Great adjustment - Printable Version
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Re: Great adjustment - BostonCard - 09-24-2017
![[Image: 3688516023_07450826e5_o.png]](http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2618/3688516023_07450826e5_o.png)
Fourth and 1 from the 33 should have been an easy decision to go for it. Fourth and 6 from the 38 also would have dictated going for it.
The value of a first down in your opponents territory is undervalued.
BC
Re: Great adjustment - martyup - 09-24-2017
(09-24-2017, 12:49 PM)Boston Card link Wrote:
Fourth and 1 from the 33 should have been an easy decision to go for it. Fourth and 6 from the 38 also would have dictated going for it.
The value of a first down in your opponents territory is undervalued.
BC
This graph would have "go for it" on 4th and 10 with 38 yards to the end zone. Also, it would have you "go for it" when it's 4th and 2 and you have 98 yards to the end zone. I'm not sure about the source of this data, but I wouldn't think these would be accepted decisions in most coaching circles.
Re: Great adjustment - fullmetal - 09-24-2017
martyup, are you reading that chart right? I'm not sure I see what you're saying...?
Re: Great adjustment - martyup - 09-24-2017
(09-24-2017, 02:19 PM)fullmetal link Wrote:martyup, are you reading that chart right? I'm not sure I see what you're saying...?
Pick a point on the chart and look at the distance to the endzone (x axis) and yards to gain for the first down (y axis), the see what zone that point falls into on the chart (go for it, punt, or FG).
Re: Great adjustment - DC 86 - 09-24-2017
(09-24-2017, 02:19 PM)fullmetal link Wrote:martyup, are you reading that chart right? I'm not sure I see what you're saying...?
It doesn't say to go for it on 4th and 10 when 55 yards away from the end zone, but it does say that on 4th and 1 you should go for it from any position on the field.
Re: Great adjustment - BostonCard - 09-24-2017
Fourth and 10 from your own 45 is a definite punt based on the diagram. Going for it on fourth and 1 is based on the high conversion percentage for those plays and the relative value of possession versus field position. That being said, in most game situations few head coaches would go for it on fourth down from within their own 40, probability be damned.
I would consider it, though, if I were the underdog in the game and wanted to maximize the chance of an upset (at the cost of a blowout loss).
BC
Re: Great adjustment - martyup - 09-24-2017
(09-24-2017, 02:26 PM)DC 86 link Wrote:[quote author=fullmetal link=topic=17482.msg202632#msg202632 date=1506287959]
martyup, are you reading that chart right? I'm not sure I see what you're saying...?
It doesn't say to go for it on 4th and 10 when 55 yards away from the end zone, but it does say that on 4th and 1 you should go for it from any position on the field.
[/quote]
Corrected it. I should have written "38 yards away from the end zone."Â
Re: Great adjustment - BostonCard - 09-24-2017
(09-24-2017, 02:58 PM)martyup link Wrote:[quote author=DC 86 link=topic=17482.msg202636#msg202636 date=1506288405]
[quote author=fullmetal link=topic=17482.msg202632#msg202632 date=1506287959]
martyup, are you reading that chart right? I'm not sure I see what you're saying...?
It doesn't say to go for it on 4th and 10 when 55 yards away from the end zone, but it does say that on 4th and 1 you should go for it from any position on the field.
[/quote]
Corrected it. I should have written "38 yards away from the end zone."
[/quote]
38 yards from the end zone is too far for most kickers to kick a field goal. If you punt, theres a good chance you net 18 yards by kicking it out the end zone. The difference between giving the ball to your opponent at the 38, and at the 10(which would be the average punting outcome) is not that big. So yeah, you go for it under most circumstances.
BC
Re: Great adjustment - stupac2 - 09-24-2017
(09-24-2017, 10:55 AM)dabigv link Wrote:4th and 1, should probably go for it in that field position, but Shaw never does that.???? We might not do it as much as I'd like, but we definitely do it. We've already gone for it on 4th 3 times this year, we did it 12 times last year, 16 in 2015, 10 in 2014, etc. I can't narrow it to down/distance easily, but since that situation is really the one where you most obviously go for it, you'd expect most of them to be something like that (plus I can remember doing it a bunch, especially in 2015). I'm really surprised you'd say that given how trivially false it is...
Re: Great adjustment - dabigv13 - 09-24-2017
(09-24-2017, 07:59 PM)stupac2 link Wrote:[quote author=dabigv link=topic=17482.msg202552#msg202552 date=1506275730]4th and 1, should probably go for it in that field position, but Shaw never does that.???? We might not do it as much as I'd like, but we definitely do it. We've already gone for it on 4th 3 times this year, we did it 12 times last year, 16 in 2015, 10 in 2014, etc. I can't narrow it to down/distance easily, but since that situation is really the one where you most obviously go for it, you'd expect most of them to be something like that (plus I can remember doing it a bunch, especially in 2015). I'm really surprised you'd say that given how trivially false it is...
[/quote]
Yeah "never" probably wasn't the best term, but from my recollection, I don't remember many 4th and 1 attempts from that area.
In terms of 4th downs in general, California is 10 of 13 for 4th so far, Arizona 9 for 11, Arizona State 4 for 8, UCLA 4 of 6, Utah and Wazzu 3 of 5, USC 0 for 5, Oregon 1 for 5, Washington 1 for 2, Colorado 1 for 3, Oregon State 2 for 4. We are 1 for 3.
Didn't look up previous years because the ESPN stats site doesn't seem to want to navigate there on my phone, but clearly Shaw is on the conservative end of the Pac 12 thus far this season, and I'd wager 12, 16, and 10 for a season in previous years is on the lower end of the conference as well, though if someone can find them that would be nice.
Kicker quality is an x factor here as well. If we think Toner is a great kicker, maybe sending him out for a 50 yarder makes sense. If Shaw doesn't have much confidence, maybe more prone to go for it. But again, if he's that good, then kicking it from 55 would seem comparatively easier than getting 6 yards.
The whole thing seemed to me to smack of emotion trumping (Shaw) reason, something very out of character.
Re: Great adjustment - CTcard - 09-24-2017
(09-24-2017, 11:16 AM)jacketree link Wrote:I think Stanford was down 6-13 at the time. A field goal was something, but it didn't feel like that big a deal in the moment and ultimately 92 points were scored.
Just my opinion, but with a defense you aren't sure will stop Rosen from anywhere on the field, I don't think those 30 yards (assuming a good net punt) mean all that much. This was with a lot of time left before halftime, so that wouldn't play into it. I think you are right that Shaw finally had enough and said to hell with it.
The fourth down play occurred with about 5:00 to go in third quarter with Stanford up 30-20.
Re: Great adjustment - Mick - 09-25-2017
(09-24-2017, 09:34 AM)Goose link Wrote:Toner didn't have enough distance on the kick from 50. That made it fairly certain he wasn't going to make it from 55 -- a long kick even for a pro -- so field goal attempt was off the table.
The field goal try was messed up. The ball was snapped out of rhythm and unexpectedly because we we going to get a penalty (which we did). Toner can kick a 50 yard field goal if the play is on time and in rhythm. Why nobody called time out is the real question. You shouldn't get a delay of game penalty under those conditions.
I thought we were trying to draw UCLA offsides and were just awkward about it.
Re: Great adjustment - stupac2 - 09-25-2017
(09-24-2017, 08:36 PM)dabigv link Wrote:Yeah "never" probably wasn't the best term, but from my recollection, I don't remember many 4th and 1 attempts from that area.
In terms of 4th downs in general, California is 10 of 13 for 4th so far, Arizona 9 for 11, Arizona State 4 for 8, UCLA 4 of 6, Utah and Wazzu 3 of 5, U$C 0 for 5, Oregon 1 for 5, Washington 1 for 2, Colorado 1 for 3, Oregon State 2 for 4. We are 1 for 3.
Didn't look up previous years because the ESPN stats site doesn't seem to want to navigate there on my phone, but clearly Shaw is on the conservative end of the Pac 12 thus far this season, and I'd wager 12, 16, and 10 for a season in previous years is on the lower end of the conference as well, though if someone can find them that would be nice.
Kicker quality is an x factor here as well. If we think Toner is a great kicker, maybe sending him out for a 50 yarder makes sense. If Shaw doesn't have much confidence, maybe more prone to go for it. But again, if he's that good, then kicking it from 55 would seem comparatively easier than getting 6 yards.
The whole thing seemed to me to smack of emotion trumping (Shaw) reason, something very out of character.
I think Shaw's decisions about going for it are on the conservative end of CFB, but around the median for football generally (the NFL is soooo bad). That said, my general impression is that he's significantly more aggressive when we have a really good offense and/or a bad defense. Of the ones I listed 2015 was the highest, 2014 the lowest, and '16 in the middle. I think that makes some sense.
Re: Great adjustment - hardball01 - 09-25-2017
Forgive me if someone already mentioned this but the thought I had was that Shaw was looking to instill confidence in two of his young players. In kicking the field goal on 4th and 1 he was communicating to Toner that he trusted him to kick the long field goal. In going for it on 4th and 6 (and having Costello throw it) he was communicating that he trusted him to be accurate and decisive in a high pressure moment. Maybe it was not x's and o's as much as psychology with his players.
Re: Great adjustment - North Woods - 09-25-2017
There doesn't really seem to be a strong consensus about what to do in which scenarios. See for example:
- NY Times 4th Down Bot https://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/05/upshot/4th-down-when-to-go-for-it-and-why.html. This is done for the NFL, but argues that you should essentially always go for it on 4th and 1 while recognizing that coaches are typically much more conservative.
- Football Study Hall https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2017/9/14/16300604/college-football-fourth-down-conversions. Shows a chart that overall looks like the one posted by Boston Card earlier.
Re: Great adjustment - BostonCard - 09-25-2017
Here are my thoughts...
On offense: the better your offense, the more you should go for it (higher probability of successful conversin)
The better your kicker, the more you would want to kick a field goal
The more precise your punter (or, on the other side of the field, the stronger his leg and better kick coverage) the more you would want to punt
The above should be pretty obvious
On defense, it is less aparent. You should generally go for it if your opponent's offense is either really good or really bad. The best way to think of this is to think of the extreme cases. If the opponent's offense is perfect (that is, it will always score a TD), then it doesn't matter if they get the ball on their own 1 yard line or on their own 40; they will score. Likewise, if the opponent's offense is aweful and will never advance the ball, it doesn't matter if you give them the ball at the their own 1 or their own 40, they will punt.
BC
Re: Great adjustment - Goose - 09-25-2017
(09-25-2017, 05:09 AM)Mick link Wrote:[quote author=Goose link=topic=17482.msg202523#msg202523 date=1506270892]
Toner didn't have enough distance on the kick from 50. That made it fairly certain he wasn't going to make it from 55 -- a long kick even for a pro -- so field goal attempt was off the table.
The field goal try was messed up. The ball was snapped out of rhythm and unexpectedly because we we going to get a penalty (which we did). Toner can kick a 50 yard field goal if the play is on time and in rhythm. Why nobody called time out is the real question. You shouldn't get a delay of game penalty under those conditions.
I thought we were trying to draw UCLA offsides and were just awkward about it.
[/quote]
You could be correct. I hadn't considered that Shaw might try that, but it could be true. Could it be he actually decided "We try to draw them offside, and if that doesn't work, we go for it". Maybe we were supposed to call a time-out at the last moment and just didn't? Interesting thought.