P12 Media Day - Printable Version

P12 Media Day - Printable Version

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RE: P12 Media Day - CTcard - 07-28-2018

(07-26-2018, 12:12 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Were you not around when we had Andrew Luck throwing to Doug Baldwin, Ryan Whalen, Chris Owusu, Griff Whalen, Konrad Reuland, Coby Fleener, and Zach Ertz, with Stepfan Taylor and Tyler Gaffney running the ball behind Owen Marecic, and an offensive line that featured Jonathan Martin, Andrew Phillips, Chase Beeler, David DeCastro, and Derek Hall?

That roster featured Zach Ertz, a future NFL star, third on the depth chart. Every single skill player on that roster would later play in the NFL, several (Luck, Baldwin, Fleener, Ertz, DeCastro) becoming stars. The only two guys that never played a game in the NFL were Phillips and Hall. With all due respect to the talent on the roster this year, which is extensive, it doesn't hold a candle to the talent on that 2010 roster.

BC

This is obviously a tough analysis, made impossible by the fact that 2018 hasn't happened yet.

First off, for my money 2011 was a better offense, though that is a close call. The pass game was a little more dynamic with a senior Luck and Taylor as a junior was a little stronger than Taylor as a sophomore. I would note, however, that most advanced stats prefer the 2010 offense. And 2015 with McCaffrey setting the all-time all purpose yards record is at least in the neighborhood.

In looking at 2010, you cannot do things like count in senior Zach Ertz. In 2010 he was a sophomore (first year player), and while clearly showing potential he clearly wasn't yet as good as he became in 2012, and he didn't have all that many snaps and only 16 receptions - though an impressive 5 TDs.

The 2010 starting lineup was, more or less:
Luck, Taylor, Marecic, Baldwin, R. Whalen, Reuland, Martin, Phillips, Beeler, DeCastro, Hall.
The next most important contributors were Gaffney, Fleener, G. Whalen.
Along with the guys you note, I don't think Beeler ever played a game in the NFL. And while I think Gaffney nominally has two superbowl titles while he was under contract with the Pats, I am not sure he ever got into a game. I cannot find any stats for him at any rate.

The major weakness on that team versus what we can at least imagine we will see in 2018 is the star power of the OL. "Only" two of that starting five played in the NFL. Of course no one knows what the count will be from the 2018 OL - but at the moment I'd guess they would slip past that.
Love is better than Taylor was, though the depth at RB was better in 2010 than we'll probably see in 2018.
I like the potential of the pass catchers in 2018 better, though obviously Whalen, Baldwin, Fleener et al. gave lots of production - more than we have seen yet from the 2018 group.

The big, giant, (but not h.uge) plus for 2010 was at QB. I have hopes for Costello, but the chances that he is even nearly as good as 2010 Luck is very small. QB is by far the most important position on the field, even for Stanford. 2018 cannot make up for it via depth since Luck took every meaningful snap in 2010.
[As they say, the least important player on the team is the backup QB unless he suddenly becomes the most important player on the team.]

Putting it all together, at this point I don't expect the 2018 offense to quite match our very best of recent years, but I do think it might be able to be the best of the lot if everything breaks correctly.

By the way, here are what I think are some key overall stats for our best recent offenses and, to see how far they have to go, last year.

Stat 2010 2011 2015 2017
Pts/poss 3.68, #2 3.56, #2 3.58, #2 2.78, #18
Yds/play 6.72, #13 6.80, #6 6.57, #19 6.45, #17
O-FEI* 1.57, #1 1.16, #6 1.45, #2 2.97, #14
O-S&P+ ** 135.0, #3 133.2, #8 41.2, #12 33.4, #29

* It looks like the detailed formula for O-FEI changed for 2017, though I cannot see a note to that effect on Fremeau's web site.
** For certain the formula for S&P+ changed between 2011 and 2015, though again I cannot see a note to that effect on the Football Outsiders web site.

RE: P12 Media Day - murky - 07-29-2018

(07-28-2018, 08:15 PM)CTcard Wrote:
(07-26-2018, 12:12 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Were you not around when we had Andrew Luck throwing to Doug Baldwin, Ryan Whalen, Chris Owusu, Griff Whalen, Konrad Reuland, Coby Fleener, and Zach Ertz, with Stepfan Taylor and Tyler Gaffney running the ball behind Owen Marecic, and an offensive line that featured Jonathan Martin, Andrew Phillips, Chase Beeler, David DeCastro, and Derek Hall?

That roster featured Zach Ertz, a future NFL star, third on the depth chart. Every single skill player on that roster would later play in the NFL, several (Luck, Baldwin, Fleener, Ertz, DeCastro) becoming stars. The only two guys that never played a game in the NFL were Phillips and Hall. With all due respect to the talent on the roster this year, which is extensive, it doesn't hold a candle to the talent on that 2010 roster.

BC

This is obviously a tough analysis, made impossible by the fact that 2018 hasn't happened yet.

First off, for my money 2011 was a better offense, though that is a close call. The pass game was a little more dynamic with a senior Luck and Taylor as a junior was a little stronger than Taylor as a sophomore. I would note, however, that most advanced stats prefer the 2010 offense. And 2015 with McCaffrey setting the all-time all purpose yards record is at least in the neighborhood.

In looking at 2010, you cannot do things like count in senior Zach Ertz. In 2010 he was a sophomore (first year player), and while clearly showing potential he clearly wasn't yet as good as he became in 2012, and he didn't have all that many snaps and only 16 receptions - though an impressive 5 TDs.

The 2010 starting lineup was, more or less:
Luck, Taylor, Marecic, Baldwin, R. Whalen, Reuland, Martin, Phillips, Beeler, DeCastro, Hall.
The next most important contributors were Gaffney, Fleener, G. Whalen.
Along with the guys you note, I don't think Beeler ever played a game in the NFL. And while I think Gaffney nominally has two superbowl titles while he was under contract with the Pats, I am not sure he ever got into a game. I cannot find any stats for him at any rate.

The major weakness on that team versus what we can at least imagine we will see in 2018 is the star power of the OL. "Only" two of that starting five played in the NFL. Of course no one knows what the count will be from the 2018 OL - but at the moment I'd guess they would slip past that.
Love is better than Taylor was, though the depth at RB was better in 2010 than we'll probably see in 2018.
I like the potential of the pass catchers in 2018 better, though obviously Whalen, Baldwin, Fleener et al. gave lots of production - more than we have seen yet from the 2018 group.

The big, giant, (but not h.uge) plus for 2010 was at QB. I have hopes for Costello, but the chances that he is even nearly as good as 2010 Luck is very small. QB is by far the most important position on the field, even for Stanford. 2018 cannot make up for it via depth since Luck took every meaningful snap in 2010.
[As they say, the least important player on the team is the backup QB unless he suddenly becomes the most important player on the team.]

Putting it all together, at this point I don't expect the 2018 offense to quite match our very best of recent years, but I do think it might be able to be the best of the lot if everything breaks correctly.

By the way, here are what I think are some key overall stats for our best recent offenses and, to see how far they have to go, last year.

Stat 2010 2011 2015 2017
Pts/poss 3.68, #2 3.56, #2 3.58, #2 2.78, #18
Yds/play 6.72, #13 6.80, #6 6.57, #19 6.45, #17
O-FEI* 1.57, #1 1.16, #6 1.45, #2 2.97, #14
O-S&P+ ** 135.0, #3 133.2, #8 41.2, #12 33.4, #29

* It looks like the detailed formula for O-FEI changed for 2017, though I cannot see a note to that effect on Fremeau's web site.
** For certain the formula for S&P+ changed between 2011 and 2015, though again I cannot see a note to that effect on the Football Outsiders web site.

I think we should compare the potential 2018 offense to what we thought we had going into the 2011 season, not directly to the result of the 2011 season.

RE: P12 Media Day - BostonCard - 07-30-2018

(07-27-2018, 12:39 PM)martyup Wrote: I agree with OF. When evaluating the 2010 team, we have the benefit of hindsight. The potential of this team is to exceed the performance of all prior Stanford football teams. Few teams live up to their full potential. This is actually good, because otherwise Alabama would win the NC every season.

Sure, but what OF actually wrote was "On paper, this is the best offensive personnel with the most talented depth I can ever remember Stanford having", not "On paper, this year has the potential to be the best offensive personnel with the most talented depth I can ever remember Stanford having"

Let's see if 9 of the 11 starters (plus several backups including one third stringer) make it into the NFL and 3 become stars before we say that the talent this year is on par with 2010, let alone the best any of us can remember Stanford having.

BC

RE: P12 Media Day - CTcard - 07-30-2018

(07-30-2018, 02:43 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Let's see if 9 of the 11 starters (plus several backups including one third stringer) make it into the NFL

We will see, but of course only 8 of 11 starters from the 2010 team played in an NFL game, Phillips, Hall, Beeler did not as far as I can tell. Hall and Beeler apparently played in the preseason of both 2011 and 2012, but I cannot find a notation that they ever played in a regular season game.

It actually seems much more likely that several backups will. Largely because backups include lots of frosh, sophs and even juniors (RS sophs) who are going to be future year starters - some of whom will rise to be stars.

RE: P12 Media Day - Hank 91 - 07-31-2018

If you had told me ten years ago that there would be MULTIPLE years over the next decade in a which eight or more players from the Stanford offense would go on to have NFL careers... Not a chance I'd have believed it.