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RE: USC at Cal postponed - akiddoc - 11-10-2021

(11-09-2021, 10:00 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I get the frustration.  We’ve been living through this for 20 months.  If vaccinated, their risk of severe disease is very very low.  At some point, as Lex notes, we are just going to have to bite the bullet and call this an endemic virus, accept that people will catch COVID-19 in the way that they catch a cold, and in most cases have people take it easy for a few days until they recover.  But that will mean that seasonally,  Vulnerable patients will die from COVID at rates hopefully no higher than influenza.

BC

The death rate from Covid remains at least 10 times that of the usual Flu death rate. And that's in the face of masking and related rules in many states. Getting back to "normal" is going to depend on our tolerance for death and disability. (I think most people are unaware of the high rate of disability after Covid infection.) Flu killed 20 to 50 thousand a year prior to Covid. Currently we're running about 500,000 a year with Covid. As the population becomes more immune over time that will drop. I don't really know when life will be "normal," but in the medical profession we will likely wear masks in close patient interactions for a decade. The Cal case shows how you can spread Covid without knowing you have it. Can't have medical professionals doing that.

I haven't seen a single documented Flu case yet this season. I had one last year. Masking and isolation certainly stops some viruses. Oakland Unified School District is sending every kid home for 10 days with any viral symptoms and it has been pretty effective. I have seen a bit of Rhinovirus, RSV and Parainfluenza. Kids are spreading those around at daycare. A little Covid but that's only about 5% of the tests that I'm doing right now.

RE: USC at Cal postponed - OutsiderFan - 11-10-2021

I find it exceptionally hard to believe Cal is the only FBS football program in the country with a major Covid outbreak on its team.  My cynical assumption is other schools simply aren't testing, or have defied CDC guidelines about how to manage asymptomatic infections.

We now know vaccination does not confer Covid immunity, but does greatly reduce symptoms, so it seems logical to assume there is a lot more Covid being spread than people realize. 

Cal players with asymptomatic infections have likely been infecting people beyond just other football players, but now that they are being tested and quarantined, the football team will at least will theoretically stop spreading Covid. The rest of the campus population and community writ large?  Who knows.

RE: USC at Cal postponed - BostonCard - 11-10-2021

(11-10-2021, 06:06 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  We now know vaccination does not confer Covid immunity, but does greatly reduce symptoms, so it seems logical to assume there is a lot more Covid being spread than people realize. 

This is factually incorrect.  Vaccination provides immunity against COVID, but it is merely pretty good,  not perfect.  Do not confuse the fact that it breakthrough infections are possible as evidence that the vaccines don’t provide immunity.  Note that the immunity provided by vaccination is better than the immunity people get from prior infection.

BC

RE: USC at Cal postponed - OutsiderFan - 11-10-2021

(11-10-2021, 08:19 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  
(11-10-2021, 06:06 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  We now know vaccination does not confer Covid immunity, but does greatly reduce symptoms, so it seems logical to assume there is a lot more Covid being spread than people realize. 

This is factually incorrect.  Vaccination provides immunity against COVID, but it is merely pretty good,  not perfect.  Do not confuse the fact that it breakthrough infections are possible as evidence that the vaccines don’t provide immunity.  Note that the immunity provided by vaccination is better than the immunity people get from prior infection.

BC

Really, BC? You're really going to get pedantic over this? I was making a layman's point; you can still get Covid even if vaccinated. How can you possibly take issue with this?

RE: USC at Cal postponed - 2006alum - 11-10-2021

Immunity
noun

  1. 1. the ability of an organism to resist a particular infection or toxin by the action of specific antibodies or sensitized white blood cells.

If immunity is a 0-1 binary, then I suppose OF is correct, because a breakthrough infection necessary means the organism has not been able to resist the infection, and is therefore not "immune." 

But more importantly, we're veering off track and as much as I am nostalgic for our endless debates about COVID restrictions sometimes punctuated by extremely informative posts about the science and public health aspects of the disease, the Admins are not, and so we should probably get back to COVID as it affects college football... 

:D

RE: USC at Cal postponed - teejers1 - 11-10-2021

(11-10-2021, 06:06 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:  I find it exceptionally hard to believe Cal is the only FBS football program in the country with a major Covid outbreak on its team.  My cynical assumption is other schools simply aren't testing, or have defied CDC guidelines about how to manage asymptomatic infections.

Same here.  And no one on campus is dying.  Yeah, yeah, yeah . . . but others who were infected by Cal players/students may be.
The tracing of that is impossible (and our experience at attempting same beyond lame).  So, it's going to come down to society's tolerance levels, which will be informed by death rates and many other factors.  

And kiddoc, you may think Oakland's policy of sending kids home for 10 days is great from a medical profession perspective - and it probably is - but I guarantee you parents (working parents, in particular) want and need their kids at school, especially if there are no Zoom alternatives (which is the case at our high school).  [I'm convinced that the dissatisfaction with the handling of public schools is why the Newsom recall ever had any semblance of legs (and why he put such a premium on getting/keeping schools open)].  If parents aren't seeing kids get really sick, let alone dying, it's going to be hard policy to maintain shuttering kids for 10 days at a time with a positive test or close contact to same.

Again, we're just going to muddle through this, including in collegiate sports realm, as is ROW, frankly.

RE: USC at Cal postponed - martyup - 11-10-2021

I think we have exhausted the Covid element of this topic.  Please resist further posts debating Covid issues.  If you must, move your debates to PMs.

RE: USC at Cal postponed - thunder_chik - 11-10-2021

Well, here's a possible scenario:
We play Kal, we win, but the next week we have enough team members test positive for COVID and the Notre Dame game is cancelled, thus saving us from the embarrassment of another blowout at home.

RE: USC at Cal postponed - Papa John - 11-10-2021

I'm sure that others share your opinion, but I hope the game is played, since it will very likely be the last walk/final game and unofficial bowl game for our seniors.

Barring a highly improbable three-game winning streak to end the season, most (all?) of the players who will be on the team next year will have never played in a postseason bowl game. Those few who played as redshirt or true freshmen in the 2018 Sun Bowl--Michael Wilson, Jordan Fox, Thomas Booker, Kendall Williamson, Gabe Reid, maybe one or two others?--are the only ones around today.

RE: USC at Cal postponed - Griffins78 - 11-10-2021

Here's more detailed update: 'Ongoing failure': Berkeley Dept. of Public Health pans Cal football program's 'major COVID outbreak' and here: Cal’s football team was 99% vaccinated before a big COVID-19 outbreak. What happened?


RE: USC at Cal postponed - Farm93 - 11-10-2021

(11-10-2021, 04:38 PM)Griffins78 Wrote:  Here's more detailed update: 'Ongoing failure': Berkeley Dept. of Public Health pans Cal football program's 'major COVID outbreak' and here: Cal’s football team was 99% vaccinated before a big COVID-19 outbreak. What happened?
  • 44 members of the team have tested positive
  • Only 2 members of the team (out of 117) are unvaccinated. They both have COVID-19
  • Testing began because there were players symptomatic and tested positive
  • This is now classified as "major" outbreak by Cal-OSHA so California testing guidelines are to test twice-weekly
  • "COVID-19 cases within the program 'emerged in an environment of ongoing failure to abide by public health measures.' He said people in the program did not get tested when sick, stay home when sick, or wear masks indoors."
COVID-19 is serious, and outbreaks are bad.   Yes, yes.   Not to trivialize that but...

When exactly will the players that are not available be allowed to return to practice? and games?
Given that they have a variant that appears likely to navigate around current vaccines to some degree I sure hope they all stay out until they have tested negative a number of times.   Both because that is the safe thing to do AND because it increases the odds that Stanford wins Big Game.

I know a number of athletes have come back from COVID-19 recently and said they felt like they were in a bit of a fog for a few weeks after they returned to sport.   
So again, not to trivialize the seriousness of COVID, but I wouldn't mind learning that Cal believes they lost Big Game 2021 because too many players were not quite back to 100% on November 20th.

With USC now giving UCBers a final home game in December, it would not shock me if UCB opts out of Big Game as both teams would still have one more home game to say thank you to seniors after November 20 2021.

RE: USC at Cal postponed - Spiny_Norman - 11-10-2021

(11-10-2021, 06:44 PM)Farm93 Wrote:  With USC now giving UCBers a final home game in December, it would not shock me if UCB opts out of Big Game as both teams would still have one more home game to say thank you to seniors after November 20 2021.

[twitter]https://twitter.com/slmandel/status/1458609115094126599[/twitter]

RE: USC at Cal postponed - Jamesy - 11-10-2021

(11-10-2021, 06:44 PM)Farm93 Wrote:  
(11-10-2021, 04:38 PM)Griffins78 Wrote:  Here's more detailed update: 'Ongoing failure': Berkeley Dept. of Public Health pans Cal football program's 'major COVID outbreak' and here: Cal’s football team was 99% vaccinated before a big COVID-19 outbreak. What happened?
  • 44 members of the team have tested positive
  • Only 2 members of the team (out of 117) are unvaccinated. They both have COVID-19
  • Testing began because there were players symptomatic and tested positive
  • This is now classified as "major" outbreak by Cal-OSHA so California testing guidelines are to test twice-weekly
  • "COVID-19 cases within the program 'emerged in an environment of ongoing failure to abide by public health measures.' He said people in the program did not get tested when sick, stay home when sick, or wear masks indoors."
COVID-19 is serious, and outbreaks are bad.   Yes, yes.   Not to trivialize that but...

When exactly will the players that are not available be allowed to return to practice? and games?
Given that they have a variant that appears likely to navigate around current vaccines to some degree I sure hope they all stay out until they have tested negative a number of times.   Both because that is the safe thing to do AND because it increases the odds that Stanford wins Big Game.

I know a number of athletes have come back from COVID-19 recently and said they felt like they were in a bit of a fog for a few weeks after they returned to sport.   
So again, not to trivialize the seriousness of COVID, but I wouldn't mind learning that Cal believes they lost Big Game 2021 because too many players were not quite back to 100% on November 20th.

With USC now giving UCBers a final home game in December, it would not shock me if UCB opts out of Big Game as both teams would still have one more home game to say thank you to seniors after November 20 2021.

Players that test positive have to isolate for 10 days and then undergo cardiac testing (usually takes <1 day) before returning to activity. CDC does not recommend further testing due to the possibility of ongoing viral shedding for up to 90 days post positive test.

RE: USC at Cal postponed - Giants - 11-10-2021

(11-10-2021, 06:58 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote:  
(11-10-2021, 06:44 PM)Farm93 Wrote:  With USC now giving UCBers a final home game in December, it would not shock me if UCB opts out of Big Game as both teams would still have one more home game to say thank you to seniors after November 20 2021.

[twitter]https://twitter.com/slmandel/status/1458609115094126599[/twitter]

Barndoor may I introduce you to Horse.  Horse, this is Barndoor.

RE: USC at Cal postponed - akiddoc - 11-10-2021

(11-10-2021, 08:46 PM)Jamesy Wrote:  
(11-10-2021, 06:44 PM)Farm93 Wrote:  
(11-10-2021, 04:38 PM)Griffins78 Wrote:  Here's more detailed update: 'Ongoing failure': Berkeley Dept. of Public Health pans Cal football program's 'major COVID outbreak' and here: Cal’s football team was 99% vaccinated before a big COVID-19 outbreak. What happened?
  • 44 members of the team have tested positive
  • Only 2 members of the team (out of 117) are unvaccinated. They both have COVID-19
  • Testing began because there were players symptomatic and tested positive
  • This is now classified as "major" outbreak by Cal-OSHA so California testing guidelines are to test twice-weekly
  • "COVID-19 cases within the program 'emerged in an environment of ongoing failure to abide by public health measures.' He said people in the program did not get tested when sick, stay home when sick, or wear masks indoors."
COVID-19 is serious, and outbreaks are bad.   Yes, yes.   Not to trivialize that but...

When exactly will the players that are not available be allowed to return to practice? and games?
Given that they have a variant that appears likely to navigate around current vaccines to some degree I sure hope they all stay out until they have tested negative a number of times.   Both because that is the safe thing to do AND because it increases the odds that Stanford wins Big Game.

I know a number of athletes have come back from COVID-19 recently and said they felt like they were in a bit of a fog for a few weeks after they returned to sport.   
So again, not to trivialize the seriousness of COVID, but I wouldn't mind learning that Cal believes they lost Big Game 2021 because too many players were not quite back to 100% on November 20th.

With USC now giving UCBers a final home game in December, it would not shock me if UCB opts out of Big Game as both teams would still have one more home game to say thank you to seniors after November 20 2021.

Players that test positive have to isolate for 10 days and then undergo cardiac testing (usually takes <1 day) before returning to activity. CDC does not recommend further testing due to the possibility of ongoing viral shedding for up to 90 days post positive test.

In teen boys infected with Covid who are NOT vaccinated, there is a 10% chance of transient myocarditis. These students ARE vaccinated. Most likely none of them will develop the problem, but it is possible. Therefore the medical clearance is required.

RE: USC at Cal postponed - M T - 11-11-2021

(11-10-2021, 10:56 AM)martyup Wrote:  I think we have exhausted the Covid element of this topic.  Please resist further posts debating Covid issues.  If you must, move your debates to PMs.

People are welcome to discuss this at theCOVIDboard.  I feel we've no more exhausted the COVID element than the sports element.

RE: USC at Cal postponed - OutsiderFan - 11-11-2021

I honestly can't believe Cal dropped all precautions because only two players were not vax'd, thinking it was fine to return to pre-pandemic behavior.

Still, as mentioned earlier, it's hard for me to believe other programs haven't dropped precautions and aren't spreading Covid, possibly unbeknownst to them because they aren't testing enough.

Yesterday it was reported a Minnesota Vikings player was admitted to hospital with Covid on Tuesday. The Cleveland Browns also have some sort of Covid outbreak. So again, hard to believe no other college football teams are being hit.

RE: USC at Cal postponed - BostonCard - 11-11-2021

Maybe Aaron Rodgers was the vector.

BC