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Update on Director's Cup - Printable Version

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Re: Update on Director's Cup - BigEasyCard - 06-02-2013

To bad that the team which ousted Stanford from the tournament couldn't close the deal on the Gators.  Huskers suffered from two blown calls, one at second and one at third.  I sure hope the five points which the Gators picked up don't provide the margin of victory for the Cup.

If Florida wins again today, the magic number goes from about 95 to 87.  Just this once, I hope my math is wrong!

Re: Update on Director's Cup - BigEasyCard - 06-02-2013

Women's Rowing finished 10th, worth about 35 points.  Since the 10th women's scoring sport right now is lacrosse with 53, no additional points for Stanford.

Meanwhile, in OKC, Texas leads Florida 3-0 after four innings.  Their pitcher Blaire Luna has struck out nine and given up just one hit.  However she has also walked three and hit two batters.

Looks like the Track and Field scenario laid out yesterday by Farm93 will determine the Cup.  At least our athletes will have an opportunity to affect the outcome next weekend.

Geaux Cardinal!

Re: Update on Director's Cup - BigEasyCard - 06-02-2013

In softball, Texas beats Florida 3-0.  Gators earn 78 points leaving the magic number at 95.

Re: Update on Director's Cup - Farm93 - 06-02-2013

(06-02-2013, 12:11 PM)BigEasyCard link Wrote:In softball, Texas beats Florida 3-0.  Gators earn 78 points leaving the magic number at 95.
I would like to be upbeat on this, but Florida T&F M&W will outscore Stanford by more than 95 NACDA points at that meet.  If that is the point difference going into that meet, I would think they can ship that crystal cup to Gainesville now.  I guess we will see, but it does not look good.

Re: Update on Director's Cup - LuckE2Bhere - 06-02-2013

FWIW, Washington just came back to eliminate Michigan in softball too.  I thought the projections indicated that it would be a virtual dead heat if Florida and Stanford both lived up to their seedings down the stretch.  If Florida's baseball and softball teams just took early (for them) exits, aren't we now in the cat bird's seat?

Re: Update on Director's Cup - Viking_Guy - 06-02-2013

To a certain extent, it depends on how NACDA scores Stanford's finish in men's golf - they finished in 7th place in one of 6 regionals, so I was thinking that would be 42nd overall, good for 32 points in a "64 or more team unbracketed" competition, which is also what Men's and Women's T+F will be.  If that holds up, as of right now Stanford is on 1240 points overall.

With both Florida baseball and softball bowing out, the Gators are on 983.5 (+ MGolf 49 + MBB 25 + Softball 78) = 1135.5.

In women's track and field, Stanford will need to finish 21st place or higher to score any points to the good, or they wouldn't improve on the 53 points from women's lacrosse.  Florida is ranked #3, but any points they score on the women's side will be partially offset by losing points in women's cross-country, where they came in 23 for 51 points.

In men's, any points Stanford scores would be to the good.  Last year, they finished with 16 points - and in 10th place overall, good for 67.5 points.  That basically takes 3 or 4 good races by individuals, and if they equal it, there's no way for Florida to catch up - if both the Gators teams win, they would add 149 points to their total.  If Stanford finished with the men in 24th place or higher, there's no way for Florida to overcome the deficit.  Below that, we would need some drop off from them.  Their men were ranked #1, but fell to #4 most recently.  But that doesn't really reflect the nature of the team event, which is so dependent on individual performances over the course of 4 days.

Here's hoping for some good 1500m runs.

VG


Re: Update on Director's Cup - Viking_Guy - 06-02-2013

And for what it's worth, if the streak ends, the blame lies fairly equally on a few of the men's sports - baseball and basketball, but also soccer, and to a lesser extent volleyball and water polo, none of whom made the post-season at all.  Although v-ball and water polo have the problem of small bracket + need to include East Coast teams.  Could whoever did  the analysis of how many Div-I men's lacrosse teams there are repost it, and the relative bracket size of lacrosse versus other regionally dominant sports (ice hockey as well)?

But only scoring in 9 men's sports is what's made it possible for the finish to be this close.

VG


Re: Update on Director's Cup - BigEasyCard - 06-02-2013

VG has summed the situation up very well.

The magic number is now somewhere between 94 and 104 depending on how the NACDA points for Men's Golf are determined.  I used last year's results for my estimate of 94 while VG has used the actual bracket.  I sure hope his estimate is better than mine!

Perhaps someone who knows Track and Field well can weigh in with estimated results based on performances to date or any other relevant methodology.  My crude look at the men's side says that we will be lucky to score 5 NACDA points based on a single eighth place finish.  Team points are earned by the eight top finishers on a scale of 10 8 6 5 4 3 2 1.  Last year one point was good for 5 NACDA points.  Our three male competitors have the 8th, 18th and 20th best times in their respective events.  But if one or more of them peak at the Nationals with new personal records, we could be pleasantly surprised.

This site has great info on the upcoming meet: http://www.ustfccca.org/weekly-results/national-championships-central-outdoor-track-field#d1

BTW, if it weren't for the heroics of Women's Tennis downing favored Florida on the way to their national championship, the Gators could already have safely ordered a new trophy case for the Cup.

Geaux Cardinal!


Re: Update on Director's Cup - terry - 06-03-2013

(06-01-2013, 05:33 PM)BigEasyCard link Wrote:We've been very focused on Florida as our primary competitor for the Cup this year. 

Should we be worried about anyone else?  Michigan, for instance, trails us by 230 points and is guaranteed 73 minimum in softball.

UCLA still has a chance to catch us.

Re: Update on Director's Cup - BobK - 06-03-2013

While men's track with only 3 will have a tough time scoring, big easy you are looking at their times from the Regionals, not there best times.  If Florida out scores us by 100 in all T&F we Might lose.  It's close.

Re: Update on Director's Cup - BigEasyCard - 06-03-2013

(06-03-2013, 08:43 AM)terry link Wrote:UCLA still has a chance to catch us.

Terry, you helped fill lunch hour today, along with our traditional Monday dish of red beans and rice.

UCLA is now at about 1098 as follows:

950 May 30 + 48 M Golf 26th estimate + 38 W Rowing 9th + 64 M Baseball minimum for 9th = 1098.  So Stanford leads them by about 142 using VGs Stanford number of 1240 from yesterday.

They have already scored in 10 women's sports with rowing's 38 as the lowest score.  Their scoring opportunities are 36 more for Baseball, 100 for M T&F, and 62 for W T&F.

UCLA men rank 19th and have four participants for the Nationals.  UCLA women rank 14th and have 6 participants for the Nationals.

As other posters have noted, we have limited scoring opportunities in T&F, but every point counts.

Mathematically the Bruins are still in the hunt, but everything would need to go their way to pass Stanford.

Re: Update on Director's Cup - oman - 06-03-2013

See, isn't competition fun!



Re: Update on Director's Cup - BobK - 06-03-2013

Difficult for men's T&F big easy.  Women were 6th last year and could do that again. 

Re: Update on Director's Cup - fullmetal - 06-03-2013

Can we hope that UCLA and Florida steal each other's T&F points in some form or fashion?  (The enemy of my enemy might still be my enemy.)

Re: Update on Director's Cup - BigEasyCard - 06-05-2013

This article on GoStanford.com provides great background on Stanford's prospects in each event of the NCAA Track Championships which start today:

http://www.gostanford.com/sports/c-track/spec-rel/060413aae.html

It also provides some useful links for event schedules and results.

No mention of the impact of the competition on the Directors Cup, but then we already understand that this competition will determine who wins the Cup.

Geaux Cardinal!

Re: Update on Director's Cup - BigEasyCard - 06-05-2013

Here's a link to a story on the Florida Gators Track & Field outlook for the NCAA meet:

http://www.gatorzone.com/story.php?id=25846

Geaux Cardinal!

Re: Update on Director's Cup - Viking_Guy - 06-05-2013

One other thing: I may have been underestimating the women's T+F ability to improve the overall NACDA score.  With a couple of standouts, they could very definitely finish well above the low 20s and displace Women's Lacrosse's 53 NACDA points.

Every point helps.

VG


Re: Update on Director's Cup - BigEasyCard - 06-05-2013

VG, I had a similar thought.

I used the event notes from the GoStanford.com article to unscientifically handicap a range of likely points for each event and convert those to meet place based on last year and then NACDA points.  For the women, I got a range of 19 to 39 meet points.  This translated to 12th and 3rd place, and 11.5 and 32 net NACDA points respectively after the 53 point offset for women's lacrosse.

BobK seems pretty comfortable with the women matching last year's 6th place performance which would be good for about 20 net NACDA points. 

Reading between the lines, we might even get 5 NACDA points from the men (one 8th place finish).

As you said, every point counts.

Re: Update on Director's Cup - BigEasyCard - 06-08-2013

Today's the day for the Cup to be determined between Stanford and Florida.  My back of the envelope calculations have the Cardinal with about a 40 point Cup advantage after three days of Track & Field. 

But the Gators will improve their places much more than the Cardinal today.  This linked article provides details on each of Florida's remaining six scoring opportunities:

http://www.gatorzone.com/story.php?id=25867

And UCLA is still mathematically alive to take the Cup.  I have them about 80 Cup points behind Stanford.  In addition to T&F, they still have 36 potential points in baseball.

Will the strong performance by the Stanford women in Eugene be enough to keep the Cup in Palo Alto?

Geaux Cardinal!



Re: Update on Director's Cup - BigEasyCard - 06-08-2013

(06-03-2013, 09:43 AM)BobK link Wrote:While men's track with only 3 will have a tough time scoring, big easy you are looking at their times from the Regionals, not there best times.  If Florida out scores us by 100 in all T&F we Might lose.  It's close.

(06-02-2013, 04:56 PM)Viking_Guy link Wrote:To a certain extent, it depends on how NACDA scores Stanford's finish in men's golf - they finished in 7th place in one of 6 regionals, so I was thinking that would be 42nd overall, good for 32 points in a "64 or more team unbracketed" competition, which is also what Men's and Women's T+F will be.  If that holds up, as of right now Stanford is on 1240 points overall.

With both Florida baseball and softball bowing out, the Gators are on 983.5 (+ MGolf 49 + MBB 25 + Softball 78) = 1135.5.

...

VG

BobK and VG summed the situation up really well a few days ago.  Here are a few current details.

If the Florida men don't take first in T&F today and earn 100 Cup points, the Cup almost certainly goes to Stanford. 

The Stanford women lead Florida by 25 meet points to 16.  A competitive race by Kori Carter in the 100m hurdle final would ensure a Stanford margin too large to overcome in their two remaining scoring opportunities.  The Cup would stay at Stanford even if the Gator men earn 100 Cup points.  All eyes on Kori Carter at 3:09 pm today.

Geaux Kori!