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RE: 2024 Niners - Mick - 09-23-2024
Aiyuk had five catches on 10 targets.
Mason averaged 4.1, but the Rams had eight in the box most of the game.
Both lines seemed mediocre.
Fred Warner had just four tackles. DBs gave up a collective 105.6 passer rating to a team missing both of its starting wide receivers.worse than Steve Wilks.
Hate to say it, but Sorenson might be worse than Wilks.
Special teams...can we say it was the worst of Shanahan's career? Gave up a fake punt for a first down. Missed 55 yard field goal. Gave up 37 yard punt return at the end.
RE: 2024 Niners - Mick - 09-23-2024
PFF ratings. Ronnie Bell graded the worst (no surprise there) at 39.8, but Juszczyk graded out second worst on offense, 48.7. I wonder how many blocks he missed or couldn't hold? Purdy and Jennings were the top two on offense at 91.1 and 90.5. Trent W. was third at 74.3, no other offensive player graded over 70.
On defense, Maliek Collins graded 76.9, Ji'Ayir Brown at 71.6, Warner at 71, Bosa at 69.6, Hargrave at 69.1. Lowest grades on defense; Dre's replacement Flannigan-Fowles graded at 30.5, and the two non-Bosa DEs, Floyd (36.5) and Gross-Matos (40.4).
PFF's best and worst graded 49ers players vs. Rams, plus snap counts
RE: 2024 Niners - BostonCard - 10-10-2024
Wow, surprised this thread had dropped so far, but I guess that is what you get when you are a disappointing 2-3. Two quick Niners related items of note I saw:
Robert Saleh, former DC under Shanahan for 2018 - 2020, was fired from the New York Jets after 3+ seasons, finishing with a 20-36 record and two fourth place finishes in the AFC East (and 3rd place last year).
Secondly, the following piece by Neil Paine (previously at 538) analyzes the Niners chances going forward.
https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/football-bytes-the-49ers-are-fine
According to the analysis, 2-3 teams have only made the playoff 38% of the time since the league expanded to 17 games. But, the deeper analytics are that the Niners are not that bad.
BC
RE: 2024 Niners - Giants - 10-10-2024
On the pro scene….
With Celebrini making his debut in San Jose tonight and Buster Posey trying to make the Giants relevant again, there isn’t much room for a 49er team that can’t figure out how to close out games.
RE: 2024 Niners - Mick - 10-10-2024
(10-10-2024, 06:06 PM)Giants Wrote: On the pro scene….
With Celebrini making his debut in San Jose tonight and Buster Posey trying to make the Giants relevant again, there isn’t much room for a 49er team that can’t figure out how to close out games.
I predict that in three years, the Sharks will be the best professional team in the SF Bay Area.
(10-10-2024, 05:50 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Wow, surprised this thread had dropped so far, but I guess that is what you get when you are a disappointing 2-3. Two quick Niners related items of note I saw:
Robert Saleh, former DC under Shanahan for 2018 - 2020, was fired from the New York Jets after 3+ seasons, finishing with a 20-36 record and two fourth place finishes in the AFC East (and 3rd place last year).
Secondly, the following piece by Neil Paine (previously at 538) analyzes the Niners chances going forward.
https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/football-bytes-the-49ers-are-fine
According to the analysis, 2-3 teams have only made the playoff 38% of the time since the league expanded to 17 games. But, the deeper analytics are that the Niners are not that bad.
BC
Well, the Niners won tonight, and the odds of a 3-3 team making the playoffs are 42%, per this link (dated 2021). I'm not as sanguine...the Niners play a record number of teams with the rest "advantage" over the Niners as of the day of that game (7 or 8 games, I forget which).
What record will be good enough to make this year’s NFL playoffs? | NFL Football Operations
RE: 2024 Niners - BostonCard - 10-11-2024
From the newsletter, the win was a pretty high leverage one:
Quote:While it’s not exactly in “must-win” territory, San Francisco already has a lot of postseason leverage riding on that game. Their playoff odds would rise to 64 percent with a victory — or fall to 33 percent with a defeat, putting them even deeper into unlikely-playoff-bid territory on our chart above.
BC
RE: 2024 Niners - Mick - 10-11-2024
(10-11-2024, 09:15 AM)BostonCard Wrote: From the newsletter, the win was a pretty high leverage one:
Quote:While it’s not exactly in “must-win” territory, San Francisco already has a lot of postseason leverage riding on that game. Their playoff odds would rise to 64 percent with a victory — or fall to 33 percent with a defeat, putting them even deeper into unlikely-playoff-bid territory on our chart above.
BC
What kills me is that the 49ers have a net -21 days rest disadvantage (a record) coming on the heels of a net -20 days rest disadvantage in 2023. Eight of their 17 games this season, they will have fewer rest days than their opponents, also the most in NFL history. There has never been a team with seven games at a rest disadvantage, and there hasn't been a team with six games at a rest disadvantage since 1998, more than a quarter-century ago. They have to play three short-week road games (including last night), most in the NFL.
From week 7 on, the 49ers play the NFL's 4th most difficult schedule of opponents, and during that span, they are at a rest disadvantage in 6 of those 11 games:
Week 7 vs. Kansas City when KC is coming off their bye week
Week 8 vs. Dallas when DAL is coming off their bye week
Week 11 vs. Seattle when SEA is coming off their bye week
Week 13 vs. Buffalo when BUF is coming off their bye week
Week 14 vs. Chicago when CHI is coming off a mini-bye
Week 18 vs. Arizona when ARI has extra rest with SF coming off MNF
RE: 2024 Niners - Mick - 10-14-2024
(10-11-2024, 11:01 AM)Mick Wrote: What kills me is that the 49ers have a net -21 days rest disadvantage (a record) coming on the heels of a net -20 days rest disadvantage in 2023. Eight of their 17 games this season, they will have fewer rest days than their opponents, also the most in NFL history. There has never been a team with seven games at a rest disadvantage, and there hasn't been a team with six games at a rest disadvantage since 1998, more than a quarter-century ago. They have to play three short-week road games (including last night), most in the NFL.
From week 7 on, the 49ers play the NFL's 4th most difficult schedule of opponents, and during that span, they are at a rest disadvantage in 6 of those 11 games:
Week 7 vs. Kansas City when KC is coming off their bye week
Week 8 vs. Dallas when DAL is coming off their bye week
Week 11 vs. Seattle when SEA is coming off their bye week
Week 13 vs. Buffalo when BUF is coming off their bye week
Week 14 vs. Chicago when CHI is coming off a mini-bye
Week 18 vs. Arizona when ARI has extra rest with SF coming off MNF
The Niners (3-3) have a "mini-bye" since they played on Thursday...but the Chiefs (5-0) had their actual bye this weekend, fresh off of their Monday night 26-13 win over New Orleans. Interestingly, it was the Chiefs' first win by more than a TD this season. On the good news side, the 49ers have won 78% of their games over the last five years with a rest disadvantage.
RE: 2024 Niners - Mick - 10-15-2024
Was just thinking that the 49ers had a great run of quarterbacks. Here's a list of 49er Pro Bowl Quarterbacks, 25 in 74 seasons since the AAFC/NFL merger. Stanford quarterbacks in red:
1950 Albert
1953 Tittle
1954 Tittle
1957 Tittle
1959 Tittle
1965 Brodie
1970 Brodie
1981 Montana
1983 Montana
1984 Montana
1985 Montana
1987 Montana
1989 Montana
1990 Montana
1992 Young
1993 Young
1994 Young
1995 Young
1996 Young
1997 Young
1998 Young
2000 Garcia
2001 Garcia
2002 Garcia
2024 Purdy
The list doesn't even include Super Bowl quarterbacks Garoppolo and Kaepernick, or Alex Smith who made three pro bowls with the Chiefs.
RE: 2024 Niners - BobK - 10-15-2024
Or Bill Kilmer pro bowl with Redskins 1972
RE: 2024 Niners - Mick - 10-15-2024
Or Earl Morrall, drafted by the 49ers as the second overall pick in 1956 and played one year with the Niners. The next year, he was traded to the Steelers along with Marv Matuszak (no relation to John) for two first round picks, one of whom became Charlie Krueger, and he made the Pro Bowl with the Steelers. 12 seasons later, he would make the Pro Bowl with the Colts and back up Unitas in an early Super Bowl, then four years later he would make the Pro Bowl with the Dolphins. 21 year career, pretty impressive.
RE: 2024 Niners - BobK - 10-15-2024
Darn mick you beat me.
RE: 2024 Niners - cardcrimson - 10-21-2024
Aiyuk done for the year. Torn ACL and MCL; a major bummer for him and team.
Hope they paid the insurance premiums. . . .
RE: 2024 Niners - gocard14 - 10-23-2024
This may just be a cursed season. It happens in the NFL. A 30 year old was in the hospital with pneumonia. Our only healthy top 4 WR is one who got shot in the chest 2 months ago. Our kicker broke. We're down our top interior D-lineman, second linebacker, top safety on D.
Well let's see what Purdy and the rookies can do. If we can beat an also banged up Dallas team and get to 4-4 with a bye we're not in horrible shape. I can see a world in which we claw and scrape to get to 6-6 and then sneak into the playoffs at 10-7 or 9-8, possibly hitting our stride at the right time with CMac getting healthy and the young guys playing well. Him being out is the biggest culprit behind our complete inability to score in the redzone.
Or we get more injuries, CMac's injuries linger, we continue to not know how to play special teams, and we end up 7-10 in a lost year.
Last thought: I've never seen anything good happen when throwing the ball to Bell. Lets see more rookies and less of him.
RE: 2024 Niners - Mick - 10-23-2024
(10-23-2024, 09:19 AM)gocard14 Wrote: This may just be a cursed season. It happens in the NFL. A 30 year old was in the hospital with pneumonia. Our only healthy top 4 healthy WR is fifth on the list as Aiyuk, Samuel, Pearsall and Jennings are out or on the injured list one who got shot in the chest 2 months ago. Our kicker broke and the kicker we hired to replace him also broke. We're down our top interior D-lineman a second string lineman and two we recently signed, second linebacker, top safety on D with another safety on the injured list.
Well let's see what Purdy and the rookies can do. If we can beat an also banged up Dallas team and get to 4-4 with a bye we're not in horrible shape. I can see a world in which we claw and scrape to get to 6-6 and then sneak into the playoffs at 10-7 or 9-8, possibly hitting our stride at the right time with CMac getting healthy and the young guys playing well. Him being out is the biggest culprit behind our complete inability to score in the redzone.
Or we get more injuries, CMac's injuries linger, we continue to not know how to play special teams, and we end up 7-10 in a lost year.
Last thought: I've never seen anything good happen when throwing the ball to Bell. Lets see more rookies and less of him.
Some minor suggestions in red, based upon the 49er injury report:
https://www.49ers.com/team/injury-report/week/REG-9
RE: 2024 Niners - gocard14 - 10-23-2024
(10-23-2024, 02:43 PM)Mick Wrote:(10-23-2024, 09:19 AM)gocard14 Wrote: This may just be a cursed season. It happens in the NFL. A 30 year old was in the hospital with pneumonia. Our only healthy top 4 healthy WR is fifth on the list as Aiyuk, Samuel, Pearsall and Jennings are out or on the injured list one who got shot in the chest 2 months ago. Our kicker broke and the kicker we hired to replace him also broke. We're down our top interior D-lineman a second string lineman and two we recently signed, second linebacker, top safety on D with another safety on the injured list.
Well let's see what Purdy and the rookies can do. If we can beat an also banged up Dallas team and get to 4-4 with a bye we're not in horrible shape. I can see a world in which we claw and scrape to get to 6-6 and then sneak into the playoffs at 10-7 or 9-8, possibly hitting our stride at the right time with CMac getting healthy and the young guys playing well. Him being out is the biggest culprit behind our complete inability to score in the redzone.
Or we get more injuries, CMac's injuries linger, we continue to not know how to play special teams, and we end up 7-10 in a lost year.
Last thought: I've never seen anything good happen when throwing the ball to Bell. Lets see more rookies and less of him.
Some minor suggestions in red, based upon the 49er injury report:
https://www.49ers.com/team/injury-report/week/REG-9
Dallas kicker with the rare DNP--Jury duty
RE: 2024 Niners - PVTree - 10-31-2024
Before I buy from StubHub (ok prices), I want to ask if anyone here has 2 tickets available for the Niners-Seattle game on November 17.
I'm taking a nephew to his very first NFL game, and I want his experience to be as memorable as possible.
RE: 2024 Niners - Mick - 11-11-2024
My favorite Stanford running back, McCaffrey's back, ran 13 times for 39 yards for the Niners today in their narrow win over Tampa. He also caught six passes for 68 yards.
I thought he looked pretty good for his first time back. Mason & Guerendo were two carries for five yards apiece as Tamp's defense understandably keyed on the running game.