MBB: Stanford 69 -- VaTech 68 - Printable Version
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RE: MBB: Stanford at Virginia Tech, 4PM, ACCN - fullmetal - 01-07-2026
And behind it all, Coach Smith picking his recruits and coaching the heck out of this team. But Okorie is special.
RE: MBB: Stanford at Virginia Tech, 4PM, ACCN - burger - 01-07-2026
(01-07-2026, 07:51 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Fun fact, Stanford is the only ACC men's basketball team with zero away or neutral court losses.
BC
We're also one of five teams in D-1 that are 3-0 or better in quad 1 games.
Makes you wonder what the upper limit might be for this team. NIT is starting to feel very possible. Beyond that? I'll wait and see how we do against three straight ranked opponents coming up.
RE: MBB: Stanford at Virginia Tech, 4PM, ACCN - Gary86 - 01-07-2026
(01-07-2026, 08:00 PM)fullmetal Wrote: And behind it all, Coach Smith picking his recruits and coaching the heck out of this team. But Okorie is special.
He is special. His offensive abilities remind me of Tod Lichti, and Smith is a big upgrade from the previous coach.
RE: MBB: Stanford at Virginia Tech, 4PM, ACCN - old spanish trail - 01-07-2026
I've never heard of any player, college or pro, who did something like scored or assisted on last 40 of 42 points. Maybe one of the pundits will know of similar. What a game!!! So good to have Young back, and Giltay keeps improving. Go Giltay.
RE: MBB: Stanford at Virginia Tech, 4PM, ACCN - skip75 - 01-07-2026
Welcome back Donavin Young! Stanford really needed his contributions tonight. With Okpara MIA And Gealer & Agarwal getting into some foul trouble, support for Ebuka was in short supply. Young was 3-5 from 3 and really helped shore up the defense - including containing Avdalas a bit better as the game went on.
I'm hopeful that he will continue to play a bigger role from this point on. The win over Louisville was a case of everyone in the rotation playing a role. But to win games like they did tonight, they'll need that added depth - more options to turn to when not everyone is having a good game.
RE: MBB: Stanford at Virginia Tech, 4PM, ACCN - SkiBum80 - 01-07-2026
(01-07-2026, 08:06 PM)burger Wrote:(01-07-2026, 07:51 PM)BostonCard Wrote: Fun fact, Stanford is the only ACC men's basketball team with zero away or neutral court losses.
BC
We're also one of five teams in D-1 that are 3-0 or better in quad 1 games.
Makes you wonder what the upper limit might be for this team. NIT is starting to feel very possible. Beyond that? I'll wait and see how we do against three straight ranked opponents coming up.
I try to be both optimistic and realistic with expectations for this team.
In the pre-season, seeing who we lost to grad and transfer, and who we got in, I felt the Coach got in some talent, but not at the highest level,
also some very promising guys but also pretty inexperienced.
So pre-season I was thinking making NIT again would be a h.uge achievement.
As season got going and I saw how much Coach was getting out of the cobbled together lineup, and how fast out of the gate was Okorie,
I was beginning to think NIT was more than barely possible but maybe was becoming more and more like very achievable.
Now? I shudder to think so hopefully on breaking out the big dance moves. But maybe...
RE: Mudhead - TooMuchTV - 01-07-2026
(01-07-2026, 07:46 PM)Mudhead Wrote: I watched it live on TV. I watched a partial replay. I still don’t believe it. I’m old enough to have been at the Stanford win over Rhode Island that got us into the final four. Other than that , this is the best comeback and win I’ve ever seen from a Stanford team.I was in Oakland in 2000 for #3 Stanford over #1 Duke. Stanford scored on their final 14 possessions for the 1 point win.
RE: MBB: Stanford at Virginia Tech, 4PM, ACCN - SkiBum80 - 01-07-2026
(01-07-2026, 08:33 PM)skip75 Wrote: Welcome back Donavin Young! Stanford really needed his contributions tonight. With Okpara MIA And Gealer & Agarwal getting into some foul trouble, support for Ebuka was in short supply. Young was 3-5 from 3 and really helped shore up the defense - including containing Avdalas a bit better as the game went on.
I'm hopeful that he will continue to play a bigger role from this point on. The win over Louisville was a case of everyone in the rotation playing a role. But to win games like they did tonight, they'll need that added depth - more options to turn to when not everyone is having a good game.
Good points. Yes agreed we need DY big time going forward, as an important piece of our puzzle.
I think Benny and Ryan got a lot of fouls called on them this game that they don't usually either make, or get called on, as the refs called this one so tight.
RE: Mudhead - burger - 01-07-2026
(01-07-2026, 08:37 PM)TooMuchTV Wrote:(01-07-2026, 07:46 PM)Mudhead Wrote: I watched it live on TV. I watched a partial replay. I still don’t believe it. I’m old enough to have been at the Stanford win over Rhode Island that got us into the final four. Other than that , this is the best comeback and win I’ve ever seen from a Stanford team.I was in Oakland in 2000 for #3 Stanford over #1 Duke. Stanford scored on their final 14 possessions for the 1 point win.
Not as significant as the Duke game, but in 2022 against ASU, we finished the game on a 16-1 run and won by a point. We were down 14 with 3 minutes left and 12 at 2:16. Win probability bottomed out at 0..6%.
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/game/_/gameId/401409374/stanford-arizona-st
RE: MBB: Stanford at Virginia Tech, 4PM, ACCN - TonyLima - 01-07-2026
I’m old. Just enjoying the ride.
RE: MBB: Stanford at Virginia Tech, 4PM, ACCN - cardfan77 - 01-07-2026
Who is starting the NIL fund to keep Okorie at Stanford? Schools with deep pockets will be after him. I just hope he really values great academics and stick around.
RE: MBB: Stanford at Virginia Tech, 4PM, ACCN - BostonCard - 01-07-2026
The good news:
Per Warren Nolan, Stanford is ranked 33 in RPI and is a top 25 team by ELO (#24)
The bad news:
Our NET ranking is 77, and that’s the one they use to pick at large teams for the tourney
Bart Torvik has us at 58 and Massey at 62.
BC
RE: MBB: Stanford at Virginia Tech, 4PM, ACCN - Card10Fan - 01-07-2026
Our net ranking has to improve and should thoughout ACC play if we can keep this up. What a wild win. Happy for the team.
So we’ve beaten VA Tech and St Louis both by 1 point both each with end of game heroics needed. We also had a one point loss to UNLV otherwise we could be 14-2. On the flipside so close to being 11-5.
RE: MBB: Stanford at Virginia Tech, 4PM, ACCN - fullmetal - 01-07-2026
How many of those ranking systems bias for recency? ^^;;
Mudhead - Mudhead - 01-07-2026
(01-07-2026, 08:37 PM)TooMuchTV Wrote:I had forgotten about that one. I was t there and did t see it on TV but that was a big game to be sure. As was win over Arizona on lat second Robinson goal but that was a give and take game vs a down the whole way and comeback.(01-07-2026, 07:46 PM)Mudhead Wrote: I watched it live on TV. I watched a partial replay. I still don’t believe it. I’m old enough to have been at the Stanford win over Rhode Island that got us into the final four. Other than that , this is the best comeback and win I’ve ever seen from a Stanford team.I was in Oakland in 2000 for #3 Stanford over #1 Duke. Stanford scored on their final 14 possessions for the 1 point win.
RE: Mudhead - Treebound - 01-07-2026
(01-07-2026, 09:31 PM)Mudhead Wrote:(01-07-2026, 08:37 PM)TooMuchTV Wrote:I had forgotten about that one. I was t there and did t see it on TV but that was a big game to be sure. As was win over Arizona on lat second Robinson goal but that was a give and take game vs a down the whole way and comeback.(01-07-2026, 07:46 PM)Mudhead Wrote: I watched it live on TV. I watched a partial replay. I still don’t believe it. I’m old enough to have been at the Stanford win over Rhode Island that got us into the final four. Other than that , this is the best comeback and win I’ve ever seen from a Stanford team.I was in Oakland in 2000 for #3 Stanford over #1 Duke. Stanford scored on their final 14 possessions for the 1 point win.
"Robinson's Heave" was the most exciting Stanford Win at Maples for me! The students rushed the floor and a crazy dogpile with Robinson at the bottom occurred. I think Plunkett and his wife got caught in the court craziness! So great to beat Lute that year!
As for tonight's game - Okorie was amazing! I think that's the best Stanford freshman performance that I've ever seen! He put the team on his back tonight. So grateful for the hard work that Coach Kyle, the staff and the team are putting in! It's making a difference and I may need to renew my season tickets which I gave up under the Haase/Muir debacle. Props to the Stanford Sig Ep Hoops crew - starting with Maxime, Cam and others, and supported by the band of brothers who show up to the games!
RE: Mudhead - 2006alum - 01-07-2026
(01-07-2026, 09:58 PM)Treebound Wrote:Was there for Robinson's heave and I'm doubtful I'll ever experience better. But I just watched the second half of tonight's game and it wasn't far off: Okorie was a revelation and put the team on his back. It was sick, and I loved every second of those last 3 minutes. Go Card!(01-07-2026, 09:31 PM)Mudhead Wrote:(01-07-2026, 08:37 PM)TooMuchTV Wrote:I had forgotten about that one. I was t there and did t see it on TV but that was a big game to be sure. As was win over Arizona on lat second Robinson goal but that was a give and take game vs a down the whole way and comeback.(01-07-2026, 07:46 PM)Mudhead Wrote: I watched it live on TV. I watched a partial replay. I still don’t believe it. I’m old enough to have been at the Stanford win over Rhode Island that got us into the final four. Other than that , this is the best comeback and win I’ve ever seen from a Stanford team.I was in Oakland in 2000 for #3 Stanford over #1 Duke. Stanford scored on their final 14 possessions for the 1 point win.
"Robinson's Heave" was the most exciting Stanford Win at Maples for me! The students rushed the floor and a crazy dogpile with Robinson at the bottom occurred. I think Plunkett and his wife got caught in the court craziness! So great to beat Lute that year!
As for tonight's game - Okorie was amazing! I think that's the best Stanford freshman performance that I've ever seen! He put the team on his back tonight. So grateful for the hard work that Coach Kyle, the staff and the team are putting in! It's making a difference and I may need to renew my season tickets which I gave up under the Haase/Muir debacle. Props to the Stanford Sig Ep Hoops crew - starting with Maxime, Cam and others, and supported by the band of brothers who show up to the games!
That said, ESPN's win probabilities are often absurd, very frequently proven wrong, and I don't even know why they bother. It's like the algorithm has never heard the (tired) adage, "basketball is a game of runs." One and a half minutes before Virginia Tech was up 13, it was up 5. So going from up 13 to up 4 in another one and a half minutes is very predictable. From there, it's probably 30/70 to go from up 4 to down 1 in another one and a half minutes.
RE: Mudhead - BostonCard - 01-07-2026
(01-07-2026, 10:41 PM)2006alum Wrote: That said, ESPN's win probabilities are often absurd, very frequently proven wrong, and I don't even know why they bother. It's like the algorithm has never heard the (tired) adage, "basketball is a game of runs." One and a half minutes before Virginia Tech was up 13, it was up 5. So going from up 13 to up 4 in another one and a half minutes is very predictable. From there, it's probably 30/70 to go from up 4 to down 1 in another one and a half minutes.
Except. Of course, a bunch of times that have been totally forgotten the miracle threes stop falling or the team ahead makes its free throws or just as mysteriously as it started, the run ends. I can’t vouch for the math that ESPN uses; it could easily underestimate tail risk which happens a lot in these sorts of models that assume certain distributions of data that don’t wind up being accurate. On the other hand, they probably have a database of thousands of games (there are 5800 D1 games a year), so having a team up by a dozen or more points with three minutes left is probably not an unusual situation.
BC
RE: Mudhead - 2006alum - 01-07-2026
(01-07-2026, 11:06 PM)BostonCard Wrote:Here's ESPN's predictions in just the past two days:(01-07-2026, 10:41 PM)2006alum Wrote: That said, ESPN's win probabilities are often absurd, very frequently proven wrong, and I don't even know why they bother. It's like the algorithm has never heard the (tired) adage, "basketball is a game of runs." One and a half minutes before Virginia Tech was up 13, it was up 5. So going from up 13 to up 4 in another one and a half minutes is very predictable. From there, it's probably 30/70 to go from up 4 to down 1 in another one and a half minutes.
Except. Of course, a bunch of times that have been totally forgotten the miracle threes stop falling or the team ahead makes its free throws or just as mysteriously as it started, the run ends. I can’t vouch for the math that ESPN uses; it could easily underestimate tail risk which happens a lot in these sorts of models that assume certain distributions of data that don’t wind up being accurate. On the other hand, they probably have a database of thousands of games (there are 5800 D1 games a year), so having a team up by a dozen or more points with three minutes left is probably not an unusual situation.
BC
MBB, TCU v. Kansas: TCU 98.6% chance of winning with 12 seconds left up. Loses by 4 in OT.
WBB, Ore. v. U$C: U$C 95.% chance of winning with 3 minutes left; loses by 5.
WBB, UNC v. Stanford: UNC 94.3% chance of winning with 1.5 minutes left; loses by 6 in OT.
I'm just saying, if I were a betting man, after consistently seeing many swings like this, ESPN's 90%+ assurances would not coax me into betting even a single dollar. Basketball is a game of runs and anything less than 10 points in the last minute cannot be considered "safe," let alone 98% assurance.
RE: MBB: Stanford at Virginia Tech, 4PM, ACCN - BostonCard - 01-08-2026
The ESPN scoreboard had 53 NCAA MBB games on it. Each of those games at some point had one of the teams reaching a 95% probability of winning; the majority of them actually won the game, but you wouldn’t expect them all to win.
If you do the math, the probability of at least one team today that is down to a 5% chance of winning pulling through is 93% (or the flip side, the chances that all 53 teams that got up to a 95% probability of winning all winning is only 7%). There’s actually a higher probability that at least 4 teams down to their last 5% winning probability pull it off (12%) than there is that 0 do. Even the TCU/Kansas scenario (with probability down to 1.4% has about an even chance of happening in at least one game when 53 are played.
BC