Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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+--- Thread: Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine (/thread-23071.html)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 06-23-2023

That video is surreal.

I can’t stop watching the Enforcer channel tonight. Feels like the most important world events of my life and it’s endlessly fascinating.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 06-23-2023

So you were not alive in ‘89 or you think this is bigger than that?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 06-24-2023

(06-23-2023, 10:17 PM)TrumpCard Wrote:  So you were not alive in ‘89 or you think this is bigger than that?

Oh, this is way bigger to me. The fall of the Berlin Wall, etc. was a popular uprising. This is a military challenge to seize control of a country by force, that is engaged in hostile actions to seize another country against its will that is being backed by NATO countries.

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And it is now ON!

Putin has emerged to back his generals, which means this is now officially Putin vs. Prigozhin and a full blown civil war is upon us!

Wagner is gaining support from more Russian forces. Will be interesting to see how the Russian people respond. It looks like it is just going to be a military and security forces war. The people will just watch. But I would imagine if Prigozhin tells people in Russia not to sign up for RU military, he will get even more support from the population.

Will also be interesting to see what happens in the information war and which media structures go with Putin and which with Prigozhin.

The highest rated program on a screen tonight will be Wagners rolling into Moscow on any number of platforms. Get yer popcorn and favorite libations ready!

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Snorlax94 - 06-24-2023

I would caution against calling this “awesome” or entertainment, or being glib.

In 24 hours, a person like Prigozhin could be in command of the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. Long-term instability in Russia could  lead to losing track of (or selling, or giving away) Russia’s vast stores of weapons of mass destruction.

Civil way could lead to the deaths of thousands if not millions of innocent people.

I want peace and freedom, for the Ukrainian people and Russian, and maybe recent developments can help bring about peace, but this is a serious moment.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - rogpodge - 06-24-2023

(06-24-2023, 05:27 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote:  I would caution against calling this “awesome” or entertainment, or being glib.

In 24 hours, a person like Prigozhin could be in command of the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. Long-term instability in Russia could  lead to losing track of (or selling, or giving away) Russia’s vast stores of weapons of mass destruction.

Civil way could lead to the deaths of thousands if not millions of innocent people.

The Russians are unique, and have never been democratically ruled (unless you believe that the People's Democratic anything is, in fact, a democracy). Even under Yeltsin, the transition without Western aid, lead to the kleptocracy we see today. State controlled enterprises were corruptly raided. The Russian people saw what was happening and rejected poorly implemented republican or democratic systems that lead to Chechnya in favor of strength. 

A group of mercenaries is not some democratizing force. There is no indication that the Wagner group has any pro-Western bias. They were pushed against the wall and responded. They also have a score to settle with the US for that incident in Syria. I'll wait to see how this plays out, but there are plenty of reasons to be cautious.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-24-2023

(06-24-2023, 06:29 AM)rogpodge Wrote:  

(06-24-2023, 05:27 AM)Snorlax94 Wrote:  I would caution against calling this “awesome” or entertainment, or being glib.

In 24 hours, a person like Prigozhin could be in command of the world’s largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. Long-term instability in Russia could  lead to losing track of (or selling, or giving away) Russia’s vast stores of weapons of mass destruction.

Civil way could lead to the deaths of thousands if not millions of innocent people.

The Russians are unique, and have never been democratically ruled (unless you believe that the People's Democratic anything is, in fact, a democracy). Even under Yeltsin, the transition without Western aid, lead to the kleptocracy we see today. State controlled enterprises were corruptly raided. The Russian people saw what was happening and rejected poorly implemented republican or democratic systems that lead to Chechnya in favor of strength. 

A group of mercenaries is not some democratizing force. There is no indication that the Wagner group has any pro-Western bias. They were pushed against the wall and responded. They also have a score to settle with the US for that incident in Syria. I'll wait to see how this plays out, but there are plenty of reasons to be cautious.

All very true. This is the bad vs the bad. No obvious way to select the "less bad" IMO. Prigozhin should have no chance, but given the sclerotic response by the MOD anything may be possible. I will believe we truly have a civil war here when we see some significant casualty figures. So far, it could still be posturing. IMO Prigozhin can't run the country. He is well suited to running a mercenary force, but I doubt he has the political ability to herd the cats that make up the Russian state. That is not to say he won't get to try. Yeltsin didn't have the ability either, as events demonstrated, but he too got the chance. IMO, no matter what happens in this "contest", it isn't good for Russia, at least in any near term sense. There is going to be an increase in state oppression no matter who prevails, and if nobody prevails the resulting fragmentation and anarchy can indeed be seriously bad for the world. The control of Russia's nuclear forces may indeed be "at risk" if a military conflict breaks out.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/freaked-russia-shocked-military-coup-121945733.html
Interesting take from various random people. Nobody seems to really know what is happening, and certainly not why.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 06-24-2023

Could there be a military uprising in Belarus? Does anyone know if the elected leader of Belarus is tied to this would be insurgent effort?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672618934418243585[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-24-2023

And thats it? It's all done?

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672657882117013504?s=20[/tweet]

This whole thing is so bizarre. Don't think there is any good modern historical parallel.

Not sure how it can all go back to regularly scheduled Ukraine war after Prigozhin took a city and high level MOD hostages, shot down multiple Russian aircraft, but I guess it's now let bygones be bygones?

Wherever we go from here Putin's authority is shot, the Army and Wagner are still going to hate each other, maybe some FSB colonels are getting ideas. No clue what happens next but I am certain this was not some grand Putin plan.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 06-24-2023

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-24-2023

(06-24-2023, 10:33 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  And thats it? It's all done?

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672657882117013504?s=20

This whole thing is so bizarre. Don't think there is any good modern historical parallel.

Not sure how it can all go back to regularly scheduled Ukraine war after Prigozhin took a city and high level MOD hostages, shot down multiple Russian aircraft, but I guess it's now let bygones be bygones?

Wherever we go from here Putin's authority is shot, the Army and Wagner are still going to hate each other, maybe some FSB colonels are getting ideas. No clue what happens next but I am certain this was not some grand Putin plan.

I am glad you are certain of that. I am not. Indeed, as you say, this is bizarre. However, a possible parallel might be the coup attempt against Erdoğan where he was suspected of actually organizing it himself. The (alleged) purpose in that case was to start a coup and see who joins. This causes everybody who is in opposition to declare themselves and when the coup fails you know who to kill/jail. It is also very probable we do not yet know the whole story.

One does wonder how the various elements of the Russian military will trust each other and also will trust Wagner. Maybe it is simply a matter that Prigozhin wanted to get paid. Unless he was indeed acting under Putin's instructions, I would expect his life expectancy to be in question.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-24-2023

Well, Prigozhin to Belarus. A "deal" was quickly "brokered" by Lukashenko. Anybody who believes that is the whole story probably has also bought several bridges. There are lots of possible scenarios. One of them is that Prigozhin started a coup expecting to get lots of support from the Russian military/people. When that didn't happen he realized he was bound to lose and therefore "took a deal" and is moving to Belarus. IMO, this is the least likely scenario. Under those conditions, his life won't be worth a farthing. If Putin doesn't kill him, Lukashenko will. Why would Lukashenko host a guy who has a record of staging a coup, given that he is much weaker than Putin and therefore an easier target? No way is he doing this "on his own".
A more likely scenario IMHO is that Putin sent Prigozhin to Belarus so he could attack Ukraine from the north with a newly constructed Wagner PMC. Since he is in Belarus, he won't be subject to the Russian military, so he gets what he wanted there. Lukashenko doesn't have to keep fending off Russian requests to attack Ukraine, because Wagner is doing it, not him. It also gives Russia a lever to pull if Belarus decides to go it's own way, as some of the (foolish in retrospect) people in Belarus were tweeting. They have "outed" themselves, and better have an escape plan already in action.
Of course, it could also be that Russia agreed to give back to Prigozhin the money of his that they "located" and were going to keep. That may have been the "price" of him giving up the coup and that he intends to leave Belarus ASAP and go to someplace in Africa/Middle East where he and his money will be safe. This, and other strange things that none of us know about, may have been the actual "driver" in these events. As I said, things in Russia are never as they seem.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-24-2023

Zero percent chance Putin engineered a coup against himself so he can send Prigozhin to Belarus to attack Ukraine. This is some Putin as master strategist brainworms. All he would have had to do is ask him to do that, and then we wouldn't have scenes of crowds cheering for a rival, Prigozhin, multiple downed aircraft and dead airmen, torn up roads and bridges in a panic, Russians buying wheat and fleeing from the cities.

If you're going to stage a coup with a willing stooge to play the role as couper, why let them advance on Moscow while you try to stop them in a panic? Why let them shoot down all those planes? Why make an announcement calling the coupers traitors and stabbing the nation in the back, only to pardon them hours later?

I think it makes sense that Prigozhin did this because he knew the MOD deadline to subordinate Wagner MOD was coming up, he was at height of his power, and he had to make a play before giving it up. He succeeded enough to force some uncomfortable choices but maybe realized he never could actually take Moscow or if he did assume actual control of the state.

The deal as announced by Kremlin seems strange for Prigozhin to accept, surely we will learn more as time goes on. But a Putin 4D chess match, definitely not.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-24-2023

(06-24-2023, 05:42 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Zero percent chance Putin engineered a coup against himself so he can send Prigozhin to Belarus to attack Ukraine. This is some Putin as master strategist brainworms. All he would have had to do is ask him to do that, and then we wouldn't have scenes of crowds cheering for a rival, Prigozhin, multiple downed aircraft and dead airmen, torn up roads and bridges in a panic, Russians buying wheat and fleeing from the cities.

If you're going to stage a coup with a willing stooge to play the role as couper, why let them advance on Moscow while you try to stop them in a panic? Why let them shoot down all those planes? Why make an announcement calling the coupers traitors and stabbing the nation in the back, only to pardon them hours later?

I think it makes sense that Prigozhin did this because he knew the MOD deadline to subordinate Wagner MOD was coming up, he was at height of his power, and he had to make a play before giving it up. He succeeded enough to force some uncomfortable choices but maybe realized he never could actually take Moscow or if he did assume actual control of the state.

The deal as announced by Kremlin seems strange for Prigozhin to accept, surely we will learn more as time goes on. But a Putin 4D chess match, definitely not.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-gangster-reign-chaos-finally-192854865.html
I think this summarizes it well. You ask a lot of "whys" that I can't answer. One of them is why call someone a traitor and call for their punishment and then pardon them almost immediately? I don't know, but certainly one possibility is that there was already an agreement in place. That may be "why" he pardoned  Prigozhin almost immediately. Why didn't the troops in Rostov offer any resistance? Who knows? It may be that Prigozhin indeed was attempting a coup and had second thoughts.

It is also very possible there was more to it than that. Why did the Russian air force not strike Wagner's moving convoy from the air and simply obliterate it? Even the Russians can do that. Instead they sent a couple of helicopters that shot up a few vehicles and then left. One was apparently shot down. Not much of an effort if you really are "worried". While it isn't 4D chess, Putin did secure his original lock on power by arranging to have Russian apartment houses blown up that he could blame on the Chechens. He also sent Russian troops up against Chechens that he had arranged to inform about the battle plan. Getting Russians killed to make his next actions look "necessary" is not new to him.

As far as simply asking Prigozhin to go to Belarus and operate Wagner from there, it is probable that Belarus (at least lots of them) would not accept a Putin ally who is virtually part of the Russian military coming to their country and attacking Ukraine. Now that Prigozhin is no longer "Putin's man", maybe it is more palatable to the Belorussians and their President. The Wagner rank and file also may not have wanted this to happen. Now, there is a "reason". The point I am making here is that there are lots of scenarios about all this and nobody yet actually knows what the real "story" is. We may never.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-24-2023

Wasn't just one helicopter.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672709307073196034?s=20[/tweet]

I agree that the whole thing is hard to parse and there are a lot of unknowns still.

Rob Lee has had good insights on this conflict since the beginning and I think this thread has good takes reflective of the known facts.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672743555624755200?s=20[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - needle - 06-24-2023

I think the kids call *this* cope: https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672779584184684546

My analyst fav-of-the-moment put it this way: “we were all bamboozled.”

I think Progozhin is alive because he is considered useful, still. Goose’s theory is brilliant. All I think I know is that Progozhin is a liar with real enemies in Russia’s MOD, so lots of reasons to (maybe) sideline him without battlefield strategery as a necessary explanation.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 06-25-2023

Well, well, well, if this is true...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672890410547441665[/tweet]

Surovikin is tight with Prigozhin. This would mean Prigozhin is getting his people installed in the MOD, which effectively makes Putin a figurehead only. Prigozhin can bide his time in Belarus and then take over Russia when Putin is further weakened. People in Russia now see him as a hero who can come in and save the country.

Prigozhin backing down only makes sense if Shoigu and Gerasimov are replaced with guys of his choosing. And if that is the case, Progizhin is a strategic genius. You kind of knew he was a savvy operator just based on how Wagner took Bakhmut, but he's also a master communicator and politician who knew all the buttons to push and how to create an image of himself that makes him look strong. He's a terrible person, but it's so clearly obvious he's way smarter than Putin.

One thing that has become abundantly clear to me over this weekend is that Russia is even more of a mafia state than I even realized. There are no real elections, no real loyalty to anyone. Just a bunch of factions that were barely held together by Putin due to crushing corruption everywhere. Everything is decided by money and force. Putin is like a Paul Castellano before John Gotti arranged for his murder and took over the Gambino Crime family in New York. And Prigozhin is like Gotti.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 06-25-2023

And now I'm seeing reports that Wagner forces are being distributed into the Russian Armed Forces. Wut?  This seems absolutely insane. Yer going to put guys who were about to overthrow the government of a country from which they are taking orders on the ground in Ukraine? Uh, no. Wagners are going to challenge the regular Russian military command structure and get rank and file to question their leadership.

There is simply no way Russia is going to sustain this war with Ukraine with all the turmoil and disfunction roiling Russia right now. It might even be a good idea for Ukraine forces to stay put for a while and continue racking up arms and training their forces, just to see what happens to the Russian forces in Ukraine. It seems Moscow elites have much larger fish to fry right now than worry about Ukraine.

I can't imagine too many Russian soldiers thinking they are going to stick around for this nonsense and continue putting their lives on the line. What, exactly are they fighting for now, especially after Prigozhin said the war was all based on lies and his former forces are all integrated into the Russian army.

Russia in Ukraine looks like a house of cards to me right now.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gailtate - 06-25-2023

(06-25-2023, 06:10 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Well, well, well, if this is true...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672890410547441665[/tweet]

Surovikin is tight with Prigozhin. This would mean Prigozhin is getting his people installed in the MOD, which effectively makes Putin a figurehead only. Prigozhin can bide his time in Belarus and then take over Russia when Putin is further weakened. People in Russia now see him as a hero who can come in and save the country.

Prigozhin backing down only makes sense if Shoigu and Gerasimov are replaced with guys of his choosing. And if that is the case, Progizhin is a strategic genius. You kind of knew he was a savvy operator just based on how Wagner took Bakhmut, but he's also a master communicator and politician who knew all the buttons to push and how to create an image of himself that makes him look strong. He's a terrible person, but it's so clearly obvious he's way smarter than Putin.

One thing that has become abundantly clear to me over this weekend is that Russia is even more of a mafia state than I even realized. There are no real elections, no real loyalty to anyone. Just a bunch of factions that were barely held together by Putin due to crushing corruption everywhere. Everything is decided by money and force. Putin is like a Paul Castellano before John Gotti arranged for his murder and took over the Gambino Crime family in New York. And Prigozhin is like Gotti.

Good analogy. Putin's Russia has been fully exposed as the gangland state is has always been, in one form or another, since the demise of the Romanovs. It's a thug-ocracy with a lot of nukes, which is obviously bad, but not enough to sustain a geopolitical presence of any legitimacy. The sooner somebody puts a round between his shifty eyes the better. And I don't believe he would replaced by a more diabolical devil we don't know about. Gotta wonder what Putin Fatigue is doing to the plutocrats as well as the babushkas. Somethin's gotta give.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 06-25-2023

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672975275250917376?s=20[/tweet]

Nothing here sounds like a Putin master strategy

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 06-25-2023

(06-25-2023, 08:54 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672975275250917376?s=20

Nothing here sounds like a Putin master strategy

Agree. It would appear that Prigozhin simply overplayed his hand. When the rest of the army/population didn't actively join with him, he realized that by sheer force of numbers he has no chance. I will be totally convinced of that if Prigozhin falls out of a window repeatedly sometime in the near future :-). If he doesn't, it implies that Putin considers him still useful in some sense. That doesn't mean it was a "master plan" however, it just means that the less than optimal (from Putin's point of view) solution included keeping Prigozhin around, "just in case".

We also have the previous two posts that assert Prigozhin won and that his minions are taking over the "important" posts in the military. I am going to be very surprised if that happens, but we shall see. Putin has always attempted to play off different interests against each other and prevent anyone from obtaining too much power. It seems hard to believe he would allow such a concentration of power at this point. He would have been better off fighting Prigozhin straight up instead of giving him the controlling postings in the Russian military.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66006880 takes the view that Prigozhin is a spent force. Note that they also still report only one helicopter being shot down by Wagner. I think a lot of the "data" reported out there is still pretty weakly supported. No one person witnessed the entire breadth of the "incident" and everybody is relying on others for many of their "facts". IMO a lot of the "facts" will turn out to be wrong, as has often happened in this war.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/06/putin-russian-coup-over-prigozhin-wagner/674522/

One quote I like a lot:

Quote:Prigozhin, after all, is not exactly a military genius or a diplomat; he’s a violent, arrogant, emotional man who may well have embarked on this scheme huffing from a vat of his own overconfidence.

So maybe he isn't a military genius? One of his men dead for every 48 cm of advance. 7 to 9 months behind schedule in the capture of Bakhmut. IMO the Atlantic can be a bit erratic in it's reporting/analysis quality, but IMO it got at least this correct.

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