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Series with Northwestern extended - Printable Version

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Re: Series with Northwestern extended - fullmetal - 06-07-2012

Yeah, I'm with FarmBoy, although I think better programs may be avoiding us for their own sake.  I just remember UVA recently enduring seasons of disappointment and thus being a lower tier opponent...hopefully we'll continue that trend for them?  In 2017-2018 though, who knows what will happen.

Re: Series with Northwestern extended - OutsiderFan - 06-07-2012

Virginia is on a nice upswing now.  They finished strong last year and seem to have a solid coach in place.  Plus, that's a great team to be playing from a recruiting territory standpoint, probably the best of all the "academic schools" out there.

As far as playing other programs like Michigan and Georgia, why?  Is the Pac-12 schedule and Notre Dame every year not challenging enough?  If the goal is to play for the crystal football, it's about going undefeated.  If you run the Pac-12 table, which now includes a championship game, and beat Notre Dame, why would you will be in the playoff.  Why potentially cost yourself a shot at a national title by losing at Michigan or Georgia?  You can still lose to Virginia or Northwestern too, but that is historically not as tough. 






Virginia... - Hank 91 - 06-07-2012

I can't say I'm too excited about this development. We don't have to adopt SEC scheduling theory and limit our road games to thirty-minute bus rides, but I don't think it makes a lot of sense to schedule games on the other side of the country, especially when those games could possibly have 12:30 local kickoff times. (Of course, I'm guessing the current crop of Virginia players on the team (or soon to join) are pretty excited about this, even if they won't be around to play the games.)

Before Colorado joined the Pac-12, I always thought they'd be a natural fit -- a team out west with a decent track record of success. BYU would make sense, but with the prospect of occasional trips to Utah already on the schedule, perhaps not as necessary. So for me, the one school I'd choose for an extended series would be Texas. Maybe not every year, but something like every other year would be great.

Re: Series with Northwestern extended - Farm93 - 06-07-2012

Virginia is a great pick.

They play in the ACC, and have been generally competitive in the conference.  By all accounts the ACC is a weak BCS AQ conference, and will get weaker thanks to recent developments.  So Virginia is like a nourishing banana, not too hard, not too soft, nutritious and delicious.  No one will list Virginia as a cupcake, which is a problem with Vanderbilt and Duke types.

But the real value, IMHO, is that this officially puts the team into the South.  Seems as if we recruit great players out of the region, and a game or two on the schedule in the region could keep the parents in our camp.

Duke basketball used to play in every players home state at least once over the 4 year window.  That was a very useful recruiting tool for them.  While Stanford football can't make that promise to every player, I like the idea that Stanford is playing teams from different regions that are likely to not be too strong or too weak.  That approach should help our regional recruiting, so it is all good IMHO.

The true value of the agreement probably won't be known until Stanford gets to February 2014 & 2015,  but it is better than trying to schedule some WAC or MWC likely to drop us if they need to adjust their schedule to move to a better conference.

Re: Series with Northwestern extended - FarmBoy - 06-07-2012

Just so we're clear, I have nothing against UVA as a program. They seem to have decent teams and are more competitive than their history. But I do think they will be viewed as a cupcake, just a step above Duke and Vanderbilt. Losing to UVA would be seen as a significant sign of program weakness, regardless of the quality of UVA.

Honestly, I don't care about maximizing our chances of going undefeated via scheduling magic. I want to see Stanford play great football against great teams. Win or lose. The ACC will continue to be devalued as the SEC, Big12, B1G, and Pac12 consolidate power. So a game against them in 2017 could be on par with a game against the MWC.

I also think Hank91 brings up a great point about time zone. I'm sure the UVA games will be scheduled for pre-school games, but traveling 3,000 miles to play a game is not easy, especially for 18-22 year olds. Before we beat Duke last year, we had a pretty substantial streak of losing non-Bowl games in the Eastern time zone. I don't have the data, but I remember before the 2009 Wake Forrest game, they made a big deal out of the fact that we hadn't won out there in a while.

Additionally, the scheduling theme of "the top academically oriented BCS schools" could tend to pus us in a box. Instead of comparing ourselves to Texas, Michigan, and Georgia, we want to compare ourselves to Northwestern, Duke, and UVA.

Re: Series with Northwestern extended - fullmetal - 06-07-2012

The question is: do Texas, Michigan, and Georgia want to play us?  8)

Re: Series with Northwestern extended - Farm93 - 06-07-2012

(06-07-2012, 02:26 PM)fullmetal link Wrote:The question is: do Texas, Michigan, and Georgia want to play us?  8)

Of course not.

Stanford is too good right now.  The AD at a mega program better hope Stanford stinks in 2017 & 2018 because if Stanford wins they could be fired.  That is a big risk, so what are the benefits?
Stanford plays in a smallish 50,000 seat stadium.  Strike 1
Stanford plays on the West Coast and might schedule the game when the alums are asleep.  Strike 2
Stanford plays in Northern California - home to very few prized recruits.  Strike 3

Stanford could be a decent play for a Neutral site, but that neutral site would need the big state program to fill the house.  And then, of course, that program would demand more of the ticket gate.

UVa's 5, 10, 15, 20 & 25 year records are respectable, and honestly better than Stanford's (excluding the Luck years).  So to suddenly claim that UVa is in some way beneath Stanford is laughable really.

UVa is not too big, not too small, not too bad, not too good.  My guess is UVa was a strategic choice that was, or will be, embraced by the coaches and the team.

Unlike the MWC the ACC is relatively stable.  The MWC teams are almost certain to drop OOC games and/or beg for rescheduling as they try to make room for the new teams.  Also, the MWC plays in the Pac-12's backyard, so it does not help the Pac-12 or Stanford with that East Coast media problem.  Could even say that UVa is critical to getting a national footprint for the Pac-12 Network, but I doubt that was a concern.


Re: Series with Northwestern extended - needle - 06-07-2012

I like this news a lot. Virginia is not a cupcake. Since 2000, same number of bowls (7) as Northwestern.

Compare to Duke (0) bowls, Vanderbilt (2) bowls, Washington (5) bowls.


Re: Series with Northwestern extended - FarmBoy - 06-07-2012

Quote:Stanford plays in Northern California - home to very few prized recruits.  Strike 3

Is this really true? I don't think it is. While it may not be LA, there are quite a few recruits in the greater Bay Area. Especially QBs. And besides, California is California to a school from the East Coast.

Quote:So to suddenly claim that UVa is in some way beneath Stanford is laughable really.

Who is claiming that Virginia is beneath us? I, the person who started this discussion, certainly did not. I think that UVA is like us, in that they're better than their national respect would indicate. However, I would bet that any UVA alum would trade their past 10 years to have our past 10 years, including the Harris/Teevens years, just to have 2 BCS bowls, 3, Voldemort runner ups, and an ass whooping of VTech on national TV.

My argument is that I could give a rats ass about UVA's  program. On the interest meter, beating UVA has no greater impact than beating Duke, even if they are significantly better. I would rather play ABOVE our level, than at or below our level. As a fan, it makes things more interesting. Win or lose against UVA, we're not a headline on sports center. Win against Michigan, you know it will be a big story. (Lose against Michigan and you're probably still a bigger story than win/lose against UVA.)

Whether we can get a home and home with Michigan, I will leave it to the AD to figure out. That's what they're paid to do. I think Stanford has enough currency to arrange some interesting match ups. Every school worth their salt has alums in the Bay Area. And you know there are tix available to our games, even in the smaller stadium. Stanford's had enough head line material in football recently that we are recognizable and of potential interest to the casual fan if we're playing a big time school.



Re: Series with Northwestern extended - Farm93 - 06-08-2012

Farmboy, you did not say UVa is beneath Stanford, but others did.

The implication was that Stanford SHOULD do better.  Over the past 30 years UVa and Stanford look pretty comparable.

The East Coast schools, like the schools from the South, the mountain areas and the midwest want LA kids.  Your average East Coast fan may not know the difference, but the football coaches know there is the Bay Area and then there is LA.  The Notre Dame coaching staff plays Stanford, and then jumps on planes to SoCal for recruiting while the kids fly back to Indiana.  That pretty much says it all.

However, some UVa alums probably would like a weekend in San Francisco.  So a home and home is perfect.  Good for them, and good for Stanford.

Re: Series with Northwestern extended - FarmBoy - 06-18-2012

Quote:I'm not at all sure Virginia would change their record over the past 10 years for ours. Our 10-year record includes seven losing seasons, one of them a whisker away from being winless; four coaching changes; and eight years of vitually nil attendance.

Relevant to this discussion, this web site provides the winning % for the past 12 years (http://football.stassen.com/cgi-bin/records/calc-wp.pl?start=2000&end=2011&rpct=30&min=5&se=on&by=Win+Pct).

UVA is ranked 61 and Stanford is ranked 67. The differential is 0.024, so the overall win rate is the same. As a fan, would you rather (A) a string of ho-hum seasons ending with marginal bowl appearances or would you take (B) a high volatility, feast of famine team that fluctuates between the lowest of the low to the highest of the high? I will watch my Cardinal in either case, but I would personally take (B). Sustained mediocrity doesn't have the psychic benefit of a handful of fabulous seasons within a streak of despairing seasons.

But that may just be me.

Re: Series with Northwestern extended - FarmBoy - 06-19-2012

Why would you wonder what the answer to that question is? Undoubtedly it would be no. But luckily that's not reality. Do you have any other straw men to discuss?

It sounds like you would prefer a program that consistently wins 50-60% of its games without reaching great heights but avoids falling into the gutter to a program that has exceptional highs and lows. Seems like a matter of taste. But in the long run, more people will remember Stanford's run of greatness with Toby and Luck than will remember Virginia's consistent above average. And I think that's more to build on for the future.

Northern California as recruiting ground - Redrum - 06-19-2012

(06-07-2012, 04:43 PM)FarmBoy link Wrote:"Is this really true? I don't think it is. While it may not be LA, there are quite a few recruits in the greater Bay Area. Especially QBs. And besides, California is California to a school from the East Coast."

I think you misread the meaning, Farmboy.    Northern California has a decent number of recruits,  but the interest of distant, visiting schools arranging their schedule to play Stanford (or other Northern California schools) home/home is whether those recruits are true targets likely to have an interest in a school out of their home region.  Generally it's not compelling enough.  Unless it's a bodybag game w/ no home/home arrangement,  then game attendance and TV exposure are much more important.

The analogy for Stanford is Texas.  Top-to-bottom Texas produces LOTS of high quality recruits.  But Stanford rarely picks up Texas recruits, particularly the elite ones.  I could be wrong, but I can't remember when we beat UT for a recruit that UT went after in serious fashion.  That's a HS football territory that is always enticing with its talent but in practical terms is a low-probability recruiting area for us.  (Contrast this with the area in Georgia around Atlanta where we are disproportionately successful  Thanks be to God).  That same practical consideration plays out for elite programs in rich football territories considering where to play OOC.  Texas does not need to consider recruiting advantage or exposure in Northern California because they can recruit most of the talent they need at home.  Same w/ Alabama,  LSU,  Florida, Penn St. et al.  They will go after elite players,  usually from SoCal where there are other interests at play.   

Note that Florida offered Francis Owusu but in that case there are former Stanford coaches on Florida's staff who knew of Owusu from their time in California recruiting.  Otherwise,  I bet they wouldn't put much effort into going after him.

Re: Series with Northwestern extended - FarmBoy - 06-20-2012

Quote:But Stanford rarely picks up Texas recruits, particularly the elite ones.

I may be missing some nuance of this discussion, but I'm pretty sure I disagree entirely with this point.

TX players of note on Stanford's 2011 roster:
Jordan Williamson
Barry Browning
Stepfan Taylor
Jarek Lancaster
Sam Shwartzstein
Cameron Fleming
Ty Montgomery
Michael Thomas
Andrew Luck

In fact, Stepfan put together a video on the topic: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lu6A3rK-jDE

Whether any of them are considered elite recruits, I'll leave to people with more knowledge of that process than myself. But the point is that Stanford has had a very successful pipeline of athletes from that state, so I would think that furthering that connection via non-conference games would be ideal. On the other hand, I can certainly see why UT and other TX based schools wouldn't want to encourage the Stanford-TX presence, so they may not be as interested, but I would leave that in the hands of the AD to figure out.

I think the AD should be able to sell the value of playing a series in Stanford pretty readily. Many top schools have a connection to the Silicon Valley, with many alumni transplants. It also makes for a great road trip for the fans to visit SF for a weekend. Whether elite schools "need" CA recruits, it can't hurt to have that incentive. The Pac12 is a prestigious league and Stanford's recent success means it could be a high profile game (though clearly ADs will see this as a highly unknown factor 5-6 years out.) Of course, on the negative side is Stanford's small-ish stadium and the chance that in 5-6 years, there's more downside to losing to Stanford than upside to beating them.

Re: Series with Northwestern extended - washingtonismoney - 06-21-2012

Put it another way: Stanford doesn't get the recruits Texas wants. As it turns out, Texas has so many good players that many of the players Texas doesn't want turn out to be really good players...But still, ideally, you'd want to take some of those players Texas wants. Not that that's likely to happen (I think Texas has only lost one player to another school that it offered this year?).

Re: Series with Northwestern extended - fullmetal - 06-21-2012

Texas recruits with minimal attention to academics.  This leads to at least some natural divergence between the recruiting pools in which Stanford and Texas are both interested.

Re: Series with Northwestern extended - LuckE2Bhere - 06-21-2012

(06-21-2012, 06:33 AM)washingtonismoney link Wrote:Put it another way: Stanford doesn't get the recruits Texas wants. As it turns out, Texas has so many good players that many of the players Texas doesn't want turn out to be really good players...But still, ideally, you'd want to take some of those players Texas wants. Not that that's likely to happen (I think Texas has only lost one player to another school that it offered this year?).

So Texas didn't "want" a 5-Star QB named Andrew Luck (or Ty Montgomery or Stepfan Taylor)?  If not, their recruiting department needs a serious upgrade in the talent-evaluation area!  If they don't "offer" you, does that really mean that they didn't "want" you (isn't it possible that they may have sincerely recruited you, and then learned that you really want to go somewhere else, before they've extended a formal scholarship offer)?

Re: Series with Northwestern extended - oman - 06-21-2012

(06-21-2012, 09:00 AM)LuckE2Bhere link Wrote:So Texas didn't "want" a 5-Star QB named Andrew Luck (or Ty Montgomery or Stepfan Taylor)?  If not, their recruiting department needs a serious upgrade in the talent-evaluation area!  If they don't "offer" you, does that really mean that they didn't "want" you (isn't it possible that they may have sincerely recruited you, and then learned that you really want to go somewhere else, before they've extended a formal scholarship offer)?

I don't think Texas considered Montgomery (edit: they went for Jaxon Shipley and have a couple other nice receivers from that year) or Taylor (edit: doesn't look like they picked up anyone that year) but I doubt they were without someone highly rated those years at those positions.

As to Luck, I recall that they made some initial passes, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if they thought they they already had a cadre of people who they thought were good prospects who didn't pan out and more importantly, that with Luck's academics, Harbaugh, and Oliver, they would lose a battle with Stanford. 

I was surprised a bit when we lost Durham Smythe (Belton, TX) 2013, but I think that is the example -- Texas and Stanford both wanted him big time.  Texas won.

I only recently started following some of the recruiting, so maybe that is the exception and not the rule.

Re: Series with Northwestern extended - oman - 06-21-2012

Given UT's O-line woes in recent years, are you confident anyone would know how to spell Stepfan if he had gone to Austin?

Re: Series with Northwestern extended - fullmetal - 06-21-2012

(06-21-2012, 09:00 AM)LuckE2Bhere link Wrote:So Texas didn't "want" a 5-Star QB named Andrew Luck (or Ty Montgomery or Stepfan Taylor)?  If not, their recruiting department needs a serious upgrade in the talent-evaluation area!  If they don't "offer" you, does that really mean that they didn't "want" you (isn't it possible that they may have sincerely recruited you, and then learned that you really want to go somewhere else, before they've extended a formal scholarship offer)?

They thought they had their savior in Garrett Gilbert, and yes, their talent evaluation was pretty poor for a few years.  But I also heard that Luck wasn't interested in Texas, so maybe that headed off the recruiters at the pass.