Kaden Smith declares for the draft

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RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - CTcard - 01-01-2019

(01-01-2019, 05:14 PM)Mick Wrote: I'm not so sure about KJ. QB Rating-wise, he's regressed from last year to this. He's thrown 11 interceptions, tied for the most in the NCAA's top 38 quarterbacks. He was better at rushing, scoring and scrambling last year, and has proven to be a slow scrambler. Here's from the Draft Network:

Quote:A sub/spot starter last season who lacks experience and polish. Unsettled in his pass drops; skittish and not ready to throw at all times. Has a poor pocket presence and will adjust to the slightest flash of color, often moving into more pressure–bad sense of space and bodies within the pocket. Will stare down his first read especially when it’s a short/quick throw, which will tip off aggressive DBs making flat-footed reads. Generally underthrows his receivers down the field and must get a better sense for protecting the football via leverage–this will hopefully grow as his harmony with his pass-catchers does.

Urgency and lack of poise in pass sets will lead to unacceptably high degrees of variance in his release point (see over-the-top and sidearm) and herky-jerky weight transfer through his release process; release will become elongated because his feet are out of time with his hands. Accordingly, accuracy can get hog-wild, because the process isn’t normalized. Will allow pressure to greatly truncate his release process and thereby drastically impact his accuracy, putting the ball in dangerous locations. Did become more calm in the pocket throughout the season/starts, so there is an existing developmental track. Is a project player.

That analysis of Costello is dated August 5. 2018. It has nothing to do with his 2018 performance.

It's not really true that he's regressed QB rating-wise.
In 2018 he had a PER of 155.0 (top in Pac 12) while shouldering the bulk of the offense and throwing for 272 yds/gm.
In 2017 he had a PER of 139.5 while complementing Love's running throwing for 172 yds/gm (games he was main QB).

It appears you may be referring to ESPN's QBR. He did drop from 88.1 (not enough snaps to list in national rankings) to 80.1 (#11 in the country).
To the extent that change has any significant meaning, it would seem to be due to the fact that Costello was more of a runner in 2017. He wasn't much more of a runner, but at least had net positive running yards (i.e. running yds greater than sack yards). This year the "read option" didn't really have any read in it except for rare occasions.

That said, there are some issues Costello has that would affect his draft status. It seems to me you are probably right about being a later round draft pick at this point.

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - needle - 01-01-2019

Not a fan of the comments about Herbig, but now I can't help but think the comment made in response to Wilson's announcement *might* be somehow related.

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - Mick - 01-01-2019

(01-01-2019, 09:23 PM)BostonCard Wrote:
(01-01-2019, 05:14 PM)Mick Wrote: I'm not so sure about KJ. QB Rating-wise, he's regressed from last year to this. He's thrown 11 interceptions, tied for the most in the NCAA's top 38 quarterbacks. He was better at rushing, scoring and scrambling last year, and has proven to be a slow scrambler. Here's from the Draft Network:

I don't disagree with you about his eval, but I don't think he's regressed vis a vis last year. By raw numbers, his ratings went up from 139.5 last year to 155 this year. That has mostly come because his completion percentage has improved from 59% to 65%, and his yards per attempt have gone up from a pretty good 7.5 to a very good 8.6. His touchdown percentage has also improved slightly from 6.6% to 7%, a sign of the greater reliance we've had on him.

His interception rate did double (from 1.3% to 2.6%), and I think that's a legitimate knock on him, but he's also had a lot of third and longs to convert because of our offensive issues. Five of his 11 interceptions have come on third and 10+ (on 33 attempts, a 15% INT rate), and another two on third and 7-9 (on 21 attempts, a 10% INT rate). So that is something to work on, but those are less damaging interceptions than on first down or second or third and short. Also, eight of his 11 interceptions have happened when losing, which is what you want; when the team is down, you want a "gunslinger" who will take some risks to try to bring the team back (as he did against Oregon). Only two of his interceptions were when the team was tied, and none were when we were leading by fewer than 14 points (he had one with a lead of over 14). By and large, this is the pattern you want in a QB; careful with the ball when we have a small lead and at favorable down/distances but willing to take a chance on third and long and when we are trailing.

He was definitely less of a threat with his legs this year; last year he had 92 yards of positive yardage; this year he had negative yardage for the year. Part of that is we've given up sacks. But certainly early in the year, he rarely scrambled for positive yards, and on read options, he almost never kept, allowing defensive ends to key in on the back. I think that is the after effects of his injury and surgery, and I think his mobility did improve in the later part of the season.

From my perspective, there are a couple things he can work on. His mobility has already been discussed, and if it really was an after effect of his injury and surgery, then I expect him to be better next year. The second thing will be hitting more of his receivers in stride now that JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Kaden Smith, and Trent Irwin will be gone. A lot of the throws to those guys were meant to hit them in one on one coverage where the receiver could make a play on the ball and out-muscle the defender. With the receivers he will have next year, he'll have more of an opportunity to throw to a receiver who has gotten a step on their DB, and will be hopefully be able to make yards after the catch if the ball is thrown well. And as other have noted, he can also improve on quick throws.

But overall, I disagree with the assessment that he regressed this year. He ended the season as the top Pac-12 QB in PER and yards per attempt (the latter tied with Browning, a senior), second in completion percentage, yards per game and touchdowns (Minshew was tops in all of those categories, because he had about 50% more attempts than Costello). Shockingly, Costello was second in the Pac-12 in attempts, so to be able to have a high PER despite the high usage rate says something.

BC

My apologies, I should have cited my source. I was referring to ESPN's adjusted QB Ratings, which had Costello at 88.1 in 2017 and 80.1 in 2018.

Unlike NCAA Passer Efficiency, which uses only box score statistics, Total QBR accounts for what a quarterback does on a play-by-play level, meaning it accounts for down, distance, field position, as well as the clock and score. A 5-yard gain on third-and-4 is a good play, whereas a 5-yard gain on third-and-14 isn't. A 20-yard touchdown pass when tied in the second quarter means more than a 20-yard touchdown pass when down 30 points late in the fourth quarter. QBR accounts for those things using analysis that turns traditional productivity into points on the scoreboard and wins in the standings.

It also accounts for a quarterback's ability to scramble, his ability to run on designed rush plays, how well he avoids sacks, drawing and committing penalties, and all-important fumbles, which can be significant for quarterbacks. Here's the link:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4044431/k.j.-costello

BTW, Costello is #11 in the NCAA with that metric. If he'd had the same number as last year, he'd be #3 in the NCAA.

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - JJJ - 01-02-2019

Maybe Troy Clardy can chime in here, but he thought that KJ was going to stay (when he inadvertently revealed Kaden was leaving), according to this tweet.

https://twitter.com/TroyClardy/status/1079912935579824129?s=20&fbclid=IwAR1yhvxckBFMf7lgplSVFYDlgQH60nryGaFDzMh99kr-7cqcTWS_g-uMcpI

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - BostonCard - 01-02-2019

(01-01-2019, 10:33 PM)Mick Wrote: My apologies, I should have cited my source. I was referring to ESPN's adjusted QB Ratings, which had Costello at 88.1 in 2017 and 80.1 in 2018.

Unlike NCAA Passer Efficiency, which uses only box score statistics, Total QBR accounts for what a quarterback does on a play-by-play level, meaning it accounts for down, distance, field position, as well as the clock and score. A 5-yard gain on third-and-4 is a good play, whereas a 5-yard gain on third-and-14 isn't. A 20-yard touchdown pass when tied in the second quarter means more than a 20-yard touchdown pass when down 30 points late in the fourth quarter. QBR accounts for those things using analysis that turns traditional productivity into points on the scoreboard and wins in the standings.

It also accounts for a quarterback's ability to scramble, his ability to run on designed rush plays, how well he avoids sacks, drawing and committing penalties, and all-important fumbles, which can be significant for quarterbacks. Here's the link:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4044431/k.j.-costello

BTW, Costello is #11 in the NCAA with that metric. If he'd had the same number as last year, he'd be #3 in the NCAA.

Thanks for the clarification. Interesting that if you look at the breakdown:

2017: Pass 41.8, Run 5.8, Sack -5.6, Penalty 3.7, Total 45.5, Plays 266, Raw QBR 81.6, Total QBR 88.1
2018: Pass 75.1, Run 0.5, Sack -16.3, Penalty 8.4, Total 67.8, Plays 517, Raw QBR 74.5, Total QBR 80.1

His "pass EPA" (expected points added) improved from 2017 to 2018, but is that adjusted for the number of plays run? If it is adjusted, then the improvement in his pass EPA follows the improvement in his pass efficiency numbers, and the difference comes from his run and (especially) his sack numbers., which might reasonably be attributable to his injury and limited mobility. If they are not adjusted for number of plays (and it looks like they are not given that "total EPA" is higher in 2018 than 2017 but raw QBR is not, then that seems a bit odd and isn't consistent with what either the raw numbers say, or my impression of the passing offense this year versus last. That doesn't mean that some of the other factors that go into QBR don't play a role (for example, issues like down and distance, controlling for what other players do, etc.) can't account for the difference, but at least my cursory glance of situational stats suggests that Costello's situational statistics follow a favorable pattern (taking more risks on third and long and while behind than on early downs or in a close game). Then there is the conversion from total EPA to raw QBR, which is not straightforward. And, unfortunately, the way ESPN calculates QBR is opaque, so there is no way to drill down to its components and figure out what is driving the apparent decline.

I don't mean to dump on QBR. Pass efficiency rating is a very flawed metric. But it is a simple enough metric to be understandable, so it is possible to understand its limitations and see when you ran into a flukey reading. QBR, based on ESPN's description, sounds like it probably represents reality better than PER, if you trust the way ESPN choices as to what is important for inclusion and what adjustments they make. But in order to generate this "better" measure, you lose transparency. So if there is a disconnect between QBR and other measures, or between QBR and the neubulous "eye test", it is harder to figure out what is driving that discrepancy.

BC

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - AthleticsDynasty - 01-02-2019

I'm very disheartened about Stanford football right now. I always thought keeping our athletes until graduation was our biggest differentiater. Maybe that was always a myth but it feels like our players are just as likely to be "3 & out" as any other school.

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - Phogge - 01-02-2019

If only they had a couple of one-and-outs playing basketball.

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - SamuelMcF - 01-02-2019

(01-02-2019, 09:43 PM)Phogge Wrote: If only they had a couple of one-and-outs playing basketball.

No one-and-out is gonna go through Stanford's admissions process only to leave a year later. I hope, but doubt, I'm wrong.

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - BostonCard - 01-02-2019

We reportedly were at least seriously considered by someone who was one and done during the Dawkins years (he went to Duke). No idea if he applied/was admitted/admissable, but Dawkins thought he might be.

BC

(01-02-2019, 10:48 PM)SamuelMcF Wrote:
(01-02-2019, 09:43 PM)Phogge Wrote: If only they had a couple of one-and-outs playing basketball.

No one-and-out is gonna go through Stanford's admissions process only to leave a year later. I hope, but doubt, I'm wrong.

Oh, and John McErnoe would like a word.

BC

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - 2006alum - 01-02-2019

(01-02-2019, 10:50 PM)BostonCard Wrote: We reportedly were at least seriously considered by someone who was one and done during the Dawkins years (he went to Duke). No idea if he applied/was admitted/admissable, but Dawkins thought he might be.

I remember our miss on Emeka Okafor to UConn when Jason Collins dilly-dallied about whether to go pro, but that was during the Monty years. Who was the Dawkins-era miss?

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - BostonCard - 01-03-2019

(01-02-2019, 11:22 PM)2006alum Wrote:
(01-02-2019, 10:50 PM)BostonCard Wrote: We reportedly were at least seriously considered by someone who was one and done during the Dawkins years (he went to Duke). No idea if he applied/was admitted/admissable, but Dawkins thought he might be.

I remember our miss on Emeka Okafor to UConn when Jason Collins dilly-dallied about whether to go pro, but that was during the Monty years. Who was the Dawkins-era miss?

Not Okafor, who during recruitment was still a bit of a project. But to be honest, I’ve forgotten the name of the recruit. Perhaps some of the hardcore recruitniks will remember.

BC

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - winflop - 01-03-2019

(01-02-2019, 06:49 PM)JJJ Wrote: Maybe Troy Clardy can chime in here, but he thought that KJ was going to stay (when he inadvertently revealed Kaden was leaving), according to this tweet.

https://twitter.com/TroyClardy/status/1079912935579824129?s=20&fbclid=IwAR1yhvxckBFMf7lgplSVFYDlgQH60nryGaFDzMh99kr-7cqcTWS_g-uMcpI

I think it's pretty clear from Troy's post-game interview with KJ that he's coming back. I think it would be a mistake for him to leave early. He's not NFL-ready.

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - troyc - 01-03-2019

(01-02-2019, 06:49 PM)JJJ Wrote: Maybe Troy Clardy can chime in here, but he thought that KJ was going to stay (when he inadvertently revealed Kaden was leaving), according to this tweet.

For KJ's exact quote, my reaction to it, and how I came to my conclusion -- which is still speculation on my part -- check out yesterday's TreeCast (link is below) and go to the 17:48 mark. Enjoy!

Troy C

TreeCast: Card Ride Off To Sunset

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - JohnR34231 - 01-03-2019

(01-01-2019, 03:53 PM)SamuelMcF Wrote:
(01-01-2019, 03:23 PM)BostonCard Wrote: So, our offensive line:
Little, Hamilton, Dalman, Powell, Sarell?

That is, if the three guys currently injured heal.

Hattis would be backing up both tackle spots, Stratford would be backing up both guard spots, and Chafin would be backing up at center. Behind that we will have true freshmen and walk-ons.

Not exactly a deep line.

BC

That implies Chaffin stays...

His mom commented on Wilson's aforementioned instagram post with the following:
tmchaffin
Much love to you Nick! You are an amazing young man and the best roommate ever! Can’t wait to see what great things are ahead of you - football never defined you and I’m glad you are finally free from the BS that was handed to you this past season! Grind and advance for your own purposes now!

Her son, I would think, would also like to be "finally free from the BS that was handed to" him...

Having been a parent I can tell you that the coaches always feed you a lot of BS about what a great player your son is..........right before they move someone else ahead of him.
(I'm talking in general, not about Stanford specifically.)

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - terry - 01-03-2019

(01-02-2019, 10:50 PM)BostonCard Wrote: We reportedly were at least seriously considered by someone who was one and done during the Dawkins years (he went to Duke). No idea if he applied/was admitted/admissable, but Dawkins thought he might be.

Maybe Corey Maggette? Though he was a Montgomery recruit, not Dawkins.

Or Jabari Parker?

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - BostonCard - 01-03-2019

Might have been Parker. Time frame (2014) is right and he was a one and done for Duke. Not sure how much traction we really had, and don’t think he applied.

BC

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - terry - 01-03-2019

(01-02-2019, 08:12 PM)AthleticsDynasty Wrote: I'm very disheartened about Stanford football right now. I always thought keeping our athletes until graduation was our biggest differentiater. Maybe that was always a myth but it feels like our players are just as likely to be "3 & out" as any other school.

We've always had three-and-out guys in baseball. The baseball program has tried to get its guys on an academic path where they can leave after three years, but still be in good shape to finish their degrees, either before they leave or afterward. It's my understanding that this has worked out pretty well and that a lot of the three-and-out guys in baseball end up graduating.

Football used to have an occasional departure after three years, like Kwame Harris and Teyo Johnson. And football has lost a few dual sport baseball/football guys after three years, like Chad Hutchinson, Joe Borchard, and Darin Naatjes. Now the three-and-out track is becoming more common, with guys like Peat, McCaffrey, Solomon Thomas, Justin Reid, and now Kaden Smith. I hope the guys who leave after three years are positioned to come back and get their degrees.

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - BostonCard - 01-03-2019

Good point terry, but unfortunately it is more like 2 1/2 and out (really 2 1/3 given that we are on the quarter system), because most guys use winter quarter to get ready for the combine/pro day. Graduating in three years with summers, even playing a sport, is doable. Graduating in 7 quarters (plus two summer quarters), when three of the seven quarters require lighter loads to play football, is not.

BC

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - terry - 01-03-2019

(01-03-2019, 01:58 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Good point terry, but unfortunately it is more like 2 1/2 and out (really 2 1/3 given that we are on the quarter system), because most guys use winter quarter to get ready for the combine/pro day. Graduating in three years with summers, even playing a sport, is doable. Graduating in 7 quarters (plus two summer quarters), when three of the seven quarters require lighter loads to play football, is not.

BC

I wasn't suggesting that three-and-out football guys can graduate before they leave. I was thinking more in terms of positioning themselves as well as possible to come back and finish their degrees later.

RE: Kaden Smith declares for the draft - BobK - 01-03-2019

It was Parker. I was there when he visited. Coaches very excited. I don’t know if accepted