RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
Maple Leaf - 12-06-2021
(12-06-2021, 12:33 PM)PVTree Wrote: What's Tyrone up to these days? Perhaps, he too, wants to return to coaching.
It depends on how he likes playing golf in the rain. His last two head coaching gigs did not go well.
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
Farm93 - 12-06-2021
Wilcox offers something a lot of other names will not be able to match.
Wilcox attended Oregon. For the next few years, that will be a very important positive for ADs. The pending TV deals will mean some schools will get an infusion of cash with little pledged against that revenue stream. And that means it will go to football coaches in most cases. Well with the exception of Cal because they always seem to think the status quo will hold allowing them to just push the funds into debt reduction.
I realize Knight can pay whatever the top tier rate is for coaches, but the problem is that the entire Pac-12 can't offer the level of national publicity and industry recognition that most top talents now crave.
No matter what Oregon does now, they need to do it quickly as LOI day is fast approaching. This rumor was out there for almost a week, so Oregon should be ready to make their move now that the Cristobal news is official.
For those that have not heard, Cristobal's mom is not doing that well so a large part of his desire to go back to the U is to be closer to his mom. Oregon knew that was a consideration. They had to know that the contract, the higher profile time zone and proximity to mom would win the day. I hope that it all works out for him.
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
JohnR34231 - 12-06-2021
(12-06-2021, 10:24 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: (12-06-2021, 10:17 AM)Goose Wrote: (12-05-2021, 11:39 PM)Giants Wrote: (12-05-2021, 08:00 PM)DC 86 Wrote: (12-05-2021, 07:44 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Justin Wilcox - who I believe would KILL IT at Oregon - and Chip Kelly - who already has KILLED IT at Oregon - seem to be among the top candidates to replace Cristobal should he depart.
Justin Wilcox is not a "top" candidate nor a candidate at all for that job.
No question…
The Ducks are looking to make a big hire. Wilcox hardly qualifies…..
Totally agree. Wilcox is a very good defensive coach. His offense at Kal has be run by Beau Baldwin and subsequently Bill Musgrave. It hasn't gone well on that side of the ball. Wilcox and his staff has also been excoriated for very poor recruiting. One might suggest Kal is a difficult place to coach football, and one would be correct. However, Wilcox has done nothing that indicates he can deliver an offense. Maybe he can, but Oregon isn't going to hire on a maybe. Wilcox would be greeted by incredulity in the fan base. Not happening.
I'm not the only one who feels Wilcox would win big at Oregon:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/bundial/status/1467905403983843334[/tweet]
Here's another vote for Wilcox.
https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/john_canzano/2021/12/canzano-oregon-ducks-football-has-only-two-choices-after-the-departure-of-mario-cristobal.html
I've never been all that impressed with the guy, but apparently a fair number of people are.
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
OutsiderFan - 12-06-2021
(12-06-2021, 01:32 PM)JohnR34231 Wrote: (12-06-2021, 10:24 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: (12-06-2021, 10:17 AM)Goose Wrote: (12-05-2021, 11:39 PM)Giants Wrote: (12-05-2021, 08:00 PM)DC 86 Wrote: Justin Wilcox is not a "top" candidate nor a candidate at all for that job.
No question…
The Ducks are looking to make a big hire. Wilcox hardly qualifies…..
Totally agree. Wilcox is a very good defensive coach. His offense at Kal has be run by Beau Baldwin and subsequently Bill Musgrave. It hasn't gone well on that side of the ball. Wilcox and his staff has also been excoriated for very poor recruiting. One might suggest Kal is a difficult place to coach football, and one would be correct. However, Wilcox has done nothing that indicates he can deliver an offense. Maybe he can, but Oregon isn't going to hire on a maybe. Wilcox would be greeted by incredulity in the fan base. Not happening.
I'm not the only one who feels Wilcox would win big at Oregon:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/bundial/status/1467905403983843334[/tweet]
Here's another vote for Wilcox.
https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/john_canzano/2021/12/canzano-oregon-ducks-football-has-only-two-choices-after-the-departure-of-mario-cristobal.html
I've never been all that impressed with the guy, but apparently a fair number of people are.
Out of curiosity, do you find anything impressive about him? To me, he's a no-nonsense, no shortcuts kind of guy. He's exceptionally honest and doesn't have a defensive bone in his body. Cal ties boat anchors to its football program like few places do. Nick Saban could coach Cal and it's hard to imagine them being any better. One thing you will never call a Justin Wilcox team is soft. He has been remarkably unable to land difference makers at the offensive skill positions, and Cal's QB situation after Garbers is a giant ?, but his teams always compete hard and just don't have the talent to beat top competition consistently.
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
Goose - 12-06-2021
(12-06-2021, 01:55 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Out of curiosity, do you find anything impressive about him? To me, he's a no-nonsense, no shortcuts kind of guy. He's exceptionally honest and doesn't have a defensive bone in his body. Cal ties boat anchors to its football program like few places do. Nick Saban could coach Cal and it's hard to imagine them being any better. One thing you will never call a Justin Wilcox team is soft. He has been remarkably unable to land difference makers at the offensive skill positions, and Cal's QB situation after Garbers is a giant ?, but his teams always compete hard and just don't have the talent to beat top competition consistently.
I know what you meant, but in fact all the bones in his body are defensive. He doesn't coach offense. He hires somebody to do that. So far at Kal, at least as far as the "fans/experts" go, he is 0-2 in that hiring. I don't think that approach will play at Oregon. While it goes without saying I could be really, really wrong, I don't think a Wilcox hire would pass the eye test at Oregon.
There have been recruiting issues at Kal under Wilcox. While it is impossible to say how much of that is Kal, how much is the assistant coaches, and how much is Wilcox, that also isn't a plus for him going to Oregon. A more vibrant program at U$C certainly isn't going to help Oregon's recruiting, and Eugene isn't exactly a draw for most 18 year olds. They probably think they need a "name".
The main advantage of Wilcox at Oregon is that he may be the best choice available. It is a bit late to be looking for a "name" coach. The only ones running free are the ones that just got fired.
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
lex24 - 12-06-2021
(12-06-2021, 01:55 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: (12-06-2021, 01:32 PM)JohnR34231 Wrote: (12-06-2021, 10:24 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: (12-06-2021, 10:17 AM)Goose Wrote: (12-05-2021, 11:39 PM)Giants Wrote: No question…
The Ducks are looking to make a big hire. Wilcox hardly qualifies…..
Totally agree. Wilcox is a very good defensive coach. His offense at Kal has be run by Beau Baldwin and subsequently Bill Musgrave. It hasn't gone well on that side of the ball. Wilcox and his staff has also been excoriated for very poor recruiting. One might suggest Kal is a difficult place to coach football, and one would be correct. However, Wilcox has done nothing that indicates he can deliver an offense. Maybe he can, but Oregon isn't going to hire on a maybe. Wilcox would be greeted by incredulity in the fan base. Not happening.
I'm not the only one who feels Wilcox would win big at Oregon:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/bundial/status/1467905403983843334[/tweet]
Here's another vote for Wilcox.
https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/john_canzano/2021/12/canzano-oregon-ducks-football-has-only-two-choices-after-the-departure-of-mario-cristobal.html
I've never been all that impressed with the guy, but apparently a fair number of people are.
Out of curiosity, do you find anything impressive about him? To me, he's a no-nonsense, no shortcuts kind of guy. He's exceptionally honest and doesn't have a defensive bone in his body. Cal ties boat anchors to its football program like few places do. Nick Saban could coach Cal and it's hard to imagine them being any better. One thing you will never call a Justin Wilcox team is soft. He has been remarkably unable to land difference makers at the offensive skill positions, and Cal's QB situation after Garbers is a giant ?, but his teams always compete hard and just don't have the talent to beat top competition consistently.
I think Wilcox is a good coach. He has major institutional hurdles at Cal that hinder him. But he’s solid. Do I think he’s a splashy choice? No, in fact the opposite. He’s a guy that might elicit yawns and then go 10-2. A defensive minded coach. My guess is Oregon wants someone that will make a splash. A la Riley at SC. But Wilcox has major roots there. So, maybe. Be something if he got the HC job and hired Tedford as OC.
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
Spiny_Norman - 12-06-2021
A reel of "highlights" from the Mario Cristobal era, done by some not-unhappy Oregon fans.
[twitter]https://twitter.com/DanRubenstein/status/1467934607995813891[/twitter]
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
Papa John - 12-06-2021
2022 QB Tanner Bailey from Gordo, AL just decommitted from Oregon. He has offers from all of the major southeastern US programs, including Miami.
The early signing period is a brobdingnagian disadvantage for the Ducks this year.
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
lex24 - 12-06-2021
(12-06-2021, 02:52 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: A reel of "highlights" from the Mario Cristobal era, done by some not-unhappy Oregon fans.
[twitter]https://twitter.com/DanRubenstein/status/1467934607995813891[/twitter]
Also includes the Stanford 2021 highlight reel!
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
Papa John - 12-06-2021
TJ Dudley, a 4-star LB from Montgomery Catholic in AL, has decommitted from Oregon. Dudley has a big-boy offer sheet, but no offer from Miami (yet).
Kelvin Banks, 5-star OT from Summer Creek (Humble, TX), has decommitted from Oregon. Of course, he has a big-boy offer sheet, but no offer from Miami, yet.
And with that, Stanford has the #1 rated class in the Pac-12 and the #10 class in the nation--as of 4:35 pm Pacific time on December 6. Considering Stanford football post October 2, 2021, I'm going to enjoy this dopamine rush for as long as it lasts.
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
Farm93 - 12-06-2021
(12-06-2021, 05:19 PM)Papa John Wrote: TJ Dudley, a 4-star LB from Montgomery Catholic in AL, has decommitted from Oregon. Dudley has a big-boy offer sheet, but no offer from Miami (yet).
Kelvin Banks, 5-star OT from Summer Creek (Humble, TX), has decommitted from Oregon. Of course, he has a big-boy offer sheet, but no offer from Miami, yet.
And with that, Stanford has the #1 rated class in the Pac-12 and the #10 class in the nation--as of 4:35 pm Pacific time on December 6. Considering Stanford football post October 2, 2021, I'm going to enjoy this dopamine rush for as long as it lasts.
Oregon appears set to lose a few recruits as that happens now when coaches leave. However it is so close to LOI day that unless they have some epic hire in the wings set to announce tonight they will not get anyone new recruits because of the hire. So Oregon will lose a bit with the coach carousel. Though they should be able to make it up with a bunch of greenshirts in the next cycle or quality juco transfers later in this cycle.
FWIW - While I think Wilcox would be a good hire for Oregon. Oregon pays a lot more to assistants than Cal so he should get the OC type he needs that he might not have been able to hire on Cal's budget.
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
teejers1 - 12-06-2021
(12-06-2021, 01:32 PM)JohnR34231 Wrote: (12-06-2021, 10:24 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: (12-06-2021, 10:17 AM)Goose Wrote: (12-05-2021, 11:39 PM)Giants Wrote: (12-05-2021, 08:00 PM)DC 86 Wrote: Justin Wilcox is not a "top" candidate nor a candidate at all for that job.
No question…
The Ducks are looking to make a big hire. Wilcox hardly qualifies…..
Totally agree. Wilcox is a very good defensive coach. His offense at Kal has be run by Beau Baldwin and subsequently Bill Musgrave. It hasn't gone well on that side of the ball. Wilcox and his staff has also been excoriated for very poor recruiting. One might suggest Kal is a difficult place to coach football, and one would be correct. However, Wilcox has done nothing that indicates he can deliver an offense. Maybe he can, but Oregon isn't going to hire on a maybe. Wilcox would be greeted by incredulity in the fan base. Not happening.
I'm not the only one who feels Wilcox would win big at Oregon:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/bundial/status/1467905403983843334[/tweet]
Here's another vote for Wilcox.
https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/john_canzano/2021/12/canzano-oregon-ducks-football-has-only-two-choices-after-the-departure-of-mario-cristobal.html
I've never been all that impressed with the guy, but apparently a fair number of people are.
I'm just a fan, but Wilcox's teams play hard and generally up to their talent levels (my gut impression). Now, recruiting is of course a big part of the job, and there is no formal admissions barrier that would prevent Cal from recruiting anybody the staff wanted. Still, I find Outsider's explanation pretty compelling. I've long-thought Wilcox is better than his record . . . perhaps WAY better.
If he goes to Oregon, we should get some non-UCB data points that would shed more light on his acumen.
Still, at bottom-bottom, I'd be surprised if Oregon hired Wilcox (solely because of the W/L record at Cal). It would be a gutsy hire, certainly, at first blush.
Should be interesting . . .
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
Maple Leaf - 12-06-2021
The Army head coach would be my choice, he would max the talent of the Ducks. When it comes to recruiting nothing helps land the 5 stars like winning.
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
BostonCard - 12-06-2021
12, 8, 8, 8, 3, 9
Those are Cal’s recruiting rankings during Wilcox’ tenure at Cal. He has *never* had a winning conference season, and has had a winning season twice in five years. He is 26-28 overall, but that is mostly padded by going 11-3 against non-conference opponents; he is 15-25 in the PAC-12. By comparison, over the same period, Shaw is 22-20 in conference (29-28 overall against a much tougher non-conference schedule) and that has prompted calls for major changes “or else” in these parts. True, Wilcox didn’t “inherit a Ferrari”, but in his fifth year in the program, with 100% his own recruits, he went 5-7. The best thing you can say about him is that he is incrementally better than Sonny Dykes (19-30, 10-26), and Dykes has shown that outside of Cal, he can win, going 30-18 at SMU.
I think if you had Cristobal’s recruiting with Wilcox’ coaching, you would probably have a juggernaut. The rose-colored view if you are Oregon is that Wilcox is a good coach, and Oregon will recruit itself, and that as an alum, he won’t leave (unlike Taggert and Cristobal). The pessimistic view if you are a Duck fan is that Wilcox will do just well enough to compete but won’t recruit enough difference makers, especially on offense, to compete with the big boys, and as an alum, the school will find it hard to fire him.
BC
(12-06-2021, 02:52 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: A reel of "highlights" from the Mario Cristobal era, done by some not-unhappy Oregon fans.
[twitter]https://twitter.com/DanRubenstein/status/1467934607995813891[/twitter]
How did that highlight reel not include Sean Barton’s fumble return for a touchdown when Oregon was about to take an insurmountable lead in the second half of our 2018 game.
BC
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
Embo - 12-06-2021
(12-06-2021, 09:02 PM)BostonCard Wrote: 12, 8, 8, 8, 3, 9
Those are Cal’s recruiting rankings during Wilcox’ tenure at Cal. He has *never* had a winning conference season, and has had a winning season twice in five years. He is 26-28 overall, but that is mostly padded by going 11-3 against non-conference opponents; he is 15-25 in the PAC-12. By comparison, over the same period, Shaw is 22-20 in conference (29-28 overall against a much tougher non-conference schedule) and that has prompted calls for major changes “or else” in these parts. True, Wilcox didn’t “inherit a Ferrari”, but in his fifth year in the program, with 100% his own recruits, he went 5-7. The best thing you can say about him is that he is incrementally better than Sonny Dykes (19-30, 10-26), and Dykes has shown that outside of Cal, he can win, going 30-18 at SMU.
I think if you had Cristobal’s recruiting with Wilcox’ coaching, you would probably have a juggernaut. The rose-colored view if you are Oregon is that Wilcox is a good coach, and Oregon will recruit itself, and that as an alum, he won’t leave (unlike Taggert and Cristobal). The pessimistic view if you are a Duck fan is that Wilcox will do just well enough to compete but won’t recruit enough difference makers, especially on offense, to compete with the big boys, and as an alum, the school will find it hard to fire him.
How did that highlight reel not include Sean Barton’s Joey Alfieri's fumble return for a touchdown when Oregon was about to take an insurmountable lead in the second half of our 2018 game.
BC
Fixed it for you. I do agree that it was the key of the game.
And it was Sean Barton who recovered the fumble by CJ Verdell on a play that Cristobal never should have called.
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
Farm93 - 12-06-2021
Logical to me that some Oregon fans didn't like him as that's just what some fans like to do.
Ultimately Cristobal doesn't need to be a great gameday coach now, he just needs to recruit great talent. Cristobal is from South Florida and attended the U. If he can just keep the South Florida talent from jumping to Georgia, Alabama and/or LSU he will be fine. The ACC is weak, so if he can pull back even a few of the South Florida kids they will win a bunch.
Despite his limited coaching success with a meaningful talent advantage in the Pac-12, Cristobal is now making $8 million per year while his new employer is also paying that $9 million buyout for the Oregon contract. So that's now may be the floor on compensation for one time Power5 conference winners. Just FYI for those trying to understand how much the agent of a particular Power5 coach with a few conference titles might be able to get from a school.
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
teejers1 - 12-07-2021
(12-06-2021, 10:22 PM)Farm93 Wrote: Logical to me that some Oregon fans didn't like him as that's just what some fans like to do.
Ultimately Cristobal doesn't need to be a great gameday coach now, he just needs to recruit great talent. Cristobal is from South Florida and attended the U. If he can just keep the South Florida talent from jumping to Georgia, Alabama and/or LSU he will be fine. The ACC is weak, so if he can pull back even a few of the South Florida kids they will win a bunch.
Despite his limited coaching success with a meaningful talent advantage in the Pac-12, Cristobal is now making $8 million per year while his new employer is also paying that $9 million buyout for the Oregon contract. So that's now may be the floor on compensation for one time Power5 conference winners. Just FYI for those trying to understand how much the agent of a particular Power5 coach with a few conference titles might be able to get from a school.
Your last sentence would have some credence if there was any market at all for said coach "with a few conference titles." There was and is none. Also, you're attempting to transpose the craziness we're seeing today with the conditions in 2015/early 2016 when lifetime extension and raise granted. Lastly, you assume said coach wanted to leave the cushiest gig in college football. Again, no evidence of that. So Bernie's Blunder remains indefensible.
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
Farm93 - 12-07-2021
(12-07-2021, 12:30 AM)teejers1 Wrote: (12-06-2021, 10:22 PM)Farm93 Wrote: Logical to me that some Oregon fans didn't like him as that's just what some fans like to do.
Ultimately Cristobal doesn't need to be a great gameday coach now, he just needs to recruit great talent. Cristobal is from South Florida and attended the U. If he can just keep the South Florida talent from jumping to Georgia, Alabama and/or LSU he will be fine. The ACC is weak, so if he can pull back even a few of the South Florida kids they will win a bunch.
Despite his limited coaching success with a meaningful talent advantage in the Pac-12, Cristobal is now making $8 million per year while his new employer is also paying that $9 million buyout for the Oregon contract. So that's now may be the floor on compensation for one time Power5 conference winners. Just FYI for those trying to understand how much the agent of a particular Power5 coach with a few conference titles might be able to get from a school.
Your last sentence would have some credence if there was any market at all for said coach "with a few conference titles." There was and is none. Also, you're attempting to transpose the craziness we're seeing today with the conditions in 2015/early 2016 when lifetime extension and raise granted. Lastly, you assume said coach wanted to leave the cushiest gig in college football. Again, no evidence of that. So Bernie's Blunder remains indefensible.
For those that were calling out that $9 million was/is outrageous need to understand that if Stanford were to hire someone with Shaw's credentials, but not named Shaw, Stanford would need to pay a coach like that $9+ million right now. That coach likely would have an existing contract with a buyout clause, so Stanford would need to pony up $5-10 million AND keep paying Shaw something for the duration of his contract too.
Stanford is not going to be able to hire away a head coach on a current 2022 NY6, but it is worth noting Cristobal was not on a current 2022 NY6 team. Remember, Shaw has to deal with Stanford's very restrictive admissions policies. Who really knows what he could do at other places? We know what Cristobal did at Oregon. He took a school with nearly unlimited resources and a series of top rated recruiting classes to one conference title in five years. That level of accomplishment is worth $8 million per year which is a discount to the Riley/Kelly level of compensation.
Some think Shaw is not going to be the right fit for Stanford going forward, and that's fine. However, for those that think Stanford can replace Shaw, then get AND keep a CFP/NY6 level coach by paying $4 million or $5 million per year, well those days are long, long gone.
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
Phogge - 12-07-2021
Alfieri picked up the fumble and rumbled to a TD.
RE: Cristobal leaving Oregon -
teejers1 - 12-07-2021
(12-07-2021, 08:37 AM)Farm93 Wrote: (12-07-2021, 12:30 AM)teejers1 Wrote: (12-06-2021, 10:22 PM)Farm93 Wrote: Logical to me that some Oregon fans didn't like him as that's just what some fans like to do.
Ultimately Cristobal doesn't need to be a great gameday coach now, he just needs to recruit great talent. Cristobal is from South Florida and attended the U. If he can just keep the South Florida talent from jumping to Georgia, Alabama and/or LSU he will be fine. The ACC is weak, so if he can pull back even a few of the South Florida kids they will win a bunch.
Despite his limited coaching success with a meaningful talent advantage in the Pac-12, Cristobal is now making $8 million per year while his new employer is also paying that $9 million buyout for the Oregon contract. So that's now may be the floor on compensation for one time Power5 conference winners. Just FYI for those trying to understand how much the agent of a particular Power5 coach with a few conference titles might be able to get from a school.
Your last sentence would have some credence if there was any market at all for said coach "with a few conference titles." There was and is none. Also, you're attempting to transpose the craziness we're seeing today with the conditions in 2015/early 2016 when lifetime extension and raise granted. Lastly, you assume said coach wanted to leave the cushiest gig in college football. Again, no evidence of that. So Bernie's Blunder remains indefensible.
For those that were calling out that $9 million was/is outrageous need to understand that if Stanford were to hire someone with Shaw's credentials, but not named Shaw, Stanford would need to pay a coach like that $9+ million right now. That coach likely would have an existing contract with a buyout clause, so Stanford would need to pony up $5-10 million AND keep paying Shaw something for the duration of his contract too.
Stanford is not going to be able to hire away a head coach on a current 2022 NY6, but it is worth noting Cristobal was not on a current 2022 NY6 team. Remember, Shaw has to deal with Stanford's very restrictive admissions policies. Who really knows what he could do at other places? We know what Cristobal did at Oregon. He took a school with nearly unlimited resources and a series of top rated recruiting classes to one conference title in five years. That level of accomplishment is worth $8 million per year which is a discount to the Riley/Kelly level of compensation.
Some think Shaw is not going to be the right fit for Stanford going forward, and that's fine. However, for those that think Stanford can replace Shaw, then get AND keep a CFP/NY6 level coach by paying $4 million or $5 million per year, well those days are long, long gone.
Nice qualifier on "then . . . keep." You can get some up-and comer at $2M/year level. If they prove their worth, then yes, the price goes up. But at least that guy will have built something and presumably earned the salary bounce.
And btw, there is a real institutional issue regarding whether Stanford should pay its head football coach $9M/year. I'll bet a majority of Stanford alums (and faculty) believe the answer is no. There is no doubt in my mind that college football - like all (or most) walks of society - is stratifying into "the haves" and "the have nots." Stanford, if it intends to stay in college football, will likely fall to the "have nots" side of the ledger - we're already there in terms of on-field performance - and just have to play within those restrictions for as long as Stanford University thinks it makes sense to do so.
It may be a grim reality to some, but that's the world we're in now.