Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 05-17-2023

US officials who inspected the Patriot system in Kyiv seem to think the system had minimal damage and the radar didn't take any damage, and it won't need to be taken out of service for repair.  I think based on all of that, the idea that a launcher or another part of the system was damaged due to falling debris makes some sense.  I'd assume if one launcher was taken out for repairs, the system would still mostly work as a whole.  Good news overall it seems.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-17-2023

(05-17-2023, 08:12 AM)Treefence Wrote:  US officials who inspected the Patriot system in Kyiv seem to think the system had minimal damage and the radar didn't take any damage, and it won't need to be taken out of service for repair.  I think based on all of that, the idea that a launcher or another part of the system was damaged due to falling debris makes some sense.  I'd assume if one launcher was taken out for repairs, the system would still mostly work as a whole.  Good news overall it seems.

Do you have a link for the report?

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 05-17-2023

(05-17-2023, 08:25 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(05-17-2023, 08:12 AM)Treefence Wrote:  US officials who inspected the Patriot system in Kyiv seem to think the system had minimal damage and the radar didn't take any damage, and it won't need to be taken out of service for repair.  I think based on all of that, the idea that a launcher or another part of the system was damaged due to falling debris makes some sense.  I'd assume if one launcher was taken out for repairs, the system would still mostly work as a whole.  Good news overall it seems.

Do you have a link for the report?

Here you go! 

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-05-17-23/h_522e70738eedce408bdd04304b8dede5

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - lex24 - 05-17-2023

I don’t thread on this topic often.  But  here is a not so simple question- how does this end?

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 05-17-2023

(05-17-2023, 09:19 AM)lex24 Wrote:  I don’t thread on this topic often.  But  here is a not so simple question- how does this end?

Goose has weighed in on this a few times, but I'll give my best answer.  

The two extremes at this point are both not very likely for now, which are a total Ukrainian victory, taking back all Russian occupied lands, and restoring their legal borders.  On the other side, Ukraine isn't close to collapsing militarily, but a total Russian victory would be complete conquering of all of Ukraine, and likely installing a puppet regime, like Belarus is currently.  

Given neither side seems likely to compromise, as Ukraine will not give up their territory, and Putin will not give up on this war.  So it's likely this war goes on for a long time.  Theoretically with the 2024 elections coming up, and the current economic turmoil in the US could lead to drastic change in American support, which could also divide the west, and limit other countries supporting Ukraine, which could eventually lead to Ukraine having to negotiate again, potentially a Minsk III.  

Ukraine could also take significant land back in their upcoming counter offensive, and the wild card would be if they are able to start pushing into Crimea.  If they did that, or took back significant land in other areas, putting Russia in a position where they control less territory than they did on February 23rd 2022, then it's possible Putin is removed from power, and then many scenarios are possible, including things being much worse in Ukraine or being much better.  

Overall, I think most scenarios are still on the table, but I guess the most likely situation is that it doesn't end anytime soon, and if Ukraine can continue to fight, then this probably doesn't end until Putin is out of the picture, either by natural causes or other.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - lex24 - 05-17-2023

(05-17-2023, 09:42 AM)Treefence Wrote:  

(05-17-2023, 09:19 AM)lex24 Wrote:  I don’t thread on this topic often.  But  here is a not so simple question- how does this end?

Goose has weighed in on this a few times, but I'll give my best answer.  

The two extremes at this point are both not very likely for now, which are a total Ukrainian victory, taking back all Russian occupied lands, and restoring their legal borders.  On the other side, Ukraine isn't close to collapsing militarily, but a total Russian victory would be complete conquering of all of Ukraine, and likely installing a puppet regime, like Belarus is currently.  

Given neither side seems likely to compromise, as Ukraine will not give up their territory, and Putin will not give up on this war.  So it's likely this war goes on for a long time.  Theoretically with the 2024 elections coming up, and the current economic turmoil in the US could lead to drastic change in American support, which could also divide the west, and limit other countries supporting Ukraine, which could eventually lead to Ukraine having to negotiate again, potentially a Minsk III.  

Ukraine could also take significant land back in their upcoming counter offensive, and the wild card would be if they are able to start pushing into Crimea.  If they did that, or took back significant land in other areas, putting Russia in a position where they control less territory than they did on February 23rd 2022, then it's possible Putin is removed from power, and then many scenarios are possible, including things being much worse in Ukraine or being much better.  

Overall, I think most scenarios are still on the table, but I guess the most likely situation is that it doesn't end anytime soon, and if Ukraine can continue to fight, then this probably doesn't end until Putin is out of the picture, either by natural causes or other.

Depressing.  But thanks.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-17-2023

(05-17-2023, 10:35 AM)lex24 Wrote:  

(05-17-2023, 09:42 AM)Treefence Wrote:  

(05-17-2023, 09:19 AM)lex24 Wrote:  I don’t thread on this topic often.  But  here is a not so simple question- how does this end?

Goose has weighed in on this a few times, but I'll give my best answer.  

The two extremes at this point are both not very likely for now, which are a total Ukrainian victory, taking back all Russian occupied lands, and restoring their legal borders.  On the other side, Ukraine isn't close to collapsing militarily, but a total Russian victory would be complete conquering of all of Ukraine, and likely installing a puppet regime, like Belarus is currently.  

Given neither side seems likely to compromise, as Ukraine will not give up their territory, and Putin will not give up on this war.  So it's likely this war goes on for a long time.  Theoretically with the 2024 elections coming up, and the current economic turmoil in the US could lead to drastic change in American support, which could also divide the west, and limit other countries supporting Ukraine, which could eventually lead to Ukraine having to negotiate again, potentially a Minsk III.  

Ukraine could also take significant land back in their upcoming counter offensive, and the wild card would be if they are able to start pushing into Crimea.  If they did that, or took back significant land in other areas, putting Russia in a position where they control less territory than they did on February 23rd 2022, then it's possible Putin is removed from power, and then many scenarios are possible, including things being much worse in Ukraine or being much better.  

Overall, I think most scenarios are still on the table, but I guess the most likely situation is that it doesn't end anytime soon, and if Ukraine can continue to fight, then this probably doesn't end until Putin is out of the picture, either by natural causes or other.

Depressing.  But thanks.

IMO a good analysis. Unfortunately, that is just "how it is". Only quibble is that Russia fully intends to absorb Belarus when the current "president" dies. That has been known for a while, and supposedly agreed to. After all this fighting, I can't imagine Russia would not do the same with Ukraine if they fully "win".

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 05-17-2023

Goose, yeah makes sense on Belarus, but I do wonder if Lukashenko's death could also lead to a minor conflict in Belarus, or at the very least an insurgency, given the people of Belarus won't be too excited to join Russia.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-17-2023

(05-17-2023, 11:12 AM)Treefence Wrote:  Goose, yeah makes sense on Belarus, but I do wonder if Lukashenko's death could also lead to a minor conflict in Belarus, or at the very least an insurgency, given the people of Belarus won't be too excited to join Russia.

This situation is actually a major can of worms. I think many are rooting for Lukashenko to recover, because nobody wants to be forced to "play their hand" right now. The pro-democracy forces don't want to allow Putin to absorb their country, but it is unclear they have the military support to prevent it. There are many Lukashenko-want-to-be people in the current government of Belarus that may think they can cut a deal with Putin and get their wish. Putin OTOH started with a "deal" that would allow him to "unite" Belarus with Russia upon Lukashenko's death. Is he willing to postpone (perhaps forever) that event because he is too deeply involved in Ukraine and has no forces to "make it happen"? If Putin does invade Belarus and the pro-democracy forces ask for NATO help (like Ukraine got), what does NATO do? What does Ukraine do, as having Belarus to the north is better than having Russia to the north, and getting Russia involved in a war there arguably helps Ukraine? On top of all that there are many people in the Belarusian army that are "loyal" to many different political ideals, but who all agree that they don't want their country taken over by force. What will they do? From their point of view, if they are ever going to fight Russia, now is the time when Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and Belarus might get NATO (and Ukrainian for that matter) help. The Baltic States and Poland also really don't want Russia to actually occupy Belarus. On top of that, even if Russia does "take over", there may be an insurgency.

This scenario is going to play out eventually. Many hope it is not "soon". Who knows?

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - GK3 - 05-17-2023

(05-17-2023, 11:57 AM)Goose Wrote:  

(05-17-2023, 11:12 AM)Treefence Wrote:  Goose, yeah makes sense on Belarus, but I do wonder if Lukashenko's death could also lead to a minor conflict in Belarus, or at the very least an insurgency, given the people of Belarus won't be too excited to join Russia.

This situation is actually a major can of worms. I think many are rooting for Lukashenko to recover, because nobody wants to be forced to "play their hand" right now. The pro-democracy forces don't want to allow Putin to absorb their country, but it is unclear they have the military support to prevent it. There are many Lukashenko-want-to-be people in the current government of Belarus that may think they can cut a deal with Putin and get their wish. Putin OTOH started with a "deal" that would allow him to "unite" Belarus with Russia upon Lukashenko's death. Is he willing to postpone (perhaps forever) that event because he is too deeply involved in Ukraine and has no forces to "make it happen"? If Putin does invade Belarus and the pro-democracy forces ask for NATO help (like Ukraine got), what does NATO do? What does Ukraine do, as having Belarus to the north is better than having Russia to the north, and getting Russia involved in a war there arguably helps Ukraine? On top of all that there are many people in the Belarusian army that are "loyal" to many different political ideals, but who all agree that they don't want their country taken over by force. What will they do? From their point of view, if they are ever going to fight Russia, now is the time when Russia is bogged down in Ukraine and Belarus might get NATO (and Ukrainian for that matter) help. The Baltic States and Poland also really don't want Russia to actually occupy Belarus. On top of that, even if Russia does "take over", there may be an insurgency.

This scenario is going to play out eventually. Many hope it is not "soon". Who knows?

Another question for you.  What is up with South Africa?  Have they decided to to become part of the Russian orbit?  Seems like they risk a lot economically if Europe and USA apply sanctions, but maybe their "help" doesn't amount to much.  Secondly, is there any way to apply additional real economic pressure to Russia?  There are so many holes in the system, maybe the answer is No.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-18-2023

When the British coalition government was teetering, I worried that Rishi Sunak wouldn’t be pro-Ukraine. That was one worry I could have jettisoned. Now he’s pushing for F-16s. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/17/world/europe/ukraine-f-16-biden-netherlands-britain.html

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-18-2023

(05-17-2023, 04:54 PM)GK3 Wrote:  Another question for you.  What is up with South Africa?  Have they decided to to become part of the Russian orbit?  Seems like they risk a lot economically if Europe and USA apply sanctions, but maybe their "help" doesn't amount to much.

It is partly that ANC always received at least "moral support" from Russia, so there is a link there. Russia is also operating actively in Africa and therefore is a force to be at least considered there. Mostly, IMO it is that political stability is South Africa isn't real good and they are looking for anybody who will help the existing government without asking for transparency and reform. Russia will do that, the "west" won't.

Quote:Secondly, is there any way to apply additional real economic pressure to Russia?  There are so many holes in the system, maybe the answer is No.

As long as there are nations that don't mind the optics of buying Russian oil, probably not much. We can and should do whatever is possible to eliminate the tanker fleet that services that trade. Lots of money laundering going on. If we confiscate some ships as well as cargoes that will at least run the transportation costs up, which will help. As WW I showed, sanctions often take longer to work than anticipated, and the mechanism is often not the originally intended one.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 05-18-2023

Interesting, in this CNN article they are saying the Biden administration wouldn't block other countries from giving Ukraine F-16s, but also that the Patriot air defense systems shot down at least 1 Russian jet in the past weeks.  The only confirmed Russian jet losses recently were the SU-34 and SU-35 over Bryansk, that everyone assumed was friendly fire.  If this was actually a Patriot kill, then that's an impressive range, and might also explain why Russia has been aggressively going for the systems recently.  

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/18/politics/us-allies-f-16-jets-ukraine/index.html

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-18-2023

(05-18-2023, 05:33 PM)Treefence Wrote:  Interesting, in this CNN article they are saying the Biden administration wouldn't block other countries from giving Ukraine F-16s, but also that the Patriot air defense systems shot down at least 1 Russian jet in the past weeks.  The only confirmed Russian jet losses recently were the SU-34 and SU-35 over Bryansk, that everyone assumed was friendly fire.  If this was actually a Patriot kill, then that's an impressive range, and might also explain why Russia has been aggressively going for the systems recently.  

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/18/politics/us-allies-f-16-jets-ukraine/index.html

The air distance from Kiev to Bryansk is about 391km (as the missile flies). The maximum range of a Patriot missile (of any type) is 160 km. If the Russian aircraft was shot down near Bryansk city, it is too far for a Patriot in Kiev. If it was right at the Ukrainian border, it is just barely in range of a PAC-2. The aircraft would have needed to be above about 6500 feet for the Patriot to "see" it in horizon scan mode. When a Patriot is targeting ballistic missiles, it would normally not use horizon scanning, and if it did it would be at a very low priority. So, while it is barely possible, it seems improbable. There may be another Patriot that is located closer that would have had an easier shot. I am kind of skeptical that a Patriot shot down a Russian aircraft in Russian air space. That seems a bit out of the ROE we make them operate under. While it makes eminent sense to kill a possible missile launcher, if it is inside Russia it is a "no go" as I understand it.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - rogpodge - 05-19-2023

Quote:Another question for you.  What is up with South Africa?  Have they decided to to become part of the Russian orbit?  Seems like they risk a lot economically if Europe and USA apply sanctions, but maybe their "help" doesn't amount to much.  Secondly, is there any way to apply additional real economic pressure to Russia?  There are so many holes in the system, maybe the answer is No.

South Africa's problems ultimately come down to energy production. Russia is the place to go for oil and gas exports. The US is a net exporter again, but at this point we're a follower, not a leader. With the Germans killing nuclear and going back to coal, and the need for the US to prioritize sending them natural gas, Russia is the natural place to turn for South Africa (and India....).

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 05-19-2023

Finally we have some action on western fighters. Biden endorses training on F16s. Better late then never. 

https://apnews.com/article/g7-japan-hiroshima-ukraine-biden-kishida-3ac64076f63786490a1b062f9a408408

When fighters are delivered, how many, and who provides them to be worked out as training is ongoing. 
Biden told the leaders that decisions on when, how many, and who will provide the fourth-generation fighter jets for Ukraine to use in battle will be made in the months ahead while the training is underway.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-19-2023

ATACMS next?  Other than launching nuclear weapons, does Russia even have the capability to respond to the escalation?

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-19-2023

(05-19-2023, 07:49 AM)gocard14 Wrote:  Finally we have some action on western fighters. Biden endorses training on F16s. Better late then never. 

https://apnews.com/article/g7-japan-hiroshima-ukraine-biden-kishida-3ac64076f63786490a1b062f9a408408

When fighters are delivered, how many, and who provides them to be worked out as training is ongoing. 
Biden told the leaders that decisions on when, how many, and who will provide the fourth-generation fighter jets for Ukraine to use in battle will be made in the months ahead while the training is underway.
[size=1]Biden told the leaders that decisions on when, how many, and who will provide the fourth-generation fighter jets for Ukraine to use in battle will be made in the months ahead while the training is underway.[/size]
Biden told the leaders that decisions on when, how many, and who will provide the fourth-generation fighter jets for Ukraine to use in battle will be made in the months ahead while the training is underw

Belgium, Denmark, The Dutch Republic, and Norway are the best candidates. Norway has 64 F-16 that it took out of service in 2022. These are well-maintained aircraft that are all of the same "Rev" (except for 2 seaters). Theoretically they have sold 32 of them to Romania. This is probably the largest homogeneous group available. The Netherlands has 48 F-16 operational. Denmark has "around 30" aircraft available. Belgium has "around 50". The Belgian ones are upgraded to the AM standard, which makes them "similar" to the C/D versions. The Netherlands is getting F-35s, "soon" so they can probably let theirs go without much grief. Belgium isn't quite as far down that road, but it isn't clear to what extent they intend to continue operating their F-16s in the interim :-) OTOH theirs are upgraded. Greece and Portugal don't have enough airplanes to really "count" much in this potlatch, and Greece arguably needs what it has.

No matter what happens here, if the F-16s are delivered as a "mixed set", it will be a nightmare maintenance and training wise. Beggars can't be choosers, but keeping straight which jammers go on which aircraft, what the maximum bomb load is, which aircraft have software for which weapons will be a mess. To some degree NATO has that issue as well, but since each nation is responsible to support it's own aircraft, there is a plan to provide the support. The various units intend to operate as units, not mixed together. Their mechanics and maintenance people know their airplanes. Ukraine will not be in that state.

Ideally, Ukraine would send pilots/maintenance crews to the US who will train on the current standard of the ANG and take their planes back to Ukraine with them. That isn't happening, so what does happen is going to be a bit of a mess. Keep in mind that training areas in Europe are actually quite limited, and that by September the weather really starts to bite into the flyable days, particularly for rookies. There are simulators, but that isn't a sufficient background, especially for guys who are going directly from training to combat.

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 05-19-2023

ATACMS next?  Other than launching nuclear weapons, does Russia even have the capability to respond to the escalation?

---

RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 05-19-2023

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-does-not-confirm-russian-223000075.html

Proves nothing, as confirm/not confirm is a bit of a game. It is a data point though. If he had confirmed it and given details, it would have been nice :-).

---