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Re: QB against Beavers? - doublespiral - 10-30-2016

I'm probably conservative and would be hesitant to start Costello this season if I were Shaw, but if Chryst doesn't show improvement over another game or two, is there a significant downside?

I suppose he could get mauled due to a porous O-Line - and that might set back his development - but it's not that rare to see true frosh start at big time programs these days and many are holding their own. Off the top of my head, I know that Hurts at Alabama has been impressive (though he's surrounded by talent) and even Buechele at Texas has been a step up (though Texas doesn't know how to get all its talent on track). Closer to home, Rosen and Browning acquitted themselves quite well as freshman.

(The counter to this may be that those offenses are less complex and the QB b.ears less responsibility for checking into the correct call. If that's true, and our offense suffers significantly from limiting the playbook, then that would be a valid argument. I'm leaning toward taking a chance on a limited playbook, however.)

If he's a phenom, would he really stick around as a 5th year senior? If not, then getting him in the mix this year might ramp up his learning curve and we don't lose anything at the end of his collegiate career. It could make him sharper for next year as the heir apparent - and we might even see better results out of the QB position this year as well.

If we lose him early to the NFL, then I'm sure we'd all be thrilled that he gave us at least 2 to 3+ great seasons - and we have Mills and West lined up with similar accolades in 2017 and 2018. Not that those accolades necessarily mean that much - as Burns and Chryst had star-ratings and offer lists similar to the guys behind them.

I don't know that I'd pull the trigger, but I'm wondering if I just have an unfounded bias against throwing a true frosh into the mix. Other schools are succeeding with it and our current options are struggling mightily. May be worth a shot...

Re: QB against Beavers? - CTcard - 10-30-2016

(10-30-2016, 03:25 PM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:Proprietary isn't, in of itself, a problem. That it conjures some very odd results is: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/11/19/charlie-batchs-186-yard-two-pick-game-has-espns-best-qbr-ever/

EDIT: though perhaps there was some bug or something? Batch's game no longer appears on the list.

Among MANY other things, whatever exactly QBR is, it seems to be rather subjective. Note the claim that QBR "benefits from tape analysis". That's one thing for the NFL. But for the NCAA that presumably means some drones in the ESPN dungeons going over tape from 70+ college football games, rating each and every plays, and supposedly making consistent and accurate calls for each.

Re: QB against Beavers? - CTcard - 10-30-2016

(10-30-2016, 08:24 PM)doublespiral link Wrote:If he's a phenom, would he really stick around as a 5th year senior?

This is usually a spurious argument.

There is a tremendous gulf between "not capable" and "phenom heading to the NFL", and most starting QBs - including most good QBs fall into this range. Hogan was a fantastic QB for Stanford, stuck around 5 years, and declaring for the draft one year earlier would have meant ... a career somewhere other than the NFL.

More broadly, as many here have documented (notably WIM), most of the time a QB playing as a true frosh means not playing well and even hurting development. This is probably more true at Stanford where showing up early for spring football is not an option.

... but of course I still think Luck should have played as a true frosh.

Re: QB against Beavers? - washingtonismoney - 10-30-2016

Correct. For a true freshman to play he should:

1) Be unlikely to stick around for a fifth year, and
2) Develop in his playing time such that his 2nd-4th years are better than they would be in the counterfactual scenario with strength & conditioning plus practice, and
3) Be able to take snaps from an alternative.

It's hard to comment on most redshirt-burning for conditions 1) and 2), which are counterfactual -- Stanford would be a lot better with fifth-year Blake Martinez and Aziz Shittu, but would they have stuck around -- but the team often plays freshmen's redshirts who don't fulfill 3). Donald Stewart and Curtis Robinson are this year's examples; it seems like every year there are one or two guys whose redshirts are burnt for no good reason.

Re: QB against Beavers? - dabigv13 - 10-30-2016

May be worthwhile to add a caveat regarding at point in the season the shirt will be burned and how the season has progressed already. Burning a shirt late in a season without much to play for should be particularly discouraged.

Re: QB against Beavers? - washingtonismoney - 10-30-2016

(10-30-2016, 09:25 PM)dabigv link Wrote:May be worthwhile to add a caveat regarding at point in the season the shirt will be burned and how the season has progressed already. Burning a shirt late in a season without much to play for should be particularly discouraged.

That's a good point too. If, for example, Stanford were 10-0 and needing to burn someone's shirt in a playoff push I'd have no troubles with that.

Re: QB against Beavers? - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 10-30-2016

(10-30-2016, 09:25 PM)dabigv link Wrote:May be worthwhile to add a caveat regarding at point in the season the shirt will be burned and how the season has progressed already. Burning a shirt late in a season without much to play for should be particularly discouraged.

Right, and this is my main issue with the idea of playing Costello. To what end? We're 2/3 of the way through the season and certainly not competing for a NY6 bowl. If it's a foregone conclusion that he will be the starter next year and you want to get him some game experience now, I can maybe see that. I know a lot of us weren't thrilled with the lack of playing time Burns/Chryst got last year, but neither of them were true freshmen. Also, what happens if we play Costello this year to prep him for next year and he disappoints, and Chryst improves significantly over the spring/summer? We've burned Costello's shirt for nothing.

Now, as should be pointed out, it is a misnomer to call it a "burned" shirt since it can be used whenever. It's not limited to a player's true frosh season. But would playing him this year and then shirting him next year even be an option? Off the top of my head I can't recall a time Shaw has done that, but then again I don't pay a lot of attention to that kind of stuff.

Re: QB against Beavers? - BostonCard - 10-30-2016

(10-30-2016, 10:54 PM)ThePOC link Wrote:[quote author=dabigv link=topic=16012.msg177845#msg177845 date=1477887933]
May be worthwhile to add a caveat regarding at point in the season the shirt will be burned and how the season has progressed already. Burning a shirt late in a season without much to play for should be particularly discouraged.

Right, and this is my main issue with the idea of playing Costello. To what end? We're 2/3 of the way through the season and certainly not competing for a NY6 bowl. If it's a foregone conclusion that he will be the starter next year and you want to get him some game experience now, I can maybe see that. I know a lot of us weren't thrilled with the lack of playing time Burns/Chryst got last year, but neither of them were true freshmen. Also, what happens if we play Costello this year to prep him for next year and he disappoints, and Chryst improves significantly over the spring/summer? We've burned Costello's shirt for nothing.

Now, as should be pointed out, it is a misnomer to call it a "burned" shirt since it can be used whenever. It's not limited to a player's true frosh season. But would playing him this year and then shirting him next year even be an option? Off the top of my head I can't recall a time Shaw has done that, but then again I don't pay a lot of attention to that kind of stuff.
[/quote]

Luke Kaumatule played as a true freshman (at tight end), moved to defense, and redshirted his true senior year.  He's now a backup defensive lineman as a fifth-year senior.

BC

Re: QB against Beavers? - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 10-30-2016

(10-30-2016, 11:09 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:[quote author=ThePOC link=topic=16012.msg177853#msg177853 date=1477893282]
[quote author=dabigv link=topic=16012.msg177845#msg177845 date=1477887933]
May be worthwhile to add a caveat regarding at point in the season the shirt will be burned and how the season has progressed already. Burning a shirt late in a season without much to play for should be particularly discouraged.

Right, and this is my main issue with the idea of playing Costello. To what end? We're 2/3 of the way through the season and certainly not competing for a NY6 bowl. If it's a foregone conclusion that he will be the starter next year and you want to get him some game experience now, I can maybe see that. I know a lot of us weren't thrilled with the lack of playing time Burns/Chryst got last year, but neither of them were true freshmen. Also, what happens if we play Costello this year to prep him for next year and he disappoints, and Chryst improves significantly over the spring/summer? We've burned Costello's shirt for nothing.

Now, as should be pointed out, it is a misnomer to call it a "burned" shirt since it can be used whenever. It's not limited to a player's true frosh season. But would playing him this year and then shirting him next year even be an option? Off the top of my head I can't recall a time Shaw has done that, but then again I don't pay a lot of attention to that kind of stuff.
[/quote]

Luke Kaumatule played as a true freshman (at tight end), moved to defense, and redshirted his true senior year.  He's now a backup defensive lineman as a fifth-year senior.

BC
[/quote]

Right, but that's kind of a different scenario. Though it does show that playing a freshman and later redshirting him wouldn't be unprecedented for Shaw, I suppose.

Re: QB against Beavers? - murky - 10-31-2016

(10-30-2016, 01:04 PM)Extra Point link Wrote:[quote author=BurgXXIII link=topic=16012.msg177795#msg177795 date=1477847948]
Name any Stanford QB ever, all eras, with a better career start than Chyrst.

Steve Stenstrom
Andrew Luck
Kevin Hogan
Randy Fasani
Steve Dils
Turk Shonert
Mark Butterfield
Guy Benjamin
Todd Husak
John Elway
John Bunce
Mike Boryla
Joe Borchard
Trent Edwards
Mike Cordova
Jerry Walvogal

There are probably more. These are just the ones I know about. I suspect Jim Plunket, Frankie Albert, and Mike Garret started out well. Does anyone know of a site that has this information?

I think Chryst did OK for a first game on the road and deserves to start. I also trust the judgement of the coaching staff. They know a lot more about this than anyone here.



[/quote]

I don't have a dog in this fight, but you left out the most obvious, Ryan Burns.

Re: QB against Beavers? - BostonCard - 10-31-2016

I feel sad that so many people are so quick to write off our guys.

Chryst may or may not be the long term answer behind center, and his performance on Saturday was dreadful, but one game (and isolated series in others) seems like way too little information to write him off on.  Things may never "click" for Chryst, but it is also possible that he is just too tight back there and once he relaxes and gets a few good throws in that he will perform better. Certainly, one game is not enough to decide that he no longer deserves our support.

BC

Re: QB against Beavers? - fullmetal - 10-31-2016

I don't think anyone is going to *not* support Chryst when he (probably) starts on Saturday.  I think a lot of people are worried that he displayed the same tendencies that plagued Burns.  I wonder how much of this is our OL and what a known good QB would look like (Luck playing behind the Colts' OL, perhaps).

Re: QB against Beavers? - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 10-31-2016

I do think there are people who have, for one reason or another, a bias against Chryst (suggesting Burns should be re-installed, for example), and others who have expressed a desire to see Costello. But for the most part I agree with fullmetal that most of us are going to support Chryst simply because he's currently the man under center. That doesn't mean we shouldn't be objective, and he objectively did not play well. But for the most part I doubt too many of us are actually rooting against Chryst (and I would be disappointed in any Stanford fan who is).

Re: QB against Beavers? - dabigv13 - 10-31-2016

Thinking Burns should be reinstalled does not mean the same thing as a bias against Chryst. Just like your desire to see more of Chryst earlier in the season doesn't mean you are biased against Burns, necessarily.

And I think all Stanford fans should and will cheer the success of whoever is under center, and hopefully there is plenty more of it.