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Re: Taking stock of the season - lex24 - 12-30-2017

Agree. There is a synergistic aspect. Good post. Only nit - defense was down more than Reid. Cotton Alfieri Holder. I think Robinson went down during the game. 



(12-30-2017, 11:03 AM)Langdude link Wrote:Good ideas.

For those who point to TOP as the "one reason" as to why we lost, I think that TOP only tells part of the story. Was the defense tired? Totally. But that wasn't merely because the offense wasn't staying on the field long enough. We did win the TOP battle by a margin not unlike games we win. Of course there were times in the game when we did not have a typical long drive, and I do think the offense was not as productive at crucial times (especially late) as it could have been. (Seems we were effective in the red zone, though!) But another reason the defense was on the field so much was because they couldn't stop TCU; a good way to get off the field is to stop the other team on third down. Did injuries play a part? Of course. But, again, I am less eager to point to that as the "one reason." Injuries happen ALL THE TIME in football, and elite teams have to find a way to keep going. Are we less good when Justin Reid goes out? Yes. He's awesome. If our defense goes from being good to being bad based solely on him, we're in trouble. It seems that a defensive backfield of Murphy, Meeks, Edwards, Simmons, Butler, Antoine should be fine, no? One player is not the reason for TCU just gashing us. It contributes, along with us getting zero pressure on the QB and not stopping the run after 1Q and insufficient coverage by several players.

Lots of reasons why we lost. But I think we are not very talented or deep at some critical positions, I think some of our key players underperformed or made critical mistakes, and I think some of our playcalls were questionable. I wonder about how ready we were? But TCU has something to do with all of these things, of course. They were better.

I could be wrong about any of this. I'm still bummed about the loss.

-m.


Re: Taking stock of the season - lex24 - 12-30-2017

Agree. There is a synergistic aspect. Good post. Only nit - defense was down more than Reid. Cotton Alfieri Holder. I think Robinson went down during the game. 



(12-30-2017, 11:03 AM)Langdude link Wrote:Good ideas.

For those who point to TOP as the "one reason" as to why we lost, I think that TOP only tells part of the story. Was the defense tired? Totally. But that wasn't merely because the offense wasn't staying on the field long enough. We did win the TOP battle by a margin not unlike games we win. Of course there were times in the game when we did not have a typical long drive, and I do think the offense was not as productive at crucial times (especially late) as it could have been. (Seems we were effective in the red zone, though!) But another reason the defense was on the field so much was because they couldn't stop TCU; a good way to get off the field is to stop the other team on third down. Did injuries play a part? Of course. But, again, I am less eager to point to that as the "one reason." Injuries happen ALL THE TIME in football, and elite teams have to find a way to keep going. Are we less good when Justin Reid goes out? Yes. He's awesome. If our defense goes from being good to being bad based solely on him, we're in trouble. It seems that a defensive backfield of Murphy, Meeks, Edwards, Simmons, Butler, Antoine should be fine, no? One player is not the reason for TCU just gashing us. It contributes, along with us getting zero pressure on the QB and not stopping the run after 1Q and insufficient coverage by several players.

Lots of reasons why we lost. But I think we are not very talented or deep at some critical positions, I think some of our key players underperformed or made critical mistakes, and I think some of our playcalls were questionable. I wonder about how ready we were? But TCU has something to do with all of these things, of course. They were better.

I could be wrong about any of this. I'm still bummed about the loss.

-m.


Re: Taking stock of the season - Langdude - 12-30-2017

Thanks, Lex. Yes, I meant in-game losses. We looked great defensively in 1Q. We did lose Robinson who was the spy before Perez, I believe.

-m.

(12-30-2017, 11:13 AM)lex24 link Wrote:Agree. There is a synergistic aspect. Good post. Only nit - defense was down more than Reid. Cotton Alfieri Holder. I think Robinson went down during the game. 



[quote author=Langdude link=topic=18456.msg219841#msg219841 date=1514656991]
Good ideas.

For those who point to TOP as the "one reason" as to why we lost, I think that TOP only tells part of the story. Was the defense tired? Totally. But that wasn't merely because the offense wasn't staying on the field long enough. We did win the TOP battle by a margin not unlike games we win. Of course there were times in the game when we did not have a typical long drive, and I do think the offense was not as productive at crucial times (especially late) as it could have been. (Seems we were effective in the red zone, though!) But another reason the defense was on the field so much was because they couldn't stop TCU; a good way to get off the field is to stop the other team on third down. Did injuries play a part? Of course. But, again, I am less eager to point to that as the "one reason." Injuries happen ALL THE TIME in football, and elite teams have to find a way to keep going. Are we less good when Justin Reid goes out? Yes. He's awesome. If our defense goes from being good to being bad based solely on him, we're in trouble. It seems that a defensive backfield of Murphy, Meeks, Edwards, Simmons, Butler, Antoine should be fine, no? One player is not the reason for TCU just gashing us. It contributes, along with us getting zero pressure on the QB and not stopping the run after 1Q and insufficient coverage by several players.

Lots of reasons why we lost. But I think we are not very talented or deep at some critical positions, I think some of our key players underperformed or made critical mistakes, and I think some of our playcalls were questionable. I wonder about how ready we were? But TCU has something to do with all of these things, of course. They were better.

I could be wrong about any of this. I'm still bummed about the loss.

-m.
[/quote]

Re: Taking stock of the season - Langdude - 12-30-2017

Thanks, Lex. Yes, I meant in-game losses. We looked great defensively in 1Q. We did lose Robinson who was the spy before Perez, I believe.

-m.

(12-30-2017, 11:13 AM)lex24 link Wrote:Agree. There is a synergistic aspect. Good post. Only nit - defense was down more than Reid. Cotton Alfieri Holder. I think Robinson went down during the game. 



[quote author=Langdude link=topic=18456.msg219841#msg219841 date=1514656991]
Good ideas.

For those who point to TOP as the "one reason" as to why we lost, I think that TOP only tells part of the story. Was the defense tired? Totally. But that wasn't merely because the offense wasn't staying on the field long enough. We did win the TOP battle by a margin not unlike games we win. Of course there were times in the game when we did not have a typical long drive, and I do think the offense was not as productive at crucial times (especially late) as it could have been. (Seems we were effective in the red zone, though!) But another reason the defense was on the field so much was because they couldn't stop TCU; a good way to get off the field is to stop the other team on third down. Did injuries play a part? Of course. But, again, I am less eager to point to that as the "one reason." Injuries happen ALL THE TIME in football, and elite teams have to find a way to keep going. Are we less good when Justin Reid goes out? Yes. He's awesome. If our defense goes from being good to being bad based solely on him, we're in trouble. It seems that a defensive backfield of Murphy, Meeks, Edwards, Simmons, Butler, Antoine should be fine, no? One player is not the reason for TCU just gashing us. It contributes, along with us getting zero pressure on the QB and not stopping the run after 1Q and insufficient coverage by several players.

Lots of reasons why we lost. But I think we are not very talented or deep at some critical positions, I think some of our key players underperformed or made critical mistakes, and I think some of our playcalls were questionable. I wonder about how ready we were? But TCU has something to do with all of these things, of course. They were better.

I could be wrong about any of this. I'm still bummed about the loss.

-m.
[/quote]

Re: Taking stock of the season - winflop - 12-30-2017

(12-30-2017, 11:13 AM)lex24 link Wrote:Agree. There is a synergistic aspect. Good post. Only nit - defense was down more than Reid. Cotton Alfieri Holder. I think Robinson went down during the game.

Robinson went down in Q3. So did Swann and Buncom.

Re: Taking stock of the season - winflop - 12-30-2017

(12-30-2017, 11:13 AM)lex24 link Wrote:Agree. There is a synergistic aspect. Good post. Only nit - defense was down more than Reid. Cotton Alfieri Holder. I think Robinson went down during the game.

Robinson went down in Q3. So did Swann and Buncom.

Re: Taking stock of the season - Goose - 12-30-2017

(12-30-2017, 05:40 PM)winflop link Wrote:Robinson went down in Q3. So did Swann and Buncom.
Thanks for the info. I knew about Buncom, but not about Swann.

Re: Taking stock of the season - Goose - 12-30-2017

(12-30-2017, 05:40 PM)winflop link Wrote:Robinson went down in Q3. So did Swann and Buncom.
Thanks for the info. I knew about Buncom, but not about Swann.

Re: Taking stock of the season - Beeg_Dawg - 12-30-2017

(12-30-2017, 06:34 PM)Goose link Wrote:[quote author=winflop link=topic=18456.msg219880#msg219880 date=1514680806]
Robinson went down in Q3. So did Swann and Buncom.
Thanks for the info. I knew about Buncom, but not about Swann.
[/quote]

ToP by itself is meaningless.  I recall some games against Oregon we enjoyed a 3 to 1 advantage on ToP and lost.  Toss in point per possession and you have a decent metric for offensive efficiency.  Maybe points per minute.

Re: Taking stock of the season - Beeg_Dawg - 12-30-2017

(12-30-2017, 06:34 PM)Goose link Wrote:[quote author=winflop link=topic=18456.msg219880#msg219880 date=1514680806]
Robinson went down in Q3. So did Swann and Buncom.
Thanks for the info. I knew about Buncom, but not about Swann.
[/quote]

ToP by itself is meaningless.  I recall some games against Oregon we enjoyed a 3 to 1 advantage on ToP and lost.  Toss in point per possession and you have a decent metric for offensive efficiency.  Maybe points per minute.

Re: Taking stock of the season - Goose - 12-31-2017

(12-30-2017, 11:49 PM)BeegDawg link Wrote:[quote author=Goose link=topic=18456.msg219893#msg219893 date=1514684080]
[quote author=winflop link=topic=18456.msg219880#msg219880 date=1514680806]
Robinson went down in Q3. So did Swann and Buncom.
Thanks for the info. I knew about Buncom, but not about Swann.
[/quote]

ToP by itself is meaningless.
[/quote]
I can't agree that it is meaningless, especially for Stanford. It is not a sufficient statistic to evaluate offensive performance, but it is still valuable. If Stanford doesn't win the TOP battle, we very probably won't win the game. We play slow. By that alone, all other things being equal, we should win the TOP battle. We play slow at least partly to protect our chronic lack of depth on defense, particularly the defensive line. We have not just started doing this in the last two years. We have done this in all the Shaw years and most of the JH years.
Quote:I recall some games against Oregon we enjoyed a 3 to 1 advantage on ToP and lost.
Yes, because we couldn't stop them at all. Without the TOP advantage, it would have been even worse.  :)
Quote:Toss in point per possession and you have a decent metric for offensive efficiency.  Maybe points per minute.
Points per possession I will buy as a good metric of offensive efficiency. If you score every time you get the ball, that is perfect. Points per minute is, I think, meaningless. In our case, we want to shorten the game. When you do that, you have to score with a high rate of efficiency, but taking a long time to do so is actually good.

Re: Taking stock of the season - Goose - 12-31-2017

(12-30-2017, 11:49 PM)BeegDawg link Wrote:[quote author=Goose link=topic=18456.msg219893#msg219893 date=1514684080]
[quote author=winflop link=topic=18456.msg219880#msg219880 date=1514680806]
Robinson went down in Q3. So did Swann and Buncom.
Thanks for the info. I knew about Buncom, but not about Swann.
[/quote]

ToP by itself is meaningless.
[/quote]
I can't agree that it is meaningless, especially for Stanford. It is not a sufficient statistic to evaluate offensive performance, but it is still valuable. If Stanford doesn't win the TOP battle, we very probably won't win the game. We play slow. By that alone, all other things being equal, we should win the TOP battle. We play slow at least partly to protect our chronic lack of depth on defense, particularly the defensive line. We have not just started doing this in the last two years. We have done this in all the Shaw years and most of the JH years.
Quote:I recall some games against Oregon we enjoyed a 3 to 1 advantage on ToP and lost.
Yes, because we couldn't stop them at all. Without the TOP advantage, it would have been even worse.  :)
Quote:Toss in point per possession and you have a decent metric for offensive efficiency.  Maybe points per minute.
Points per possession I will buy as a good metric of offensive efficiency. If you score every time you get the ball, that is perfect. Points per minute is, I think, meaningless. In our case, we want to shorten the game. When you do that, you have to score with a high rate of efficiency, but taking a long time to do so is actually good.