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Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - 81alum - 01-23-2013

Yvonne is such a great provocateur by asking this question.  And I agree with what many have said.

In college sports, every year is a rebuilding year in the sense that about 1/4 of your players are going to leave after every season.  Sometimes a little more and sometimes a little less--but there will always be holes to fill and there will always be some ignorance about the talent levels of the younger players who are moving up.

I agree with the conventional wisdom that next season will largely depend on how well our receiving corps develops.  But, to be honest, we are only losing one top receiver--so it is hard to imagine next season's receiving corps being any worse than this season's--they might even be better.  Nor am I particularly bothered by the loss of our OC--although it is possible that we might make some ghastly blunder and put a Dana Bible like figure there.  Is is not the loss of Pep so much as the fear of his replacement that is cause for concern.

Meanwhile, our defense will be even better next year as they gain even more experience.  If we continue to hang on to Mason I will feel secure.  So overall, I am optimistic--far more than I was one year ago.

Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - Rando - 01-24-2013

(01-23-2013, 04:45 PM)garvin link Wrote:I think I'm the only one who wonders if we might have another change at quarterback next year. Kevin Hogan did a good job for us over the final five games, especially compared to the performance we were getting at quarterback before he took over. But he wasn't Superman. It seems to me there's room for a challenge from Dallas Lloyd, if Lloyd is really the quarterback he was cracked up to be when we recruited him.

I can't see it happening. I see Hogan as the starter until he is injured or graduates. Incredibly impressed with Hogan and I see Lloyd as being possibly a better scrambler but without the poise, passing and leadership abilities of Hogan. You really can't rock Hogan and he is stone cold. I think next season he will be a top 10 quarterback in the NCAA if he wasn't already last season. Call me crazy but the kid single handedly improved our team from a 2 loss team to an undefeated team. His numbers will only improve.

Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - Rando - 01-24-2013

Let's take a look at who we are losing next season and who we have to fill the void.

HB Stepfan Taylor -> Anthony Wilkerson
TE Zach Ertz -> Hewitt/Meinkin
TE Levine Toilolo -> Luke Kaumatule
WR Drew Terrell -> Ty Montgomery
WR Jamal Rashard-Patterson -> Kodi Whitfield
C Sam Schwartzstein -> ??? (Schuler?)
DT Terrence Stephens -> David Parry
OLB Chase Thomas -> James Vaughters/Lueders
CB Terrence Brown -> Alex Carter/Wayne Lyons

So pretty much all of our possible replacements, if the above were to be 100% accurate, would already have game experience. I'm not even worried about defense. I know we are going to stuff opponents to 14 or less points in the majority of our games. Our safeties are pretty solid. We have some young corners who either have already shown signs of all american ability (Alex Carter) or have struggled but have great talents (Wayne Lyons). Our front 7 is going to be lights out + 2 lights out safeties. It is going to be good night Irene for most offenses and that includes an Oregon without Chip Kelly. The only thing we may lack is speed but we make it up in sheer fortitude with guys like Shayne Skov and Jordan Richards giving those speedy little guys nightmares of concussions.

On offense things will be a little different. I think we are going to cater the offense to Hogan. I think you are going to see something similar to an Oregon type offense. Something like the 49ers are running right now with Kaepernick. We have a QB who can make most throws we ask him and can run really well. We could run a pro style offense if we need to but with nearly all of our offensive firepower leaving aside from our QB, I think we're going to utilize zone read and option plays and get speedy guys like Kelsey Young and Barry J on the field at the same time. Then we can bring more traditional backs like Wright and Wilkerson to run some pro style running plays.

But if we run a pro style offense like we have been, I don't see our offense being as effective without Stepfan Taylor and our tight ends. We relied heavily on tight ends for short passing plays and Hogan was amazing at this. Luke and the FB's we have hold experience in the passing game but I don't know if I can see them filling that void immediately. I also can't see the current WR's we have on our team having brobdingnagian 5+ catch games and getting regular TD's like the Whelen's, Owusu, or Baldwin. I do think we're going to see some WRs step up, guys we haven't seen before like Rector or Crane, or even a freshman. WR is wide open. Right now we don't have that go to WR and Montgomery has been dropping balls but I bet he bounces back.

In the end I think if we run a split between the pro style offense and spread option I can see our offense putting up 21-28 PPG and that should definitely be enough to win games. I think our offense will progressively get better as the season goes on and our skill players gain more experience. Our O-Line should be in good shape. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we made the national title game. We should be the front runners in our conference next season. USC is on the decline and Oregon lost their coach. We beat UCLA twice and Notre Dame will be our toughest scheduled opponent. Here's to an undefeated season and here is to being the first team to molly whop an SEC team in the natty game for the first time in however many years. Let's do it boys!

Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - OutsiderFan - 01-24-2013

People wondered if Stanford could replace DeCastro and Martin last year.  Alabama loses three similarly talented guys in G Wormack, C and jack of all trades Jones, and T Fluker.  They also lose at least three starters on defense.  As others have said, everyone has to replace key players every year. 

OL starts is one of the greatest predictors of a team's success.  I don't know how many Stanford will have going into 2013, but it's quite a lot, between Yankey, Fleming, Danser, and Wilkes, probably 70 at least.  You throw in a returning QB who won all his starts and a Defense that returns 9/11 starters from the Rose Bowl winning lineup, and that's a stronger foundation to go into a new season with than most teams in the country have.

It seems reasonable to expect the WRs will improve in 2013 and Stanford will have lots of TE talent to mix and match. 

As for RB, the evidence suggests Wilkerson is not going to be 'the guy' to replace Taylor.  IMO, Wright, Sanders, Seale, and Young will get more carries combined than Wilkerson, and ultimately Sanders will assume the starting role.  But they may need to tweak the running game a bit for Sanders because his game is speed and quickness in open space, not power.  It will be quite interesting to see how Sanders is incorporated and if/how the schemes change to take advantage of his prodigious talents.

Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - Treebound - 01-24-2013

Many great points in this thread, so "thanks" Yvonne.
Defense: I have a bias to defense and I think we will have more depth, speed and experience than we have ever had.  Mason's Maulers need to keep up the pressure and win the takeaway battle.  They put some great points on the board this year and they will do it again.

Offense:  I agree with many that the key will be the development of our OL.  Shaw will run Power (ideally not quite so predictably under our new OC0.  We need our guys to develop, especially the fantastic (cue Kieth Jackson) "325 pound soph-o-mores."  If we control the LOS then we win with Shaw's balanced attack and our new wide outs and TE's can develop their game and holes will be opened for RB by committee until a leader or two emerge.

Schedule:  We have a great home schedule in the odd years and we have lost very few games at home in the last five years (Oregon and Kal).  It's our house and we defend it very well.  Oregon, ND, Ucle and the weenies are all at home next year.  It sets us up for a run.  The P12 is tough, but I think the Ducks and $C will be challenged with coaching issues next year.

QB - Shaw showed us that he is slow and cautious in making a QB switch.  I do wonder if Bob Bowlsby would have pushed the Nunes Hogan switch given the feedback he gave to David post Fiesta.    My hope is Lloyd is all that and more and that those two push each other to really be great.    Hogan was good in the Rose Bowl, but not great.  Granted, we were all spoiled watching what will be one of the top 3 QBs ever play 2009-2011.   

My how times have changed for Stanford.  Whatever happens, I'll be there and enjoying the ride.  I'm thankful for where we are and I'm excited about where we are going!

Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - washingtonismoney - 01-24-2013

Rose Bowl was interesting for Montgomery and Wilkerson, as both showed some zip they hadn't earlier in the season. I was a bit dismissive of reports that Wilkerson was injured during the season, but some of those runs reminded me of him as a freshman. (And that gratuitous ankle-twist that SC defender subjected him to was K.iffin's team encapsulated -- bush league loser.)

For running back, though, I'm guessing Remound Wright has the lead role, with Sanders and (occasionally) Young being the change-of-pace guys.

Wideout is harder to predict. Hopefully Montgomery recovers all the way. I thought he looked good in the Rose Bowl.  Michael Rector may be a factor. Same for Kodi Whitfield. And Francis Owusu has the best shot at contributing coming in. (Along with the Kelsey Young factor). Hopefully between those five guys we have three competent players -- a guy who can stretch the field vertically, a possession guy and an all-arounder.

Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - washingtonismoney - 01-24-2013

(01-24-2013, 09:47 AM)garvin link Wrote:You're saying Remound Wright is more likely to start than Wilkerson? That seems dubious to me, at least based on what we know right now.

Just a WAG. The thing about Wilkerson is that he doesn't seem to hit the hole hard, and he has trouble spotting it. That's a problem for between-the tackles running.

From the (very little) we've seen of Wright, I've remarked on his acceleration. Seems pretty tough. Was used as both a short-yardage back and a kick return guy, which is an interesting indicator. Again, just guessing.

Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - StannyBoy - 01-24-2013

the problem with Wilkerson is he isn't a good fit for our offense and Wright is. Wilkerson would do well in an Oregon style offense where he doesn't run up the middle and have to hit holes and shake off tackles. Wright did well at that in his limited appearances. Wilkerson excels running outside where he uses his speed and he also has a mean stiff arm. I hope they can run plays where he can succeed rather than forcing him up the middle. We have Wright for that...

Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - slide - 01-24-2013

(01-24-2013, 11:09 AM)garvin link Wrote:Wilkerson played in two fewer games that Wright but had more than twice as many carries. It seems like the position is probably his to lose, with Barry Sanders an obvious wildcard.

Garvin -- I agree with you on Wilkerson.  I think he goes into spring as the starter with Wright behind him.  I think Seale is next and Sanders is a ? at this time.

Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - yvonne - 01-24-2013

Why other than based on  his name, does everyone assume Barry Sanders is going to be good? It'd be great if he is, but I'd rather take a wait and see approach. Remember Nick and Nathaniel Montana?

We've got some good backs, and I don't think we're going to be hurting there, but don't assume that it's going to be Sanders.

Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - oman - 01-24-2013

As to quarterbacks, I would like to think that Coach Shaw is just smarter in terms of the risk/reward on playing quarterbacks who might not be in complete and total control of the playbook.  With athletes in Lloyd and Hogan, and maybe some push from the new guy, it would be great for Shaw to be in a position to trust at least two guys to run the offense and thus put them in hard competition with each other.

I agree that it may all be about how our line develops.  If we get a hard push from two or three of the 2012 guys, things will go well.

Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - Kathy - 01-24-2013

Won't some of these questions resolve themselves in spring ball? Sanders can show his stuff ... so can Hogan and Lloyd.

It really doesn't matter how much or how little we fans have seen of these players on a college football field. The coaches will see something in these players — or note what is lacking — and start working on depth charts from there.

Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - OutsiderFan - 01-24-2013

(01-24-2013, 11:54 AM)Yvonne link Wrote:Why other than based on  his name, does everyone assume Barry Sanders is going to be good? It'd be great if he is, but I'd rather take a wait and see approach. Remember Nick and Nathaniel Montana?

We've got some good backs, and I don't think we're going to be hurting there, but don't assume that it's going to be Sanders.

Yvonne, I don't know how much video you watch of football players, nor do I know how much video of Barry J. you have seen, but his video suggests there he is more talented than any RB on Stanford's roster.  In fact, he might be the most talented RB Stanford has had since Darrin Nelson.  Before you say Gerhardt, Gerhardt is not nearly as dynamic a player as Sanders. 

That all said, I mentioned in my earlier post in this thread that Sanders, as talented as he is, may not be the best fit for the power running game.  He's probably best suited to a zone running scheme, where he can use his vision and quickness to find the holes, as opposed to a power running scheme that relies on linemen moving people so the RB can run in a designated hole. Obviously, even in a power scheme the RB can deviate, not follow the Guard, and run to an opening the play wasn't designed to be run in, but percentage wise it seems more likely for Sanders to have success free-lancing in a zone scheme Stanford does not run. 

Remound Wright appears to have the requisite physical traits to be a good power runner; he's stalky, has a good burst, and good vision.  I was really kind of perplexed why he didn't get more carries in 2012 because he seemed to show the ability to be a big contributor when he did play.  He just needed more opportunities.  I'm not a big Wilkerson fan.  I used to be, but I've concluded he runs too high, is too stiff to change direction effectively, and doesn't have great vision.  He'd be better off putting on weight and being a true straight ahead power back, IMO. 



Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - StannyBoy - 01-24-2013

(01-24-2013, 11:54 AM)Yvonne link Wrote:Why other than based on  his name, does everyone assume Barry Sanders is going to be good? It'd be great if he is, but I'd rather take a wait and see approach. Remember Nick and Nathaniel Montana?

We've got some good backs, and I don't think we're going to be hurting there, but don't assume that it's going to be Sanders.

I remember scouts saying Nick Montana was a horrible QB, as in not D-1 material. Any good scout looked past his UW offer and his ranking on Scout.com. Sanders was dominant in HS. He's going to be very good. Go look at his youtube highlights.

Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - Cardinal96 - 01-24-2013

I don't see next year as a rebuilding year at all.  Nothing compared to last year and what we lost (Luck, DeCastro, Martin, Fleener, etc.).

On defense, I am very excited about what I think will be a nationally elite unit.  Losing Brown surprised me.  Carter is only a freshman and is showing signs of developing into an elite lockdown corner.  I am hopeful that Wayne Lyons will be able to step up and play the other starting CB.  I don't have the depth chart in front of me but I think we get Browning for another year.  Also, I believe Usua Amanam will be back and he is a great nickelback.  For our front seven, I am not sure what else there is to say except we are loaded at LB and I think our front seven will be one of the best in the nation.

On offense, I am cautiously optimistic.  Our QB play should be much better next year.  Hogan will get all of spring practice to take snaps as the first team starter.  He shows great poise.  While he clearly needs work on deep yardage passes, he is pretty accurate in the short-to-mid range game and avoids costly turnovers.  Our offensive line should be an improvement.  Like others, I am optimistic that Peat, Murphy and Garnett will all develop into starters next year and that Yankey can be moved to LG.  Receiver and TE are brobdingnagian question marks, no question.  Ertz was a big loss but, other than that, it is hard to see how we could be much worse than last year.  For running back, my biggest concern is pass protection.  Taylor was very good at that and I am not sure any other RB on our roster can block as well as he can.  We have very talented running backs between Wilkerson, Young and (hopefully) Sanders.

All in all, I am very optimistic about next season.

Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - 97fan - 01-24-2013

Slide made a good point earlier that often gets overlooked.

While we lose eight starters (Stephens, Thomas, Brown, Ertz, Patterson, Terrell, Schwartzstein and Taylor), we only lose two other players from our next 22 (Debniak, Toilolo). And we had -- at least by historical standards at Stanford -- a very deep roster last year.

With the exception of TE and WR, next year's starters will have a ton of experience.

Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - dabigv13 - 01-24-2013

I think Wilkerson has a chance to have a breakout year. He has obvious speed and burst, reminds me of Marshawn Lynch. He's never had the chance to get a solid chunk of carries in a game and establish himself. I'm excited to see what he can do, and if he doesn't establish himself, we have plenty of other capable backs. Wright is one candidate, and Barry J another obvious one. Will be exciting to see what happens.

Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - Cadet84 - 01-24-2013

For those interested, here's a link to a Barry J. highlight video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zMr_5VPNd8

Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - Spiny_Norman - 01-25-2013

(01-24-2013, 02:39 PM)NYCCardinalFan link Wrote:For running back, my biggest concern is pass protection.  Taylor was very good at that and I am not sure any other RB on our roster can block as well as he can.  We have very talented running backs between Wilkerson, Young and (hopefully) Sanders.

I very much agree.  I think that blocking/blitz pickup is a key skill that could determine playing time for the RBs.  Look at our recent top RBs - Gerhart, Taylor, Jeremy Stewart.  Our QBs have enjoyed the protection of some of the most capable blocking RBs anywhere.  Barry J Sanders enters the season with a major disadvantage - he has no live college experience blocking/picking up blitzers.  If he cannot master this skill next year, he could end up being used like Kelsey Young as a specialty back rather than a feature back.  Not saying that as a negative.  #39 provided some fantastic highlights this year.  The first back in years who seems to have a 2nd gear downfield.  But trying to set my expectations appropriately for BJS.

Re: 2013 -- rebuilding year? - oman - 01-25-2013

(01-25-2013, 04:07 PM)Spiny_Norman link Wrote:... But trying to set my expectations appropriately for BJS.

3,500 Stanford career rushing yards?  6 point 3 ypc?