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59ers marquee win! - Printable Version

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Re: 59ers marquee win! - BostonCard - 10-03-2015

Note that FCS Portland State beat WSU by 7 pts in Spokane; Cal beat WSU by 6 at Berkeley.

BC 

Re: 59ers marquee win! - yvonne - 10-03-2015

Cue up the Bay Area media talking about how Cal is a contender in 3... 2... 1....

Re: 59ers marquee win! - BostonCard - 10-03-2015

Here are the teams, with records, Cal has beaten, so far:
Grambling St. 2-2
San Diego St. 1-3
Texas 1-4
Washington 2-2
Washington St. 2-2

Not a single team with a winning record; They have an 8 - 13 record combined.

Here are the next five teams Cal will play, with records:
Utah 4-0
UCLA 4-0
USC 3-1
Oregon 2-2
Oregon St. 2-2

Not a single team with a losing record; they have a 15-5 record combined.  Now the fun starts.

BC

Re: 59ers marquee win! - OutsiderFan - 10-03-2015

Ca.l's FG kicker is not good.  So it makes sense to go for it on 4th and 4 from the 35. 

If you don't think Ca.l's defense is better than 2014 I don't know what you're watching.  They lead the country in interceptions and now lead the Pac-12 with 18 sacks.  I think they had like 15 all season in 2014.  Stanford has what, four? Not saying sacks and interceptions mean a defense is great, but it means they are at least mediocre.  You don't go 5-0 without some kind of better than historically awful defense (which is what Ca.l fielded in 2014).

If only y'all knew the grief I get talking up Stanford on the Ca.l Rivals board...


Re: 59ers marquee win! - BostonCard - 10-03-2015

(10-03-2015, 05:19 PM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Ca.l's FG kicker is not good.  So it makes sense to go for it on 4th and 4 from the 35. 

If you don't think Ca.l's defense is better than 2014 I don't know what you're watching.  They lead the country in interceptions and now lead the Pac-12 with 18 sacks.  I think they had like 15 all season in 2014.  Stanford has what, four? Not saying sacks and interceptions mean a defense is great, but it means they are at least mediocre.  You don't go 5-0 without some kind of better than historically awful defense (which is what Ca.l fielded in 2014).

If only y'all knew the grief I get talking up Stanford on the Ca.l Rivals board...

The decision to go for it was fine, especially if you didn't have a great field goal kicker.  The sad thing is that with four yards to go, Dykes called pass, pass.  And then again in Cal's final drive, with 2 minutes to go.  Cal gets 6 yards on first down, and then calls a pass on second and four.  Incomplete; clock stopped.  The inability to get any sort of running game going will doom Cal in the future.

BC

Re: 59ers marquee win! - OutsiderFan - 10-03-2015

Their OL is terrible.  They are making do with what they have.  You can't say they aren't trying to get something on the ground going.  Like Stanford has been sensational in short yardage this year, Ca.l has been that bad at it.

Goff is a special player and a major difference maker.  He's way better than Wilson of Utah, which gives Ca.l a shot next week. 

Re: 59ers marquee win! - CornFed - 10-03-2015

(10-03-2015, 05:19 PM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Ca.l's FG kicker is not good.  So it makes sense to go for it on 4th and 4 from the 35. 

If you don't think Ca.l's defense is better than 2014 I don't know what you're watching.  They lead the country in interceptions and now lead the Pac-12 with 18 sacks.  I think they had like 15 all season in 2014.  Stanford has what, four? Not saying sacks and interceptions mean a defense is great, but it means they are at least mediocre.  You don't go 5-0 without some kind of better than historically awful defense (which is what Ca.l fielded in 2014).

If only y'all knew the grief I get talking up Stanford on the Ca.l Rivals board...

I absolutely agree OF.  They seem much better this year than last.  Two caveats, though.  One would be the caliber of the competition they have had.  That certainly mitigates how excited one could get about what we're seeing so far.  OTOH, as you mentioned, they already have 18 takeaways, and I think I heard them say that C.al had 17 all last year, so that is impressive.  The other caveat is that last year's C.al defense is a pretty low threshold of comparison.

Re: 59ers marquee win! - BostonCard - 10-03-2015

Well, whatever happens next week, it will be on College Gameday...

https://twitter.com/CollegeGameDay/status/650475277471105024

I don't see Cal beating Utah.  Goff is special, but Utah has a much better running game, a much better defense, and a much better special teams.  Plus the Utes have given up 4 turnovers all year.  The Cal defense, which relies on turnovers is going to have a hard time getting them.  The Utah offensive line has given up 4 sacks all year.  Again, given that Cal relies on sacks, I think they are going to have trouble getting many against the Utes.  Utah put up 24 points on a Michigan team that has allowed 14 points total in four games since then; they are going to feast on the "not awful" Cal defense. 

BC

Re: 59ers marquee win! - washingtonismoney - 10-03-2015

The 59ers gave up 6+ yards per play to a team that couldn't muster more than five-and-a-half against Portland State. Good defense? Come on.*

*(turnovers, obviously. But the 59ers recovered...75% of the fumbles today. There's a well-known, consistent relationship here: teams only recover 50% of fumbles over the long run. Deny this if you'd like, but the math doesn't lie; the 59ers will regress to the mean.)

Re: 59ers marquee win! - OutsiderFan - 10-03-2015

Nobody said Ca.l had a great defense or that they are otherwise a great team.  My point is they are way better than last year.  Ca.l's offense is better than Utah's, but Utah has a more physical running game.  Utah's defense is better than Ca.l's, but Ca.l can pressure the QB and create turnovers.  Makes for a great match-up.

Re: 59ers marquee win! - BostonCard - 10-03-2015

I don't think there is evidence that Cal's offense is better than Utah's.  34 points on Washington State is nothing to write home about.  Neither, apparently, is posting 45 on Texas, as we found out today.  Nor is putting up 35 against San Diego State (they gave up 34 against South Alabama, and 37 against Penn State).  And sorry, you could post a gazillion points against Grambling State and I would not be impressed.  Especially if you factor in the number of turnovers that the defense has generated, the offensive production has not been amazing.

I'm much more impressed by a team that put up 24 on Michigan (who has allowed 14 against its next four opponents combined) and 62 against Oregon.  Yeah, the Oregon defense is not that great, but 62 is still twice as much as Michigan State put up, and 28 points more than Cal put up against Washington State.

Football outsider's offensive S&P rating gives Cal a slight edge.  35.6 - 33.4 (before the WSU game).  I suspect that it will be closer now.  The key thing Utah has that Cal doesn't is offensive balance.

BC

Re: 59ers marquee win! - OutsiderFan - 10-03-2015

What, are you guys secretly afraid of Ca.l?  Why so defensive about acknowledging they might be anything more than dreadful?

It's actually pretty funny.  Ca.l fans are constantly making arguments why Stanford isn't that good too.

Re: 59ers marquee win! - BostonCard - 10-03-2015

(10-03-2015, 06:51 PM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:What, are you guys secretly afraid of Ca.l?  Why so defensive about acknowledging they might be anything more than dreadful?

It's actually pretty funny.  Ca.l fans are constantly making arguments why Stanford isn't that good too.

They are more than dreadful.  But that's not where most Cal fans see the team.

ADD: Colorado is also more than dreadful.

BC

Re: 59ers marquee win! - Roberton3 - 10-03-2015

(10-03-2015, 06:51 PM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:What, are you guys secretly afraid of Ca.l?  Why so defensive about acknowledging they might be anything more than dreadful?

No question that Cal is "more than dreadful".  And the indications so far suggest that Cal is significantly better this year than last.

The problem is that Cal fans are getting way too excited about beating bad teams, and are seeming pretty confident about winning the Pac-12.  That's not going to happen.  I'd be surprised if Cal finishes any higher than 3rd in the North, and shocked if they win the North.

Re: 59ers marquee win! - CompSci87 - 10-03-2015

(10-03-2015, 06:51 PM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:What, are you guys secretly afraid of Ca.l?  Why so defensive about acknowledging they might be anything more than dreadful?

It's actually pretty funny.  Ca.l fans are constantly making arguments why Stanford isn't that good too.

Ragging on Kal is mandatory here.

Re: 59ers marquee win! - BostonCard - 10-03-2015

(10-03-2015, 06:51 PM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:What, are you guys secretly afraid of Ca.l?  Why so defensive about acknowledging they might be anything more than dreadful?

It's actually pretty funny.  Ca.l fans are constantly making arguments why Stanford isn't that good too.

After the last three games, I don't think we are secretly afraid of any team.  As for calfan... they can make whatever arguments they want.

BC

Re: 59ers marquee win! - winflop - 10-04-2015

(10-03-2015, 06:39 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:The key thing Utah has that Low APR U doesn't is offensive balance.

BC

Well there's that - and that thing called DEFENSE

Re: 59ers marquee win! - stupac2 - 10-04-2015

(10-03-2015, 06:51 PM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:What, are you guys secretly afraid of Ca.l?  Why so defensive about acknowledging they might be anything more than dreadful?

It's actually pretty funny.  Ca.l fans are constantly making arguments why Stanford isn't that good too.

Cal hasn't actually played anyone yet, and for having not played anyone they sure didn't look good winning. Do you really think that needing a surprise onside kick to beat Wazzou at home is a good result? I get that sometimes good teams have bad games, but looking at the totality of the evidence it seems more likely that Cal is just mediocre. Which, admittedly, is a step up from the last few years, but I really don't understand this desire to label them a contender.

I guess we'll see, they can prove a lot now that they're actually playing teams with a pulse.

Re: 59ers marquee win! - cardcoug - 10-04-2015

(10-03-2015, 06:25 PM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:Nobody said Ca.l had a great defense or that they are otherwise a great team.  My point is they are way better than last year. 
While this definitely seems true, it is a historically low bar that cal has to clear here. They set the record for passing yards and passing tds allowed last year iirc. I thought their defense looked utterly terrible against WSU.

Re: 59ers marquee win! - martyup - 10-04-2015

UT will knock the stuffing out of the weenies.  Period.