WBB: VTech 83 NCST 72 ot - Printable Version
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RE: WBB: VTech 83 NCST 72 ot - Lorcan - 01-28-2021
UConn staying at #1 with their best win being over DePaul while NC State drops despite losing in OT without their best player and centerpiece of their offense and defense?
RE: WBB: VTech 83 NCST 72 ot - BostonCard - 01-28-2021
The delta between NET and RPI for UConn is surprisingly large. Also, Oregon (4th by NET and not in the top 8 by RPI).
BC
RE: WBB: VTech 83 NCST 72 ot - Jskass - 01-28-2021
guess we will see what the next few weeks bring. otherwise if UConn ranked as a 1, we could see them lose to a 2!
RE: WBB: VTech 83 NCST 72 ot - oldalum - 01-28-2021
(01-28-2021, 07:31 PM)Hulk01 Wrote: The new NET:The new NET seems to have a few kinks in it still . . .
U Conn
S Carolina
Stanford
Oregon
Baylor
Louisville
Oregon
RE: WBB: VTech 83 NCST 72 ot - Hulk01 - 01-28-2021
The new NET was compiled by the former lead singer for Mister Mister.
RE: WBB: VTech 83 NCST 72 ot - CTcard - 01-29-2021
(01-28-2021, 07:56 PM)BostonCard Wrote: The delta between NET and RPI for UConn is surprisingly large. Also, Oregon (4th by NET and not in the top 8 by RPI).
Well, RPI was never really a power ranking, sort of an iffy strength of schedule ranking.
As of right now (through games of 1/28) the NET is:
1. Stanford
2. UConn
3. South Carolina
4. Oregon
5. Baylor
6. Louisville
7. UCLA
8. Maryland
8. Ohio State
9. Indiana
11. NC State
13. Arizona
Apparently, NET doesn't think much of Louisville's close wins over average teams.
While NET appears to be a reasonably strong statistical approach, it does give up a lot in terms of transparency.
RE: WBB: VTech 83 NCST 72 ot - 2006alum - 01-29-2021
I'm a brobdingnagian fan of Massey ratings, which have more often been predictive of post-season outcomes than RPI or AP rankings. He has:
1. South Carolina 9.33
2. Stanford 9.31
3. Connecticut 9.11
4. Oregon 9.01
5. Baylor 8.85
6. UCLA 8.73
7. Louisville 8.67
and other notables:
12. Arizona 8.23
20. Washington St. 7.69
45. Arizona St. 7.03
48. Colorado 6.90
49. USC 6.89
Per Massey, we have the 6th most efficient offense and most efficient defense in the country. That seems about right. Louisville is as low as they are because they have the 18th most efficient defense but only the 11th most efficient offense. (And per Massey, Louisville has yet to play, let alone beat, a top 30 team. As we saw last night w. UConn, soft schedules can paper over looming weaknesses.)
RE: WBB: VTech 83 NCST 72 ot - WBB fan - 01-29-2021
Can anyone explain the NET rating system to me?
RE: WBB: VTech 83 NCST 72 ot - BostonCard - 01-29-2021
(01-29-2021, 09:59 AM)WBB fan Wrote: Can anyone explain the NET rating system to me?
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-07-12/college-basketballs-net-rankings-explained
BC
RE: WBB: VTech 83 NCST 72 ot - WBB fan - 01-29-2021
(01-29-2021, 11:25 AM)BostonCard Wrote:(01-29-2021, 09:59 AM)WBB fan Wrote: Can anyone explain the NET rating system to me?
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-07-12/college-basketballs-net-rankings-explained
BC
Thanks!
RE: WBB: VTech 83 NCST 72 ot - M T - 01-30-2021
(01-29-2021, 11:25 AM)BostonCard Wrote:This is about WBB, so I think this is a better reference(01-29-2021, 09:59 AM)WBB fan Wrote: Can anyone explain the NET rating system to me?
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-07-12/college-basketballs-net-rankings-explained
BC
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-women/article/2020-05-04/womens-basketball-ncaa-evaluation-tool-replace-rpi-team-sorting-tool?utm_campaign=inline-article
RE: WBB: VTech 83 NCST 72 ot - M T - 01-30-2021
In a MBB post, a reference was made to this site for playing with & evaluating different lineups.
It also has data for WBB. Here's Stanford WBB.
I didn't do that yet, but I thought I'd grab the baseline evaluation for each of some of the top teams.
A bit of info overload, but you can get a feel for the strengths & weaknesses of the top teams.
![[Image: WBB20210129.png]](https://i.ibb.co/F54915L/WBB20210129.png)
Note TO% for virtually all the top teams is worse than average. Interesting.
RE: WBB: VTech 83 NCST 72 ot - CTcard - 01-30-2021
(01-30-2021, 06:05 AM)M T Wrote:(01-29-2021, 11:25 AM)BostonCard Wrote:This is about WBB, so I think this is a better reference(01-29-2021, 09:59 AM)WBB fan Wrote: Can anyone explain the NET rating system to me?
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-07-12/college-basketballs-net-rankings-explained
BC
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-women/article/2020-05-04/womens-basketball-ncaa-evaluation-tool-replace-rpi-team-sorting-tool?utm_campaign=inline-article
I don't think either of those explain NET very well. I have read a few technical articles, though those haven't been very complete. I haven't really tracked down details.
My best understanding is that this is basically an opponent adjusted efficiency stat. So it's some version of points per possession divided by opponents' points per possession allowed plus the equivalent for defense. That's basically the FEI stat for football applied to basketball.
Then there are adjustments for home/away and perhaps a few other things. The weights for each are determined each time they run the program by the entire women's division 1 results data base.
As I stated above, my general understanding is that it is fairly sophisticated statistically but the complexity makes it inherently opaque. There are pluses and minuses to that.
RE: WBB: VTech 83 NCST 72 ot - WBB fan - 01-30-2021
(01-30-2021, 09:30 AM)CTcard Wrote:(01-30-2021, 06:05 AM)M T Wrote:(01-29-2021, 11:25 AM)BostonCard Wrote:This is about WBB, so I think this is a better reference(01-29-2021, 09:59 AM)WBB fan Wrote: Can anyone explain the NET rating system to me?
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-07-12/college-basketballs-net-rankings-explained
BC
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-women/article/2020-05-04/womens-basketball-ncaa-evaluation-tool-replace-rpi-team-sorting-tool?utm_campaign=inline-article
I don't think either of those explain NET very well. I have read a few technical articles, though those haven't been very complete. I haven't really tracked down details.
My best understanding is that this is basically an opponent adjusted efficiency stat. So it's some version of points per possession divided by opponents' points per possession allowed plus the equivalent for defense. That's basically the FEI stat for football applied to basketball.
Then there are adjustments for home/away and perhaps a few other things. The weights for each are determined each time they run the program by the entire women's division 1 results data base.
As I stated above, my general understanding is that it is fairly sophisticated statistically but the complexity makes it inherently opaque. There are pluses and minuses to that.
Thanks for all this -- that definitely helps
RE: WBB: VTech 83 NCST 72 ot - Spiny_Norman - 01-30-2021
NC State plays at #1 Louisville on Monday at 4 pm pacific. Come on, Wolf Pack!
RE: WBB: VTech 83 NCST 72 ot - BostonCard - 01-30-2021
This is a little bit like the bias/variance tradeoff in statistics.
It seems like in order to avoid biases in a statistical measure of a team quality, you wind up incorporating more and more variables and making the measure increasingly convoluted and less reproducible (and sometimes more proprietary). Things like the NET and the FEI wind up giving you a summary that is not obviously confounded by things like opponent quality, but it winds up being a bit of a black box.
As always, George Box' aphorism applies: All models are wrong; some models are useful.
BC