Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - M T - 07-04-2023

Just to put jamming strength into perspective, I'm going to paraphrase what someone else said one time:  Receiving a GPS signal is like watching a light bulb that is 50% further away than the diameter of the earth.

(The Russian GLONASS satellites have transmit power around 100W and orbit at an altitude of 11,900 miles.)

As for the miracle of GPS, here's something to recognize (taken from here):
General Relativity affects the positioning info from GPS by about 14 km/day.
Special Relativity affects the position info by about -2 km/day.

Combined they would affect positioning by about 11.5 km/day, or about 38.4 microseconds per day.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 07-04-2023

(07-04-2023, 04:21 PM)M T Wrote:  Just to put jamming strength into perspective, I'm going to paraphrase what someone else said one time:  Receiving a GPS signal is like watching a light bulb that is 50% further away than the diameter of the earth.

That isn't actually an apt analogy, fortunately :-). The "light bulb" is a source of an incoherent signal spread out (granted unevenly) across the entire spectrum of visible light. The GPS signal operates on a very specific frequency and has a very specific coded structure. The specific frequency allows a narrow processing bandwidth of 2 MHz. The coded structure of the signal supplies 43 dB of "processing gain". That is a factor of 20,000. almost. Without that, GPS would indeed not be very practical.

The document https://www.ieee.li/pdf/viewgraphs/gnss_fundamentals.pdf even includes the relativistic effects. Like all technological miracles, it is "easy" when many other very smart people have already figured it out :-).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 07-05-2023

https://www.yahoo.com/news/exiled-wagner-boss-returns-russia-114024764.html

Well. I guess he isn't going out of the window today at least. Figuring out what, if anything, this means is a real riddle. His guys shoot down aircraft and kill Russians. Yet all is "forgiven". Well, not really, his company did lose it's contract to supply food to the Russian military. There probably was a lower bidder :-).

Different subject:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-04/hungary-says-it-ll-back-sweden-s-nato-entry-once-turkey-moves

If true, this is somewhat good news. The last thing NATO needs is a second obstructionist member  getting in the way. That said, we have heard this one from Hungary before. IMO they will want to be bribed. Their position on this subject is less emotional and more "What can we get out of this?". However, Sweden can't join NATO until after Hungary votes to allow it. Their legislature goes on summer recess on July 7. The vote is not yet on the agenda. I don't know what the legislative status in Türkiye is.  Seems unlikely a vote could happen between now and the NATO meeting.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 07-05-2023

https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-could-decide-week-whether-211152222.html

The fact this even requires discussion is IMO insanity. DPICM is the ideal weapon to use against trenches that have no or inadequate top covering. Many, if not most of the trenches I have seen in Ukraine have long areas of trench with no top covering. Trenches are effective against most artillery because in order to kill anybody you need pretty much a direct hit. The ground will absorb the vast majority of the kinetic effect of any artillery that misses by any distance. Air bursts help address this problem but the dynamics of the shards mean it needs to explode directly over the trench to be effective. Again, hard to do. Artillery will force troops in the trench to keep their heads down and observation / shooting back will be suppressed, but the guys in the trench will be fine and ready to fight when the artillery lets up.

DPICM covers a wide area and pretty much ensures some of the bomblets will land IN the trench. That is going to kill some folks. If 1.5% of them don't explode, not a big deal. DPICM cannot penetrate a trench with a "good" roof. It doesn't have to be concrete, but plywood is generally not good enough. Plywood and "enough" dirt works. However, doing all this is lots of extra work and cannot be done quickly. Digging in after an advance will not be nearly as effective if the opponent has DPICM. It should already be in use. This is what it is for. RTFM.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 07-06-2023

Sweden NATO update:

Stoltenberg had a presser today touting meeting between Sweden, Finland, and Turkey security officials that reportedly made good progress. Said the leaders of Sweden and Turkey will have a joint meeting on Monday to try hammering out any remaining differences. He reiterated the goal is to get Sweden's NATO membership approved by vote at Vilnius next week, acknowledging it will take longer for governments to ratify its accession.

I found it most interesting that Stoltenberg not very subtly pointed out the "anti-muslim" activities in Sweden were fomented by Russia, which is not even a little hard to believe true. He basically said look who doesn't want Sweden in NATO, and you'll know who is behind that. 

It's the first time I've heard Stoltenberg talk about PKK terrorism threatening Turkey and other NATO countries - that Sweden has been soft on according to Turkey - in such stark terms. I'm optimistic a deal will be reached next week.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 07-06-2023

(07-06-2023, 12:53 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  Sweden NATO update:

Stoltenberg had a presser today touting meeting between Sweden, Finland, and Turkey security officials that reportedly made good progress. Said the leaders of Sweden and Turkey will have a joint meeting on Monday to try hammering out any remaining differences. He reiterated the goal is to get Sweden's NATO membership approved by vote at Vilnius next week, acknowledging it will take longer for governments to ratify its accession.

I found it most interesting that Stoltenberg not very subtly pointed out the "anti-muslim" activities in Sweden were fomented by Russia, which is not even a little hard to believe true. He basically said look who doesn't want Sweden in NATO, and you'll know who is behind that. 

It's the first time I've heard Stoltenberg talk about PKK terrorism threatening Turkey and other NATO countries - that Sweden has been soft on according to Turkey - in such stark terms. I'm optimistic a deal will be reached next week.

I hope it will too. The US is really pushing hard as well. However, while a "deal" may be reached next week, it is impossible for the respective legislatures of Hungary and Türkiye to vote on it by then. Until that happens, the deal isn't "done". FWIW I also wouldn't be surprised if Erdoğan still says no. He doesn't like to appear to be "giving in" and how this is going down could be construed as doing that. He has also shown caution regarding Sweden's willingness to do what they say. He has been stressing lately Sweden needed to "do what they promised". What he thinks they promised probably doesn't match what Sweden thinks they promised. He is also very leery of the US administration to deliver the F-16s "as promised" given the problems that exist in Congress. He may be unwilling to surrender leverage until he has things approved all the way through the delivery chain, even if he has "agreed". It isn't over until the vote is in.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 07-07-2023

Cluster munitions are now confirmed to be going to Ukraine, and while a lot of European allies have banned them, the US, Russia, and Ukraine have not.  I'd imagine these will be used to target infantry specifically, which could help Ukraine with offensive actions, but we will see.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 07-07-2023

The way the administration is presenting it is as a stopgap solution while unitary warhead 155mm ammo production ramps up, but certainly these will be very useful for killing entrenched Russians. 

Might require a bit of a learning curve for the Ukrainian troops though, as they are not GPS guided, and as they are older munitions that US troops do not even train with, it may be that an M777 gun has never even fired one of these shells.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 07-07-2023

Cluster munitions can also help clear out mines which should theoretically add velocity to Ukraine forces' ability to advance.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 07-07-2023

(07-07-2023, 12:33 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  

The way the administration is presenting it is as a stopgap solution while unitary warhead 155mm ammo production ramps up, but certainly these will be very useful for killing entrenched Russians. 

Might require a bit of a learning curve for the Ukrainian troops though, as they are not GPS guided, and as they are older munitions that US troops do not even train with, it may be that an M777 gun has never even fired one of these shells.

I can confirm that the M777 has fired DPICM. The vast majority of 155 mm shells fired by Ukraine are not GPS guided. Only Excalibur ones are. There is a firing table forDPICM, just like there is for HE. No training issuest all.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Treefence - 07-07-2023

(07-07-2023, 04:59 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(07-07-2023, 12:33 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  

The way the administration is presenting it is as a stopgap solution while unitary warhead 155mm ammo production ramps up, but certainly these will be very useful for killing entrenched Russians. 

Might require a bit of a learning curve for the Ukrainian troops though, as they are not GPS guided, and as they are older munitions that US troops do not even train with, it may be that an M777 gun has never even fired one of these shells.

I can confirm that the M777 has fired DPICM. The vast majority of 155 mm shells fired by Ukraine are not GPS guided. Only Excalibur ones are. There is a firing table forDPICM, just like there is for HE. No training issuest all.

Goose, do you think this will have a drastic effect on the battlefield, or will this just be a slight improvement for Ukraine?  Would ATACMS have a greater effect?  Seems the rumors of those coming were false unfortunately.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 07-07-2023

(07-07-2023, 04:59 PM)Goose Wrote:  

(07-07-2023, 12:33 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  

The way the administration is presenting it is as a stopgap solution while unitary warhead 155mm ammo production ramps up, but certainly these will be very useful for killing entrenched Russians. 

Might require a bit of a learning curve for the Ukrainian troops though, as they are not GPS guided, and as they are older munitions that US troops do not even train with, it may be that an M777 gun has never even fired one of these shells.

I can confirm that the M777 has fired DPICM. The vast majority of 155 mm shells fired by Ukraine are not GPS guided. Only Excalibur ones are. There is a firing table forDPICM, just like there is for HE. No training issuest all.

Good to know; one of the articles I was reading about DPICM mentioned that in Gulf War, the artillerymen didn't use many because they required more manual calculation and they hadn't used them in training, but perhaps that was incorrect or just old.

This article I just read today was a good summary of DPICM rounds US may be providing and cluster munitions and dud rates more broadly.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a44465526/why-is-the-us-sending-ukraine-cluster-munitions/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 07-09-2023

Watched a doc from German tanker perspective on the Eastern front in WWII. I've been aware that it ended for Germans in the brutal winter conditions for a long time, but it was interesting to learn the specifics and lessons that might apply to Ukraine in its counteroffensive given Germans had to conquer some of the same ground Ukraine must re-take. It got so bad for Germany that at one point a Panzer division that was suppose to have 218 tanks had none at all.

The weather conditions in the region suggest Ukraine will really only have about 2 months to push forward until the rain and mud, then brutal Winter comes. When faced with the mud conditions that slows advance, does Ukraine dig in for the Winter and pause until Spring? Or, unlike the Germans in 1941, will Ukraine be equipped to handle the cold weather and continue pressing forward against what likely will be exhausted resource-starved, but dug in Russians? My concern isn't the Ukrainian soldiers per se, I think they will have wet and cold weather gear. it's the equipment they rely on.  It's very difficult to maintain supply lines and spare parts in miserable mud and snow conditions, to say nothing about how difficult it is to move that equipment. Or will Ukraine be able to make such significant gains over the next month that the Russians will collapse and give up before the weather really becomes a factor?

From a strategic standpoint, it does seem like Russia is being slowly worn down. ATACMS, Abrams (capable of driving through heavy mud and snow), F-16s (all-weather capability allows it to accurately deliver ordnance during non-visual bombing conditions) do seem ideally suited for the Fall/Winter, so maybe that's why they will be delivered later.

Ukrainians are about half way through their Abrams training in Germany. This will line up with delivery of 31 Abrams tanks expected in September. Sure will be interesting how and where Ukraine decides to deploy them.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Hurlburt88 - 07-09-2023

Probably stating the obvious . . . or maybe hoping for what I think is obvious:  Ukraine has "home field advantage" in terms of understanding weather conditions which the Germans did not have in WW2.  I just have to imagine their (Ukraine's) strategies and tactics will be well informed by the realities of the seasons.  I guess my fear would be that politics overcomes logic, but again I hope not.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 07-09-2023

(07-07-2023, 05:36 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Good to know; one of the articles I was reading about DPICM mentioned that in Gulf War, the artillerymen didn't use many because they required more manual calculation and they hadn't used them in training, but perhaps that was incorrect or just old.

I am not certain, but I think the extra computations required involve the fuse settings for the DPICM shells. This has to be done for every fire mission and is not something you can omit. More importantly, the guys bringing the shells have to set the fuses properly and the setting has to be verified. It is more work, for sure. "Unitary" 155mm shells have fuse settings too, but if you are using contact detonation there is nothing to compute.

Back in the 80s the "formula" was to use unitary 155 mm ammunition with VT fuse settings against Russian "Motor Rifle" divisions that were "moving". Back then, Russian Motor Rifle divisions had a few BMPs but mostly truck-bore infantry. The air burst of the 155 mm shell was considered sufficient to destroy the guys in the trucks. Of course, VT does require correct fuse settings, but it was a lot more available (not a special munition). OTOH, against Russian armored divisions, the required shells were DPICM, without question. If everybody was "buttoned up", VT would scratch the paint but probably not kill anybody.

Many of us undoubtedly remember the video showing the Russian tanks moving down the road in Ukraine that were taken under fire by Ukrainian artillery. While it did mess up the formation, and lots of the Russians were obviously panicked, it pretty much takes a direct hit or a very near miss for a unitary 155mm shell to "kill" a tank. It isn't a matter of accuracy either really, as the tank is moving unpredictably and the "indirect fire" is onto a position, not a specific vehicle. The Russians in that engagement weren't really "hurt" that bad. Scared, yes, destroyed utterly, no.

That is why DPICM exists. The "grenades" saturate an area, and everything in it will be hit. It is true that the grenades that hit a tank on the turret may not kill it. The "parasols" the Russians were using don't work on Javelins but the do mostly work on DPICM. However, grenades landing on the engine compartment and other top surfaces of the tank often result in a "mobility kill". The other anti-personnel grenades will kill anybody who is already outside in a thin-skinned vehicle or tank crews who are "bailing out" when they catch fire. A very small number of DPICM shells can really mess up an armored formation. The second set of shells after all the parasols are gone and many tanks are burning can pretty much finish them off. Nothing at all like what we saw on the video.

FWIW, when HIMARS could fire DPICM in big bunches, that was the "finger of god" and the "commanders eraser". The US no longer has that capability, unfortunately. The newer HIMARS rockets carrying unitary warheads are much more accurate and longer range. Indeed, that is a great capability. However, it shouldn't be an "either-or" IMO.

Quote:This article I just read today was a good summary of DPICM rounds US may be providing and cluster munitions and dud rates more broadly.



https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a44465526/why-is-the-us-sending-ukraine-cluster-munitions/

Indeed a good article. It does point out in a low-key way that there are "troops" that do not agree that unitary weapons are a good alternative to DPICM in all conditions. There are also statistics cited that pretty much proves it. Ukraine is going to be using DPICM mostly against trenches. It is perfect for that. There is also a discussion of the reasoning being given for this "banned" weapon being sent to Ukraine. There may be some in Washington who actually believe that explanation. IMO the "real" reason is that it is the right weapon for the intended use and NOT using it under the present circumstances would be crazy. Ukraine has been asking for it because they know it is the right weapon. Finally they will get it.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gocard14 - 07-09-2023

Really interesting (and harrowing) article on Ukrainian tactics. 

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/07/09/sappers-risk-their-lives-to-win-ukraine-back-inch-by-inch#

Essentially due to the casualties taken when trying their NATO style armored breaches, they’ve switched back to using small groups of dismounted sappers to clear paths prior to bringing in more troops and armor. This explains the slow but methodical progress we have seen in the counter offensive. Harrowing since the dismounted sappers are very vulnerable, relying on stealth and lack of mass to avoid fire.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 07-10-2023

https://www.yahoo.com/news/turkey-back-swedens-nato-bid-105335964.html

Just when you thought it was all sorted out... In a way, this is really bad news. The EU isn't going to reopen talks in a situation where it appears they were forced by Türkiye to do so. Internal politics, particularly in Germany, make this real hard to do in the short term. OTOH, Erdoğan has introduced a new demand that he too will face internal issues if he has to "back down". I can for sure see reasons for him to make this demand, and he may regard it as a compromise way ahead that doesn't force Sweden to "back down" and yet allows him to declare victory.

There is no way that Türkiye is joining the EU anytime soon and Erdoğan knows that. The same political and economic issues that made the talks fail in the first place still exist. However, restarting the talks may give his currency a boost right now, which he really needs. Restarting talks is "free" from his point of view. Nobody has committed to actually DO anything. If Türkiye will vote in Sweden without any conditions regarding PROGRESS in the talks, it would be a "good" deal for all concerned. However, politically in many EU countries it isn't at all "free" and the governments are probably not politically strong enough to do it even if they wanted to. Unclear where this goes. It would be great if the EU countries were already on board with this and it was already agreed to, but I really doubt that is the case.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - OutsiderFan - 07-10-2023

I knew Erdogan wanted something else, and the anti-muslim stuff was just a charade.

If Sweden is in the EU and NATO, why not Turkey? It makes sense for Turkey to want EU inclusion if Sweden is allowed into NATO. Of course we know the two organizations aren't officially linked, so it's not like one has any power over the other.

Does the EU want the boat anchor of Turkey's economy to join it? It seems not given how long Turkey has been waiting to get in. Erdogan probably feels like Turkey is being shunned, but linking the two seems foolish.

Stoltenberg is gonna have his hands full navigating this issue, but at least he now knows the REAL issue for Turkey isn't Sweden per se. They are just the hostage.

In any case, I do like that Turkey is more closely aligning with Ukraine by agreeing to arms development partnerships and offering to guard Ukrainian grain ships if Russia doesn't renew the grain transport agreement.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 07-10-2023

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1678484703060324359?s=20[/tweet]

Erdogan says yes to Sweden in NATO.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - washingtonismoney - 07-10-2023

(07-10-2023, 12:33 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  [Tweet]https://twitter.com/jensstoltenberg/status/1678484703060324359?s=20[/tweet]

Erdogan says yes to Sweden in NATO.

Going to need some alliance training exercises on hand-shaking technique it seems.

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