2021 Utah vs Stanford Predictions Thread

2021 Utah vs Stanford Predictions Thread - Printable Version

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RE: 2021 Utah vs Stanford Predictions Thread - Austroturf - 11-05-2021

(11-04-2021, 05:43 PM)CardinalSagehen Wrote:
(11-04-2021, 02:11 PM)george Wrote:
(11-04-2021, 02:48 AM)Austroturf Wrote: On another note, as I write this post, there are fully 7 out of 16 Cardboard members predicting a Cardinal victory tomorrow. Is this pure homerism, or do the 7 of you know something the rest of us are ignorant of?

(11-04-2021, 08:24 AM)Papa John Wrote:
Some of us vote with our hearts, not our brains.

Definitely put me in the "vote with our hearts camp". Interestingly, an early version of the rules proposed that participants should be penalized -10 points for picking against Stanford. But actually, if we care about declaring the person who makes the most accurate predictions the winner, we may need to build in a bulwark against our proclivity for picking the Cardinal even in the face of strong data suggesting they don't have a chance.

Don't want to change the rules mid-season, but next year, we should probably place a larger premium on getting the winning team right. It won't prevent me from picking our beloved squad to win, but I don't think that I should be in 7th place having picked the wrong winner in 5 out of 8 games.

I'm voting with my heart, too. And I expect to fall way down the list this week, because Utah is good at everything we're not.

At the same time, the current spread on this board (Utah -10) is even more pessimistic than the Vegas spread (Utah -7.5). If you take out the blatant homers like Papa John, george, and me, the CARDboard spread would probably be something like -17 points.

I ask - is it possible we're predicting irrationally and emotionally not just for our team, but against our team?

I'm -17 in my mind, but I'm +1 in my heart.

Stanford 28, Utah 27.

I sure hope you are right. Nothing I would like to see more. But our current line play makes me a total pessimist regarding our offense (can we even get to 28 points without at least three or more take-aways with the attendant short fields and potentially a pick six?). And while the defense has had a few bright moments, the line is also porous, and our backfield is often burned. Still, holding Utah to 27 points is more reasonable than Stanford scoring 28. Since I can still want Stanford to win "in my heart", but don't see the cold, hard data supporting such an outcome, I pick with my reason, then "root" the other way.

RE: 2021 Utah vs Stanford Predictions Thread - JohnR34231 - 11-05-2021

(11-05-2021, 03:35 AM)Austroturf Wrote:
(11-04-2021, 05:43 PM)CardinalSagehen Wrote:
(11-04-2021, 02:11 PM)george Wrote:
(11-04-2021, 02:48 AM)Austroturf Wrote: On another note, as I write this post, there are fully 7 out of 16 Cardboard members predicting a Cardinal victory tomorrow. Is this pure homerism, or do the 7 of you know something the rest of us are ignorant of?

(11-04-2021, 08:24 AM)Papa John Wrote:
Some of us vote with our hearts, not our brains.

Definitely put me in the "vote with our hearts camp". Interestingly, an early version of the rules proposed that participants should be penalized -10 points for picking against Stanford. But actually, if we care about declaring the person who makes the most accurate predictions the winner, we may need to build in a bulwark against our proclivity for picking the Cardinal even in the face of strong data suggesting they don't have a chance.

Don't want to change the rules mid-season, but next year, we should probably place a larger premium on getting the winning team right. It won't prevent me from picking our beloved squad to win, but I don't think that I should be in 7th place having picked the wrong winner in 5 out of 8 games.

I'm voting with my heart, too. And I expect to fall way down the list this week, because Utah is good at everything we're not.

At the same time, the current spread on this board (Utah -10) is even more pessimistic than the Vegas spread (Utah -7.5). If you take out the blatant homers like Papa John, george, and me, the CARDboard spread would probably be something like -17 points.

I ask - is it possible we're predicting irrationally and emotionally not just for our team, but against our team?

I'm -17 in my mind, but I'm +1 in my heart.

Stanford 28, Utah 27.

I sure hope you are right. Nothing I would like to see more. But our current line play makes me a total pessimist regarding our offense (can we even get to 28 points without at least three or more take-aways with the attendant short fields and potentially a pick six?). And while the defense has had a few bright moments, the line is also porous, and our backfield is often burned. Still, holding Utah to 27 points is more reasonable than Stanford scoring 28. Since I can still want Stanford to win "in my heart", but don't see the cold, hard data supporting such an outcome, I pick with my reason, then "root" the other way.

I think we can win this game if we have an exceptionally good evening and Utah has an exceptionally bad one. While the chances of that happening aren't real high, they aren't zero either.

RE: 2021 Utah vs Stanford Predictions Thread - OutsiderFan - 11-05-2021

Utah is always a terrible match-up for Stanford because Utah always has 25 year olds playing in the trenches, and Stanford doesn't usually have difference making athletes on offense. You need big plays to beat Utah because when they have a rare defensive breakdown, you need to make them pay with big plays. Stanford's grind it out offense has no trench advantage over Utah, and its skill players are not big play threats in part because they aren't dominant athletes, and in part because Stanford doesn't scheme big plays very often or particularly well.

RE: 2021 Utah vs Stanford Predictions Thread - gailtate - 11-05-2021

(11-05-2021, 05:37 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Utah is always a terrible match-up for Stanford because Utah always has 25 year olds playing in the trenches, and Stanford doesn't usually have difference making athletes on offense. You need big plays to beat Utah because when they have a rare defensive breakdown, you need to make them pay with big plays. Stanford's grind it out offense has no trench advantage over Utah, and its skill players are not big play threats in part because they aren't dominant athletes, and in part because Stanford doesn't scheme big plays very often or particularly well.

Perfect description of this year's team. And, barring a jaw-dropping reversal in form, next year's.

RE: 2021 Utah vs Stanford Predictions Thread - 82lsju - 11-05-2021

(11-04-2021, 02:48 AM)Austroturf Wrote: On another note, as I write this post, there are fully 7 out of 16 Cardboard members predicting a Cardinal victory tomorrow. Is this pure homerism, or do the 7 of you know something the rest of us are ignorant of? I sure hope Stanford wins. It would be a great upset and set the tenor for the rest of the season (maybe even put us back into bowl contention). But there is no objective data supporting that outcome.

Apart from "miracles happen" (thunder_chik), are there any other observations from the folks predicting a W for Stanford?

I'm one of those seven, given there is no real reward for picking against Stanford I always pick us to win even if I think it doubtful we win (like the Oregon game), if I decide not to pick us to win I won't make a prediction...

RE: 2021 Utah vs Stanford Predictions Thread - Austroturf - 11-05-2021

(11-05-2021, 08:45 AM)82lsju Wrote:
(11-04-2021, 02:48 AM)Austroturf Wrote: On another note, as I write this post, there are fully 7 out of 16 Cardboard members predicting a Cardinal victory tomorrow. Is this pure homerism, or do the 7 of you know something the rest of us are ignorant of? I sure hope Stanford wins. It would be a great upset and set the tenor for the rest of the season (maybe even put us back into bowl contention). But there is no objective data supporting that outcome.

Apart from "miracles happen" (thunder_chik), are there any other observations from the folks predicting a W for Stanford?

I'm one of those seven, given there is no real reward for picking against Stanford I always pick us to win even if I think it doubtful we win (like the Oregon game), if I decide not to pick us to win I won't make a prediction...

Hmmm, I thought the penalty for picking against Stanford had been removed. George? Your wise counsel is required.

RE: 2021 Utah vs Stanford Predictions Thread - Snorlax94 - 11-05-2021

OK, so my prediction is Utah blows up Stanford 31-16, and that's with Stanford scoring some late points to make things "closer."

But since Astroturf (?) asked, "does someone have some reason for thinking Stanford could win?"

I think yes, Stanford could win. It wouldn't be a miracle. It wouldn't require Utah to lay an egg.

Watching a little bit of Utah tape, this isn't your typical Utah team. The typical Stanford-Utah nightmare comes down to Stanford -- reliant on its big offensive line and predictable running game -- runs into a ridiculously massive Utah front 7 that absolutely stuns the O-line that has been opening gaping holes all season --and suddenly, they're unable to open any holes, and the system they rely upon isn't working. Well, this isn't your typical Stanford team and this isn't your typical Utah team.

From what I saw, this year's Utah squad was much smaller than their typical ones. I didn't see the typical Stanford kryptonites -- I don't see a massive D line, I don't see massive linebackers, I don't see a mobile quarterback and I don't see a small, dart-like running back or a speedy bruiser running back.

I see a quality squad from top to bottom, well-coached, playing well together, with pretty good balance, and players who play hard.

That's a tough opponent, and it's no wonder they're in the driver's seat to be the Pac 12 south champs.

But it's beatable.

Going into this game, Stanford is going to get a *lot* of players back. It's absolutely miserable trying to run an offense with 1 threat -- Yurocek. But add Michael Wilson, and maybe Humphreys, and it's a totally different. What an offense really needs to keep a defense off balance is *multiple* threats. It doesn't matter how great your tight end is, the defense can just key on him. With enough targets, the offense can be more like the one against Oregon than the one we've seen the last two weeks. If there are multiple receiving dangers, it could also take pressure off the running game, which who knows, maybe could even rush for more then 50 yards.

The biggest question mark is quarterback, and this will probably be disaster and doom. We are sending someone with little to no starting experience at Stanford against one of the Pac 12's premiere defenses. SO yeah, I did say it's most likely Stanford loses by a lot. But you know, maybe the next man up steps up. And I have **long suspected** Isaiah Sanders has a **LOT MORE** up his sleeve than we've let on. I'd bet he has a package of plays the coaches feel comfortable with him running. It's not enough for a season, it's not enough for 2 games, but there may be enough plays to surprise an opponent for one game.

Sometimes, if the backup quarterback is ready to step up, it actually can give you a little bit of an advantage because the other team won't know what's coming and wouldn't have prepped for it as much. It could be a totally different Stanford offense tonight. We might be running the option, we might be running a zone read, we might have a bunch of bootleg options where the quarterback can throw it deep or take off if he sees daylight. I don't know, but Utah doesn't know either.

So, yeah, I'm sayin' there's a chance.

RE: 2021 Utah vs Stanford Predictions Thread - 82lsju - 11-05-2021

(11-05-2021, 11:25 AM)Austroturf Wrote:
(11-05-2021, 08:45 AM)82lsju Wrote:
(11-04-2021, 02:48 AM)Austroturf Wrote: On another note, as I write this post, there are fully 7 out of 16 Cardboard members predicting a Cardinal victory tomorrow. Is this pure homerism, or do the 7 of you know something the rest of us are ignorant of? I sure hope Stanford wins. It would be a great upset and set the tenor for the rest of the season (maybe even put us back into bowl contention). But there is no objective data supporting that outcome.

Apart from "miracles happen" (thunder_chik), are there any other observations from the folks predicting a W for Stanford?

I'm one of those seven, given there is no real reward for picking against Stanford I always pick us to win even if I think it doubtful we win (like the Oregon game), if I decide not to pick us to win I won't make a prediction...

Hmmm, I thought the penalty for picking against Stanford had been removed. George? Your wise counsel is required.

I meant no real reward in terms of winning the pool, no NIL deals, no trophy, no skybox seats....

I get zero joy picking the exact score if I have to pick against Stanford so I don't.

Maybe next year if we all have to kick in some $$ and the winner takes all I'll pick differently....

Quote:Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith, the father of Stanford running back E.J. Smith, wrote to his 763,600 Twitter followers that the offense was “too predictable” during Saturday’s 20-13 loss to Washington, which was the second straight game that the Cardinal allowed a go-ahead touchdown in the final 90 seconds.

“That’s what you get … when you’re trying to feature your QB,” Smith wrote in a since-deleted tweet. “You have 3 RBs who can produce for you.”
...
“More than anything else it’s really just a mentality,” Shaw said. “It’s the mentality of finishing games. There’s no magic trick, there’s no magic play call, there’s no benching one guy and starting another guy. It’s a collective effort in all three phases to realize when you’re close and get over the top. We used to be one of the best teams in America in doing that for almost a decade, winning those close games at the end, and we have to accept the fact that we haven’t done it and need to relearn how to do it.”

https://www.mercurynews.com/2021/11/04/how-can-stanford-upset-utah-shaw-says-cardinal-must-relearn-how-to-win-close-games/

RE: 2021 Utah vs Stanford Predictions Thread - Austroturf - 11-05-2021

(11-05-2021, 12:57 PM)82lsju Wrote:
(11-05-2021, 11:25 AM)Austroturf Wrote:
(11-05-2021, 08:45 AM)82lsju Wrote:
(11-04-2021, 02:48 AM)Austroturf Wrote: On another note, as I write this post, there are fully 7 out of 16 Cardboard members predicting a Cardinal victory tomorrow. Is this pure homerism, or do the 7 of you know something the rest of us are ignorant of? I sure hope Stanford wins. It would be a great upset and set the tenor for the rest of the season (maybe even put us back into bowl contention). But there is no objective data supporting that outcome.

Apart from "miracles happen" (thunder_chik), are there any other observations from the folks predicting a W for Stanford?

I'm one of those seven, given there is no real reward for picking against Stanford I always pick us to win even if I think it doubtful we win (like the Oregon game), if I decide not to pick us to win I won't make a prediction...

Hmmm, I thought the penalty for picking against Stanford had been removed. George? Your wise counsel is required.

I meant no real reward in terms of winning the pool, no NIL deals, no trophy, no skybox seats....

I get zero joy picking the exact score if I have to pick against Stanford so I don't.

Maybe next year if we all have to kick in some $$ and the winner takes all I'll pick differently....

OK. Makes sense. But I have no problem picking against Stanford if I think they have a low percentage chance of winning. In fact, this provides an upside for each of the two possible scenarios. Clearly, if Stanford beats Utah, I fall in the rankings, but a Cardinal W is worth far more. If what I predicted actually happens, I'll hate the L, but at least rise in the rankings. The worst scenario? Picking the W, getting the L and falling in the rankings.

RE: 2021 Utah vs Stanford Predictions Thread - martyup - 11-05-2021

The widget is not working. Here is my prediction: Stanford 21 -- Utah 20

But really, I don't think we have a prayer.

RE: 2021 Utah vs Stanford Predictions Thread - CPSteeple - 11-05-2021

Widget still down so I’ll record my prediction here:

Stanford- 17
Utah- 31

RE: 2021 Utah vs Stanford Predictions Thread - george - 11-05-2021

(11-05-2021, 07:11 PM)CPSteeple Wrote: Widget still down so I’ll record my prediction here:

Stanford- 17
Utah- 31

The widget stops 5 mins before air time.

RE: 2021 Utah vs Stanford Predictions Thread - george - 11-05-2021

(11-05-2021, 07:51 PM)george Wrote: The widget stops 5 mins before air time.

Except that I occasionally forget that for some reason the board software is set to East Coast time. Sorry about this. Luckily the game is rough enough so far that I'm able to go through and manually add your scores martyup/CPSteeple.