time to reorient forces)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 11-14-2022

I'm looking at ISW's map of the 75k km^2 that Ukraine recaptured.  I recognize that Russia inevitably was going to lose that last 5k km^2 on the right bank of the Dnipro because the wide river made supplying troops untenable.  Other that the last 5k km^2 that Ukraine recaptured, did any of the other parts look inevitable?  Thinking back to mid-March, did we expect Ukraine to control all of the area around Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy within a couple of weeks?  Thinking back to August, did we expect Ukraine to control all of Kharkiv Oblast within a couple of weeks?  If not, why do we think it's unlikely for Ukraine to take more territory now?  I'm not making predictions one way or the other.  I'm just acknowledging the broad scope of what I don't know.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 11-14-2022

This doesn’t seem like it would help morale…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/teoyaomiquu/status/1592211136061272067?s=46&t=NGlyGju8GjHE1SRnqIcXwQ[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 11-15-2022

Some interesting bits of news from this morning. If the Russian ammo/PGM situation is that bad, Ukraine could be poised for big gains, provided they themselves have enough ammo.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1592514741028937728?s=20&t=LqltBDyZPnSwQg-_tRC0Wg[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1592480289422544898?s=20&t=LqltBDyZPnSwQg-_tRC0Wg[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1592518178831495168?s=20&t=LqltBDyZPnSwQg-_tRC0Wg[/tweet]

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Now this could turn the spice meter up a little bit.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1592583150081036288?s=20&t=_m9ZW-IxIpB09-H5vqZp8w[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 11-15-2022

Reflecting on the Russian missiles hitting Poland, I doubt Poland or NATO responds with any lethal force.

I don't think anyone in NATO really has the appetite for enforcing a no fly zone or sending Patriot batteries. But I would not be surprised if Poland increases military aid even more.

And I imagine there will be a stern warning to Russia about this not happening again. Maybe Russia reduces their strikes in western Ukraine. If it happens again, things really could go sideways.

Maybe US decides ATACMS are actually appropriate for Ukraine. NATO probably needs to respond in some fashion so will be interesting to see what that is.

For more on the Russians who program these missiles, here is a typically excellent and entertaining Bellingcat investigation. These guys really are the best in the OSINT biz. Pretty sickening but some entertaining bits too, like the bargaining John.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2022/10/24/the-remote-control-killers-behind-russias-cruise-missile-strikes-on-ukraine/

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And on a personal note, I heartily endorse donating to signmyrocket.com to get equipment to Ukrainian troops.

Just got a photo of my message on an Excalibur shell.



Makes watching videos of Russian tanks blowing up that much better.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 11-15-2022

An interesting idea would be a widespread "Live without electricity for a day" movement to show support for Ukraine in response to the Russian attack on the civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.  No lights, no heater fans, no wifi, ...    Figure your savings and donate to Ukraine support.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 11-15-2022

Hard for me to see this missile in Poland being anything other than an unintended mistake by Russia.  Of course, it's not like Russia gets the benefit of the doubt in terms of being believed. I mean Russia could say the missile in Poland was a mistake and who would really believe them? This is why it's important to understand if there is any plausible reason Russia could find hitting Poland in its interest right now.

Can someone make a case for it being in Russia's interest to provoke NATO into military action against it at this time? This might have made sense in April when Russia's military hadn't yet been degraded too much, but now?




Those screaming "Article 5" seem to be a bit off base.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 11-15-2022

(11-15-2022, 01:29 PM)M T Wrote:  An interesting idea would be a widespread "Live without electricity for a day" movement to show support for Ukraine in response to the Russian attack on the civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.  No lights, no heater fans, no wifi, ...    Figure your savings and donate to Ukraine support.

I think this is a great idea. Need some influencers to pick it up...

Regarding the missiles, certainly it would not have been an intentional provocation. And a reasonable chance it could actually be the remains of a Ukrainian air defense missile.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1592603808634638336?s=20&t=8gg-f5YKgAGGgEkkQuOjMw[/tweet]

In any case Poland will be very upset at their citizens dying. Even if Poland wasn't intentionally targeted, it Russia didn't fire the missile this wouldn't have happened.

More:

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1592615331826405377?s=20&t=KTRst3C5dSpJIMh7RZgXrw[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 11-15-2022

(11-15-2022, 01:46 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  I think this is a great idea. Need some influencers to pick it up...

Regarding the missiles, certainly it would not have been an intentional provocation. And a reasonable chance it could actually be the remains of a Ukrainian air defense missile.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1592603808634638336?s=20&t=8gg-f5YKgAGGgEkkQuOjMw

In any case Poland will be very upset at their citizens dying. Even if Poland wasn't intentionally targeted, it Russia didn't fire the missile this wouldn't have happened.

More:

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1592615331826405377?s=20&t=KTRst3C5dSpJIMh7RZgXrw

It is indeed possible the missiles could be Ukrainian air defense missiles that "went stupid" when they lost target lock. It is also entirely possible that S-300 missiles fired by Russia in a ground attack mode simply missed their programmed target and strayed into Polish airspace. These missiles were not designed for and are not accurate in ground attack mode and missing by miles is entirely possible.

Using these missiles near the borders of NATO is obviously risking something like this, if indeed the missiles were fired by Russia. Unfortunately it may not be possible to determine the "owner" of these missiles unless by chance there are recorded radar tracks. The Russians captured on the order of 20 Ukrainian S-300 systems when they invaded Kherson Oblast. It may be there are known discriminants between Russian S-300 missiles and Ukrainian ones, but captured missiles could have been used for exactly that reason.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 11-15-2022

From what I have read the area in Poland struck would be out of range of any possible Belarussian launching sites if it was S300 in ground attack. And here is further OSINT attribution to a Ukrainian SAM.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1592629251161075712?s=20&t=xHs0scUtteJdSiVXGgNrGw[/tweet]

But then this-

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/alexbward/status/1592633452050141186?s=20&t=KRqGDI01RwpKA7Ylw1L2sw[/tweet]

And this

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1592633659747889152?s=20&t=KRqGDI01RwpKA7Ylw1L2sw[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 11-15-2022

Both a Russian missile and an errant Ukranian one are plausible, and we shouldn't jump to conclusions.  I know, hard.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 11-15-2022

(11-15-2022, 02:43 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  From what I have read the area in Poland struck would be out of range of any possible Belarussian launching sites if it was S300 in ground attack.

I am not really sure what the range of an S300 in ground attack mode may be. I did find this:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-now-firing-s-300-surface-to-air-missiles-at-land-targets-in-ukraine-official
The comment there is the range is 75 miles but that range was limited not by propulsion, but by guidance. I assume the INS accumulated error becomes too large to hit anything reliably beyond that point. The missile may fly much further but it will be wildly inaccurate. Given the very long ranges quoted by Russia for the S-300 in anti-air mode it seems to me nobody actually knows how far the missile can actually go :-).

I think we will all just need to wait and see what hard evidence there is of "whose missile is this?". It wouldn't surprise me at all if neither Ukraine nor Russia can tell us with any certainty what happened to every missile they launched that day. It also assumes that everybody is telling the truth to their superiors, which obviously isn't probable once it becomes clear that a scapegoat is being sought. Hopefully there is a AWACS plot of this engagement that shows the missile tracks. Failing that, it will become difficult to know whose missile it was unless it is a version that is too new for Ukraine to posses. Since Russia has captured Ukrainian assets in full working order there are no definite uniquely Ukrainian missiles. I do not think visa-versa is the case, but it may be.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 11-15-2022

This whole thing calls to mind this little ditty by Tom Lehrer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjDEsGZLbio

*in a German accent* "Once the rockets are up, who cares where they come down.  "That's not my department," says Wernher von Braun."

Always caused a chuckle.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 11-15-2022

(11-14-2022, 12:24 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  I'm looking at ISW's map of the 75k km^2 that Ukraine recaptured.  I recognize that Russia inevitably was going to lose that last 5k km^2 on the right bank of the Dnipro because the wide river made supplying troops untenable.  Other that the last 5k km^2 that Ukraine recaptured, did any of the other parts look inevitable?  Thinking back to mid-March, did we expect Ukraine to control all of the area around Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy within a couple of weeks?

I would say no, we did not expect that. It came to pass because Russia couldn't "close the deal" and take Kyiv. Russia unilaterally withdrew form many areas to reorganize their troops and send them to the Donbas. It wasn't for sure that is what they would decide.

Quote:Thinking back to August, did we expect Ukraine to control all of Kharkiv Oblast within a couple of weeks?

No, we didn't. However if you look at the history on this board, two things were clear: 1) Russia didn't have enough troops to occupy all of Ukraine. As long as Ukraine was resisting, Russia would be spread too thin in places, and 2) Russia was transferring troops from the Dombas area (and anywhere else they could get them, like Georgia) to attempt a salvage of their position on the right bank of the Dnipro. It was sometimes unclear what the Russians were doing, but they were for sure weakening themselves in the north. Ukraine had been saying for months that they were coming for Kherson. It forced the Russians to decide and they decided wrong. They should have just left. Instead, they hollowed out their defenses in the Kharkiv Oblast. We didn't expect that. Russia probably didn't understand the risk they were running. Ukraine made them pay.

Quote:If not, why do we think it's unlikely for Ukraine to take more territory now?  I'm not making predictions one way or the other.  I'm just acknowledging the broad scope of what I don't know.

I think you are exactly right that there are lots of things we don't know. The main difference right now is that there are no obvious places where Russia (or Ukraine for that matter) is "out on a limb". Kherson made Kharkiv happen. The pressure was on and Russia couged it. Russia then had to give up Kherson anyway. They did get out of it in much better shape than they had any reason to expect, but they still got out. What Ukraine needs to do now IMHO is give Russia another chance to make a mistake. The question is simply how and where :-)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Nan3cy - 11-15-2022

(11-15-2022, 06:07 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  This whole thing calls to mind this little ditty by Tom Lehrer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjDEsGZLbio

*in a German accent* "Once the rockets are up, who cares where they come down.  "That's not my department," says Wernher von Braun."

Always caused a chuckle.

BC

“Some speak harsh words of this man of renown, but some say our attitude should be one of gratitude — like the widows and orphans of old London Town, who owe their large pensions to Werner Von Braun.” I heard the WVB sued Lehrer over that song, but lost because he was considered a public figure. (Presumably TL didn’t have to use truth as his defense.)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 11-15-2022

(11-13-2022, 10:36 PM)gocard14 Wrote:  Rather then attempt a contested river crossing, why not redeploy forces from Kherson offensive to cross the river at Zaporizhia to move south from there (beyond it will take time to reorient forces)

They might do exactly that, but it won't be so easy. Here are a couple of articles talking about exactly that approach.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/11/15/the-zaporizhzhia-left-hook-how-the-ukrainian-army-could-get-behind-the-dnipro-river-and-roll-up-thousands-of-russian-troops/?sh=5438badf5ef3
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/14/kherson-fell-quickly-but-ukraines-progress-east-of-the-dnipro-will-be-harder

The problem is that this notional operation requires the fast-moving armored thrust that Ukraine could not/did not deliver in the Kherson area. Maybe it was by choice and they intend to do so now from Zaporizhzhia. Interestingly, Russia is pulling back 15-18 km along the left bank of the river. Seems a bit strange to me. Maybe they want to tempt Ukraine into a less than full throat river crossing??? It could also be they feel their troops are too exposed there, but if so, why did they just build new fortifications there?? Russian tactical behavior is really strange at times.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 11-15-2022

With the reports that Russia is low on artillery shells & men,  I wonder how their stocks are of cruise missiles and such.   I apologize for being ignorant of the situation of Russian area, but are there other (non-Ukraine) areas that might pose a threat to the current (pre-2014) Russian boundaries?   Obviously Russia has plenty of nukes so NATO and China wouldn't be likely to start something.  But I wonder if Russia has realized how far out on a limb they are for another traditional battleground in the coming year, and is reining in but not admitting it.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 11-15-2022

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1592700221095657472?s=20&t=dJOKUJpAYOZnAfXgl5RY8Q[/tweet]

Biden says unlikely to have been fired from Russia.

MT to your question, Russian professional troops are being replaced with conscripts in Georgia, so they can go to Ukraine, similar to what has happened in Syria and Transnistria already. So they are being stretched. No indication of any threat in those areas but if things go really sideways in Russia who knows.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 11-15-2022

(11-15-2022, 06:23 PM)Nan3cy Wrote:  “Some speak harsh words of this man of renown, but some say our attitude should be one of gratitude — like the widows and orphans of old London Town, who owe their large pensions to Werner Von Braun.” I heard the WVB sued Lehrer over that song, but lost because he was considered a public figure. (Presumably TL didn’t have to use truth as his defense.)

According to this interview that Lehrer did with the Sydney Morning Herald, the lawsuit was apocryphal.  

https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/art-and-design/stop-clapping-this-is-serious-20030301-gdgcoz.html

Quote:The widespread rumour that von Braun sued Lehrer proves to be a furphy. "I've heard that a lot, that I have to pay all my royalties for the song to him and so on and so forth. No, that's one of those myths. There is no possible way he could have sued me."

Not a lawyer (so those who are please correct me), but the song is clearly satire, which should be protected: https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/1015/satire

Quote:Court has turned back claims that satire was defamatory
Satire can also come under attack as defamation.

The key distinction between satire and defamation is that satire is not meant to be believed by the audience. Satire is biting, critical, and designed to attack, often with malice. It is almost always false.

For example, in Hustler Magazine v. Falwell (1988), Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist, writing for a unanimous court, stated that a parody depicting the Reverend Jerry Falwell as a drunken, incestuous son could not be defamation since it was an obvious parody, not intended as a statement of fact. To find otherwise, the Court said, was to endanger First Amendment protection for every artist, political cartoonist, and comedian who used satire to criticize public figures.

And yes, as a public figure, von Brown would have had to prove actual malice.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - cardcrimson - 11-15-2022

(11-15-2022, 06:07 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  This whole thing calls to mind this little ditty by Tom Lehrer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjDEsGZLbio

*in a German accent* "Once the rockets are up, who cares where they come down.  "That's not my department," says Wernher von Braun."

Always caused a chuckle.

BC

Having spent a chunk of my life in Huntsville, AL (with the Von Braun Center, etc), that is indeed hilarious.

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