Stanford - ND discussion - Printable Version

Stanford - ND discussion - Printable Version

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Re: Stanford - ND discussion - stupac2 - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 10:19 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:A 16-10 record in close games isn't good when you consider you must be at a 90% win rate in all games played to win championships. That 16-10 works out to 8-5 over a season.Â Moreover, since 2011, his record in close games is 6-7.Â Neither of those marks is good enough to win championships of the national variety.

Uh, record in close games is one of those things that is almost always 50-50. Championship teams don't typically deviate from that, rather they mostly blow out opponents. If you look at us, that's what we're doing, mostly winning by more than one score (with that infuriating two-score loss to Northwestern thrown in).

You can want a coach that does better than that, but you're not going to ever get it over the long term.

Re: Stanford - ND discussion - NDIrish - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 08:27 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:"...Stanford had no business losing probably 6 or 7 of those 10, including the last two at South Bend (sorry)."Â

I am probably starting a fire that will ruin what has been a good discussion thus far by commenting on this, but i wouldn't say by any means that they had no business losing these 2 games.Â You can say that they definitely could have won, or played well enough to win, but i wouldn't say no business.Â There was 1 poor and one judgement PI call on the last scoring drive last year, so i understand that, but still a great play was made on the go ahead TD and it rain soaked game.Â What hurt you were 2 Ints and 47 yards rushing.Â And for 2012... heck of game i have looked for awhile to try and find a replay of that game, but have not.Â Last play was crazy, people can argue forever on if he was in or not, not going to get into that, but even if he was in, it ties the game, not wins it, so you don't know what would have happened....

But appreciate the rest of the post!Â Its really hard to judge coaches, i dont love brian kelly as nd's coach, i think he is a very good coach, probably top 8 in the country, but until you can guarantee you have one of the 1-7, i say stick with him.Â I guess what has always bothered me about shaw is his reservations and lack of creativity.Â I think he has a great football mind, but limits his team one what they can do.Â Just an outsiders opinion.

Re: Standford - ND discussion - NDIrish - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 08:28 AM)CTcard link Wrote:[quote author=NDIrish link=topic=13731.msg143426#msg143426 date=1448374787]
They have been impressive at times and not so much at others.Â

"They" = und, yes?

So, what do you think und's best performances have been this season?

While you obviously have watched them more closely than I, from my view, in the sense of overall control of play vs quality opposition, und's best performances have probably been the loss to Clemson and the blow-out of Navy.

Clemson is obviously good, and after the first two Clemson drives, und really controlled the overall sense of play. The TO margin did them in.

The issue with Navy is that is is hard to judge their quality. UND is the only Power 5 team they have played, and they got whupped pretty handily there. But for und it was a pretty convincing win over a team that can be hard to play.
[/quote]

Yes UND,Â i agree judging against Navy is very hard.Â They are a good team, but most power 5 teams are going to be more athletic, the key is being 100% disciplined to beat them.Â The advantage ND has is playing them every year, so they know how to prepare for them, where great teams get in trouble is playing them randomly because your players and coaches aren't used to it.

So i would say nd's top 4 performances would be :Â Georgia Tech, Navy, Clemson, Pitt.Â The Georgia tech game was a complete blowout, it was like 30-7 with a little over a minute left, the team was getting in all the second stringers and Georgia tech score back to back in a minute.Â I would put texas in there, but that was a different QB, so i will ignore that because its a different team now.Â Already discussed navy, as well as Clemson in an earlier post.Â And pitt was a lot like Georgia tech, i think it was like 42-17 at halfway through he 4th quarter, back up (previously 4th string) qb fumbles and pitt runs in back and one final score made it look closer.

The one additional thing i will say about Clemson is their defensive line is for real and ND got pushed around.Â I think Kelly was supper protective of Kizer being his first BIG road game and limited what he would do, about halfway through the 3rd quarter i think kelly realized we were going to lose if nothing changed, so he took the training wheels of and just started throwing the ball all over the place and it put it us in a position to win, just too little to late.

Re: Stanford - ND discussion - NDIrish - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 08:39 AM)CTcard link Wrote:[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=13731.msg143439#msg143439 date=1448378827]
Â Stanford just doesn't do well in close games, as I segue to Shaw...

In one score games, Stanford under Shaw has gone 16-10 (2-1 in 2011, 8-2 in 2012, 4-3 in 2013, 1-3 in 2014, 1-1 in 2015).

If there is any evidence either direction in that record, it is that Stanford does well in close games.
[/quote]

What my concern has alwaysÂ been with shaw is the farther and farther he gets away from what harbaugh had built, the worse his team seems to get, and i think that stat shows it...

Re: Stanford - ND discussion - NDIrish - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 09:30 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=NDIrish link=topic=13731.msg143432#msg143432 date=1448377640]But he is very calm in big situations and is very good at avoid blitzes and using his mobility to open things up across the middle.

At this point, this plus Fuller is what worries me about this game. We've already seen what happens when a mobile QB who is hard to bring down and can throw accurately on the run plays against this defense, and it's not pretty (well, if you're a Stanford fan anyway). The upside, I think, is that Oregon's receivers are better as a whole than ND's. Fuller is probably the best on either team, but Oregon is deep and ND doesn't seem to be. Also, if ND is without Procise, Oregon's running threat is more potent, so we don't need to commit quite as much to the run, especially on passing downs.

Still, that worries me. We haven't been great at bringing down QBs this year and it's already bitten us once, I wouldn't be shocked to see it happen again.
[/quote]

Fuller is a very good receiver, i wouldn't put him nearly as dangerous as McCaffrey, but you do have to account for him, but like i said before, his upper body strength is his biggest weakness. I would love to say you need to also be concerned about corey robinson, but that kid has vanished this year... Outside of fuller, there is about 3 guys who could play on a lot of teams, but dont see them as NFL guys.Â But there is a lot of speed there, i think ND is as deep as Orgeon, but with Fuller there, they don't get the recognition.Â Overall, from a skill position, i think this is the faster ND team i have ever seen.Â which isn't saying as much given how slow some of ND's teams have been in the past.

Kizer makes such a nice one step move to avoid sacks, and i swear he has eyes in the back of his head, there have been so many times i have been screaming at him to move bc there is someone coming at him from behind and he just gets rid of it at the last second.Â I think he loves to run, but he takes a lot of big hits doing so.Â I am hoping he can open up a lot of other options in the game.

Re: Stanford - ND discussion - stupac2 - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 10:52 AM)NDIrish link Wrote:What my concern has alwaysÂ been with shaw is the farther and farther he gets away from what harbaugh had built, the worse his team seems to get, and i think that stat shows it...

Re: Stanford - ND discussion - Nan3cy - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 10:58 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=NDIrish link=topic=13731.msg143470#msg143470 date=1448387525]What my concern has alwaysÂ been with shaw is the farther and farther he gets away from what harbaugh had built, the worse his team seems to get, and i think that stat shows it...

Re: Stanford - ND discussion - TrumpCard - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 08:10 AM)NDIrish link Wrote:[quote author=TrumpCard link=topic=13731.msg143305#msg143305 date=1448319235]
Thanks for stopping by.Â It should be a good game, as usual.Â

Stanford has some holes on the roster this year, as you would expect from using only 77 of the 85 available scholarships.Â The problems appear mostly on defense.Â There isn't a legitimate NT, though there are some good DEs that rotate into the NT position.Â The starting SS is a converted QB and he's been only okay.Â On the other hand, Stanford has some guys who are among the elite in the country at their respective positions, especially on offense.Â The RB is possibly the top in the nation.Â The left side of the OL is dominant.Â The TEs are outstanding.Â Add an outstanding "game manager" at QB, and you get an offense that has moved the ball very well.Â I understand that your team has a very good front seven, so I expect the battle up front on that side of the ball to be very interesting.

Two questions for you:
(1) Is Onwualu going to play, and if not, is that loss significant?
(2) How does your team look on the road?Â The stats look worse, but that could just be a function of the quality of the opposition.

Re: Stanford - ND discussion - NDIrish - 11-24-2015

for a team that is regularly in the top third of SoS with by far the most ridiculously difficult recruiting profile of any other D1 team
[/quote]

is that accurate concerning their SOS?Â not trying to be rude, just seriously asking if that is something you track or are you assuming?Â I agree recruiting is difficult given academic standards, but to touch on my previous point, is he getting better or worse the farther he gets away from harbaugh?Â Do you honestly see him maintaining that for 10 years, are the recruits you are getting in just as highly rated as what he had when he took over, if the answer is yes, then obviously shout to keep him, if not, then i would be unsure.

Re: Stanford - ND discussion - NDIrish - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 10:58 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=NDIrish link=topic=13731.msg143470#msg143470 date=1448387525]What my concern has alwaysÂ been with shaw is the farther and farther he gets away from what harbaugh had built, the worse his team seems to get, and i think that stat shows it...

That's just flat-out wrong. This team is the best we've had since 2010. People tend to read too far into records for these sorts of comparisons, and that matters because the Pac-12 is just way more competitive than it was in Harbaugh's tenure. Going 8-1 in league play in 2015 is a lot more impressive than doing it in 2011.

I find it really hard to argue that Shaw is anything short of a fantastic coach. This team is now entirely his own recruits and it's won the Pac-12 North, is one game away from a Rose Bowl and two away from a potential playoff berth. What more do people want from him? Going undefeated every year? No one can do that. Chip Kelly didn't do it, Saban doesn't do it, Urban Meyer doesn't do it.
[/quote]

Thanks for the info, i hadn't thought about how much more competitive that pac 12 is since then, they have gotten better as well, so that is a great point.Â As an outsider just asking question, all i can do is look at stats and take away what i see a few times a year.

Going undefeated is obviously not realistic, but just looking at the games he is losing, if you are comfortable with that, great then you are lucky to have a coach you believe in for the future.Â I hope for this selfish reasons that stanford maintains being a great team so that ND's sos stays higher, the problem is, we just gotta beat you for that mean anything, lol

I think stanford week is starting to become one of my favorite weeks, i try and get these chats going with other teams and they never get this interesting, and its only been a day, lol, appreciate it!

Re: Stanford - ND discussion - NDIrish - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 11:02 AM)TrumpCard link Wrote:[quote author=NDIrish link=topic=13731.msg143434#msg143434 date=1448377820]
[quote author=TrumpCard link=topic=13731.msg143305#msg143305 date=1448319235]
Thanks for stopping by.Â It should be a good game, as usual.Â

Stanford has some holes on the roster this year, as you would expect from using only 77 of the 85 available scholarships.Â The problems appear mostly on defense.Â There isn't a legitimate NT, though there are some good DEs that rotate into the NT position.Â The starting SS is a converted QB and he's been only okay.Â On the other hand, Stanford has some guys who are among the elite in the country at their respective positions, especially on offense.Â The RB is possibly the top in the nation.Â The left side of the OL is dominant.Â The TEs are outstanding.Â Add an outstanding "game manager" at QB, and you get an offense that has moved the ball very well.Â I understand that your team has a very good front seven, so I expect the battle up front on that side of the ball to be very interesting.

Two questions for you:
(1) Is Onwualu going to play, and if not, is that loss significant?
(2) How does your team look on the road?Â The stats look worse, but that could just be a function of the quality of the opposition.

(1) i do not think he will, at this point they are getting so thin every loss is significant.
(2) they have been a mixed bag on the road, good enough to win, but not always great, but i never felt like (other than the first 2 min of the clemson game) being on the road was a factor because the same mistakes were made at home.
[/quote]

Thanks for the input.Â I'm sorry to hear about all of your team's injuries.Â Your fan boards must have a lot of "what ifs."
[/quote]

You don't even want to know about ND's fan boards, they waste so much time talking about worthless crap and one week want to fire kelly and the next week extend him forever, Qb is a Voldemort, o wait he played ONE bad game, bench him bc the next guy looked great in the fourth quarter of a blow out.. ND should be able to get any player/coach in the country, its always someone else's fault... bla bla bla

I dont like the what ifs, i bring up injuries just to expose potential holes in a team, or in some cases an advantage bc you don't always know how to perpare for a person.Â we have all seen cases where the back up comes in and gives enough of spark, even though the starter is more athletic.Â I mean they have had a lot of injuries, and they would be better off if that didn't happen, but it doesn't change the fact that they have to go out and play a good stanford team on saturday.Â I do give Kelly and Co. credit for finally have some depth (something ND has never had) that they can sustain all these injuries and still put together a good team.Â I mean not many schools can go that deep (at spring game: 3rd strong qb, 4th string rb) and win.

Re: Stanford - ND discussion - French Rage - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 11:03 AM)NDIrish link Wrote:I agree recruiting is difficult given academic standards, but to touch on my previous point, is he getting better or worse the farther he gets away from harbaugh?Â Do you honestly see him maintaining that for 10 years, are the recruits you are getting in just as highly rated as what he had when he took over, if the answer is yes, then obviously shout to keep him, if not, then i would be unsure.

This upcoming recruiting class will probably be our highest ranked in who knows how long.Â Now maybe that's just a one-year blip, but there certainly isn't anything to warrant a drop-off.

Re: Stanford - ND discussion - NDIrish - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 11:18 AM)French Rage link Wrote:[quote author=NDIrish link=topic=13731.msg143479#msg143479 date=1448388202]I agree recruiting is difficult given academic standards, but to touch on my previous point, is he getting better or worse the farther he gets away from harbaugh?Â Do you honestly see him maintaining that for 10 years, are the recruits you are getting in just as highly rated as what he had when he took over, if the answer is yes, then obviously shout to keep him, if not, then i would be unsure.

Re: Stanford - ND discussion - stupac2 - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 11:07 AM)NDIrish link Wrote:Going undefeated is obviously not realistic, but just looking at the games he is losing, if you are comfortable with that, great then you are lucky to have a coach you believe in for the future.Â I hope for this selfish reasons that stanford maintains being a great team so that ND's sos stays higher, the problem is, we just gotta beat you for that mean anything, lol

Well it's not that I'm comfortable with it, it's that I don't see the other options. Take this year. Lots of good teams don't exactly know what they're doing the first few weeks of the season, and when you schedule aggressively early out-of-conference losses can happen. It happened to OSU last year and they were a pretty good team. And losing to this Oregon team is really nothing to be ashamed of, especially when you're as unlucky as we were in that game (look at Alabama losing to Ole Miss, they should've won that game by 3 scores but kept coughing up the ball).

I think I'm also more in tune with the fact that football is probabilistic than most people, so that colors my perceptions of things. Any team can win any game depending on what happens, and sometimes those factors align for you (USC in 2007, most of our wins in 2012), sometimes they don't (Oregon this year). It sucks but firing a coach because he got unlucky is stupid.

Finally, because Stanford has a small pool of recruits to choose from, there are going to be years where one position is particularly thin and that could hurt. Some better luck with recruiting and developing and keeping defensive linemen healthy and we could be undefeated this year. But there's not much Shaw can do about that.

(11-24-2015, 11:03 AM)NDIrish link Wrote:is that accurate concerning their SOS?Â not trying to be rude, just seriously asking if that is something you track or are you assuming?Â I agree recruiting is difficult given academic standards, but to touch on my previous point, is he getting better or worse the farther he gets away from harbaugh?Â Do you honestly see him maintaining that for 10 years, are the recruits you are getting in just as highly rated as what he had when he took over, if the answer is yes, then obviously shout to keep him, if not, then i would be unsure.

Re: Stanford - ND discussion - Mick - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 11:03 AM)NDIrish link Wrote:for a team that is regularly in the top third of SoS with by far the most ridiculously difficult recruiting profile of any other D1 team

is that accurate concerning their SOS? not trying to be rude, just seriously asking if that is something you track or are you assuming?Â I agree recruiting is difficult given academic standards, but to touch on my previous point, is he getting better or worse the farther he gets away from harbaugh?Â Do you honestly see him maintaining that for 10 years, are the recruits you are getting in just as highly rated as what he had when he took over, if the answer is yes, then obviously shout to keep him, if not, then i would be unsure.
[/quote]

You're right, I miswrote.Â Our average strength of schedule over the past decade is 14th.Â There are 128 teams in the division, so the top 14 actually constitute the top 11% of all teams' schedules, instead of the top 33%.Â

Here's Stanford's SoS over the years, per www.teamrankings.com:

2015Â 19th
2014Â 15th
2013Â Â 1st
2012Â 16th
2011Â Â 5th
2010Â 20th
2009Â Â 4th
2008Â 17th
2007Â 35th
2006Â 11th

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other?date=2007-01-09

Re: Stanford - ND discussion - CrazedZooChimp - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 11:03 AM)NDIrish link Wrote:is that accurate concerning their SOS?Â not trying to be rude, just seriously asking if that is something you track or are you assuming?Â I agree recruiting is difficult given academic standards, but to touch on my previous point, is he getting better or worse the farther he gets away from harbaugh?Â Do you honestly see him maintaining that for 10 years, are the recruits you are getting in just as highly rated as what he had when he took over, if the answer is yes, then obviously shout to keep him, if not, then i would be unsure.

Yep.Â Based on the Sagarin rankings for the last few years (back to 2011), our worst SoS was 36 in 2011.Â Our best was the 2013 season, where we had 1 (the hardest).Â So, top 1/3 consistently in Shaw's period, and actually only one other outside the top 25 (27 last season).

(11-24-2015, 11:18 AM)French Rage link Wrote:[quote author=NDIrish link=topic=13731.msg143479#msg143479 date=1448388202]I agree recruiting is difficult given academic standards, but to touch on my previous point, is he getting better or worse the farther he gets away from harbaugh?Â Do you honestly see him maintaining that for 10 years, are the recruits you are getting in just as highly rated as what he had when he took over, if the answer is yes, then obviously shout to keep him, if not, then i would be unsure.

This upcoming recruiting class will probably be our highest ranked in who knows how long.Â Now maybe that's just a one-year blip, but there certainly isn't anything to warrant a drop-off.
[/quote]

2014 and 2015 were both top 25 classes, 2012 was top 10, this year we're currently top-10 as well (these are from 247).Â 2013 we had a tiny class so it was ranked pretty low, but I think was still top-25 on average star rating.Â So I think it's safe to say Shaw can consistently recruit a top-25 rated class or better.Â 2012 was our highest ranking class ever, this one will come close.Â Harbaugh did not do better based on recruiting rankings, although he did find a lot of unheralded stars.

Re: Stanford - ND discussion - NDIrish - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 11:27 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=NDIrish link=topic=13731.msg143480#msg143480 date=1448388445]Going undefeated is obviously not realistic, but just looking at the games he is losing, if you are comfortable with that, great then you are lucky to have a coach you believe in for the future.Â I hope for this selfish reasons that stanford maintains being a great team so that ND's sos stays higher, the problem is, we just gotta beat you for that mean anything, lol

Well it's not that I'm comfortable with it, it's that I don't see the other options. Take this year. Lots of good teams don't exactly know what they're doing the first few weeks of the season, and when you schedule aggressively early out-of-conference losses can happen. It happened to OSU last year and they were a pretty good team. And losing to this Oregon team is really nothing to be ashamed of, especially when you're as unlucky as we were in that game (look at Alabama losing to Ole Miss, they should've won that game by 3 scores but kept coughing up the ball).

I think I'm also more in tune with the fact that football is probabilistic than most people, so that colors my perceptions of things. Any team can win any game depending on what happens, and sometimes those factors align for you (Under Stanford Control in 2007, most of our wins in 2012), sometimes they don't (Oregon this year). It sucks but firing a coach because he got unlucky is stupid.

Finally, because Stanford has a small pool of recruits to choose from, there are going to be years where one position is particularly thin and that could hurt. Some better luck with recruiting and developing and keeping defensive linemen healthy and we could be undefeated this year. But there's not much Shaw can do about that.

(11-24-2015, 11:03 AM)NDIrish link Wrote:is that accurate concerning their SOS?Â not trying to be rude, just seriously asking if that is something you track or are you assuming?Â I agree recruiting is difficult given academic standards, but to touch on my previous point, is he getting better or worse the farther he gets away from harbaugh?Â Do you honestly see him maintaining that for 10 years, are the recruits you are getting in just as highly rated as what he had when he took over, if the answer is yes, then obviously shout to keep him, if not, then i would be unsure.

Stanford is routinely among the top teams in the country in SOS. This is because:

1) The Pac-12 is pretty good, and we play 9 conference games, with guaranteed games against the LA schools.
2) We play ND every year.
3) We tend to play other pretty good teams OOC (no FCS, other P5 schools, etc).

So that alone typically puts is in the top quarter or so, although for some reason right now FEI and S&P+ don't like us very much, maybe because we've yet to play ND (we're in the 40's or 50's). Sagarin has us #24. FPI only gives remaining SOS, which actually is kind of baffling. ND's remaining SOS is #2, but ours is #22, despite ND being ranked ahead of us. How the hell is that? Super weird.

I don't really feel like looking through past years' data, but when I have looked before we're typically top-30, and sometimes top-10.
[/quote]

Comfortable was a poor choice of words, sorry.Â working on three things here and this is unfortunately the least important, lol.Â

i agree with your assessment of coaches, i think letting go of miles (despite the fact i dont like him) would be a brobdingnagian mistake of LSU.Â Injuries, bad refs, or an unlucky bounce and your fired, plus factor in the fact your are dealing largely with kids going through a lot of personal stuff. Going 75% or higher is a great accomplishment.Â

Re: Stanford - ND discussion - NDIrish - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 11:35 AM)Mick link Wrote:[quote author=NDIrish link=topic=13731.msg143479#msg143479 date=1448388202]
for a team that is regularly in the top third of SoS with by far the most ridiculously difficult recruiting profile of any other D1 team

Re: Stanford - ND discussion - NDIrish - 11-24-2015

(11-24-2015, 11:37 AM)CrazedZooChimp link Wrote:[quote author=NDIrish link=topic=13731.msg143479#msg143479 date=1448388202]
is that accurate concerning their SOS?Â not trying to be rude, just seriously asking if that is something you track or are you assuming?Â I agree recruiting is difficult given academic standards, but to touch on my previous point, is he getting better or worse the farther he gets away from harbaugh?Â Do you honestly see him maintaining that for 10 years, are the recruits you are getting in just as highly rated as what he had when he took over, if the answer is yes, then obviously shout to keep him, if not, then i would be unsure.

(11-24-2015, 11:18 AM)French Rage link Wrote:[quote author=NDIrish link=topic=13731.msg143479#msg143479 date=1448388202]I agree recruiting is difficult given academic standards, but to touch on my previous point, is he getting better or worse the farther he gets away from harbaugh?Â Do you honestly see him maintaining that for 10 years, are the recruits you are getting in just as highly rated as what he had when he took over, if the answer is yes, then obviously shout to keep him, if not, then i would be unsure.

This upcoming recruiting class will probably be our highest ranked in who knows how long.Â Now maybe that's just a one-year blip, but there certainly isn't anything to warrant a drop-off.
[/quote]

2014 and 2015 were both top 25 classes, 2012 was top 10, this year we're currently top-10 as well (these are from 247).Â 2013 we had a tiny class so it was ranked pretty low, but I think was still top-25 on average star rating.Â So I think it's safe to say Shaw can consistently recruit a top-25 rated class or better.Â 2012 was our highest ranking class ever, this one will come close.Â Harbaugh did do better based on recruiting rankings, although he did find a lot of unheralded stars.
[/quote]

Well it doesn't look like this game is going to get any easier the next few years, lolÂ

Re: Stanford - ND discussion - fullmetal - 11-24-2015

I agree with the ND fan boards about one thing--Brian Kelly is not the best coach out there.Â All of America pokes fun at Kelly's immature behavior and his apparent complicity with the scandals that keep leaking out once every season or so.Â I will always have to root against ND when they play Stanford, but I find it hard to root for ND outside of the rivalry because I just can't respect the program.Â I'd rather root for current cellar-dweller Texas because I respect Charlie Strong's ethics and his process.

Anyway, I do appreciate the SoS bump that ND provides Stanford ;)