Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 01-04-2023

(01-04-2023, 04:22 PM)gocard14 Wrote:  Nice to see some more armor heading Ukraine’s way. This is big on its own, but I suspect that it also opens the door to Bradley’s being sent next, which would probably have a much larger impact due to the number of them available.

You may well be right, but it seems like the US is slicing the bologna pretty thin if it was waiting for the French "tank" before sending Bradleys.  Aside from weapons that are at least mostly defensive in nature (Patriots, NASAMS, Harpoons, Jevelins, Stingers), and aside from Soviet legacy systems (MiGs, choppers, tanks, etc.), the West has sent plenty of weapons of western origin that seem mostly offensive in nature, including artillery and armored personnel carriers.  And we're talking about a 40+ year old IFV, not some weapons system that's likely to allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory like ATACMS.  Any basis for refusing to send Bradleys seems contrived given the assistance the West already provided.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 01-04-2023

Re: Bradley's

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1610726984161558537?s=20&t=Smxcly534cmMPZXZ13Hgvw[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 01-04-2023

I think any reluctance to send Bradley IFVs is based on logistics and effectiveness, not a fear of Russian response. After all, the M113s that we sent were also IFVs, just older ones. The logistics train of any new weapon, particularly one as physically large as a Bradley, isn't negligible. It's main gun also fires ammunition that isn't already in common use by Ukraine. The other question is how well the Bradleys will fit the Ukraine's current needs.

If Ukraine is really going towards a NATO standard striking force, the Bradleys would beat the BMP-1s and BMP-2s for sure. We just have to convince the Ukrainian troops to ride inside the vehicle, not on top :-). The question is whether this is what they need "most" at the moment. I can't answer that, but hopefully the "Adults" in Ukraine and the US brain trust can.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 01-04-2023

I lost the tweet, but Biden apparently confirmed that Bradley’s are going to Ukraine.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 01-05-2023

I saw this belatedly, but I don’t recall it being posted here. Apparently, the US is trying to get middle eastern countries to transfer their existing NASAMS in the next 3-6 months in return for new systems when they are completed over the course of the next 24 months. 

https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2022/12/01/raytheon-air-defense-ukraine-middle-east-00071687

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 01-05-2023

There are rumors that Germany is now considering sending Marder BMP's in light of Frances decision to send AMX 10 RC's, and I have seen more smoke on the Bradley's including Biden approving the decision.  I think we are getting close to sending modern western tanks, with Leopard's being one of the most logical.  I wonder if it would take other countries helping finance the transfer to give Germany the courage, or something of that sort.  Who knows, but if Ukraine's military continues to be supplied by more modern equipment, while Russia continues to dig deeper into their older stocks, at some point I'd think we see a real tipping point, but maybe I'm too optimistic.

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Seems both rumors are very likely now, maybe they will wait for the next Ramstein meeting to officially announce?  


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-05/us-and-germany-will-send-ukraine-armored-vehicles-in-a-major-arms-upgrade#xj4y7vzkg

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 01-05-2023

Bradley's AND Marders. Nice. 
[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1611054617491652609?s=20&t=c_OlbUn3rTHF2kA5AGtDQQ[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 01-05-2023

(01-05-2023, 10:23 AM)Treefence Wrote:  There are rumors that Germany is now considering sending Marder BMP's in light of Frances decision to send AMX 10 RC's,

Given the latest German Puma IFV fiasco, I think it unlikely they have operational Marders to send :-). At a minimum, there will be a "quiet period" as they reassess their own requirements for Marders. They have more than they need, given the Bundeswehr's current size, but in what condition is the issue. Could be surprised though. It may be the transfer is too far down the road to pause it, or it will be announced but not happen immediately anyway.

Quote:and I have seen more smoke on the Bradley's including Biden approving the decision.  I think we are getting close to sending modern western tanks, with Leopard's being one of the most logical.  I wonder if it would take other countries helping finance the transfer to give Germany the courage, or something of that sort.  Who knows, but if Ukraine's military continues to be supplied by more modern equipment, while Russia continues to dig deeper into their older stocks, at some point I'd think we see a real tipping point, but maybe I'm too optimistic.

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Seems both rumors are very likely now, maybe they will wait for the next Ramstein meeting to officially announce?  


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-05/us-and-germany-will-send-ukraine-armored-vehicles-in-a-major-arms-upgrade#xj4y7vzkg

The real question is how Ukraine intends to use these weapons. Just having them will help a little. Replacing BMPs with them will help, because they are newer and "better". Using them as they were designed to be used can tip the balance. So far, Ukraine has done a great job with most of the stuff they have been given. These "new" IFVs, to be a game changer, need to be employed differently than Ukraine currently has been using their existing IFVs. This will be more difficult than some other things Ukraine has adopted, because it requires more widespread training, but so far Ukraine has always stepped up.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 01-05-2023

Quote:The real question is how Ukraine intends to use these weapons. Just having them will help a little. Replacing BMPs with them will help, because they are newer and "better". Using them as they were designed to be used can tip the balance. So far, Ukraine has done a great job with most of the stuff they have been given. These "new" IFVs, to be a game changer, need to be employed differently than Ukraine currently has been using their existing IFVs. This will be more difficult than some other things Ukraine has adopted, because it requires more widespread training, but so far Ukraine has always stepped up.

Goose, you raise a good question.  Do you think Ukrainian troops being trained in Europe will be working on these tactics?  Hopefully the theoretical tactics have already been taught, and better yet, maybe they've been using these vehicles in training.  I just wonder with the amounts of troops being trained in Europe, they could probably be trained as an autonomous brigade/division, with newer doctrine applied.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 01-05-2023

Mark Hertling (a former Bradley commander) had a good tweet thread about how they could be used

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1610784018345394176?s=20&t=3S13wQVa6WTOL-y6NwQaiA[/tweet]

Discussing the Bradley, AMX10RC, and Marders, he writes:

Quote:The advantage of all 3 is their firepower, great cross-country mobility, low maintenance, easy repair, & small logistics trail.

None are tanks, which many will still scream about. But they will allow Ukraine's emerging combined arms teams to conduct high tempo maneuver.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 01-05-2023

(01-05-2023, 11:40 AM)Treefence Wrote:  

Quote:The real question is how Ukraine intends to use these weapons. Just having them will help a little. Replacing BMPs with them will help, because they are newer and "better". Using them as they were designed to be used can tip the balance. So far, Ukraine has done a great job with most of the stuff they have been given. These "new" IFVs, to be a game changer, need to be employed differently than Ukraine currently has been using their existing IFVs. This will be more difficult than some other things Ukraine has adopted, because it requires more widespread training, but so far Ukraine has always stepped up.

Goose, you raise a good question.  Do you think Ukrainian troops being trained in Europe will be working on these tactics?  Hopefully the theoretical tactics have already been taught, and better yet, maybe they've been using these vehicles in training.  I just wonder with the amounts of troops being trained in Europe, they could probably be trained as an autonomous brigade/division, with newer doctrine applied.

I doubt the troops being trained in Europe are being trained for anything except basic infantry tactics. These training sessions are far too short to go much beyond that, and Ukraine has many troops available that have had absolutely no training other than OJT. It also probably wouldn't work, as exactly how Ukraine intends to operate probably must be unique to them, not a copy of what NATO does (which itself is a vector). The US takes eight weeks of Advanced Individual Training (AIT) after your Basic Training to even be "entry level" to a Bradley unit. At the unit you will get lots of additional training. Probably too slow for Ukraine. There will have to be training, but designing that training isn't going to be obvious.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 01-05-2023

Well that escalated quickly. 

[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/GermanAmbUSA/status/1611074496621846528?s=20&t=5bMGk-VVVwNDZL0ZsXqrcg]https://twitter.com/GermanAmbUSA/status/1611074496621846528?s=20&t=5bMGk-VVVwNDZL0ZsXqrcg[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 01-05-2023

(01-05-2023, 11:51 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  

Quote:The advantage of all 3 is their firepower, great cross-country mobility, low maintenance, easy repair, & small logistics trail.

None are tanks, which many will still scream about.  But they will allow Ukraine's emerging combined arms teams to conduct high tempo maneuver.

BC

The "small logistics trail" comment is accurate only when compared to the logistics requirement of a tank. It is much bigger than than that of light infantry. They require 25 mm ammunition which nothing else in Ukraine does, AFAIK. The can use a lot of it relatively quickly, especially with gunners who aren't real experienced. Ukraine already uses TOW missiles, but they will need more of them if they are going to engage tanks and fortifications with Bradleys. I don't know how much 50 Cal Ukraine uses. Russian 12.5 mm won't work as I understand it, but is pretty easy to confuse with the "correct" ammunition. The French 105 mm gun fires 105×527R proprietary ammunition which is like nothing else in NATO or Ukraine. Sole source. The Marder uses 20 mm gun ammunition. This isn't a walk in the park.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 01-05-2023

More news on the provision of weapons systems to Ukraine:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/01/05/joint-press-statement-following-a-call-between-the-president-joe-biden-and-the-chancellor-of-the-federal-republic-of-germany-olaf-scholz/

In addition to the IFVs discussed above in this thread, Germany also will be supplying Ukraine with a Patriot battery.  No info on exactly when that will happen.  But it doesn't seem unrealistic that Ukraine should have a significant number of IFVs as well as 8 NASAMS and 2 Patriot batteries sometime in Spring.  I hope Russia won't succeed with many drone attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure and Ukraine's battlefield position won't deteriorate much before those reinforcements arrive, but that's not necessarily a realistic hope.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 01-05-2023

More of a rumor at this point, but it seems the west is stepping up.  

[tweet][url=https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1611082958659543050?s=20&t=5bMGk-VVVwNDZL0ZsXqrcg]https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1611082958659543050?s=20&t=5bMGk-VVVwNDZL0ZsXqrcg[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 01-05-2023

https://www.yahoo.com/news/little-known-weapon-knocking-down-231523727.html

Pretty much sums it up. Unfortunately the Swiss objection is still in play it seems. Possibly there has been a back-channel message of "This is our public position but we can't stop you from shipping what you already have in Germany" wink wink. Germany has more of these units, and as long as Russia can't/doesn't target their radars, they can be very effective. They do have optical trackers, but using these at night is basically impossible as I understand it. Even in daylight, acquiring the targets visually can be difficult.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 01-05-2023

(01-05-2023, 12:44 PM)Goose Wrote:  https://www.yahoo.com/news/little-known-weapon-knocking-down-231523727.html

Pretty much sums it up. Unfortunately the Swiss objection is still in play it seems. Possibly there has been a back-channel message of "This is our public position but we can't stop you from shipping what you already have in Germany" wink wink. Germany has more of these units, and as long as Russia can't/doesn't target their radars, they can be very effective. They do have optical trackers, but using these at night is basically impossible as I understand it. Even in daylight, acquiring the targets visually can be difficult.

The neutrality objection is absurd.  If you are neutral, and "neutral" means that no one can ever use your ammunition, then don't sell ammunition to other countries.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 01-05-2023

50 Bradley's + 40 Marders + Patriot + more Gepards. Undoubtedly very positive developments for Ukraine. There will be some logistics issues, but this could equip very potent striking force in time for a Spring offensive.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1611080622415712256[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Hurlburt88 - 01-05-2023

These commitments have to be impacting attitudes on end games and any quiet discussions….

And Ukraine not “biting” on the Orthodox Christmas cease fire announced by Russia

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 01-05-2023

(01-05-2023, 01:42 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  50 Bradley's + 40 Marders + Patriot + more Gepards. Undoubtedly very positive developments for Ukraine. There will be some logistics issues, but this could equip very potent striking force in time for a Spring offensive.

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1611080622415712256

It could, but everybody would have to move pretty fast for that to happen. Our record on that isn't great, and we are talking 50 Bradleys, which is "quite a few". Germany's record for promptness is even worse, but there is a first time for everything. Of course, since Russia has already lost 1,754 IFVs in Ukraine, 50 doesn't look like so much. It is a step, and if well used, it could be an important one.

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