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Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - stanfan - 10-29-2012

We are not the 15th best team.  We'll be fortunate to win 2 of our last 4.

Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - stanfan - 10-29-2012

We are not the 15th best team.  We'll be fortunate to win 2 of our last 4.

Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - Roberton3 - 10-29-2012

(10-29-2012, 02:04 PM)stanfan link Wrote:We are not the 15th best team.  We'll be fortunate to win 2 of our last 4.

The negativity on this board is getting ridiculous.  Do you really think we'll be fortunate to win 2 of the last 4?  If so, then we should put some money on it.  I'd love to take the other side of that bet.

Edit: Just to be clear, I'm definitely not implying that getting at least 2 wins is a sure thing.  But it seems pretty likely.  And it's certainly far more likely than "we'd be fortunate" would imply.

Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - Roberton3 - 10-29-2012

(10-29-2012, 02:04 PM)stanfan link Wrote:We are not the 15th best team.  We'll be fortunate to win 2 of our last 4.

The negativity on this board is getting ridiculous.  Do you really think we'll be fortunate to win 2 of the last 4?  If so, then we should put some money on it.  I'd love to take the other side of that bet.

Edit: Just to be clear, I'm definitely not implying that getting at least 2 wins is a sure thing.  But it seems pretty likely.  And it's certainly far more likely than "we'd be fortunate" would imply.

Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - washingtonismoney - 10-29-2012

Team is way too schizoid to feel confident in any projection. If it plays at the level it did against SC and 59ers, then I'd feel pretty good about 3 of 4. If it plays at a similar level as ND/Duke/'Zona, then it'd probably be 2 of 4. If SJSU/WSU/UW...well, we'll find it difficult to win 1 of 4. So I don't know. No idea.

Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - washingtonismoney - 10-29-2012

Team is way too schizoid to feel confident in any projection. If it plays at the level it did against SC and 59ers, then I'd feel pretty good about 3 of 4. If it plays at a similar level as ND/Duke/'Zona, then it'd probably be 2 of 4. If SJSU/WSU/UW...well, we'll find it difficult to win 1 of 4. So I don't know. No idea.

Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - stanfan - 10-29-2012

We'll beat Colorado.

While I would love to be wrong, my view is that the Ducks will handle us with ease.  Our offense is not productive enough to keep theirs off of the field.  The Duck defense is also very stout.  Our defense is exceptional, but won't be able to keep up because our offense clearly can't hold up its end of the deal.

I don't like our matchups at all versus OSU.  They have two outstanding corners to cover our receivers, are strong against the run, and will be able to load the box.  They have the personnel to do what the Huskies did to us, except do it much better.  We can win this game, but it will be tough to do so.  I think the Beavs have the upper hand in this one.

I see UCLA's spread offense as a real problem for us (think Arizona or a Cougar team that could run in addition to pass).  Again, I have no confidence that our O can hold up its end of the deal on the road.  Again, a winnable game, but based on what I have seen on the road, we will be fortunate to beat the Bruins.

So, like I said, we'll be fortunate to win 2 of 4. 

Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - stanfan - 10-29-2012

We'll beat Colorado.

While I would love to be wrong, my view is that the Ducks will handle us with ease.  Our offense is not productive enough to keep theirs off of the field.  The Duck defense is also very stout.  Our defense is exceptional, but won't be able to keep up because our offense clearly can't hold up its end of the deal.

I don't like our matchups at all versus OSU.  They have two outstanding corners to cover our receivers, are strong against the run, and will be able to load the box.  They have the personnel to do what the Huskies did to us, except do it much better.  We can win this game, but it will be tough to do so.  I think the Beavs have the upper hand in this one.

I see UCLA's spread offense as a real problem for us (think Arizona or a Cougar team that could run in addition to pass).  Again, I have no confidence that our O can hold up its end of the deal on the road.  Again, a winnable game, but based on what I have seen on the road, we will be fortunate to beat the Bruins.

So, like I said, we'll be fortunate to win 2 of 4. 

Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - Roberton3 - 10-29-2012

(10-29-2012, 02:58 PM)stanfan link Wrote:We'll beat Colorado.

While I would love to be wrong, my view is that the Ducks will handle us with ease.  Our offense is not productive enough to keep theirs off of the field.  The Duck defense is also very stout.  Our defense is exceptional, but won't be able to keep up because our offense clearly can't hold up its end of the deal.

I don't like our matchups at all versus OSU.  They have two outstanding corners to cover our receivers, are strong against the run, and will be able to load the box.  They have the personnel to do what the Huskies did to us, except do it much better.  We can win this game, but it will be tough to do so.  I think the Beavs have the upper hand in this one.

I see UCLA's spread offense as a real problem for us (think Arizona or a Cougar team that could run in addition to pass).  Again, I have no confidence that our O can hold up its end of the deal on the road.  Again, a winnable game, but based on what I have seen on the road, we will be fortunate to beat the Bruins.

So, like I said, we'll be fortunate to win 2 of 4.

You're overestimating both Oregon State and UCLA.  Stanford will probably be a slight favorite in each of those games.  But more importantly, even if you're right about the odds for each game, Stanford will probably still win one of the two.  For the sake of argument, suppose OSU and UCLA each have a 70% chance of beating Stanford (which is a substantial overestimate in each case) -- then Stanford would still have slightly over a 50% chance of winning at least one of those games (assuming that they're independent events, which is approximately true). 

Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - Roberton3 - 10-29-2012

(10-29-2012, 02:58 PM)stanfan link Wrote:We'll beat Colorado.

While I would love to be wrong, my view is that the Ducks will handle us with ease.  Our offense is not productive enough to keep theirs off of the field.  The Duck defense is also very stout.  Our defense is exceptional, but won't be able to keep up because our offense clearly can't hold up its end of the deal.

I don't like our matchups at all versus OSU.  They have two outstanding corners to cover our receivers, are strong against the run, and will be able to load the box.  They have the personnel to do what the Huskies did to us, except do it much better.  We can win this game, but it will be tough to do so.  I think the Beavs have the upper hand in this one.

I see UCLA's spread offense as a real problem for us (think Arizona or a Cougar team that could run in addition to pass).  Again, I have no confidence that our O can hold up its end of the deal on the road.  Again, a winnable game, but based on what I have seen on the road, we will be fortunate to beat the Bruins.

So, like I said, we'll be fortunate to win 2 of 4.

You're overestimating both Oregon State and UCLA.  Stanford will probably be a slight favorite in each of those games.  But more importantly, even if you're right about the odds for each game, Stanford will probably still win one of the two.  For the sake of argument, suppose OSU and UCLA each have a 70% chance of beating Stanford (which is a substantial overestimate in each case) -- then Stanford would still have slightly over a 50% chance of winning at least one of those games (assuming that they're independent events, which is approximately true). 

Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - fullmetal - 10-29-2012

Raise your hands if you expected Stanford to have as much trouble against WSU as they did Saturday.  Okay, now how many who didn't raise their hands think that Stanford is pretty likely to beat Colorado?

Stanford *should* beat Colorado, but it's not hard to imagine a universe in which we don't.  Ditto rest of season.

Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - fullmetal - 10-29-2012

Raise your hands if you expected Stanford to have as much trouble against WSU as they did Saturday.  Okay, now how many who didn't raise their hands think that Stanford is pretty likely to beat Colorado?

Stanford *should* beat Colorado, but it's not hard to imagine a universe in which we don't.  Ditto rest of season.

Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - washingtonismoney - 10-29-2012

(10-29-2012, 02:51 PM)garvin link Wrote:You know we were 2-1 in those games, right? And the loss came to a team that just knocked off undefeated Oregon State. I will bet you anything, at any odds, that we don't go 0-4 the rest of the way.

I'll admit to being stir-crazed by Sandy at this point, which may be affecting my judgment, but since all three games were one-possession, close games...well, it's not hard to imagine a scenario in which a critical Jordan Williamson kick goes astray in one of those games or something. Performance is the best predictor of a future record; the performance in those three games suggests a mediocre team.

On the other hand, the performance against the Trojans and 59ers suggests a really good team. (The Duke/Arizona/ND performances suggest...a pretty good team.)

It's hard to figure out, on a given day, which team is going to show up, and that's every unit on the team, to some degree. (Though obviously the offense is most at fault, the defense has perhaps not been quite as consistently dominant as a Florida, ND, or Alabama,* and the special teams are also highly dependent on whatever gets in Williamson and Zychlinski's Wheaties that day.

* Specifically, Florida, LSU, ND, or Alabama close out the UW, ND and WSU games better. Again, the offense is most at fault for those losses, but the fact remains that the defense surrendered fourth-quarter leads in the former two games. Blame the offense if you'd like, but Florida and LSU's offenses are pretty incompetent too--and they play for four quarters. It's just about having consistently high expectations.

And yes, just to affirm (read in Samuel L Jackson from Time to Kill voice): YES JOSH NUNES ISN'T GOOD AND I HOPE HE GETS BENCHED, IF ONLY TO EXPERIMENT. Just to make my thoughts here perfectly clear.)

Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - washingtonismoney - 10-29-2012

(10-29-2012, 02:51 PM)garvin link Wrote:You know we were 2-1 in those games, right? And the loss came to a team that just knocked off undefeated Oregon State. I will bet you anything, at any odds, that we don't go 0-4 the rest of the way.

I'll admit to being stir-crazed by Sandy at this point, which may be affecting my judgment, but since all three games were one-possession, close games...well, it's not hard to imagine a scenario in which a critical Jordan Williamson kick goes astray in one of those games or something. Performance is the best predictor of a future record; the performance in those three games suggests a mediocre team.

On the other hand, the performance against the Trojans and 59ers suggests a really good team. (The Duke/Arizona/ND performances suggest...a pretty good team.)

It's hard to figure out, on a given day, which team is going to show up, and that's every unit on the team, to some degree. (Though obviously the offense is most at fault, the defense has perhaps not been quite as consistently dominant as a Florida, ND, or Alabama,* and the special teams are also highly dependent on whatever gets in Williamson and Zychlinski's Wheaties that day.

* Specifically, Florida, LSU, ND, or Alabama close out the UW, ND and WSU games better. Again, the offense is most at fault for those losses, but the fact remains that the defense surrendered fourth-quarter leads in the former two games. Blame the offense if you'd like, but Florida and LSU's offenses are pretty incompetent too--and they play for four quarters. It's just about having consistently high expectations.

And yes, just to affirm (read in Samuel L Jackson from Time to Kill voice): YES JOSH NUNES ISN'T GOOD AND I HOPE HE GETS BENCHED, IF ONLY TO EXPERIMENT. Just to make my thoughts here perfectly clear.)

Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - fullmetal - 10-29-2012

The season's W-L record is respectable, but the way this team has been playing has oscillated wildly, which makes for high probabilities of playing badly enough to lose games.  Which offense is going to show up against Colorado?

Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - fullmetal - 10-29-2012

The season's W-L record is respectable, but the way this team has been playing has oscillated wildly, which makes for high probabilities of playing badly enough to lose games.  Which offense is going to show up against Colorado?

Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - jayasena - 10-29-2012

Until this past weekend, I didn't think the offense, as a whole, was unpredictable. I haven't analyzed the stats in detail but here's my general "gut" perception from watching the games: To me, all that seemed reasonably predictable. Perhaps the improvement wasn't as rapid or as pronounced as we'd have liked but it's there.

Then WSU happened. Is that a regression of the offense? An aberration in the general trend? What happens coming off of a big rivalry win and facing a supposedly weak team that has had an extra week to prepare? Or is the offense really unpredictable?

Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - jayasena - 10-29-2012

Until this past weekend, I didn't think the offense, as a whole, was unpredictable. I haven't analyzed the stats in detail but here's my general "gut" perception from watching the games: To me, all that seemed reasonably predictable. Perhaps the improvement wasn't as rapid or as pronounced as we'd have liked but it's there.

Then WSU happened. Is that a regression of the offense? An aberration in the general trend? What happens coming off of a big rivalry win and facing a supposedly weak team that has had an extra week to prepare? Or is the offense really unpredictable?

Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - needle - 10-30-2012

Stanford only had nine possessions against WSU:

http://espn.go.com/ncf/drivechart?gameId=323010024

In contrast, Stanford had 14 possessions against Washington, 13 against Zona (in regulation), and 12 possessions against ND.

Without looking up all the drive charts from past Stanford games, I'm going to guess that nine possessions ranks among the fewest possessions the team has had in recent memory.



Re: Stanford #15 AP/#15 USAT - needle - 10-30-2012

Stanford only had nine possessions against WSU:

http://espn.go.com/ncf/drivechart?gameId=323010024

In contrast, Stanford had 14 possessions against Washington, 13 against Zona (in regulation), and 12 possessions against ND.

Without looking up all the drive charts from past Stanford games, I'm going to guess that nine possessions ranks among the fewest possessions the team has had in recent memory.