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Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-19-2017

Stanford 3, Michigan 1

Doyle falls 3-6, 6-1, 2-6 to Fahey and Michigan is now on the board, but Arbuthnott is serving for the match. 

#2: 6-4, 5-7, 4-3.   
#4. 5-7, 6-6 (up 5-4 in the TB).  Lampl hoping to extend her match and give Lord or Arbuthnott time to close theirs out.
#5. 3-6, 6-0, 5-4.  Arbuthnott now with a chance to serve out the win. 

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-19-2017

And there it is!  Stanford wins 4-1 as Arbuthnott shuts the door on Ruder-Hook, 3-6, 6-0, 6-4.  At the time, Lord led her third set 4-3 and Lampl led in her second-set tiebreak, so there were more opportunities out there, but Stanford's tradition of strong freshman play on the back courts continues.

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - 2006alum - 05-19-2017

(05-19-2017, 08:47 AM)ColoradoTree link Wrote:And there it is!  Stanford wins 4-1 as Arbuthnott shuts the door on Ruder-Hook, 3-6, 6-0, 6-4.  At the time, Lord led her third set 4-3 and Lampl led in her second-set tiebreak, so there were more opportunities out there, but Stanford's tradition of strong freshman play on the back courts continues.

Whew! Thanks for the updates, and congrats to the Women's team!

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - BobK - 05-19-2017

A wonderful morning.  That's for the updates.  On to Sunday

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - Spiny_Norman - 05-19-2017

Nice job with the updates, ColoradoTree.  Lord did not look injured.  She just had a really tough opponent.

Next up - #2 North Carolina on Sunday at 12 pm eastern/9 pacific.  UNC blitzed Duke 4-0.  They won the doubles point then swept #1, 2 and 3 singles in straight sets.

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - fullmetal - 05-19-2017

UNC again?  The Stanford ladies will take their cue from Solly Thomas and put the hurt on 'em ;)

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-19-2017

Some thoughts on the Michigan match:

1. Stanford absolutely cruised in doubles, so there was no issue for them about having to play a match against a top-10 team at 6am body clock time.

2. Higuchi continues to dominate, and she hasn't lost a dual match all year. It's getting a little ridiculous how automatic she is.  Don't be surprised if she vaults Arbuthnott in next year's lineup, much like Lord vaulted Lampl this year.

3. Stanford needed to win three singles matches, and they got three first sets--from Higuchi, Lord, and Davidson. 

4. Good fight from the players who lost their first sets, as Arbuthnott stepped on the gas after losing her first set 3-6, taking the second 6-0 and squelching any thoughts of a comeback by winning 6-4.  Doyle also won her second set, and Lampl was on the verge of winning hers. 

5. An uneven outing from Lord, who was cruising and actually had a chance to close out her match before Higuchi did, but she then lost five straight games to lose the second set, before getting back on track in the third.  She was up 4-3 when her match was abandoned, so no guarantee that she would have won, but I'd say better than even odds. 

6. Doyle lost her rematch with Michigan's Fahey from last year's NCAA quarterfinal, when Doyle clinched Stanford's 4-3 win with a 6-2, 2-6, 7-6 (4) win at the #3 spot.  Doyle showed some nice fight by decisively taking the second set in this match after losing the first, but she didn't have enough left. 

7. Lampl may not always win, but she never goes down easily.  After losing her first set, she got to a second set tiebreaker, which she led 6-5 when it was abandoned.  With a win there, I feel like she would have gotten Stanford a fourth point if the team needed it. 

8.  Davidson has been really up and down all year, winning solidly against top players and scuffling against unranked ones.  She can be streaky, but she's also a passionate player that seems to find an extra gear in the NCAA tournament (she's now 9-1 all-time in NCAAs, per the official team Twitter account).  She certainly showed that today, getting a tough first-set win before getting smoked in the second and then turning it on in the third. 

9. Lord and Lampl continue their NCAA unbeaten streak (each is 8-0), while Higuchi is now 2-0 in her young NCAA career (she would be 3-0, but Idaho forfeited the #6 singles spot in the first round this year).  Arbuthnott is now 2-1, and Doyle falls to 7-7 in her NCAA career, and she hasn't registered a NCAA win since her quarterfinal win over Michigan's Fahey last year. 


Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - Spiny_Norman - 05-19-2017

(05-19-2017, 09:31 AM)ColoradoTree link Wrote:Doyle falls to 7-7 in her NCAA career, and she hasn't registered a NCAA win since her quarterfinal win over Michigan's Fahey last year.

Going to be really tough to stop that streak on Sunday vs UNC. She plays the #2 player in the country Hayley Carter. 

Stanford lost to UNC 4-3 in the NCAA semifinals in 2014. Carter was playing in the #2 slot that year and blitzed Krista Hardebeck 6-2, 6-1.  Taylor Davidson and Caroline Doyle both played in that match as freshmen and won.  But Stanford lost the doubles point in that match.  The doubles point may be as crucial again on Sunday.

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - oldalum - 05-19-2017

(05-19-2017, 08:37 AM)2006alum link Wrote:It couldn't have been later than 6 a.m. PST when we had to take the court for warmups,
even worse, I think the match (not warmups) started at 6 a.m. PST.

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-19-2017

Up next, as Spiny_Norman notes, is North Carolina.  That match will be at 12pm ET/9am PT (so, not as bad as today, for either the players or the fans back in California), and you can follow along through the same link on the University of Georgia athletics website. 

Some details about the teams:

* UNC is the #2 overall seed in the tournament, despite being ranked #4 in the ITA rankings.  Stanford, by contrast, is the #7 seed while being ranked #6, so it's much closer than you'd expect to see from a 2-7 matchup. 
* UNC is 33-2 on the year, while Stanford's win over Michigan gives the Cardinal a 24-2 record.  Both teams lost to #1 Florida, while UNC also lost to #8 Georgia Tech and Stanford lost to #12 Pepperdine (which, by the way, is an excellent team that is better than its ranking--it dominates the weak WCC, so the Waves can't get enough quality wins to climb higher in the rankings). 
* Common opponents:  Oregon (Stanford won 7-0 and 4-0, UNC won 4-0); Texas (Stanford won 4-2, UNC won 4-0); Cal (Stanford won 4-3 and 4-1, UNC won 4-2); and Florida (Stanford lost 4-1, UNC lost 4-2).  Not a ton to learn there, except to underscore that this is a close matchup. 
* UNC cruised 4-0 today, to be sure, but some of that is an accident of timing.  They won in straight sets at the top 3 courts, but Duke won the first sets at the 4, 5, and 6 courts.  Duke was close to booking a win at the #4 court as UNC was serving out a 6-4, 6-4 win at #3, so if Duke could have extended that match and sent that match to a third set, all of a sudden you're looking at a 3-1 match with #3 going to a third set and Duke leading at #5 and #6.  Momentum is a crazy thing in every sport, but it definitely exists in college tennis, too.   

That reveals an interesting matchup issue.  UNC is very strong at the top 3 courts, while Stanford is strong on the back courts.  It wouldn't at all surprise me to see UNC win at the top 3 spots with Stanford winning the bottom 3 spots and doubles being the deciding factor. 

The matchups:

Singles: 

* At #1, #38 Caroline Doyle faces #2 Hayley Carter.  Carter is nasty.  Spiny_Norman is absolutely correct not to expect a win here. 
* At #2, we should see a very competitive match, as #28 Lord faces #18 Sara Daavettila.  Lord has been ranked as high as #8 this year, so she can absolutely do it.  Lord, at her best, is the best player on the team--she found a crazy high gear in January en route to winning the Freeman Memorial Championships, where she beat four players currently in the Top 50.  Sure would be nice for her to find that on Sunday!
* At #3, #54 Davidson plays #35 Jessie Aney, and honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Davidson dominated her.  I also wouldn't be surprised if Davidson lost in straight sets.  But more likely, it'll be something like today, with it going the distance after a couple of uneven sets. 
* At #4, #90 Lampl plays #74 Alexa Graham, who was trailing 7-5, 4-1 (30-love) when her match was suspended today.  This should be a very even match.  But it's NCAAs, so I'm not betting against Lampl.
* At #5, Arbuthnott is unranked (which is bizarre, given how terrific she's been this year) and she plays #100 Makenna Jones.  By ranking and considering the stakes, you'd expect this one to be close.  That said, Arbuthnott crushed Jones 6-1, 6-3 at the Freeman Memorial Championships (a preseason tournament).  The match was outside the main bracket, however, so it's not terribly predictive.  A positive data point, though. 
* At #6, #71 Higuchi plays unranked Chloe Oullet-Pizer.  Anything other than a Higuchi straight sets win is now surprising to me, and no reason to think that won't continue on Sunday. 

Basically, UNC should win at #1 and Stanford should win at #6, but the other four singles matches should be competitive. 

Doubles:

Before that, though, we'll know how things stand in doubles:

* At #1, UNC will be favored (the duo of Carter and Aney is ranked #4, while Davidson/Arbuthnott are ranked #39)
* At #2, Doyle and Lord are ranked #46, and UNC's duo of Cassandra Vazquez (who doesn't play singles) and Graham is unranked, but UNC has shuffled its doubles lineups this year a decent amount, so they haven't really picked up enough rankings points as a team to be ranked.  Vazquez played part of the year with Aney, and the points they earned together are still good enough for the #78 ranking nationally. 
* At #3, Higuchi/Lampl vs. Jones/Daavettila.  Daavettila played part of the year with Carter, and the points they earned together are still good enough for the #27 ranking nationally. 

Thus, for Stanford to win the doubles point, we'll need wins from the #2 and #3 spots, which will be difficult but doable. 

All in all, UNC is probably favored, but not heavily.  It's not hard to envision a scenario where Stanford wins a tight doubles point, gets a quick win from Higuchi to go up 2-0, and gets two more wins somewhere from 2-5, and pulls out a 4-2 or 4-3 win. 


Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - fullmetal - 05-19-2017

Solid write-up.  Gotta count on the X-factor being the Stanford coaching staff and their ability to coach their players into winners :)

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - DC 86 - 05-19-2017

Great write-ups, thanks Colorado Tree.

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - BigEasyCard - 05-19-2017

(05-19-2017, 11:15 AM)DC 86 link Wrote:Great write-ups, thanks Colorado Tree.

Yes, very strong signal.  Good stuff also from Spiny_Norman and OldAlum.

Geaux Cardinal!

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-19-2017

Thanks, all!  This team's near-constant success has made me a pretty avid fan.  Plenty of exciting moments throughout the season, and usually some incredible drama in the NCAA tournament. Easy to root for a team that is always in the mix for a national title!

FYI, it's been a disappointing NCAA tournament for the Pac-12 overall.  Sure, there's Stanford, and cal is still hanging around (they're the #13 seed, and they just lost the doubles point to #4 Vanderbilt with singles yet to start), but 7 Pac-12 teams made the tournament, and 6 (Stanford, cal, UCLA, SC, UW, and ASU) were favored in their first-round match (only Oregon faced a higher-ranked team in R1).  Only Stanford, Cal, and UCLA made it out of the first round, and only Stanford and cal made it to Athens for the Round of 16. 

Unless cal turns it around against an excellent Vanderbilt team, Stanford will be the only Pac-12 team left.  (FYI, Vanderbilt upset #1 Florida to win the SEC. Stanford beat Vanderbilt 4-3 earlier this year at home when Arbuthnott won a third-set tiebreaker shortly after Lampl lost a third-set tiebreaker. Just a heck of a match, that one.)

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - oldalum - 05-19-2017

(05-19-2017, 10:36 AM)ColoradoTree link Wrote:It's not hard to envision a scenario where Stanford wins a tight doubles point, gets a quick win from Higuchi to go up 2-0, and gets two more wins somewhere from 2-5, and pulls out a 4-2 or 4-3 win.
your entire post is great analysis.
If we lose the doubles point, which I think we will, then I think our path will have to be the same as last year's NCAA championship match: win on 4-6 plus one of 2-3. Counting Higuchi as a sure thing, Lampl and Arbuthnott are must-wins (both very probable), and either Davidson or Lord must come through. Odds are not in our favor but we can do it without the doubles point.

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - Spiny_Norman - 05-19-2017

(05-19-2017, 10:36 AM)ColoradoTree link Wrote:Both teams lost to #1 Florida, while UNC also lost to #8 Georgia Tech and Stanford lost to #12 Pepperdine (which, by the way, is an excellent team that is better than its ranking--it dominates the weak WCC, so the Waves can't get enough quality wins to climb higher in the rankings). 

A prescient comment, ColoradoTree. Pepperdine won a thrilling match 4-3 over host and #4 seed Georgia.  Oklahoma State knocked off Georgia Tech so the local schools are both out of the women's bracket.

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - oldalum - 05-20-2017

If we play indoors Sunday vs. UNC, if it is air conditioned this might help us a lot. Even if it is not air conditioned, being out of the direct sunlight would be good. Davidson in particular has difficulty with cramping during matches.

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - StanfordMatt - 05-20-2017

Not so sure about that, oldalum. Understand your point about the weather but indoor courts play much faster than outdoor courts and I'd guess that our players have less experience playing indoors than any team in the tournament - especially considering we always skip the ITA National Indoor Championships.

Historically speaking, Stanford men and women's teams (when the latter did compete in the ITAs) have always struggled playing indoors.

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - oldalum - 05-20-2017

(05-20-2017, 12:33 PM)StanfordMatt link Wrote:Historically speaking, Stanford men and women's teams (when the latter did compete in the ITAs) have always struggled playing indoors.
That may be true but we achieved our biggest margin of victory in last year's NCAA tournament (after the first round) indoors against Vanderbilt last year in the NCAA semifinals, and Vanderbilt practices and plays a lot indoors.

I ventured this thought because I think we are at a disadvantage playing in the high heat + high humidity in Georgia (and Tulsa last year) against teams that practice and play in it all the time.

Re: NCAA Women's Tennis Tournament - StanfordMatt - 05-20-2017

Great point. Forgot about the Vandy match. Men's matches are shifting indoors right now so who know what will happen tomorrow.