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Re: Looking ahead - OutsiderFan - 12-02-2014

What happens with Fanaika?  First of all, is he now healthy enough for bowl practices?  Does he push to take over at RG?  Is he tried out at NT?

Re: Looking ahead - washingtonismoney - 12-02-2014

Don't see a reason to flip Fanaika on defense, given that interior line was a big problem for us in 2014. I'm a bit wary of position flips given our mixed record over the years. (And even our most successful flip -- Austin Hooper -- actually played the position in high school, though my understanding was that he was primarily a 4-3 DE.)

Re: Looking ahead - OutsiderFan - 12-02-2014

Sione Fua and David Parry both transitioned from OG to NT with aplomb, and I'm pretty sure Brian Bulcke made the move from OL to DL as well.

Though the idea of having Fanaika and Garnett at the Guards does sound appealing, the DL lacks the big bodies needed to compete for a championship in 2015, as it seems currently constructed.  I have no idea if Fanaika can make such a transition, but if he can, he'd be more valuable to the team on defense, IMO.


Re: Looking ahead - Hulk01 - 12-02-2014

If Fanaika can merely spell our starting NT, he would be more valuable there than stealing the OG job from Caspers, who settled down in the second half of the season and has a full year of starting experience.  We're just ridiculously thin on the DL, with no obvious candidate at the nose--starter or backup.

Re: Looking ahead - StanfordIndians1 - 12-02-2014

Alexander gained valuable experience.  He stepped in the fire and played well for the most part. I also have heard Lloyd is close to passing if not equal to Whitfield.  He has made plays in the limited time he has received-I like that as someone pointed out that if he can run down Oregon States WR then maybe he is at the wrong position- he is bigger and faster and by now is accustomed to the position, especially with Akina coaching all them up the DB unit should be a great bunch-no worries there.  Barton wont be ready to go for a year.  Has to get his body back from mission, just like Fanaika wasn't ready and got injured.  But I see Fainika at 320 lbs being a great NT and helping with the DL.  He has quick feet and good upper body strength.  Not as strong as Parry, but quicker movement and hands IMO.

I agree with most and think the DB's will be fine (remember people were worried this Spring and they have been great)...the LB'ers will be solid;  a little work on the DL and we will be fine.  Hogan is coming back 99%.  WR's are solid even w/out TY (as pointed out UCLA example and having to spread the ball around).  Experience line, Garnett is 90% staying he isn't ready and Peat is 95% gone IMO;  why wouldn't he take the $$$.  If they open the offense up a bit and be more aggressive, with 7 home games I see us as an early 9-3 or 10-2 team. 

Go Cardinal!

I als

Re: Looking ahead - CTcard - 12-02-2014

(12-02-2014, 03:44 PM)StanfordIndians1 link Wrote:Peat is 95% gone IMO;  why wouldn't he take the $$$.

And why wouldn't Andrew Luck (or even Marcus Mariota) take the even more $$$?

It all depends upon what they wish to do, and to know what Peat wishes to do would require knowing him (or at least having heard him say something on the topic). 


Re: Looking ahead - stupac2 - 12-02-2014

(12-02-2014, 06:47 PM)CTcard link Wrote:And why wouldn't Andrew Luck (or even Marcus Mariota) take the even more $$$?

It all depends upon what they wish to do, and to know what Peat wishes to do would require knowing him (or at least having heard him say something on the topic).

Yeah, I don't get why people always assume that everyone takes the money after Junior year when it really doesn't happen all that often. More underclassmen are declaring for the draft in recent years, but it's still not a brobdingnagian number (98 last year and that was a record high). I'm unaware on numbers for true juniors, but it can't be all that many.

Also, wasn't there chatter about Yankey, Martin, and DeCastro all potential candidates to leave as Juniors? None did. I can see thinking that someone like Peat is a 50-50 chance, but no way I'd put any other true junior that high, because Peat's the only one who's still consensus first-rounder (though according to my draftnik friend he's a "mid-to-late first", I can see wanting to bump that up to "high first").

Re: Looking ahead - Stymie - 12-03-2014

I hope Peat stays, but IF he is guaranteed (i.e.  2-3 "promises" from those holding 25-32 1st round picks) to be a low 1st rounder and even if he (and the scouts) think he can be a 1-8 1st rounder next year, it is a no-brainer to go into the draft.  Why?

1.  If he goes this year he most likely goes to a solid team (excluding bottom feeders who might have traded down).  A solid team will more likely develop him rather than throw him into the fire prematurely.
2.  If he goes low 1st round he will spend 2015 practising with and learning from professionals, rather than student athletes.  Come 2016 he should be far better prepared to play significant minutes with a good team than if he stayed at the Farm.
3.  If he waits and goes high next year he will most likely be drafted by a bottom-feeder (i.e. somebody with dire needs and poorer overall squad talent), and may be thrown into the fire before he is ready.
4.  I doubt if the package he would get in 2015 (assuming 25-32 1st round) would be significantly worse than what he would get in 2016 (assuming 1-8 1st round).
5.  A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Stymie

Re: Looking ahead - FarmBoy - 12-03-2014

Add to Stymie's list:
7. the value of a contract year at the end of his career may end up being more valuable than a rookie contract year. Assuming he has limited "snaps" or chronological years to play, he'd be trading a year at the end of his career, potentially peak earning power, to play for free.

Still, I think a lot of these guys look at the 40 year decision that was emphasized during recruiting and will see the value of the fallback option of a Stanford degree. Of course, that assumes Peat isn't graduating in 3 years and is on track to graduate in 4.

Re: Looking ahead - Stymie - 12-03-2014

Thanks for the implied props, Farmboy, and thanks for saving my number 6. for me!

6.  Expected value.  The average career of an NFL player is ~3 years.  For 1st round choices I'm sure it is higher (enlighten me someone as to what the number is).  That being said, even if Peat's number is 10 years, that mean has a spread from probably 1 to 15 years.  Then you have to factor in his risk/reward preferences, in theory.  For example:

--will I prefer to risk getting pancaked by some 380 lb. college behemoth and break my leg before I even get to the 2016 draft, or will I take the money that will be on the table in 2015?
--agent A tells me that I can get X if I go early, but agent B tells me that I can get 2X if I stay and really star in 2015.  Which bird is in the hand and which is in the bush?
--do I really want to leave the Farm early?  Do I want to tell my best friends and my favorite Profs that they are history?  Do I really want to leave without a degree?
--am I ready for the real world, or not?
--if I enter the real world a year later am I better off or worse off, in the long run?

I've been there and so is my eldest daughter as we "speak."  Neither of us ever had to worry about breaking a leg, but each of us was/is conflicted when we searched our hearts at this age.....



Re: Looking ahead - CTcard - 12-03-2014

(12-03-2014, 07:02 AM)Stymie link Wrote:--will I prefer to risk getting pancaked by some 380 lb. college behemoth and break my leg before I even get to the 2016 draft, or will I take the money that will be on the table in 2015?
--agent A tells me that I can get X if I go early, but agent B tells me that I can get 2X if I stay and really star in 2015.  Which bird is in the hand and which is in the bush?
--do I really want to leave the Farm early?  Do I want to tell my best friends and my favorite Profs that they are history?  Do I really want to leave without a degree?
--am I ready for the real world, or not?
--if I enter the real world a year later am I better off or worse off, in the long run?

I've been there and so is my eldest daughter as we "speak."  Neither of us ever had to worry about breaking a leg, but each of us was/is conflicted when we searched our hearts at this age.....

I think your list contradicts your original contention that it is a "no brainer" that Peat go to the NFL now.

Pretty clearly some make each decision. Either is reasonable. Hard to predict what an individual will opt for without knowing them.

Re: Looking ahead - Stymie - 12-03-2014

CTCard

"No brainer" if he is risk averse.  Much more complex if he is a budding strategist.

Re: Looking ahead - Nan3cy - 12-03-2014

(12-03-2014, 08:11 AM)Stymie link Wrote:CTCard

"No brainer" if he is risk averse.  Much more complex if he is a budding strategist.

If he's risk averse, given the medical information coming out these days, would he be playing football at all, let alone on the offensive line?

Re: Looking ahead - CrazedZooChimp - 12-03-2014

I'm pretty sure if a team drafts a tackle in the first round, even a good team, they expect him to play early on.  Of course, DeCastro didn't, but that was because he blew out his ACL in the pre-season...

Re: Looking ahead - OutsiderFan - 12-03-2014

(12-03-2014, 11:19 AM)CrazedZooChimp link Wrote:I'm pretty sure if a team drafts a tackle in the first round, even a good team, they expect him to play early on.  Of course, DeCastro didn't, but that was because he blew out his ACL in the pre-season...

He had a torn medial collateral ligament and dislocated knee cap, if you're scoring at home.  He actually ended up playing in four games that, his rookie season.


Re: Looking ahead - BostonCard - 12-03-2014

(12-03-2014, 11:34 AM)OutsiderFan link Wrote:[quote author=CrazedZooChimp link=topic=11257.msg107305#msg107305 date=1417630762]
I'm pretty sure if a team drafts a tackle in the first round, even a good team, they expect him to play early on.  Of course, DeCastro didn't, but that was because he blew out his ACL in the pre-season...

He had a torn medial collateral ligament and dislocated knee cap, if you're scoring at home.  He actually ended up playing in four games that, his rookie season.
[/quote]

Also, if you are scoring at home, DeCastro is a Guard, not a Tackle, though perhaps Chimp meant to write "... if a team drafts an offensive lineman in the first round..."

BC

Re: Looking ahead - CrazedZooChimp - 12-03-2014

(12-03-2014, 11:59 AM)Boston Card link Wrote:[quote author=OutsiderFan link=topic=11257.msg107306#msg107306 date=1417631681]
[quote author=CrazedZooChimp link=topic=11257.msg107305#msg107305 date=1417630762]
I'm pretty sure if a team drafts a tackle in the first round, even a good team, they expect him to play early on.  Of course, DeCastro didn't, but that was because he blew out his ACL in the pre-season...

He had a torn medial collateral ligament and dislocated knee cap, if you're scoring at home.  He actually ended up playing in four games that, his rookie season.
[/quote]

Also, if you are scoring at home, DeCastro is a Guard, not a Tackle, though perhaps Chimp meant to write "... if a team drafts an offensive lineman in the first round..."

BC
[/quote]

Ahh yeah, well, I was thinking of linemen we've had drafted in the range of 16-32 or so.  And yes, I remember he came back later in the year.  But still the point being that NFL teams tend to want to play their first round draft picks, and I think especially on the line where there always seems to be a dearth of good players.

I guess looking away from Stanford, Justin Pugh was drafted at 19 in 2013, started all 16 games for the Giants.  Ja'Wuan James was drafted also at 19 this year, and has started every game for the Dolphins.  Tackles don't get drafted in round 1 as backups, unless they end up sucking.

The point is, if Peat goes he's not getting a year of training.  If he gets drafted early it's because someone wants him to be ready to go, and he's getting thrown into the fire.  He probably could do that, and he will get drafted if he declares, but it isn't necessarily the best for his long term football career.

Re: Looking ahead - StanFan88 - 12-04-2014

I don't hold out high hopes for next season:
- There could be as few as two returning starters on defense.  That's a LOT of holes to fill.
- Likely that Hogan will remain the starting QB without an open competition in spring ball (BIG mistake IMnsHO)
- Still no bell cow RB that allows the team to effectively run the offense it wants to run
- Highly likely that Peat is gone

What would make me more optimistic:
- New OC from outside the program who will simplify the playbook like Coach Anderson has done with the defense and tailor gameplans to the personnel on the field
- New QB coach
- Open competition for starting QB in spring practice
- Recruit and play a bell cow RB (low likelihood he plays)
- Carter stays

Unfortunately I don't hold out much hope for more than one or two of those five things happening

Re: Looking ahead - teejers1 - 12-05-2014

1.  Peat is gone (unfortunately);
2.  Ditto Carter;
3.  New OC unlikely as HC thinks "all is well" after 2 Ws to end the season (this is biggest disappointment of all);
4.  Don't need to have a BIG BACK to have a very good to great offense (see Rose Bowl under Husak and Seattle Bowl teams) - Willingham/Diedrick ran very productive pro style offense.  IMO, that should be the goal for Stanford, and it's the HC's job to find an OC that can implement that kind of offense (and let him do it);
5.  Perry, Anderson, Tarpley, Carter, Richards, Vaughters . . . the losses on D are substantial; and
6.  You all are underestimating Jordan Williamson, who I think is probably Stanford's best all time placekicker.  It wouldn't surprise me if JW plays in the NFL for a long time.  Of course, getting your foot in the door, so to speak, is a brobdingnagian part of any kicker's tenure in the NFL.  In other words, there is a decent amount of luck involved.

Re: Looking ahead - BobK - 12-05-2014

Why is Peat now gone after stories/ rumors he will be back?