Women's Tennis: Fall Nationals

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RE: Women's Tennis: Fall Nationals - ColoradoTree - 11-04-2022

It bears mention that UNC has three players in the final eight, and they remain terrifying as a team this year. They lost last year's #9 player, Cameron Morra, as a grad transfer to hated Duke and they still have the deepest roster in the sport.

The Tar Heels are well-represented in the preseason rankings:

#12 Elizabeth Scotty (Sr.)
#15 Abigail Forbes (Grad Student, 2 years left because she graduated from UCLA in three years; the #3 seed here)
#21 Fiona Crawley (Jr.) (the #1 seed here)
#28 Carson Tanguilig (So.) (a 5-8 seed here)
#31 Reilly Tran (Jr.)

And they also have #2 newcomer/#1 recruit Reese Brantmeier. They are going to have someone playing #6 that is good enough to play #1 on most teams. But as far as a top 3, no one touches Duke, who has #5 Chloe Beck, #6 Cameron Morra, and #8 Georgia Drummy. Three in the top ten (plus three others ranked further down)! Holy mackerel!

Sigh, Ma down an early break, 1-4 in the first.

RE: Women's Tennis: Fall Nationals - TheFarm07 - 11-04-2022

(11-04-2022, 10:23 AM)ColoradoTree Wrote: It bears mention that UNC has three players in the final eight, and they remain terrifying as a team this year. They lost last year's #9 player, Cameron Morra, as a grad transfer to hated Duke and they still have the deepest roster in the sport.

The Tar Heels are well-represented in the preseason rankings:

#12 Elizabeth Scotty (Sr.)
#15 Abigail Forbes (Grad Student, 2 years left because she graduated from UCLA in three years; the #3 seed here)
#21 Fiona Crawley (Jr.) (the #1 seed here)
#28 Carson Tanguilig (So.) (a 5-8 seed here)
#31 Reilly Tran (Jr.)

And they also have #2 newcomer/#1 recruit Reese Brantmeier. They are going to have someone playing #6 that is good enough to play #1 on most teams. But as far as a top 3, no one touches Duke, who has #5 Chloe Beck, #6 Cameron Morra, and #8 Georgia Drummy. Three in the top ten (plus three others ranked further down)! Holy mackerel!

Sigh, Ma down an early break, 1-4 in the first.

How close are we to matching their lineup? And projecting ahead with the two top 10 recruit commitments we just got, how far does that help next year?

RE: Women's Tennis: Fall Nationals - ColoradoTree - 11-04-2022

Ma went down 2-5, but held to 3-5 and broke back to get it on serve at 4-5. Serving to tie up the set, she saved a couple break points and got it to deciding point, and she won it for 5-5! She then got it to deciding point on Tanguilig's serve, and she broke her to take her first lead of the match, 6-5! She'll serve for the set next.

(11-04-2022, 10:32 AM)TheFarm07 Wrote: How close are we to matching their lineup? And projecting ahead with the two top 10 recruit commitments we just got, how far does that help next year?

So, let's line it up, with the caveat that we don't know where Brantmeier will slot into their lineup or where Blokhina will slot into ours, but we can make an educated guess.

1. #7 Ma (So.) vs. #12 Scotty (Sr.) -- toss up, but slight Stanford lean
2. #14 Yepifanova (So.) vs. #15 Forbes (Gr.) -- slight UNC lean based on Forbes' experience, but Sasha is good enough to beat her
3. #105 Blake (Sr.) vs. #21 Crawley (Jr.) -- UNC favored
4. [#6] Blokhina (Fr.) vs. #31 Tran (Jr.) -- slight UNC lean based on experience, but could go our way
5. #83 Xu (So.) vs. #28 Tanguilig (So.) -- UNC favored
6. Geller (Sr.) vs. [#2] Brantmeier -- UNC strongly favored

Playing them is a heavy, heavy lift, and if our doubles play continues to disappoint, then you have to find four wins there, which is going to be extremely difficult.

Projecting to next year, assuming the seniors don't come back for another go-round:

1. Ma (Jr.) vs. Forbes (Gr.) -- toss-up
2. Yepifanova (Jr.) vs. Crowley (Sr.) -- toss-up
3. Yu (Fr.) vs. Tran (Sr.) -- hard to say!
4. Blokhina (So.) vs. Brantmeier (So.) -- probably lean Brantmeier, but close
5. Xu (Jr.) vs. Tanguilig (Jr.) -- UNC favored
6. Hui (Fr.) vs. Theodora Rabman (Fr.) -- UNC favored

Ma closes out the set, 7-5! That's a run of five straight games, including two breaks of Tanguilig's serve, and the UNC sophomore has to be pretty frustrated at that turn of events. Sometimes giving up a lead like that can steamroll into disappointment, so I'm curious to see how the second goes. As many of you know, sometimes when you're playing someone as the underdog, and you have them on the ropes, losing a close first set can just deflate you and make the mountain to climb so much higher. Lots of 6-7, 1-6 losses last season against higher-ranked players.

RE: Women's Tennis: Fall Nationals - ColoradoTree - 11-04-2022

Or, you know, it goes completely the other way. Tanguilig takes the second set 6-1. Ma serves to open the third set and holds at love.

Ma breaks to go up 2-0, and then holds in a tighter game to go up 3-0. Glad she woke up!

RE: Women's Tennis: Fall Nationals - TheFarm07 - 11-04-2022

Thanks for the analysis and updates.

So, what you're saying is that, it will be a tough go this year and next season, even with the two top-10 recruits we just got.

RE: Women's Tennis: Fall Nationals - ColoradoTree - 11-04-2022

(11-04-2022, 11:48 AM)TheFarm07 Wrote: Thanks for the analysis and updates.

So, what you're saying is that, it will be a tough go this year and next season, even with the two top-10 recruits we just got.

I mean, yes, it'll be tough to beat UNC this year and next year, for sure. But by no means is it impossible. Stanford historically peaks at NCAA tournament time, and even in disappointing years like last year, we were just as good as the #2 seed in the country in the NCAA Round of 16. (I know we lost 4-1, but still, put that match on a neutral court instead of in front of Oklahoma fans in Norman, and it's a coin flip.) Player rankings are a feature of the matches they play and the players they beat, so Stanford's roster is consistently underranked relative to objective quality due to the relatively light schedule they play in the fall and over the summer. I think UNC's roster is a little overranked due to a heavier summer and fall workload.

A player like Valencia Xu is a good example. She came in as a top 10 recruit, albeit the #3 recruit in the incoming Stanford class. Put her at UNC, and she's probably playing more summer tournaments that raise her profile and she's playing all the ITA fall tournaments she can, and she'll start the season ranked a good deal higher than she would be at Stanford, even though she's still roughly the same player. (I'm not going to say UNC's approach is better than Stanford's at improving the player, but it does seem pretty clear it's better at maximizing the inputs that go into the individual ITA ranking.) And putting Blake at 105 is just laughable based on an eye test. But she plays a light schedule individually and she doesn't get many ranked players at the #3 line, so where is the objective evidence putting her higher than that?

I think Stanford is a top 5 team this year, and we'll be one next year, too. (Whether we're actually ranked in the top 5 come tournament time depends on the vagaries of the results in the precious few high-quality matches Lele schedules. But looking at various rosters, we're in that mix.) And when top 5 teams play each other, anything can happen. I hope we get them at National Indoors and we can see how we stack up.

Tanguilig held for 3-1, Ma held at love again for 4-1, and then she broke on deciding point to go up 5-1! Connie is serving for the match now if you want to tune in.

Plus, I mean, we get top 10 recruits basically every single year. So does UNC now. We've got the #3 and #7 recruits coming in, and the #3 recruit has been #1 at some point every year in high school. UNC is getting the #2 recruit, Theadora Rabman from New York, though Rabman has never been #1 in the class. At this stage, it's all reloading every single year.

Ma holds on deciding point for the 7-5, 1-6, 6-1 win. A weird scoreline with them trading breadsticks, but a win is a win! Onto the semifinals, where she'll play Princeton senior Daria Frayman, the preseason #3 player in the country who just beat 3rd-seeded and 15th-ranked Abigail Forbes of UNC, 6-4, 6-4. It's a rematch of last year's Fall Nationals quarterfinal, where Frayman beat Ma 6-4, 6-4. Frayman really took a jump before last year, and she's one to beat this year. However this match shakes out, this has been a very useful tournament for Ma in terms of picking up some quality wins for her individual ranking--the preseason #5 and #28 players, plus a Spanish freshman who looks primed to get plenty of ranked SEC wins this year for Arkansas and climb the rankings herself. And now she gets #3, where a win is massive for her ranking and a loss barely hurts you.

The other semifinal is top-seeded and 21st-ranked Fiona Crawley of UNC vs. 5-8-seeded and 16th-ranked Carol Lee of Georgia Tech. Ma wouldn't mind seeing Crawley again, probably--she beat Crawley twice last year, first in three sets at last year's Fall Nationals and then in straight sets in the NCAA individual tournament.

Oh, and another comment on our roster construction vs. UNC's. Early season rankings are largely from fall tournament play, so if UNC's #5 singles player has a couple of good tournaments where she beats a couple good players and loses to a couple good players, she'll jump higher in the rankings. As the season goes on, the number of high-quality wins you need to stay ranked highly goes up, so if you're playing #5 singles, you won't get those opportunities, and your ranking will plummet. But the beauty of team tennis is that you have to beat the player on the other side of the court, and just because you're ranked higher doesn't mean you're better or that you'll play better on the day. Blake last year was so good at #3 singles, but her ranking didn't climb because she didn't play too many elite players on that line. But she's way, way better than #105.

RE: Women's Tennis: Fall Nationals - Spiny_Norman - 11-04-2022

I know that this is a women's tennis thread. But it's worth mentioning that Stanford frosh Nishesh Basavareddy is in the men's singles semis as well.

RE: Women's Tennis: Fall Nationals - ColoradoTree - 11-04-2022

(11-04-2022, 01:21 PM)Spiny_Norman Wrote: I know that this is a women's tennis thread. But it's worth mentioning that Stanford frosh Nishesh Basavareddy is in the men's singles semis as well.

Indeed! I tend to stay in my lane, but yeah, pretty amazing that one of our freshman--and the lower-ranked of our two frosh, to boot--is in the semis.

The men's team is going to be dangerous, with the #1 recruiting class in 2020 and again in 2022. And if it's not this year, it might be next year, with three blue chips in the class, including one (Kyle Kang) who has been the #1 recruit for much of the past year (currently #3).

RE: Women's Tennis: Fall Nationals - Spiny_Norman - 11-04-2022

A key for the men will be whether Arthur Fery returns in January as he has planned. He has taken off fall quarter to play in events around England. If he does really well, he might choose to give up college tennis entirely.

RE: Women's Tennis: Fall Nationals - ColoradoTree - 11-05-2022

Ma on serve so far in her first set against Frayman, up 4-3.

Now up 6-5. Both players have been very solid on serve.

Ma takes the set, 7-5! She converts on her first break chance of the match, and that’s the difference. Each player got one break chance, but Ma converted hers.

Meanwhile, Crawley has been off court for like fifteen minutes already as she cruised in her semi, 6-1, 6-0. She’ll be well-rested, that’s for sure!

RE: Women's Tennis: Fall Nationals - ColoradoTree - 11-05-2022

A bit of a different story in the second set, as both players have broken the other twice. Frayman leads 6-5 and she’ll serve for the second set next.

Connie breaks and it’ll be a pivotal tiebreaker coming up!

She was down 4-1 in the breaker and came back to tie it up and then take the lead! She’s up 5-4 now.

Now 6-4! Then 6-5 and Connie will serve for it.

Sigh, 6-6. And now 6-7. Yeesh.

Frayman takes the tiebreaker 8-6, and they’ll play a third. Bummer to have a couple of match points and not convert, so hopefully she uses that frustration as fuel instead of it burying her.

RE: Women's Tennis: Fall Nationals - ColoradoTree - 11-05-2022

Trading some breaks here in the third set of what has been as even a match as they come. Now 4-4, with Frayman about to serve.

Frayman holds a tight one, and Ma will serve to stay in it.

And it’s a third set tiebreaker to decide this fantastic match. How else could it end? Come on, Connie!!!

RE: Women's Tennis: Fall Nationals - ColoradoTree - 11-05-2022

Sigh. Oh well.

RE: Women's Tennis: Fall Nationals - cardfan77 - 11-06-2022

Nishesh Basavareddy is the Men’s ITA Tennis National Singles Champion!

RE: Women's Tennis: Fall Nationals - ColoradoTree - 11-16-2022

New ITA rankings dropped today, and here's where we stand:

11. Connie Ma (down 4 spots from 7)
38. Alexandra Yepifanova (down 24 spots from 14)
44. Alexis Blokhina (debut in the rankings)
45. Angelica Blake (up 60 spots from 105)

We also have the 36th-ranked doubles team in Blokhina/Yepifanova as Ma/Blake drop out of the rankings. Valencia Xu also fell out of the singles rankings.

You may be asking yourself, "hey, wait, how can Ma have that great run at Fall Nationals and somehow DROP in the rankings??" And the answer to that is that the players above her had better fall resumes. They played in multiple elite fall tournaments, whereas Ma played in just one--Fall Nationals. So, they got a lot of wins against good players while Ma was sitting on campus. (This is not a criticism of Ma, by any means. It's simply how Lele manages the fall schedule. We have players who are absolutely among the 50 best in the country who won't qualify for the NCAA singles tournament because their rankings won't be good enough, and rankings depend on who you play and who you beat. Get Ma in those tournaments and she's top 5. Get Yepifanova in those tournaments and she's top 10-15. Get Blokhina and Blake in those tournaments and they're top 30.)

Because of how the rankings are calculated, wins over highly-ranked players are extremely valuable, wins over middling players don't do much for you, losses to highly-ranked players barely hurt you, and losses to middling players are a major drag on your rankings. So, the incentive is to play as many top-quality matches as you can. Stanford has clearly made a choice not to do that. And that's not to say it's a bad choice on balance! The spring season is going to eat into time in class on campus, so perhaps Lele lightens the load in the fall so players can have a heavier academic workload now and thus take it a little easier in winter and spring quarters. It also has the benefit of keeping miles off their tires, and we've seen it in the past that our players peak in the late spring and seem fresher when the NCAA tournament rolls around. Anyway, there are benefits; I'm just noting that there are costs in terms of the rankings. Something to keep in mind when selections for the individual NCAA tournament are announced.

Another thing that hampers Stanford players in the ranking is our region. At Northwest Regionals, we usually have 6-8 players among the top 16 seeds, and often 4-5 of the top 8. Our primary competition at that tournament are players from Cal, a handful of other good players from UW and sometimes Oregon or St. Mary's, and each other. Meanwhile, some of the southeastern regions have several excellent programs there, so it's almost like playing another elite fall tournament in terms of how it helps (or in the case of losses, doesn't really hurt) your ranking.

UNC has three in the top ten, including #1 Fiona Crawley, #5 Abbey Forbes, and #8 Carson Tanguilig (who lost to Ma), plus #18 Annika Yarlagadda, #48 Reilly Tran, and #58 Elizabeth Scotty. Six in the top 60! Goodness.

Closer to home, USC has a strong showing: #2 Madison Sieg, #17 Snow Han, #24 Eryn Cayetano, #83 Emma Charney, and #96 Naomi Cheong.

RE: Women's Tennis: Fall Nationals - magnus - 11-16-2022

Thanks for the update CT.

I was going to wonder if this strategy of deprioritizing individual acclaim might hurt recruiting the top players but then I realized our recruiting results seem pretty tough to beat.

RE: Women's Tennis: Fall Nationals - ColoradoTree - 11-17-2022

(11-16-2022, 10:25 AM)magnus Wrote: Thanks for the update CT.

I was going to wonder if this strategy of deprioritizing individual acclaim might hurt recruiting the top players but then I realized our recruiting results seem pretty tough to beat.

Right? I mean, Lele's approach certainly isn't new, and it's really hard to argue with results. She has long eschewed trying to maximize our spot in the team rankings, too. Sometimes that comes back to bite us (like having to go into Norman for a Super Regional last year), but usually, it works out just fine to be seeded #15 but be the team nobody wants to play. She always seemed to do just enough to get us ranked in the top 16, host the first two rounds, and then we'd be off to the final site for neutral-site matches the rest of the way.

Now that we're in a Super Regional world, though, I hope she changes tack and recognizes she has to schedule somewhat harder to make sure we're in the top 8 at season's end.