Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Printable Version
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RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - 81alum - 01-29-2024
This is from last April but answers the question about why Trinity Reservoir lagged behind all the others:
https://www.activenorcal.com/despite-historic-rainfall-trinity-lake-remains-dreadfully-low-heres-why/
The Klamath Basin simply did not receive the snow and rain from the atmospheric rivers last year that much of the rest of the state received.
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - newguy - 01-29-2024
(01-29-2024, 12:26 PM)Mick Wrote: Atmospheric rivers on their way for NorCal, one on Friday, one on Sunday, per NYT. A third will hit midweek, and a fourth affecting SoCal will happen by the end of next week.
Atmospheric Rivers Forecast to Bring Rain to California and The West - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
i wonder if that atmospheric river will hit Las Vegas around February 11th.
asking for a friend.
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - cardcrimson - 01-29-2024
(01-29-2024, 12:26 PM)Mick Wrote: Atmospheric rivers on their way for NorCal, one on Friday, one on Sunday, per NYT. A third will hit midweek, and a fourth affecting SoCal will happen by the end of next week.
Atmospheric Rivers Forecast to Bring Rain to California and The West - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
When did storms, or a series of storms, become atmospheric rivers?
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - 2006alum - 01-29-2024
(01-29-2024, 12:53 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:(01-29-2024, 12:26 PM)Mick Wrote: Atmospheric rivers on their way for NorCal, one on Friday, one on Sunday, per NYT. A third will hit midweek, and a fourth affecting SoCal will happen by the end of next week.
Atmospheric Rivers Forecast to Bring Rain to California and The West - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
When did storms, or a series of storms, become atmospheric rivers?
When online news sites needed clickbait headlines to generate traffic about standard weather forecasts... ;)
And isn't the first of these supposed to arrive on Wednesday? At least, the 2 inches of rain predicted in my neck of the woods would seem to suggest something big is brewing mid-week, atmospheric river or not...
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Nan3cy - 01-29-2024
cardcrimson dateline='[url=tel:1706557983' Wrote: 1706557983[/url]']
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1706556387' Wrote: 1706556387[/url]']
Atmospheric rivers on their way for NorCal, one on Friday, one on Sunday, per NYT. A third will hit midweek, and a fourth affecting SoCal will happen by the end of next week.
Atmospheric Rivers Forecast to Bring Rain to California and The West - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
When did storms, or a series of storms, become atmospheric rivers?
I think it was when they stopped being referred to as the “Pineapple Express.”
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - 82lsju - 01-29-2024
(01-29-2024, 12:53 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:(01-29-2024, 12:26 PM)Mick Wrote: Atmospheric rivers on their way for NorCal, one on Friday, one on Sunday, per NYT. A third will hit midweek, and a fourth affecting SoCal will happen by the end of next week.
Atmospheric Rivers Forecast to Bring Rain to California and The West - The New York Times (nytimes.com)
When did storms, or a series of storms, become atmospheric rivers?
they seem to be the more general terms for weather that locally used to be called "pineapple express" storms
Quote:A well-known example of a strong atmospheric river is called the "Pineapple Express" because moisture builds up in the tropical Pacific around Hawaii and can wallop the U.S. and Canada's West Coasts with heavy rainfall and snow.
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/pineapple-express.html
leftcoast - Leftcoast - 01-29-2024
newguy Wrote:i wonder if that atmospheric river will hit Las Vegas around February 11th.
asking for a friend.
Let your friend (and Brock Purdy) know the Vegas stadium is a dome.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegiant_Stadium
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Softball Fan - 01-29-2024
Atmospheric rivers will be hitting SoCal big time this week. Some years there is a "March miracle". This year it may be a February miracle.
https://ktla.com/weather/atmospheric-river-driven-rains-expected-to-hit-socal-this-week/
According to the National Weather Service, an atmospheric river, known as a Pineapple Express, will blast the SoCal this week, bringing heavy rain and high winds along with it. Some coastal ranges will see up to 8 inches of rain as the storm progresses.
“We are looking at many days of rainfall,” said KTLA 5 weather reporter Kaj Goldberg. “From Feb. 1 until Feb. 9, we will get plenty of rain.”
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - cardcrimson - 01-29-2024
Ah, but the Pineapple Express is but one example, apparently. I've heard them mentioned with regard to storms in the Pacific Northwest, and I think even on the East Coast. Here's NOAA's definition.
https://www.noaa.gov/stories/what-are-atmospheric-rivers
Never experienced an atmospheric river until just a few years ago, and I lived most of my life in the Bay Area. . . .
RE: leftcoast - newguy - 01-30-2024
(01-29-2024, 02:27 PM)Leftcoast Wrote:newguy Wrote:i wonder if that atmospheric river will hit Las Vegas around February 11th.
asking for a friend.
Let your friend (and Brock Purdy) know the Vegas stadium is a dome.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegiant_Stadium
Thanks, I'll be sure to tell him.
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Mick - 01-30-2024
I didn't realize the snowpack was so far below normal. 65% of normal in the northern Sierras, 36% of normal in the southern Sierras. This weekend's blowout storm should have quite an impact.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/monster-pacific-storm-to-firehose-california-with-rain-flooding-and-wind/ar-BB1hrC43?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=1715ab7ae0604feda095fc15fc9238ea&ei=22
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Maple Leaf - 01-30-2024
(01-30-2024, 08:55 AM)Mick Wrote: I didn't realize the snowpack was so far below normal. 65% of normal in the northern Sierras, 36% of normal in the southern Sierras. This weekend's blowout storm should have quite an impact.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/monster-pacific-storm-to-firehose-california-with-rain-flooding-and-wind/ar-BB1hrC43?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=1715ab7ae0604feda095fc15fc9238ea&ei=22
Unfortunately, a good amount of high elevation precipitation has been rain, not snow. Additionally with the increase in temperatures what snow there is come spring, melts off much faster than what was the norm 20 years ago, based upon what I have encountered cross country skiing.
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - M T - 01-30-2024
(01-30-2024, 09:11 AM)Maple Leaf Wrote: Unfortunately, a good amount of high elevation precipitation has been rain, not snow. Additionally with the increase in temperatures what snow there is come spring, melts off much faster than what was the norm 20 years ago, based upon what I have encountered cross country skiing.
Does that really matter? As long as the reservoirs have room, can't they take the runoff in March rather than May? If the reservoirs are essentially at 100% of capacity some time in the spring, isn't California in good shape?
I was struck by this graphic at MercuryNews.com (Calif. Feb 1 snowpack level, 1950-now)
https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/16621706/embed
My eye wants to detect two patterns. One is a rough cycle of very low years. 1963, 1976-77, 1991, <skip>, 2014 about every 13-14 years (so not in sync with solar cycle).
The other is that heaviest rain years seem mostly surrounded by drier years, but that could just be statistically expected.
I expect if these patterns were in the data, someone would have pointed them out and named them.
The 30-day and 90-day predictions for California precipitation still look as they did a month ago. (30-day was issued January 18)
Ouch. At the 90-day link above, you can see long range predictions for each 3-month period (example: March-April-May, April-May-June, etc) for the next year. It's going to be a hot one for California, and worse for much of the rest of the country. Next "near average" 3-month period for California begins in November.
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Maple Leaf - 01-30-2024
(01-30-2024, 11:18 AM)M T Wrote:(01-30-2024, 09:11 AM)Maple Leaf Wrote: Unfortunately, a good amount of high elevation precipitation has been rain, not snow. Additionally with the increase in temperatures what snow there is come spring, melts off much faster than what was the norm 20 years ago, based upon what I have encountered cross country skiing.
Does that really matter? As long as the reservoirs have room, can't they take the runoff in March rather than May? If the reservoirs are essentially at 100% of capacity some time in the spring, isn't California in good shape?
Rate of snow melt does matter. A fast snow melt will send more water down into the natural drainage courses of the landscape, hence you have more flooding, and erosion both of which increases the amount of sediment in the streams, reservoirs, and estuaries. A fast snow melt will also reduce the amount of water that makes its way into the underground aquifers. A slow snow melt is what Mother Nature designed for.
I was struck by this graphic at MercuryNews.com (Calif. Feb 1 snowpack level, 1950-now)
https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/16621706/embed
My eye wants to detect two patterns. One is a rough cycle of very low years. 1963, 1976-77, 1991, <skip>, 2014 about every 13-14 years (so not in sync with solar cycle).
The other is that heaviest rain years seem mostly surrounded by drier years, but that could just be statistically expected.
I expect if these patterns were in the data, someone would have pointed them out and named them.
The 30-day and 90-day predictions for California precipitation still look as they did a month ago. (30-day was issued January 18)
Ouch. At the 90-day link above, you can see long range predictions for each 3-month period (example: March-April-May, April-May-June, etc) for the next year. It's going to be a hot one for California, and worse for much of the rest of the country. Next "near average" 3-month period for California begins in November.
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Mick - 01-31-2024
Sierra snowpack has doubled in the last month, from 25% of normal on 1/1/24 to 52% of normal yesterday.
From 10/1/23 to 1/1/24, just 23 inches of snow fell at the UC snow lab site off of Hwy 80. On Monday, the seasonal total had grown to 105 inches (that's at 6,900 feet).
And we're getting significant storms over the next week. They're expecting two feet of new snow in Tahoe, three feet in Sonora Pass, and up to five feet on Mt. Lassen.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/01/29/sierra-nevada-snowpack-triples-in-past-month-more-storms-on-the-way/
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Mick - 02-04-2024
8 trillion gallons to fall on California by Tuesday. Flood warnings affecting 94% of California's population. I checked Los Gatos Creek by my house, looks to be about half-full.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13043713/California-bomb-cyclone-Pineapple-Express-rain.html
If you want to see something colorful, take a look at the PG&E power outage map:
https://pgealerts.alerts.pge.com/outage-tools/outage-map/
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Mick - 02-06-2024
Los Angeles normally has a little over 14 inches of rain annually. They had more than seven inches on Sunday and Monday, the wettest two day total since 1956. 11 inches so far this year.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/californias-historic-storm-numbers/story?id=106989350&fbclid=IwAR02gODBw93Zg6TPy3hVIltGWEmV4DhzYYtPEHr15uOhSRVRjXoDEiykq7o
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - cardcrimson - 02-06-2024
(02-06-2024, 04:10 PM)Mick Wrote: Los Angeles normally has a little over 14 inches of rain annually. They had more than seven inches on Sunday and Monday, the wettest two day total since 1956. 11 inches so far this year.Saw that report, as well. Something doesn't add up. There was another report that the 4.1 inches on Sunday shattered the single day record of 2.55 inches, or there about. Question, if the single day record is 2.5 inches, how can the two day record from 1956 be over seven inches?
https://abcnews.go.com/US/californias-historic-storm-numbers/story?id=106989350&fbclid=IwAR02gODBw93Zg6TPy3hVIltGWEmV4DhzYYtPEHr15uOhSRVRjXoDEiykq7o
RE: Palo Alto Flooding - Mick - 02-06-2024
(01-03-2024, 10:39 AM)Mick Wrote: https://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/javareports?name=RESSW
Reservoir capacity updated for February 6, 2024 (using threepointer's scale). Listed with % of Average to date:
Large (1 MM+ AF):
Oroville, 77% / 130%
Shasta, 82% / 124%
Pine Flat, 66% / 157%
San Luis, 61% / 80%
New Melones, 83% / 141%
Trinity, 65% / 100%
Don Pedro, 82% / 114%
Lake McClure, 64% / 134%
Berryessa, 85% / 108%
Almanor, 71% / 114%
Medium (300k - 999k AF, where available)
Folsom, 58% / 125%
New Bullards, 75% / 113%
Diamond Valley, 93% / 127%
Indian Valley, 63% / 122%
Millerton Lake/Friant, 56% / 94%
Isabella, 37% / 133%
Lake San Antonio, 70% / 137%
Lake Tahoe/Tahoe City, 74% / 207%
Nacimiento, 70% / 142%
Camanche, 79% / 129%
New Hogan, 56% / 130%
Castaic, 77% / 98%
Clear Lake, 96% / 151%
SF Bay Reservoirs (and of local interest, where available)
Hetch Hetchy, 88% / 140%
Calaveras, 90% / 188%
Del Valle, 49% / 114%
U San Leandro, 96% / 120%
San Pablo, 68% / 101%
Chabot, 94% / 109%
Briones, 85% / 104%
Lexington Reservoir, 62% / 123%
San Antonio Reservoir, 96% / 113%
Crystal Springs Reservoir, 64% / 88%
Capacity at the southern and central reservoirs have increased, some substantially (by 8% to 10%). Some of the northern reservoirs (e.g., Lake Almanor) barely budged. Mid-sized reservoirs have increased overall, Clear Lake is almost at capacity from being half full this time last month.
Overall capacity across the state is 72.5% (29 mms. acre/feet capacity against just under 21 mms. acre/feet in storage as of 2/5/24.). A year ago, we were at 58.8% capacity. Right now, inflow is about 2.35x outflow. * This data is not comprehensive, it omits some large reservoirs including Almanor, Lake San Antonio, Diamond Valley, Clear Lake, Tahoe Reservoir, Lake Nacimiento and a few small reservoirs.
https://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/javareports?name=RES
SFBA reservoirs largely holding steady, Lexington is up the most from 44% to 62% capacity. Strangest thing is that about 8-10 reservoirs actually dropped in the "average to date" scale.
RE: Palo Alto Flooding - M T - 02-06-2024
Mick dateline='[url=tel:1707263011' Wrote: 1707263011[/url]']Maybe surprising but not strange. Managers probably let water out expecting a bigger rainfall than actually happened
SFBA reservoirs largely holding steady, Lexington is up the most from 44% to 62% capacity. Strangest thing is that about 8-10 reservoirs actually dropped in the "average to date" scale.