Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 02-06-2023

Clueless, privileged, drunk basketball fans :(

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Leftcoast - 02-06-2023

(02-06-2023, 10:14 AM)fullmetal Wrote:  Clueless, privileged, drunk basketball fans :(

Clueless fans indeed.  It's the modern equivalent of Arizona State fans chanting "PLO" and "Your father's history" at Steve Kerr, referring to his father death in 1984 in Beirut.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 02-06-2023

There was some pretty horrid stuff on the 6th Man print out to mock opposing players. I seem to recall a "roof is on fire" chant regarding Leon Powe, whose house had burned down as a child.

With age I can see those chants all sucked. Even the "how do you spell S-A-T" one for Jason Kidd.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - fullmetal - 02-06-2023

Oof yeah.  Most people learn, sooner or later, that tragedy knows no boundaries, and a little bit of compassion goes a long way toward a healthy society.  I wish I'd known this when I was younger.

Maybe Derrick Rose deserves the S-A-T chant though.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 02-06-2023

(02-06-2023, 12:51 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  There was some pretty horrid stuff on the 6th Man print out to mock opposing players. I seem to recall a "roof is on fire" chant regarding Leon Powe, whose house had burned down as a child.

With age I can see those chants all sucked. Even the "how do you spell S-A-T" one for Jason Kidd.

The giant joint when (I think) Jelani McCoy and UCLA came to town was pretty funny, though.  The dividing line, for me, is the extent to which the target was something the player themselves did, or not.  Agree that mocking a player for a tragedy that befell them when they were a child is pretty crappy.  But FWIW, I thought Jason Kidd was mocked for his statement about turning Cal around "360 degrees".  

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 02-06-2023

Getting back to the war in Ukraine, this news caught my attention.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-deficit-soars-to-25-billion-on-war-spending-oil-embargo-11675706249?mod=djemwhatsnews

It looks like the war and sanctions may finally be catching up to Russia.  All this while the West is tightening the sanctions noose on Russia's ability to earn revenues from oil and gas.  Of course, it is a race between tightening sanctions and Russia's ability to adapt to the sanctions by reorienting its economy away from Europe.

If, as the article notes, Russia's Sovereign Wealth Fund has assets equivalent to 7.2% of GDP in it, and its deficit is around 2 - 2.8% of GDP, it will have 3 - 4 years left of runway.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 02-06-2023

(02-06-2023, 06:10 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Getting back to the war in Ukraine, this news caught my attention.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-deficit-soars-to-25-billion-on-war-spending-oil-embargo-11675706249?mod=djemwhatsnews

It looks like the war and sanctions may finally be catching up to Russia.  All this while the West is tightening the sanctions noose on Russia's ability to earn revenues from oil and gas.  Of course, it is a race between tightening sanctions and Russia's ability to adapt to the sanctions by reorienting its economy away from Europe.

If, as the article notes, Russia's Sovereign Wealth Fund has assets equivalent to 7.2% of GDP in it, and its deficit is around 2 - 2.8% of GDP, it will have 3 - 4 years left of runway.

BC

I've been wondering about Russia reorienting away from Europe.  We know that Russia is doing business with Iran and North Korea.  That makes sense.  Pariahs stick together.  But trade with Iran and North Korea isn't sufficient to sustain a country as big as Russia.  The bigger question is what China is doing.  Has anyone here read whether China is filling in the void that Europe left when it imposed sanctions on Russia?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 02-06-2023

(02-06-2023, 06:56 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  I've been wondering about Russia reorienting away from Europe.  We know that Russia is doing business with Iran and North Korea.  That makes sense.  Pariahs stick together.  But trade with Iran and North Korea isn't sufficient to sustain a country as big as Russia.  The bigger question is what China is doing.  Has anyone here read whether China is filling in the void that Europe left when it imposed sanctions on Russia?

As it happens, there was a WSJ article about that as well: https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-ramps-up-china-trade-to-counter-western-sanctions-11675079584?st=vbfa24qhf646ts7&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Quote:Trade between Russia and China rose by roughly $27 billion between March and September of last year compared with the same period in 2021, according to the report, to reach $99 billion.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 02-07-2023

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1622961006237417473?s=20&t=WceBRkKO401hw2KYofhcUg[/tweet]

Bullseye

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/JSukraine2022/status/1622989013580939264?s=20&t=2JghI9NeGnYWskcf32waog[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 02-07-2023

Gee, I wonder why Russian soldiers might have turned on their commanders...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MediaResonator/status/1621589592796286976?s=20&t=xT89EOTx_RZ30DdMza_ggg[/tweet]

I guess this would have made a good shot/chaser or reap/sow or f- around/find out meme.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 02-07-2023

It seems on top of the recent modern tanks pledged, there are also a number of Leopard 1A5 tanks that will head to Ukraine.  It sounded like some will be ready now and some will take a while, but I've seen over 100 potentially going to Ukraine.  How effective will they be?  They have a much smaller gun, 105mm, but the more modern version have decent upgrades.  Will they be comparable to the most common T-72B3 tanks Russia has been using?  Would they be used more in reserve?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 02-07-2023

(02-07-2023, 11:25 AM)Treefence Wrote:  It seems on top of the recent modern tanks pledged, there are also a number of Leopard 1A5 tanks that will head to Ukraine.  It sounded like some will be ready now and some will take a while, but I've seen over 100 potentially going to Ukraine.  How effective will they be?  They have a much smaller gun, 105mm, but the more modern version have decent upgrades.  Will they be comparable to the most common T-72B3 tanks Russia has been using?  Would they be used more in reserve?

My read is probably too lightly armored and not a big enough gun to go tank V tank against upgraded T72s, but mobile and plenty of firepower for infantry and anti-structure support, which is mostly what tanks have been used for in this conflict. Will be more vulnerable to ATGMs then the more modern tanks though.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Leftcoast - 02-07-2023

Off Topic with a twist

Boston Card, I remember seeing the giant joint in the 6th man section when Stanford played UConn and Khalid El-Amin in 1999.  El-Amin had recently been busted in Hartford for possession.  It may have came out for a UCLA game as well.

In a twist, Khalid played extensively overseas after his NCAA career and short stint in the NBA ended, including time in Ukraine where he helped "Azovmash Mariupol" win a Ukrainean title. That name sounds VERY familiar in 2022/2023.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - PVTree - 02-07-2023

One of my personal favorite chants against opponents is "Cheryl's better than Reggie!".

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 02-07-2023

Quote:I guess this would have made a good shot/chaser or reap/sow or f- around/find out meme.

Speaking of.....don't antagonize camels

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/TheDolgo/status/1622196254867341313?s=20&t=h1_cxFl9k6we6LtYMrsnJw[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 02-07-2023

(02-07-2023, 12:50 PM)gocard14 Wrote:  

(02-07-2023, 11:25 AM)Treefence Wrote:  It seems on top of the recent modern tanks pledged, there are also a number of Leopard 1A5 tanks that will head to Ukraine.  It sounded like some will be ready now and some will take a while, but I've seen over 100 potentially going to Ukraine.  How effective will they be?  They have a much smaller gun, 105mm, but the more modern version have decent upgrades.  Will they be comparable to the most common T-72B3 tanks Russia has been using?  Would they be used more in reserve?

My read is probably too lightly armored and not a big enough gun to go tank V tank against upgraded T72s, but mobile and plenty of firepower for infantry and anti-structure support, which is mostly what tanks have been used for in this conflict. Will be more vulnerable to ATGMs then the more modern tanks though.

I agree, most of the utility of tanks has been and probably will continue to be fire support against fortifications/strong points. The Leopard 1A5 has a fairly modern gun-sight and gyro stabilization, but it is not in the class of a 2A6. It is however probably better in both areas than the upgraded T72s. It can fire on the move better. This probably won't matter for the above reasons.

The Leopard 1A5 is considerably more difficult to operate than the 2A6. The gunner and commander have much better displays that "see" further and more clearly in the 2A6 and they are easier to use. Again, it probably won't matter. It is just too bad that Ukraine might have to train crews to use the less capable tank. It also is probable IMO that once people start looking seriously (like a fixed price contract) at what it will actually take (in time and money) to get these tanks operating, they probably will rethink the effort. It is always harder than you think and these tanks have been in storage for quite a while in most cases.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 02-08-2023

Russia making gains:  
[tweet]https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1623391695533674496[/tweet]

I hope this offensive runs out of steam soon as it is causing large numbers of casualties on both sides and seems to be resulting in at least some gains for the Russian side. We’ve talked here about the problems posed by the appearance of a stalemate, but this is worse than a stalemate right now. That fancy western equipment can’t come fast enough.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 02-08-2023

UK offering to start training pilots

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1623236293177098241?s=20&t=22UhsIezZ6nM_3KUwuu0Xg
[/tweet]

What that likely means in practice

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/Justin_Br0nk/status/1623272675094196226?s=20&t=22UhsIezZ6nM_3KUwuu0Xg
[/tweet]

Western 4th gen jets probably still a ways away, but good to start planning for an eventual transition away from Migs and Flankers.

...


Russia is making very minimal gains and paying very dearly for it. I think Ukraine is very content to bleed Russia out for the minimal gains. They've been trying to take Bakhmut for a long long long time now.

From the Russian perspective on Bakhmut and elsewhere in East-

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1623377500813332486?s=20&t=eEdBqp-3f5IUxp0wfTONvQ
[/tweet]

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/auto_glam/status/1623415604639109123?s=20&t=AyqX3y-VlFU95huAjz08Gw[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 02-08-2023

I think Def Mon's assessment is probably right.  Soon, maybe very soon, Ukraine will evacuate Bakhmut, having bled the Russians for all they can.  This is similar to their strategy in Severodonetsk in the summer.  The goal isn't to hold the territory per se, but to make the cost for the Russians to take it over very high.  Yes, it is a symbolic win for the Russians, but if Ukraine did its job, they will have made it a Pyrrhic victory.

And for what it is worth, the UK is "considering sending advanced jets to Ukraine", so the training likely is a prelude.  The UK was also the first country to agree to send tanks to Ukraine as well, and though I wasn't a large number, once that taboo was broken, they and others could pressure Germany (especially) and the US to send tanks, which they eventually did.  The only issue is that the UK would need permission from the other countries that co-developed the Typhoon.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-zelensky-to-visit-u-k-as-britain-steps-up-training-military-aid-11675848644https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-zelensky-to-visit-u-k-as-britain-steps-up-training-military-aid-11675848644

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 02-08-2023

(02-08-2023, 04:16 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I think Def Mon's assessment is probably right.  Soon, maybe very soon, Ukraine will evacuate Bakhmut, having bled the Russians for all they can.  This is similar to their strategy in Severodonetsk in the summer.  The goal isn't to hold the territory per se, but to make the cost for the Russians to take it over very high.  Yes, it is a symbolic win for the Russians, but if Ukraine did its job, they will have made it a Pyrrhic victory.

And for what it is worth, the UK is "considering sending advanced jets to Ukraine", so the training likely is a prelude.  The UK was also the first country to agree to send tanks to Ukraine as well, and though I wasn't a large number, once that taboo was broken, they and others could pressure Germany (especially) and the US to send tanks, which they eventually did.  The only issue is that the UK would need permission from the other countries that co-developed the Typhoon.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-zelensky-to-visit-u-k-as-britain-steps-up-training-military-aid-11675848644https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-zelensky-to-visit-u-k-as-britain-steps-up-training-military-aid-11675848644

BC

Note the rest of DefMon's thread too.  Russia made progress in the direction of Kupyansk.  And near Dibrova.  It's not just the loss of one town in the Donbas.  Russia is on offense and Ukraine is on defense along most of the line of contact right now, and the anticipation is that Russia is going to be stepping up its attacks even more in the near future.  Russia may be winning Pyrrhic victories, but nonetheless, Russia is taking Ukrainian territory.  It's not a stalemate right now, and even a stalemate is bad for Ukraine.  The hope has to be that Russia is exhausting its capacity to fight while Ukraine is defending efficiently and conserving resources for a Spring/Summer counteroffensive.  I hear a lot of talk about that, but until it happens, that's just talk.

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