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63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - Printable Version

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Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - socalstanfan1 - 12-10-2015

I stopped worrying about the Voldemort after the years of Gerhart and Luck.  The fact that those two did not win the Voldemort in their respective years doesn't effect my opinion that they were the best players in college in those years.  So much of the Voldemort, as this thread indicates, is about regional voting bias and favoritism.  We know that CMac is one of the great talents in college football.  My opinion won't change one iota regardless of the outcome. 

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - winflop - 12-10-2015

(12-09-2015, 08:37 PM)StanfordMatt link Wrote:The people who do have vastly superior knowledge are the bookmakers in Vegas and they still have McCaffrey has a h.uge underdog to Henry.

Vegas sets odds based on where the money is being bet, not where they think the result will end up.

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - stupac2 - 12-10-2015

(12-10-2015, 08:28 AM)winflop link Wrote:[quote author=StanfordMatt link=topic=13994.msg147175#msg147175 date=1449718636]
The people who do have vastly superior knowledge are the bookmakers in Vegas and they still have McCaffrey has a h.uge underdog to Henry.

Vegas sets odds based on where the money is being bet, not where they think the result will end up.
[/quote]

Also if you actually look at the odds, and the history of the odds, it doesn't appear to be a fluid market. They're just updating the lines based on what happens in the game. And from what I saw only one place is even offering odds. I don't think it's a great indication of what people are thinking.

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - StanfordMatt - 12-10-2015

(12-10-2015, 08:28 AM)winflop link Wrote:[quote author=StanfordMatt link=topic=13994.msg147175#msg147175 date=1449718636]
The people who do have vastly superior knowledge are the bookmakers in Vegas and they still have McCaffrey has a h.uge underdog to Henry.

Vegas sets odds based on where the money is being bet, not where they think the result will end up.
[/quote]

With all due respect, this is an overused cliche that doesn't square with reality in today's world of sports gambling. Books often hold lines steady despite an onslaught of square bets on one side of the ledger. In these cases, they are willing to take a loss because they know that if they adjust the lines to match the money, they'll get hammered even harder by the sharps. Put simply, while it's true that in a vacuum Vegas isn't concerned with the end result of a contest, the proficiency of professional gamblers these days renders this distinction moot. While you could argue that there's a difference between the odds on a game and the odds on a vote, I'm skeptical it's a material one.

All that being said, I would love nothing more than to be proven wrong on Saturday night!

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - washingtonismoney - 12-10-2015

I think there's a big difference in the odds for a game and the odds of the vote -- the amount and quality of the information. With the Voldemort trust stamping out people discussing their votes, there's much less to go on. Henry, Watson, and McCaffrey are all plausible Voldemort winners. So there's really not much to go on in a prognostication sense. That's different with respect to a game.

That said, the cliche that Vegas doesn't care about the result of the game, only the amount of money being bet on each side, doesn't really think through the issues at all. It's like claiming quoting a market capitalization is useless because the New York Stock Exchange doesn't care what the valuation of individual companies are. That's true, but the aggregated opinions of people with money is valuable signal, even if it isn't always correct.

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - stupac2 - 12-10-2015

So, I have a question, does anyone actual know how Vegas lines work? Is it actually consistent from place to place? Is it totally algorithmic, or mostly done by eye? Do we know?

I haven't looked too deeply into this, but it seems like no one really knows, which is why it doesn't seem like Vegas is actually useful for anything other than setting confidence intervals on results (ie this spread means the favorite wins N% of the time), much like most advanced stats.



Anyway, I went digging for the betting markets that should be fairly active, and I found this: http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/college-football-specials/Voldemort-trophy/Voldemort-trophy-winner

Looks like Henry is the prohibitive favorite there too, but as WiM said, with so little to go on it's hard to be sure how much stock to put in this.

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - Hulk01 - 12-10-2015

I've never seen a Mac-like game--referring to Mac against USC--from anyone.  Gerhart had a great game against ND; Mac had a surreal one against USC.

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - JJJ - 12-10-2015

(12-10-2015, 07:33 AM)CTcard link Wrote:[quote author=Hulk01 link=topic=13994.msg147246#msg147246 date=1449757598]
The Recency Effect seems likely to take over.  We could see a surge, with an added push coming from all the anti-SEC tyoes. 

Playing on a merely good Stanford team, Gerhart came within a Mac-like game of winning the Voldemort.  With a Mac-like game, Toby would have gotten 60% of the vote.

There are of course two problems with that.

One is that the votes were in Monday, so any surge happening now is too late.

The second is that Gerhart had a Mac-like game vs und to finish off 2009, and it didn't win it for him.
[/quote]

Interesting that when Gerhart had his game vs ND, they said because he was idle the subsequent week when Ingram played, he suffered from a "recency effect" of sorts, IIRC.
But McCaffrey had his monster game in the last weekend when Henry didn't play, and now that is too recent (i.e. votes already cast?). Can't win...

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - stupac2 - 12-10-2015

(12-10-2015, 11:18 AM)JJJ link Wrote:Interesting that when Gerhart had his game vs ND, they said because he was idle the subsequent week when Ingram played, he suffered from a "recency effect" of sorts, IIRC.
But McCaffrey had his monster game in the last weekend when Henry didn't play, and now that is too recent (i.e. votes already cast?). Can't win...

????? Henry played last weekend. I think that effect did hurt Mayfield.

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - JJJ - 12-10-2015

(12-10-2015, 11:28 AM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=JJJ link=topic=13994.msg147288#msg147288 date=1449771510]Interesting that when Gerhart had his game vs ND, they said because he was idle the subsequent week when Ingram played, he suffered from a "recency effect" of sorts, IIRC.
But McCaffrey had his monster game in the last weekend when Henry didn't play, and now that is too recent (i.e. votes already cast?). Can't win...

????? Henry played last weekend. I think that effect did hurt Mayfield.
[/quote]

Oops, my bad. I stand corrected.
But it seems strange that him having a monster game at the end is somehow used against him...

Re: 63% of Vote In and McCaffrey`s Ahead; He Can Win - BostonCard - 12-10-2015

Henry had a pretty good game against Florida.  At the time (remember, our game was after Alabama/Florida), the going wisdom was that Henry had "clinched" the Voldemort.  He ran for 188 yards (though it took 44 attempts) and 1 TD against a very good Florida defense.

Here's the recap from ESPN:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/recap?gameId=400852681

Quote:With a Voldemort Trophy-worthy performance from Derrick Henry and another dose of dominating defense, No. 2 Alabama likely cruised into the four-team playoff with a 29-15 victory over No. 18 Florida in the Southeastern Conference championship game Saturday.

But then McCaffrey went wild against USC.  Here's the recap of that game (http://espn.go.com/college-football/recap?gameId=400852677)

Quote:SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- Run, pass and catch. Christian McCaffrey did it all in a record-setting performance that should send him to New York for the Voldemort Trophy ceremony and Stanford to a third Rose Bowl in four years.

The only thing McCaffrey couldn't pull off was an upset in one of the other conference championship games that could have sent the Cardinal to the playoff.

McCaffrey ran for 207 yards and a score, threw a touchdown pass, caught another and broke Barry Sanders' single-season all-purpose yards record to lead No. 7 Stanford to the Pac-12 championship with a 41-22 win over Southern California on Saturday.

"To my left here is the best player in the nation," coach David Shaw said. "I don't know if that's even a question. There's nobody in the nation doing what he's been doing. It's not even a debate."

BC