Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament

Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - Printable Version

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RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-07-2021

Power Five conference records in first round of NCAA tournament:

Pac-12: 5-0
ACC: 8-1
SEC: 8-5
Big Ten: 3-0
Big 12: 4-2

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - Spiny_Norman - 05-08-2021

Link to today's match vs. Pepperdine - https://pepperdinewaves.com/sports/2018/8/7/playsight.aspx

#1 doubles is down 5-2. #2 and #3 are both up a break at 4-2.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-08-2021

And it’s 1-0 Stanford after doubles! That’s brobdingnagian against such an excellent singles team.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - Hulk01 - 05-08-2021

Stanford with three service breaks early in the singles.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - Lorcan - 05-08-2021

Higuchi and Gordon leading the way so far—Choy breaks back to 5-5 in the first. It’s been close, got to find three points somewhere.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - Lorcan - 05-08-2021

Regardless of what happens here in the third sets for Gordon and Blake, and Choy battling through the second, you absolutely have to love that Emma Higuchi is doing her thing on Court 6. I'll miss her presence on that court after this year.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - PVTree - 05-08-2021

Stanford needs to hold on in courts 5 and 6, and either Gordon or Blake win the third set on courts 1 and 2.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - BostonCard - 05-08-2021

Emma Higuchi ties it up.

We won the doubles point. Pepperdine took #3 6-4, 6-1 over Arbuthnott and #4 6-1, 7-5 over Geller. Higuchi won 6-2, 6-2 to tie it up.

It all comes down to Gordon at #1 (up 2-0 in the third), Blake at #2 (down 2-1 in the third), and Choy at #5, up 7-5, 2-1.

BC

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - Lorcan - 05-08-2021

Gordon saves a massive quadruple break point at 2-2 in the third to go up 3-2 on serve. Choy went up 3-1 in the second, but gave the break right back, and is all square at 3-3 in the second.

It's starting to slip away, Blake is down 5-2, and Gordon gets broken on a deciding point as Lahey takes a 4-3 lead. I have to say, feels like Pepperdine has a lot more energy out there.

Game, set, and match, Pepperdine as Gordon falls 6-4 in the third after Blake fell 6-3. Sara Choy had just started her third set. Congrats to Pepperdine.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - PVTree - 05-08-2021

Sad ending, but not unexpected with this team.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-10-2021

OK, so, that was a bummer. We weren't going to win a national championship this year, but I still felt we were a Top 10 team, talent-wise (and UTR agrees with me, as we were something like the 8th-ranked team in terms of team UTR in the NCAA field). And a top 10 team ought to be in the final 16. I don't care what sport it is, it's just hard to beat the #5 team on their home courts.

* I'm so proud of Emma Higuchi, you guys. I didn't think she'd play much at all this year, given how it looked like she'd be leapfrogged by the freshmen, but not only did she stay in the lineup, she held it down. Just a terrific result yesterday.

* Ashley Lahey was the preseason #1 player for a reason, and if you're frustrated at Michaela Gordon for falling short against her, please don't be. Gordon matched her shot for shot until the very end, and it was a worthy heavyweight bout.

* Same goes for Angelica Blake. She played a top-20 player on her home courts and she forced a third set before falling short. I had chalked this match up as a near-certain loss, and Blake made it a match. That bodes well for the future.

* Sara Choy, again, fought tooth and nail against Pepperdine. She's got grit, and I'm glad she's on our team.

* It's Emily Arbuthnott who warrants some of that scrutiny. Playing down a line from last time, giving her a better chance to win than last time, she basically didn't show up. Just a nightmare finish to her career.

* Geller lost and I figured she'd lose, as Fukuda was a longtime #1 for a good team in Ohio State before spending this year as a grad transfer and making Pepperdine into something of a superteam. And she showed good fight in that second set, even though she couldn't force a third.

All in all, Pepperdine is a more talented team than we are, and we still nearly beat them on their home courts. I gave Pepperdine a clear edge at 2 and 4, a solid edge at 1, and a toss-up/Stanford lean on 3, 5, and 6 (at least, based on talent--Arbuthnott's form this year turned that court from a solid Stanford edge to a toss-up). We needed everything to go right for us, and it very nearly did. For a brief moment there, it was easy to see us getting a third point from Gordon and the clincher from Choy, but it wasn't to be.

So, thus concludes what has to be seen, results-wise, as the worst season in Stanford women's tennis history. It was the first time Stanford wasn't seeded in the postseason, the first time they didn't host the first two rounds, and the first time they didn't make the sweet 16. (To rub salt in the wound, UCLA, Cal, and USC all advanced, with USC pulling the upset to get there.)

Next is NCAA singles/doubles in a couple of weeks. I'm curious to see whether Gordon expresses an intent to return or whether she'll move on after graduating. With Shin plummeting to the bottom of the lineup, while Shin could technically come back for a fifth scholarship year due to covid, I'd be surprised if she did if she weren't going to play. (And with the firepower coming in, she's not going to play.)

I'll do a full preview for next year once we have a better sense of what the roster will look like, but here's what the roster could look like:

Fifth year: Gordon
Seniors: Choy and Madurawe
Juniors: Blake and Mossmer (maybe, if she doesn't medically retire)
Sophomores: Geller and Houghton
Freshmen: Connie Ma and Alexandra Yepifanova (and also maybe Valencia Xu, who is still showing as committed to Stanford even though she hasn't signed a NLI, presumably because we'd be at our scholarship max without her)

If Gordon returns, I don't know how Lele sorts out that lineup. She and Blake play, obviously. Geller plays. You can't leave out Ma and Yepifanova--they're the two best seniors in the country! Do you really leave off Houghton or Choy? This is where the fall season will be invaluable, getting good-quality tournament matches to see what our pecking order is.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - TheFarm07 - 05-10-2021

Thanks ColoradoTree! I guess women's tennis joined women's volleyball and women's soccer as having (for the programs' lofty standards), pretty bad years in this COVID-afflicted year. I guess we've been spoiled about the success and consistency of all of these programs when not being seeded, hosting and losing before the Rd of 16 counts as our worst season for the women's tennis team.

It seems that in the last part of your analysis looking ahead to next year, that (correct me if I am making too big of an assumption), that the "problem" Lele will have of slotting in Houghton or Choy will mean that the incredible depth we enjoyed during our NCAA title runs these last few years is back (in a good way) and we would be a favorite to get back to our high standards and make another deep run next season?

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - BobK - 05-10-2021

Big thanks Colorado Tree for all your posts

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - oldalum - 05-10-2021

(05-10-2021, 11:55 AM)TheFarm07 Wrote: women's tennis joined women's volleyball and women's soccer as having (for the programs' lofty standards), pretty bad years

I'm going to seize this opportunity to take a brief self-congratulatory lap (but no joy) for my preseason prediction that this would be a rebuilding year for all 3! :)

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-12-2021

(05-10-2021, 11:55 AM)TheFarm07 Wrote: Thanks ColoradoTree! I guess women's tennis joined women's volleyball and women's soccer as having (for the programs' lofty standards), pretty bad years in this COVID-afflicted year. I guess we've been spoiled about the success and consistency of all of these programs when not being seeded, hosting and losing before the Rd of 16 counts as our worst season for the women's tennis team.

It seems that in the last part of your analysis looking ahead to next year, that (correct me if I am making too big of an assumption), that the "problem" Lele will have of slotting in Houghton or Choy will mean that the incredible depth we enjoyed during our NCAA title runs these last few years is back (in a good way) and we would be a favorite to get back to our high standards and make another deep run next season?

Absolutely. I expect us to have a championship-caliber team next season--e.g., a top 5 type team that should absolutely be good enough for a deep NCAA run.

Now, losing Gordon will certainly be painful (if she doesn't come back). But Blake is progressing nicely and could be a plausible #1. Part of it is that two and three years ago, when we had Arbuthnott at 4 and Shin at 5, they played the best tennis of their college careers. They've both regressed since then, and it's coincided with Arbuthnott climbing in our lineup rather than falling. Both of those players will now be gone and replaced by (I am presuming) more reliable players.

The way I think of it is that we've had a clear-cut #1 for the last four years in Gordon, even though she hasn't been a dominant force like some past #1s we've had. But whereas we used to have a couple of #2s (Lord and Lampl) and #3s (Arbuthnott, Shin), last year we had a couple of #3s (Blake, Arbuthnott), a #5 (Choy), and a bunch of sixes. I'm optimistic that Blake and Choy seem to be getting better and better, and I hope that with a full year of relatively normal preparation, we see even better versions of Geller and Houghton, too.

But the main reason for my optimism is the freshmen that are coming in. While we always get a couple of blue chip players, we rarely get two of this caliber. By looking at the Tennis Recruiting Network "top" ranking (meaning, the highest that player climbed in a particular year), here's how our past several classes shook out each year of high school (Fr/So/Jr/Sr):

2020: Can't say for Ana Geller since she's international, but Houghton was 43/20/3/2.
2019: Blake (8/8/7/6) and Mossmer (4/3/12/9)
2018: Choy (8/4/6/10) and Madurawe (39/47/12/6)
2017: Gordon (3/4/3/1) and Shin (33/14/8/8)
2016: Can't say for Arbuthnott, but Higuchi was (2/3/3/4)
2015: Lampl (15/14/6/7), Lord (7/7/4/2), and Yee (2/1/1/7)

(You want to talk about disappointments, if you'd have told me Yee could only occasionally crack the singles lineup in her time here, I'd have been blown away.)

Next year's freshmen? Connie Ma (1/1/1/1), Alexandra Yepifanova (3/2/1/1), and Valencia Xu (4/3/3/8). Gordon's the only recent recruit who even comes close to that level, and she played #1 from the jump (I remain of the view that Lord would've started at #1 that year if she'd been healthy, but that's neither here nor there). You don't often see a player be the no-doubt best player of her class each year of high school. Think of some of the great players we've had in the past decade-plus: Nicole Gibbs (5/1/2/1); Kristie Ahn (5/1/1/5); Hilary Barte (7/7/1/1). Krista Hardebeck had a great career but not quite at the level her lofty recruiting rankings might have suggested: 3/1/1/1. Anyway, no guarantees in how a player develops, but not only will Ma and Yepifanova play right away, it wouldn't shock me if they both played in the top 3 and both had success right away.

So, with all of that said, I think our lineup next year is more like those championship teams--a really good player at #1 but not someone who is going to crush folks week in and week out, but a lineup where we feel really good about getting four wins out of the 2-6 spots. Here's one thought:

1. Blake
2. Ma
3. Yepifanova
4. Geller
5. Choy
6. Houghton

And if Gordon comes back?

1. Gordon
2. Ma
3. Blake
4. Yepifanova
5. Geller
6. Choy

That lineup is nasty.

One thing that I think will be really helpful for Stanford's NCAA prospects next season is the improvement of the Pac-12. Cal is back where they should be. UCLA is excellent and will remain so for the foreseeable future (though I like our chances next year with them losing Hart, Wolff, Altick, and Goulak, and I like our incoming freshmen better than theirs, though they have some good ones). USC has a ton of talent that might be rounding into form. ASU and Oregon are both dangerous (Oregon's three best players were true freshmen this year, so they're not going away, either). Even Arizona--a conference doormat for years--showed real strides this year.

That overall improvement isn't just good for our rankings (more valuable wins and less-damaging losses), but for our development and improvement as a team over the course of the season. Winning the conference will be very hard, but that's all to the good when it comes to what matters.

P.S. We don't have UTR data going back years, but the UTRs for Ma and Yepifanova are well ahead of everyone else in the senior class.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - Spiny_Norman - 05-12-2021

CT, my most sincere thank you to you for all of your reporting and analysis of women's tennis. I hope you know how much the CardBoard community appreciates your work. I do miss watching and cheering for this team deep into the NCAA tournament as we have done recently since Lampl and Lord's freshman year. So many heros, so many highlights. We now close the book on that era. Time to start a new one.

There is still the great unknown for 2022 - transfers. They change the dynamic in every other sport. No reason to think that W Tennis will be immune. Stanford will not be affected, but teams that lose a lot after this season could quickly reload via the transfer portal.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - TheFarm07 - 05-12-2021

ColoradoTree, thank you for the thorough analysis. I always appreciate the time and effort you put into updating all of us and this last one was no different.

I am looking forward to a bounceback season next year and as always, your detailed posts

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-12-2021

(05-12-2021, 02:12 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: CT, my most sincere thank you to you for all of your reporting and analysis of women's tennis. I hope you know how much the CardBoard community appreciates your work. I do miss watching and cheering for this team deep into the NCAA tournament as we have done recently since Lampl and Lord's freshman year. So many heros, so many highlights. We now close the book on that era. Time to start a new one.

There is still the great unknown for 2022 - transfers. They change the dynamic in every other sport. No reason to think that W Tennis will be immune. Stanford will not be affected, but teams that lose a lot after this season could quickly reload via the transfer portal.

Really appreciate that, Spiny. I've just always felt that a team this successful, year in and year out, deserves a little more of a spotlight, so I'm happy to do it.

And agreed on transfers. A big part of why UCLA is as deep as it is this year is that it got Annette Goulak from UGA before last season and Vivian Wolff (also from UGA) before this season. USC benefitted from having Clare McKee this year (from Princeton), Summer Dvorak (you'll remember her from Vanderbilt, but she spent the covid-shortened season last year at Duke)

So far, we haven't seen too much noise in the transfer "market" in women's tennis, but most relevant to us is that Pepperdine's Astrid Olsen (a sophomore who played some at #6 this year) is transferring to Washington. Purdue's #1 this year and Illinois's #1 last year (redshirted this year) will both be grad transfers at LSU, but they'll be back of the lineup players at LSU. But expect a flurry of activity in the next few weeks.

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - BobK - 05-12-2021

Awesome posts CT. Such a great read each time. Thank you

RE: Women's Tennis: NCAA Tournament - ColoradoTree - 05-12-2021

Thanks, Bob!

Just to follow up on the increased strength in the Pac-12, here's where the Pac-12 sat in the national recruiting rankings the past few years:

Currently: Stanford #1, UCLA #4, ASU #5 (!), USC #20, Cal #32, Arizona #37
Last year: Cal #3 (that's due to Jada Bui and Hannah Viller Moeller), Stanford #7 (Geller and Houghton), USC #8, Washington #20, UCLA #27, WSU #42 (frankly, the rankings missed big on Oregon--that freshman core they have is pretty good)
2019: UCLA #2 (Forbes, Vagramov), USC #7 (Cayetano), Stanford #9 (Blake and Mossmer), Cal #36 (this is laughably low, with Giavara and Ivanov that year), Colorado #40
2018: UCLA #1 (Bolton, Johnson), USC #4 (Ewing, Jaeger, Willson), Stanford #9 (Choy and Madurawe), UW #17, ASU #21, Oregon #30, Arizona #31, Utah #39

(ASU got a couple big international names this year, one from Croatia and one from Latvia.)