Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Printable Version
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RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - cardcrimson - 04-03-2024
This morning, my daughter and I had a private tour of the National Water Center and its Office of Water Prediction. Really a fascinating place. They are primarily focused on flood potential, though they also hit on many aspects of hydrology and national water predictions of droughts, etc. Lots of science and modeling. Below are a couple of links that y'all might interesting:
https://www.weather.gov/owp/operations
https://water.weather.gov/ahps/forecasts.php
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Leftcoast - 04-03-2024
I expect many of the water managers to get estimates of Snow Pack and drainage predictions for their watersheds soon which will result in them adjusting storage levels - We will likely see declining numbers in April and May.
Reservoir levels are allowed to climb in Winter and then drained to the appropriate level for flood control when solid watershed snowpack levels are received.
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - cctop - 04-09-2024
There were several articles this week about how Lake Shasta will soon fill completely and already would be filled if they hadn't released water in previous weeks:
https://www.newsweek.com/lake-shasta-fill-completely-california-1887962
It's amazing to me given how dire the situation was just two years ago.
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - cardcrimson - 04-09-2024
(04-09-2024, 11:50 AM)cctop Wrote: There were several articles this week about how Lake Shasta will soon fill completely and already would be filled if they hadn't released water in previous weeks:
https://www.newsweek.com/lake-shasta-fill-completely-california-1887962
It's amazing to me given how dire the situation was just two years ago.
It was amazing to me that an "expert" on KCBS late last fall was warning of low water reserves and the real possibility of a severe drought and water shortfalls in the coming summer. . . .
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - dabigv13 - 04-09-2024
California had a very poor start to winter with precipitation. It will end up being close to average because the storms did eventually come, but snowpack in December was very bad in California, one of the worst early winters on record. The expert was correct at the time that drought and water shortfalls were a concern. Fortunately the weather in the second half of winter delivered, but sometimes it won't.
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - cardcrimson - 04-09-2024
(04-09-2024, 04:05 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: California had a very poor start to winter with precipitation. It will end up being close to average because the storms did eventually come, but snowpack in December was very bad in California, one of the worst early winters on record. The expert was correct at the time that drought and water shortfalls were a concern. Fortunately the weather in the second half of winter delivered, but sometimes it won't.
While that might be true, the reservoirs at the time were well over normal and the rainy season hadn't started yet. There was so much snow over the summer, that I believe the Pacific Crest Trail never fully opened. . . .
RE: Palo Alto Flooding - Mick - 05-06-2024
(04-03-2024, 09:13 AM)Mick Wrote: https://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/javareports?name=RESSWReservoir capacity updated for May 6, 2024 (using threepointer's scale). Listed with % of Average to date:
Large (1 MM+ AF):
Oroville, 100% / 128%
Shasta, 97% / 115%
Pine Flat, 95% / 115%
San Luis, 68% / 85%
New Melones, 86% / 138%
Trinity, 85% / 108%
Don Pedro, 88% / 114%
Lake McClure, 88% / 114%
Berryessa, 96% / 115%
Almanor, 82% / 114%
Medium (300k - 999k AF, where available)
Folsom, 89% / 116%
New Bullards, 97% / 114%
Diamond Valley, 90% / 119%
Indian Valley, 90% / 148%
Millerton Lake, 100% / 139%
Isabella, 59% / 145%
Lake San Antonio, 83% / 140%
Lake Tahoe/Tahoe City, 92% / 203%
Nacimiento, 87% / 139%
Camanche, 91% / 140%
New Hogan, 76% / 135%
Castaic, 83% / 96%
Clear Lake, 101% / 123%
SF Bay Reservoirs (and of local interest, where available)
Hetch Hetchy, 87% / 130%
Calaveras, 95% / 174%
Del Valle, 53% / 104%
U San Leandro, 100% / 110%
San Pablo, 71% / 94%
Chabot, 95% / 105%
Briones, 86% / 101%
Lexington Reservoir, 96% / 139%
San Antonio Reservoir, 104% / 115%
Crystal Springs Reservoir, 71% / 92%
Reservoirs have recovered even more than last month. The capacity most of the large reservoirs have increased in the last five weeks between 2% and 19% (Almanor, Trinity, Shasta, Oroville, New Melones, Don Pedro, Pine Flat) over the last month. Only Berryessa and San Luis were down, by 1% and 5% respectively.
Increases have been even greater at the mid-sized reservoirs (300k to 1mm acre feet). A few are down (Nacimiento, Clear Lake); Diamond Valley was unchanged and the rest are up at least 4%, some in the double digits.
Not surprisingly, local SFBA reservoirs fluctuated by a few percent at most. They're generally filled, or have a good reason not to be.
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - jacket3ree - 05-06-2024
I was in our Truckee office last week just before the snowstorm, and drove back over Kit Carson Pass (Hwy 88) and then to the mid-Peninsula through Stockton to avoid Sacramento traffic. Lots of snow still above 5,000 feet. Fun to watch it melting driving by.
California has a structural water deficit because its water supply system was launched in 1960 when there were 16 million people living here, and upgrades have not kept up with population growth (40 million today). Winter temperatures conducive to snowpack are so important because that water supply system relies on that "free" storage.
Obviously at some point, you can have more storage capacity than one can reasonably hope to fill. More pertinent to Southern California, Lake Powell is empty and mostly superfluous at this point. A large part of the reason for this is that the Colorado River Compact was based on assuming one of the wettest periods on record (1920s) was "normal". Turns out it wasn't. Also, California "borrowed" Arizona's water until Phoenix happened.
Lake Powell
Colorado River Compact - View from Arizona
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Mick - 05-06-2024
(05-06-2024, 06:34 PM)jacket3ree Wrote: I was in our Truckee office last week just before the snowstorm, and drove back over Kit Carson Pass (Hwy 88) and then to the mid-Peninsula through Stockton to avoid Sacramento traffic. Lots of snow still above 5,000 feet. Fun to watch it melting driving by.
California has a structural water deficit because its water supply system was launched in 1960 when there were 16 million people living here, and upgrades have not kept up with population growth (40 million today). Winter temperatures conducive to snowpack are so important because that water supply system relies on that "free" storage.
Obviously at some point, you can have more storage capacity than one can reasonably hope to fill. More pertinent to Southern California, Lake Powell is empty and mostly superfluous at this point. A large part of the reason for this is that the Colorado River Compact was based on assuming one of the wettest periods on record (1920s) was "normal". Turns out it wasn't. Also, California "borrowed" Arizona's water until Phoenix happened.
Lake Powell
Colorado River Compact - View from Arizona
Does California have first "dibs" on Colorado River water? I thought I read that somewhere...
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - BobK - 05-06-2024
I don’t know first dibs but the Colorado River has feed Imperial Valley for 100 years.
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - dabigv13 - 05-06-2024
My understanding, which could very well be wrong, is that the oldest rights have primacy, and California as a state doesn't have first dibs, but they do have many of the oldest right holders to "lower division" (Nevada, Arizona, California) Colorado River water, lots of farmers and ranchers in the eastern California deserts with very old water rights, claimed during a much wetter period.
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - cardcrimson - 05-07-2024
I would guess the "oldest rights" are somewhat irrelevant. The current flow of about 5% of the natural flow into the Colorado River delta has decimated the original population of native species in favor of species more adapted to the new biosphere. . . .
Not a political point, an ecological one. . ..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado_River_Delta#:~:text=The%20loss%20of%20freshwater%20flows,of%20much%20of%20what%20remains.
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Mick - 05-08-2024
If you're interested in the state's "managed groundwater recharge," this article indicates that during the state's water year (Oct. 1 through Sept. 30), California captured 4.1 million acre-feet (think Lake Shasta) toward its goal of increasing overall groundwater storage by 8.7 million acre-feet.
Fun fact: there were 19 major "atmospheric river" storms in 2023.
California's groundwater supplies boosted by active rainy season
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Mick - 05-22-2024
Tahoe will be full for the first time in nearly five years:
Water levels of iconic American lake rise near capacity for first time in years: 'Water year 2024 is well on its way to receiving an A' (thecooldown.com)
Lake Tahoe expected to fill for the first time in years (sfgate.com)
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - cardcrimson - 05-22-2024
(05-22-2024, 12:48 PM)Mick Wrote: Tahoe will be full for the first time in nearly five years:Flew over the Sierras a couple of mornings ago. Was stunned how many lakes are still frozen and how much snow there still is. . . .
Water levels of iconic American lake rise near capacity for first time in years: 'Water year 2024 is well on its way to receiving an A' (thecooldown.com)
Lake Tahoe expected to fill for the first time in years (sfgate.com)
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Mick - 06-07-2024
A Yolo County judge rejected a lawsuit brought by the Sierra Club, Center for Biological Diversity and other groups who claimed that the Sites Reservoir environmental impact report was inadequate and needed to be redone.
The $4.5 billion Sites Reservoir will be 70 miles NW of Sacto, and will provide water to 500k acres of Central Valley farmlands and 24 million people, including residents of Santa Clara County, parts of the East Bay and Los Angeles. It would store water diverted from the Sacto River in wet years.
The project was supported by Pres Biden, Gov Newsom, Farm organizations, organized labor and 20+ water agencies. It would be the largest new reservoir in California (8th largest in the state) since 1979.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2024/06/05/californias-largest-new-reservoir-project-in-50-years-moves-forward-after-judge-rules-against-environmental-groups/
RE: Palo Alto Flooding - Mick - 06-14-2024
(05-06-2024, 05:48 PM)Mick Wrote: https://cdec.water.ca.gov/reportapp/javareports?name=RESSWReservoir capacity updated for June 14, 2024 (using threepointer's scale). Listed with % of Average to date:
Large (1 MM+ AF):
Oroville, 199% / 127%
Shasta, 93% / 114%
Pine Flat, 99% / 144%
San Luis, 55% / 88%
New Melones, 87% / 140%
Trinity, 86% / 110%
Don Pedro, 96% / 118%
Lake McClure, 98% / 142%
Berryessa, 94% / 115%
Almanor, 825% / 112%
Medium (300k - 999k AF, where available)
Folsom, 96% / 121%
New Bullards, 98% / 112%
Diamond Valley, 91% / 120%
Indian Valley, 88% / 159%
Millerton Lake, 100% / 124%
Isabella, 72% / 147%
Lake San Antonio, 84% / 146%
Lake Tahoe/Tahoe City, 101% / 191%
Nacimiento, 80% / 138%
Camanche, 95% / 134%
New Hogan, 73% / 137%
Castaic, 94% / 108%
Clear Lake, 82% / 117%
SF Bay Reservoirs (and of local interest, where available)
Hetch Hetchy, 98% / 110%
Calaveras, 94% / 182%
Del Valle, 52% / 102%
U San Leandro, 99% / 114%
San Pablo, 69% / 95%
Chabot, 93% / 106%
Briones, 85% / 102%
Lexington Reservoir, 89% / 142%
San Antonio Reservoir, 103% / 114%
Crystal Springs Reservoir, 75% / 101%
The capacity most of the large reservoirs have not changed much. Pine Flat's % of average skyrocketed from 115% to 144% and Lake McClure jumped 10%, not sure why. San Luis dropped by 12%. The other large reservoirs didn't change by more than a point or two.
Changes have been greater at the mid-sized reservoirs (300k to 1mm acre feet). Folsom up 7%, Castaic up 12%, Isabella up 13%. Nacimiento, down 8%, Clear Lake down 17%. The rest about the same.
Not surprisingly, local SFBA reservoirs are mostly full. They didn't change by more than a per cent or two. Exceptions were Hetch Hetchy up by 10%, and Lexington was down about 8%. Lexington is going through a retrofit, so it's likely to decline for a while.
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Hurlburt88 - 06-15-2024
unfortunately behind a paywall. Relevant in terms of plenty of water right now but struggling to transport it to some places because of endangered fish in the delta
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/california-drought-water-farmers-endangered-fish-64184f90?mod=hp_lead_pos8
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Maple Leaf - 06-30-2024
On a somewhat related note.
‘Not prepared’: Why the Midwest floods are a warning for the nation - The Washington Post
This article references California and Stanford.
Not only are existing dams and other infrastructure not built for such extremes, it’s even hard to keep guidelines for new projects in line with future climate projections, said Christine Kirchhoff, an associate professor of engineering design and innovation at Penn State University.
“There’s got to be hundreds if not thousands of dams out there in similar situations,” Kirchhoff said.
Any trend in the frequency of dam failures is unclear in part because of incomplete historical data, said Martin McCann, director of the National Performance of Dams Program at Stanford University. But the rising intensity of precipitation is probably having an impact, with more recent examples of storm events elevating threats to infrastructure, he said.
In 2015, severe flooding across South Carolina caused dozens of dams to fail. In California, recent stormy years have damaged dams including the one impounding its largest reservoir, Lake Oroville, in 2017. Last year, flooding overwhelmed levees and inundated agricultural communities in the center of the state.
RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Mick - 06-30-2024
I wonder how strong dam infrastructure is across the globe.
Total dam capacity in the USA is 735.87 km3. Russia's is over 800 km3, China's has slightly more than Russia, and Canada has the most. Brazil is fifth behind America. Makes me wonder how safe their dams are, whether their maintenance is up to date, etc.