The CardBoard
Baseball at SC - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Baseball at SC (/thread-17637.html)

Pages: 1 2

RE: Baseball at SC - JJJ - 05-05-2019

(05-05-2019, 05:28 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:  
(05-05-2019, 03:56 PM)JJJ Wrote:  Esquer got ejected after he prevented Handley from that fate on a called strikeout that he disagreed with. Big Bad Wulff then singled and Will the Thrill left the yard so now 4-2 (should’ve been 4-3?) and we chase the starter, T7.

I was at Dedeaux Field. The umpires certainly did not have a good game. USC's 2 runs in the 1st were abetted by several questionable calls. With USC on 2nd, Handley had the runner picked off after a strike out. The runner broke for 3rd and the ball reached the bag in plenty of time for the tag. Bellafronto caught the ball, put his glove down and the umpire called the runner safe. Esquer protested to no avail. After a walk, the USC runner on 3rd tried to steal home. Starting pitcher Miller recognized the situation when the runner was halfway to home. He whipped it to Handley who put the tag down in time as the runner slid. We waited one second, two seconds for the home plate ump to make a call. Finally, after the USC runner had separated himself from Handley's glove, the ball popped loose and the ump signaled safe.

Esquer got thrown out after Handley took a called 3rd strike on a ball just above the top of his shoes. Handley was understandably displeased. Before he could say anything that would get him in trouble, Esquer went out and escorted him back to the dugout. The ump had rabbit ears and made the mistake of reacting to something from the Stanford bench before the next batter got in the box. I heard Esquer say 3 times, "I'm not arguing balls and strikes." But the ump tossed him anyway.

Turns out the home plate umpire has a history of similar events when he was an MLB umpire - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angel_Campos

Thanks for the “on the ground” recaps. I missed the first 2 runs given up and am not sure I want to go back and watch the DVR. Did you go yesterday as well? It turns out 4-5 pitchers from ‘82-‘83 teams were there.

RE: Baseball at SC - Canalejas - 05-05-2019

UCLA dropped their series finale at ASU, keeping the Bruins one game back of Stanford in the conference standings.  

I know we have the more difficult schedule to end the regular season, but I'm still hoping we can hold on for a conference title.

RE: Baseball at SC - StanfordMatt - 05-05-2019

I was there today as well. The team just came out flat. Bellafronto’s lackadaisical tag in the first inning was representative of the entire’s club’s approach through the first 7.1 innings. Esquer’s ejection completely changed the tenor of the game. Two batters latter we had cut the deficit in half and got unlucky with a couple hard hit balls from Wilson and Handley that were outs killing rallies in the 7th and 8th innings, respectively. There’s little doubt in my mind that we would’ve completed the comeback had the game gone another two innings. We simply ran out of outs.

On the one hand, you don’t like coming out flat in any game. On the other hand, it’s bound to happen a few times over the course of the season, especially with exams coming up next week. I liked seeing the fire the club showed at the end. That’s the energy they’ll need to carry them to Omaha.

As far as the umpires, the home plate umpire’s biggest blown call in my opinion was not calling interference on USC’s second hitter in the first inning. After Miller struck him out, he stepped over the plate and restricted Handley’s ability to throw out the leadoff runner attempting to steal second. If he had gotten that call correct, there never would have been an issue with Bellafronto’s tag at 3rd or Handley’s at home.

RE: Baseball at SC - CTcard - 05-06-2019

(05-05-2019, 10:45 PM)StanfordMatt Wrote:  I was there today as well. The team just came out flat. Bellafronto’s lackadaisical tag in the first inning was representative of the entire’s club’s approach through the first 7.1 innings.

Stanford was a little sloppy, but part of the flat was a very good performance from the $C pitcher Hurt. He seems to be the classic pitching prospect with great stuff but trouble controlling it. He came into the game with a 6+ ERA and an 0-6 record but had a perfect game into the sixth, and though started losing it in the seventh still gave up only 3 hits, 2 runs, 0 walks. It may have been a one-off, but he was good on Sunday.

Quote:As far as the umpires, the home plate umpire’s biggest blown call in my opinion was not calling interference on USC’s second hitter in the first inning. After Miller struck him out, he stepped over the plate and restricted Handley’s ability to throw out the leadoff runner attempting to steal second.

Yep, the announcers very strangely stated that the batter wasn't called for interference because the momentum of his swing took him over the plate into the throwing path and it therefore was not intentional. While I haven't read the NCAA rules on the matter, I have never heard of batters interference depending upon it being intentional or not.

RE: Baseball at SC - StanfordMatt - 05-06-2019

Stanford remains #2 in today’s poll from D1Baseball and drops to #3 per Baseball America. Meanwhile, our RPI has plummeted all the way down to #22 and our SOS is #92. There’s already some chatter in Kendall Rogers’ twitter feed about why we’re still ranked #2. Looking forward to seeing what both sites have to say in their respective chats later this afternoon. Our seeding could pose a very difficult situation for the committee.

RE: Baseball at SC - OutsiderFan - 05-06-2019

Don't look now, but Cal has won 16 of its last 20 games. They haven't won a series against any Top 4 team in the Pac-12 or any good OOC team, but they did take one game from UCLA and OSU. They will be looking to win their first series against a good team at home against Stanford, and then get another shot the following week at home against ASU.

RE: Baseball at SC - CTcard - 05-06-2019

(05-06-2019, 07:19 AM)StanfordMatt Wrote:  Stanford remains #2 in today’s poll from D1Baseball and drops to #3 per Baseball America. Meanwhile, our RPI has plummeted all the way down to #22 and our SOS is #92. There’s already some chatter in Kendall Rogers’ twitter feed about why we’re still ranked #2. Looking forward to seeing what both sites have to say in their respective chats later this afternoon. Our seeding could pose a very difficult situation for the committee.

How difficult the situation will be for the committee depends upon the degree they insist on following the RPI. Over the years, there have been times the selection committee seemed to be moving away from giving RPI much weight and others where they have seemed ridiculously tied to it, such that I don't think there is any discernible trend.

Beyond the base fact that the RPI is not a very good power rating for anyone, there is also a mathematical issue for west coast teams. This is not because they are on the west coast, but because there are fewer teams overall in the west and there still is relatively little inter-regional play in NCAA baseball despite many games on the schedule. Thus, roughly speaking everybody on the west coast plays everybody else (or a good fraction thereof). This tends to drive the 50% of the RPI that is opponents' win-loss record towards 0.500, and even moreso the 25% that is opponents' opponents' win-loss record. That in turn, tends to prop up weaker teams and lower better teams - i.e. it evens out RPI values.

There are several power ratings that lessen this issue by improving the overall connectedness. Boyd's ISR is one I have been partial to (though I admit I don't know the inner workings of his algorithm). That system currently has Stanford at #3 behind UCLA and Vandy, along with a #32 strength of schedule.

Human rankings tend to have a different problem. The two biggest are a tendency to over-rank name programs and paying too much attention to loss count and not enough to strength of schedule. Those tendencies might overly favour Stanford, so it could be our general 2-3 rank in the human polls is a touch high.

Putting it all together, I would say that if the season were to end today, it would be an outrage if Stanford were not a top 8 national seed. But there is substantial work still to do to stay there as our remaining schedule includes the #1(tie), #4 and #5 teams in the Pac 12 standings.
The midweek games we have left are vs. Santa Clara (11-34), Cal Poly (22-22), and UOP (21-22) - and thus much of the reason Boyd says it won't be possible to get our RPI into the top 8 even by winning out.

RE: Baseball at SC - Hulk01 - 05-06-2019

Stanford's RPI is a massive outlier.
There are ten "systems" that rank college baseball teams:
They have us at 3, 3, 4. 4. 4. 5, 5. 5, 8--and 22, our RPI.

The voters: 2, 3, 3, 3, and 4, with the Writers not yet announced.

ASU, 14-10 in Pac 12 and 19-2 overall outside the conference, ranks 43rd in RPI
Kentucky, 6-18 in SEC and 17-6 outside, ranks 42d.

To highlight this further, record vs. top 50 teams
Kentucky: 8-24
Arizona State: 18-9.

It goes on.
Kentucky has been swept by Texas Tech (outscored 15-36), LSU (7-25), A&M (11-31), and Tennessee (5-28).
Average score in those twelve games: 
3.2-9.2.

RE: Baseball at SC - Phogge - 05-06-2019

If you are good enough you can win anywhere. Just win baby.

RE: Baseball at SC - StanfordMatt - 05-06-2019

Reviewing today's chats, one interesting thing that stood out to me is that ASU apparently isn't even a lock to make the tournament.

From https://d1baseball.com/chats/d1baseball-weekly-chat-may-6/:

Freddie: Every couple years it seems like the committee decides to make an example of a team with a poor non-conference Strength of Schedule. Are there any candidates to watch on the at large or hosting bubble that may regret their scheduling choices on Selection Monday?

Kendall Rogers: Freddie — The team to watch in that regard if they are on the bubble come Selection Monday could be Arizona State. Say the Sun Devils split their final two weekend series. The RPI would be around 45-50 with a good league record. However, ASU’s Non-Conference SOS is an abysmal 200. The committee might not have much mercy on them, but we’ll see. FSU’s non-conference SOS is awful as well.

RE: Baseball at SC - 76lsjumb - 05-06-2019

(05-06-2019, 03:07 PM)Phogge Wrote:  If you are good enough you can win anywhere. Just win baby.

Stanford is currently 18-6 (.750) at home and 16-2 (.889) away from home.  As much as it would be great to be able to see a super-regional at Sunken Diamond, well...