Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - bl82 - 04-01-2022

Not only that, but I heard several reports from generals/analysts that these T-72 tanks have been substantially upgraded so that they are now better than the current tanks Russia is using. I can't remember all the details, but there have apparently been substantial upgrades in terms of optics and armor.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 04-02-2022

(04-01-2022, 10:58 PM)bl82 Wrote:  Not only that, but I heard several reports from generals/analysts that these T-72 tanks have been substantially upgraded so that they are now better than the current tanks Russia is using.  I can't remember all the details, but there have apparently been substantial upgrades in terms of optics and armor.

That would make sense, I'd assume the tanks have been upgraded to NATO standards in some regards over the years.  Given Ukraine has had a lot of success with a lot of inferior armor against Russia, hopefully that means the tanks would make a brobdingnagian difference on the battlefield.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 04-02-2022

Does anyone have any estimates on total number of Ukrainian forces vs. Russian forces?

Specifically, how many individuals are fighting for Ukraine and how many for Russia? Everyone knew Russia's Army outnumbered Ukraine by something like 1M to 200k before the invasion, but all of Ukraine's Army manpower is fighting in Ukraine, plus many more volunteers who aren't officially counted in the Ukraine Army are fighting, while Russia didn't deploy all of its forces, maybe closer to 40% of them (400k) in Ukraine. This might explain why Russia has leaned on some foreign fighters and contractors to bolster its numbers.

If Russian forces are being pushed back, it would seem the numbers actually fighting are a lot more even and Russia's personnel advantage might not be too great. Throw in poor Russian logistics, command, and control, and any Russian numbers advantage might be overcome by Ukraine's superior precision, execution, and will to fight.

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Just answered my own question to some degree on the Russian side:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-casualties-ukraine-reaching-tipping-point

Anyone know of a source that indicates numbers on the Ukraine side?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-02-2022

The Russian army is organized into battalion tactical groups (BTGs), which comprise a fighting unit of about 600-800 troops including officers, 10 tanks, and 40 infantry vehicles.  It is easier to count BTGs than troops.

Russia has about 170 BTGs in its army, of which, reportedly 120 are deployed into Ukraine, so in terms of sheer numbers, about 100,000 soldiers are deployed.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-02-2022

(04-02-2022, 10:17 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  The Russian army is organized into battalion tactical groups (BTGs), which comprise a fighting unit of about 600-800 troops including officers, 10 tanks, and 40 infantry vehicles.  It is easier to count BTGs than troops.

Russia has about 170 BTGs in its army, of which, reportedly 120 are deployed into Ukraine, so in terms of sheer numbers, about 100,000 soldiers are deployed.

BC

I think it is actually about 1.5 to 1.8 times that. The logistics train is not part of the BTG. There are lots of "support" units in Ukraine that don't fight. For a US unit, a "tooth to tail" ratio of 1.8 to 1 would be a total impossibility, but is seems that is what Russia is trying to use given their initial deployment. The fact that (much to Russia's dismay) lots of the fighting is close to the border has helped.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-02-2022

We are seeing a bit of a "reset" in this war. Russia is reorganizing it's forces, ostensibly to focus effort on the Donbas. The pace of operations has clearly slowed. Ukraine is pushing against the Russians near Kiev, but not with maximum intensity. "If they want to leave, let them" seems to largely be in play, at least as near as I can tell. It is clear that Russia could not sustain the pace of operations along so many different axis. Their logistical problems were clear and the consumption of material undoubtedly much much greater than anticipated. Ukraine undoubtedly has it's own material problems. Some of them are public, but there are for sure many others.

We don't know what, if anything, Ukraine is doing to redeploy it's forces to prepare for a Russian offensive in Donbas and/or the South. Obviously it is difficult to prepare when you have limited information on your enemies intentions, and you probably don't shout your plans from the rooftops. We don't know to what extent Ukraine intends to attempt the relief of Mariupol. If one looks at the map in https://www.axios.com/russia-ukraine-putin-zelensky-war-peace-dombas-7150c156-aae0-46d3-aeda-1193b2c772de.html?utm_medium=partner&utm_source=verizon&utm_content=edit&utm_campaign=subs-partner-vmg it is clear that the hold Russia has in the South Donbas is minimal. The "red line" of occupation there is indeed thin. However, you may not want to commit a large force there that can be isolated by an offensive from the North Donbas coming in behind you. Interesting problem.

One thing I have to keep reminding myself is that the Ukraine is a very big country and is mostly sparsely populated. If you look at a googlemaps overlay of the Donbas you see many, many large fields and relatively few large towns. When one says Russia "occupies" a given area, it doesn't mean there is a Russian soldier every 10 feet. Actually restricting the movement of small groups of people in this setting looks pretty hard to me. This means a conflict in Donbas is going to eat men and material at an alarming rate because securing the "rear areas" will be almost impossible. Neither side has an easy row to hoe, but the side with the better morale can keep at it, and the other side may not be willing to. Not good for Russia IMHO.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-02-2022

This has “frozen conflict” written all over it.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BigJohn043 - 04-02-2022

(04-02-2022, 08:48 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Does anyone have any estimates on total number of Ukrainian forces vs. Russian forces?

Specifically, how many individuals are fighting for Ukraine and how many for Russia? Everyone knew Russia's Army outnumbered Ukraine by something like 1M to 200k before the invasion, but all of Ukraine's Army manpower is fighting in Ukraine, plus many more volunteers who aren't officially counted in the Ukraine Army are fighting, while Russia didn't deploy all of its forces, maybe closer to 40% of them (400k) in Ukraine. This might explain why Russia has leaned on some foreign fighters and contractors to bolster its numbers.

If Russian forces are being pushed back, it would seem the numbers actually fighting are a lot more even and Russia's personnel advantage might not be too great. Throw in poor Russian logistics, command, and control, and any Russian numbers advantage might be overcome by Ukraine's superior precision, execution, and will to fight.

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Just answered my own question to some degree on the Russian side:
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russian-casualties-ukraine-reaching-tipping-point

Anyone know of a source that indicates numbers on the Ukraine side?

The Russian army is about ~900K strong.  But many of those soldiers are conscripts with limited ability to do anything other than man a post.  The initial Russian invasion force was ~200K and that was probably 50-70% of the total power they can project.  They have probably lost 20-30K to this point and are having a hard time just reinforcing existing elements.

The Ukrainian military is somethin like 200-250K.  The wild card is that they have over 10M men of military age.  How many of those have picked up a gun and are fighting is a question mark.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-02-2022

This tweet thread (by someone who knows what they are talking about) seems to support your opinion.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/kofmanmichael/status/1510289334989205506?s=21&t=-s_irdtkFBNVS02ngmFoGw[/tweet]

Worth the read for a comprehensive description of the state of play.  It might be worth having a window with a map of Ukraine open in the background.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BigJohn043 - 04-02-2022

(04-02-2022, 11:49 AM)Goose Wrote:  We are seeing a bit of a "reset" in this war. Russia is reorganizing it's forces, ostensibly to focus effort on the Donbas. The pace of operations has clearly slowed. Ukraine is pushing against the Russians near Kiev, but not with maximum intensity. "If they want to leave, let them" seems to largely be in play, at least as near as I can tell. It is clear that Russia could not sustain the pace of operations along so many different axis. Their logistical problems were clear and the consumption of material undoubtedly much much greater than anticipated. Ukraine undoubtedly has it's own material problems. Some of them are public, but there are for sure many others.

We don't know what, if anything, Ukraine is doing to redeploy it's forces to prepare for a Russian offensive in Donbas and/or the South. Obviously it is difficult to prepare when you have limited information on your enemies intentions, and you probably don't shout your plans from the rooftops. We don't know to what extent Ukraine intends to attempt the relief of Mariupol. If one looks at the map in https://www.axios.com/russia-ukraine-putin-zelensky-war-peace-dombas-7150c156-aae0-46d3-aeda-1193b2c772de.html?utm_medium=partner&utm_source=verizon&utm_content=edit&utm_campaign=subs-partner-vmg it is clear that the hold Russia has in the South Donbas is minimal. The "red line" of occupation there is indeed thin. However, you may not want to commit a large force there that can be isolated by an offensive from the North Donbas coming in behind you. Interesting problem.

One thing I have to keep reminding myself is that the Ukraine is a very big country and is mostly sparsely populated. If you look at a googlemaps overlay of the Donbas you see many, many large fields and relatively few large towns. When one says Russia "occupies" a given area, it doesn't mean there is a Russian soldier every 10 feet. Actually restricting the movement of small groups of people in this setting looks pretty hard to me. This means a conflict in Donbas is going to eat men and material at an alarming rate because securing the "rear areas" will be almost impossible. Neither side has an easy row to hoe, but the side with the better morale can keep at it, and the other side may not be willing to. Not good for Russia IMHO.

Agree with what you wrote above.  UKR has won the battle of Kiev and this war is now moving to a new stage.  What I am watching:

Can UKR push back the Russian positions on the outskirts of Kharkiv from which they can shell the city?  I am sure that Putin wants to keep up the pressure on UKR's second largest city.  It is also in the east and really close to the Russian border.  If they can be pushed back this will be big.

Can UKR take back Kherson?  I am sort of skeptical that Russia can really hold a city the size of Kherson.  UKR looks to have taken back some of the suburbs.  Taking it back would be a big blow against the Russians.

My guess is that there is no real way to relieve Mariupol.  OTOH, it will be interesting to see how long the city can hold out.  My guess is they can hold back as long as they have ammo.  No idea if they are getting ammo in.....

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 04-02-2022

Mariupol is such an incredible part of this war, and I have no idea how long they can last.  I've heard people say it might be weeks.  When it comes to ammo, it might depend how resourceful they are, they very well could be scavenging at a decent rate.  I think water and food supply is another important factor, though If it rained recently that might help them.  Given how long the city has held out, why did anyone ever think Kyiv would fall?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-02-2022

Everything I have been reading, even sources relatively bullish on Ukraine's chances, predict that Mariupol will fall within days. Of course, they have been saying this for a couple weeks. IMHO, since the defenders know that surrender means death, I do not think it will be taken and secured for some time.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-02-2022

An optimistic assessment:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1509930735481896962?s=21&t=-s_irdtkFBNVS02ngmFoGw[/tweet]

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-02-2022

(04-02-2022, 05:34 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Everything I have been reading, even sources relatively bullish on Ukraine's chances, predict that Mariupol will fall within days. Of course, they have been saying this for a couple weeks. IMHO, since the defenders know that surrender means death, I do not think it will be taken and secured for some time.

I don't know the details, but I am pretty sure Russia doesn't want to take Mariupol street by street. The casualties would be just too high. The large number of civilians still present is an issue but not a big one for Russia. Russia will just keep pounding. They assume eventually Mariupol will surrender. I wouldn't bet on that myself.

My hope would be that Ukraine could cut the coast road (M14) South of Mariupol and possibly panic the Russians between that point and Mariupol. That might end the siege. Problem is, you don't want to commit a force that itself could be surrounded. You have to be sure you can keep the corridor open. That said, Russia has a pretty thin hold along that part of the coast. For some reason they never widened it, probably due to resistance, as being as shallow as they are seems inadvisable to me.

Kherson the city is one thing. Ukraine can probably clear at least most of it. However, they are committed to clearing the entire Oblast. They really, really need to do that for the future of Ukraine. They need to securely control both banks of the river and recover the transportation hubs (rail and road) in the Oblast. Now is probably not the time to do that IMHO, as that is going to be a real heavy lift. Secure Donbas first and/or cut the coast road. Right now, as long as Mariupol (or another nearby area) is Ukrainian, Russia can't use that road. Make sure it stays that way. This makes Russia's supply problem in Kherson Oblast much worse. Note that there is no "coastal railroad". The rail link is well inland and not in Russian control ATM.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-02-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ozkaterji/status/1510281020712624133?s=21&t=BXjTrj2uVkvSS2C7ZXmHFw[/tweet]

Dang.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 04-03-2022

To whoever was claiming they aren't certain Russians have targeted civilians, you can see this. Makes me think of the Band of Brothers episode titled "Why We Fight." For those not familiar, it's when American 82nd Airborne Forces discovered Nazi death camps.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/status/1510524535879131141[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-03-2022

Pretty clear now that the 45k body bags and crematorium trucks were not intended for Russian soldiers, not when they were also bringing their parade uniforms to wear after their three day campaign. And US intelligence prewar had warned that Russia would execute civilians in occupied territory.

The "lucky" ones (probably only women, children, elderly) of course have been relocated to Siberia. 

Ukraine will not easily accept a negotiated settlement after this. This is not Afghanistan for Russia, its many times worse. As long as they have a presence on Ukrainian soil, they will be sending their soldiers into a meat grinder.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 04-03-2022

(04-03-2022, 08:16 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:   As long as they (Russians) have a presence on Ukrainian soil, they will be sending their soldiers into a meat grinder.

As they should be. This behavior cannot under any circumstances be tolerated in our world.

I'm a non-violent person by nature, but after learning what ISIS fighters were being indoctrinated to do, my conclusion was we have to kill these people because they threaten everyone's lives.

I feel a little uncomfortable saying "these people should die" for not doing what I want, when they can turn around and say "you should die" for not doing what they want, but the leaders of the species must assert themselves to stamp out those who will subjugate people with force and violence. 

From there, it obviously gets complicated in the struggle for power and wealth, but we need  a baseline of what humanity will and won't accept. What Russia is doing in Ukraine can't be accepted at any level ever.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 04-03-2022

As Ukrainians continue to retake territories, we see further evidence of heinous war crimes, which had previously been implied, but now see visual evidence.  There is a distinct difference in peoples reaction between reading about something and seeing it.  There is a distinct difference between how civilians are being treated in areas that Russia had to fight hard to capture, vs areas that essentially rolled over and gave up, like Kherson.  We see protests by civilians in Kherson, and while there are surely war crimes being committed in these areas, it doesn't seem to be to the level of Irpin and Bucha.  We have heard stories of Mariupol, and I imagine it is far worse than Bucha/Iprin, but we might not see evidence for a long time, since Ukrainian forces are far from breaking that siege in that area.  

All that being said, I think the big question is how the west will respond.  It's possible the recent commitment of providing tanks and other armor are a response to the war crimes, but since it happened as the reports were coming out, we will not see the public's response to these images, and I wonder if it will lead to a further call for the west to do more.  Is there a line, besides a direct attack on NATO land, that would lead to direct engagement by the west against Russia?  It seems clear every day that the comparisons between Russia and Nazi Germany, as well as Putin to Hitler, are growing stronger and stronger, and I try not to use that comparison very often.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-03-2022

(04-03-2022, 09:09 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  From there, it obviously gets complicated in the struggle for power and wealth, but we need  a baseline of what humanity will and won't accept. What Russia is doing in Ukraine can't be accepted at any level ever.

Totally agree, and this was true before they executed civilians. Russia has absolutely no justification for being in Ukraine. Ukraine didn't attack them, didn't facilitate attacks upon them, and in no way threatened the prosperity or independence of Russia. This is totally a war of choice. The entire action by Russia is a war crime from the start.
The rest of the world, mostly the EU and the US, need to make sure Russia loses this war. How we are going to do that without widening the war is a tough problem, but we need to solve that problem. There are other nations out there who are looking on and right now probably believe that Russia is only guilty of under-performing militarily. It has to be made clear that one can't just invade a neighbor because you "feel like it". If you do, you must pay an unacceptable price. Otherwise, it will keep happening.
Accusations of war crimes are irrelevant if the nation committing them can and will shield the "bad actors". There are accusations that Ukraine has in one case at least executed POWs. That too needs to be investigated, but there is reason to believe Ukraine would go along with it and abide by the result. Unless Russia is defeated and Putin removed I doubt Russia will do likewise.

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