Oregon prediction thread - Printable Version
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Re: Oregon prediction thread - OutsiderFan - 10-28-2014
It sure seems to me Stanford is due for a close loss to the Quacks.
The defense may be better this year than last, but does Stanford have a real superstar to make the big plays on D? I'd argue both Trent Murphy and Shayne Skov were instrumental in the last two years. Zach Ertz was a superstar on offense in 2012, and Gaffney carried the team on offense in 2013. I'm not seeing those brobdingnagian impact guys in 2014. Montgomery was suppose to be that guy, but I don't think he has been nearly "the guy" he was suppose to be.
To me, Henry Anderson and David Parry have been the most consistently dominant players on Stanford's team, but they don't touch the ball and don't make plays in space.
Oregon has Mariota, Freeman, Marshall, Allen, and Ekpre-Olomu as big-time play makers, and they have more than just these guys too. Just really hard for me to see Stanford scoring enough and continuing the less than 30 points streak with an offense that can't run the ball.
Trees 20
Fowl 31
Re: Oregon prediction thread - fullmetal - 10-28-2014
A post from behind enemy lines on how kal stacked up with Oregon: http://www.californiagoldenblogs.com/2014/10/28/7079095/a-golden-spotlight-on-cal-vs-oregon
If the kal defense can do that to Oregon, so can Stanford. Should we wonder about whether Stanford's offense can duplicate some of kal's offensive success against Oregon as well? I admit, some of those GIFs showed some stout pass protection up front...
Re: Oregon prediction thread - CTcard - 10-28-2014
(10-28-2014, 10:59 AM)leftcoast link Wrote:I hope I'm wrong but when I read the tea leaves from last Saturday's game I don't get as excited as some here. Turnovers, penalties and missed kicks can kill a team ...
Well, Stanford only had 3 penalties for 20 yards - a season low on both counts.
And on the year, Stanford has second fewest penalties/gm and penalty yds/gm in the conference.
As for the rest, well ...Â
Re: Oregon prediction thread - martyup - 10-28-2014
The line is down to 7.5. We blew up the spread last week. So . . .
Re: Oregon prediction thread - BostonCard - 10-28-2014
(10-28-2014, 01:09 PM)CTcard link Wrote:[quote author=leftcoast link=topic=11004.msg103753#msg103753 date=1414519151]
I hope I'm wrong but when I read the tea leaves from last Saturday's game I don't get as excited as some here. Turnovers, penalties and missed kicks can kill a team ...
Well, Stanford only had 3 penalties for 20 yards - a season low on both counts.
And on the year, Stanford has second fewest penalties/gm and penalty yds/gm in the conference.
As for the rest, well ...
[/quote]
I looked up your numbers, and sure enough, we are ranked second in the pac-12 in penalties per game (6.1) and penalty yards per game (53 yds/game), behind only ASU. I was wondering why the disconnect between the perceived problems (penalties are killing us) and reality. It turns out that compared to last year, we do, in fact, have more penalties per game (6.1 vs. 5.3) and penalty yards per game (53 vs. 45), but it looks like penalties are up for the entire pac-12. Last year, despite better numbers, we ranked 5th in penalties per game and 4th in penalty yards per game. I'm not going to average things up, but it seems likely that the refs are calling more penalties than last year (or maybe teams are less disciplined than they used to be, though I doubt that).
BC
Re: Oregon prediction thread - Treebound - 10-28-2014
Do they track in conference penalty stats, BC? I'm very surprised by this stat and am thinking that Davis and Army are making us look good. Yes, I know most teams pad the schedule, but I would have thought we were more middle of the Pac on penalties.Â
Re: Oregon prediction thread - BostonCard - 10-28-2014
The rankings aren't split up that way, but the numbers can be broken down. I don't feel like going through each school, so he is the breadkdown for Stanford.
Vs. conference 6.6 penalties per game; 57.6 penalty yards per game
vs. non-conference 4.3 penalties per game, 45.3 penalty yards per game
It is worth noting that in the last two games, things have gotten a bit better. After posting 8, 9, and 9 penalties against Washington, Notre Dame, and Washington State, respectively, we've put up 5 and 3 penalties against ASU and OSU. Probably too little data to know if it is a trend, but I hope it is. We can't afford many penalties against Oregon.
BC
Re: Oregon prediction thread - Hulk01 - 10-29-2014
Seems odd to suggest that Devon Allen makes big plays on our guys don't Cajuste is averaging more 10+ and 20+ plays per game than Allen.Â
Re: Oregon prediction thread - Oasis - 10-29-2014
(10-28-2014, 12:52 AM)Papa John link Wrote:Leland Stanford Junior University: 31
The University that nearly closed in 1881 because of a debt of $8,182 until railroad magnate Henry Villard donated $7,000 to pay down the debt, and the faculty took a 25 percent salary cut: 27
We also got our share of railroad baron money. I don't see us winning this one, but hope springs eternal.
Re: Oregon prediction thread - Papa John - 10-29-2014
Well done, Oasis! I was wondering if anyone would catch that railroad magnate reference. I have no idea how Saturday's game will turn out, but I am positive that our robber baron could kick the *ss of their robber baron.
Re: Oregon prediction thread - 82 Card - 10-29-2014
(10-29-2014, 08:38 AM)Oasis link Wrote:[quote author=Papa John link=topic=11004.msg103724#msg103724 date=1414482776]
Leland Stanford Junior University: 31
The University that nearly closed in 1881 because of a debt of $8,182 until railroad magnate Henry Villard donated $7,000 to pay down the debt, and the faculty took a 25 percent salary cut: 27
We also got our share of railroad baron money. I don't see us winning this one, but hope springs eternal.
[/quote]
The problem was not that they got railroad magnate money. It was that they barely got enough to stay open.                                  Â
Re: Oregon prediction thread - FarmBoy - 10-30-2014
Gawd, I have no idea. Winning three in a row against UO, with 2 of those in Eugene, during the current Duck regime seems completely unlikely. Luckily the outcome Saturday is independent of the past wins... (mostly)
I'm going with my head, not my heart:
Incubator with a football team - 20
Football team with the school rated #7 for reefer madness attached - 35
Re: Oregon prediction thread - Kathy - 10-30-2014
Stanford 35
Oregon 31
Re: Oregon prediction thread - Bruce Wang - 10-30-2014
Mondavis 24
Adelsheims 20
Our score would be higher if not for missed field goals.
Re: Oregon prediction thread - thunder_chik - 10-30-2014
I wish i could confidently predict a win for us...but we are playing on their turf after spoiling their last two seasons. Remember last year we ran up a sizeable lead and then almost lost it even though we had the ball something like 43 minutes...
Stanford 21, Quacks 31.
Re: Oregon prediction thread - pcgoode - 10-30-2014
I've been watching some of the Ducks games from this season over the last few weeks. Here are some of my obersvations.
1. The Ducks defense isn't very good. From what I saw in the games, they have problems with open field tackling, their db's aren't great (even Ekpre-Olomu is inconsisent), and their lb's aren't nearly what they were a few years ago with Kiko Alonso, Dion Jordan and Micheal Clay. At times their dline hasn't been very impressive either, and I understand that it is also having some health issues. Their starting NT Alex Baducci may not play against us and this marks the first week that Arik Armstead is back after an ankle injury. My eye test observations are backed up by the stats - they rank 11th in the conference to date (http://www.cfbstats.com/2014/leader/905/team/defense/split01/category10/sort01.html). If Hogan and the Oline have good games (they don't need to be perfect, and Arizona certainly was not when they beat them this year in Eugene), then I can see us scoring 30 plus points on these guys.
2. If the Ducks can get their run game working, look out - they will score a lot of points. That being said, they haven't had much success against us for a couple of years now. The wildcard to me is whether Parry is back - if he plays and plays close to his normal effective game, I think we can slow them down sufficinetly. If not, I'd be very concerned.
3. The Ducks passing game is good, but they are by no means perfect. Mariotta is clearly a first rate passer, but I don't think his receivers are as good as they have been in previous years. The receivers aren't always running the routes that Mariotta ends up throwing to.
4. I'm not sure the Ducks Oline will be ready for our front seven. Their guards don't seem to me to be that effective in either pass protection or run blocking, so I can see us exploiting that. Kalambayi may have a field day with some delayed blitzes up the middle.Â
Assuming that either Parry plays effectively or Phillips steps up and fills in well, and that Hogan and the Oline plays well (but not perfectly), then I think we win comfortably. If either of those assumptions don't hold, then I think we lose. I am going to be optimistic on the basis that we have played well against the Ducks for the last couple of years, so I say we win 32 to 20.
Update: Drukarev tweeting that Shaw said Parry is "on the better side of questionable", and that he looked good moving w/out pads [yesterday].
Re: Oregon prediction thread - Durty Nelly - 10-30-2014
Cards 24
Ducks 23
Re: Oregon prediction thread - SUBuddha - 10-30-2014
I too have been watching the Duck's games, their highly touted secondary strikes me as over rated, and they are using more power runs that play to Stanford's strength.
I feel iffy on the game, I could see Stanford getting blown out, but I think they win this one.
Stanford 27
Oregon 21
Re: Oregon prediction thread - SamAtoms1980 - 10-30-2014
Oregon 35, Stanford 18
Re: Oregon prediction thread - PrinceLightfoot - 10-30-2014
Stanford 30
Oregon 24