The CardBoard
Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft - Printable Version

+- The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board)
+-- Forum: C-House! (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-4.html)
+--- Forum: The CardBoard (https://thecardboard.org/board/forum-5.html)
+--- Thread: Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft (/thread-9192.html)

Pages: 1 2

Re: Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft - terry - 05-09-2015

I wonder whether Teyo's departure had something to do with his feelings about playing for Buddy Teevens and David Kelly. He left after Teevens' first year.

Re: Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft - CTcard - 05-09-2015

(05-09-2015, 03:52 PM)terry link Wrote:I wonder whether Teyo's departure had something to do with his feelings about playing for Buddy Teevens and David Kelly.

Rumors were both that he didn't want to go to TE - which supposedly was the coaches plan and that he thought Buddy was a twit.
Presumably related issues.

Re: Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft - Rally - 05-09-2015

(05-09-2015, 03:52 PM)terry link Wrote:I wonder whether Teyo's departure had something to do with his feelings about playing for Buddy Teevens and David Kelly. He left after Teevens' first year.

His brother told me he left because of Teevins.

Re: Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft - winflop - 05-09-2015

Sorry but Hogan will be lucky to be drafted at all.  Yes he's been the QB for a lot of victories, but Stanford didn't win a single game last season where he threw more than 25 passes.  I know that Stanford ran the ball a whole bunch in the second half of some games to control possession/clock, but the reality is that he hasn't shown that he has the ability to win games with his arm.  Doesn't mean he can't lead Stanford to another 10+ win season, but it does mean that NFL teams will not be very interested if he's the reason they win.

Re: Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 05-09-2015

(05-09-2015, 07:03 PM)winflop link Wrote:Sorry but Hogan will be lucky to be drafted at all.  Yes he's been the QB for a lot of victories, but Stanford didn't win a single game last season where he threw more than 25 passes.  I know that Stanford ran the ball a whole bunch in the second half of some games to control possession/clock, but the reality is that he hasn't shown that he has the ability to win games with his arm.  Doesn't mean he can't lead Stanford to another 10+ win season, but it does mean that NFL teams will not be very interested if he's the reason they win.
Hogan will be a 2nd-3rd round pick assuming he doesn't embarrass himself this season.  The NFL throws logic out the window when it comes to drafting QBs, especially 6'4" 225+ lb intelligent, mobile QBs with big arms who win a lot of bowl games.

Re: Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft - dabigv13 - 05-09-2015

I'd like to introduce you to Mr. Brett Hundley, recent 5th round selection of the Green Bay Packer.

Re: Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft - winflop - 05-09-2015

(05-09-2015, 07:41 PM)dabigv link Wrote:I'd like to introduce you to Mr. Brett Hundley, recent 5th round selection of the Green Bay Packer.

Hundley has won games with his arm, Hogan has not.

Hogan has all the attributes to be an NFL QB, but he has not shown that he can win games on HIS ability rather than those around him.

Re: Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft - CTcard - 05-09-2015

(05-09-2015, 07:29 PM)ThePassionOfTheChryst link Wrote:Hogan will be a 2nd-3rd round pick assuming he doesn't embarrass himself this season.  The NFL throws logic out the window when it comes to drafting QBs, especially 6'4" 225+ lb intelligent, mobile QBs with big arms who win a lot of bowl games.

I have no idea what will happen with Hogan, but an interesting comparison is Zach Metternberger out of LSU who was drafted in the 6th round a year ago by the Titans.

Mettenberger, 6'5" 244 lbs
Year 1: 8-11, 73%, 92 yds, 8.4 yds/att, 1 TD, 0 INT; 2 runs, 28 yds
Year 2: 207-352, 59%, 2609 yds, 7,4 yds/att, 12 TD, 7 INT; 47 runs, -208 yds
Year 3: 192-296, 65%, 3082 yds, 10.4 yds/att, 22 TD, 8 INT; 34 runs, -133 yds
Career Record: 20-6

Hogan, 6'4"  228 lbs
Year 1: 109-152, 72%, 1096 yds, 7.9 yds/att, 9 TD, 3 INT; 55 runs, 263yds
Year 2: 180-295, 61%, 2630 yds, 8.9 yds/att, 20 TD, 10 INT; 84 runs, 385 yds
Year 3: 232-352, 66%, 2792 yds, 7.2 yds/att, 19 TD, 9 INT; 91 runs, 295 yds
Year 4: TBD
Career Record: 25-8


Hogan's biggest liability might be too many years on tape for scouts to pick apart - perhaps showing he hasn't lived up to the ceiling that might be imagined. Well, other than that throwing motion.
On the other hand, a good year 4 with his size, mobility, smarts, and winning record might look pretty good to some NFL teams.


Re: Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft - dabigv13 - 05-09-2015

(05-09-2015, 07:56 PM)winflop link Wrote:[quote author=dabigv link=topic=12109.msg118022#msg118022 date=1431225702]
I'd like to introduce you to Mr. Brett Hundley, recent 5th round selection of the Green Bay Packer.

Hundley has won games with his arm, Hogan has not.

Hogan has all the attributes to be an NFL QB, but he has not shown that he can win games on HIS ability rather than those around him.
[/quote]

I think you missed my point. The previous poster basically described Brett Hundley, who I think most agree is a better a pro prospect than Hogan, and said they get picked in the 2nd or 3rd round.

Very hard to imagine Hogan being more than a late round selection or free agent pick up.

Re: Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft - winflop - 05-09-2015

LSU won twice in 2013 with him throwing 30 passes (ok one was 29) - TCU & Miss St.

Re: Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 05-09-2015

All good points.  I'm not a big Hogan guy and I wouldn't want my NFL team drafting him, I've just been watching the draft for too many years to think he will slide too far.  It all depends on how this season shakes out of course.

Well, it will be interesting... - Mick - 05-10-2015

...if the following occur:

1)  Hogan picks up where he left off.  His last three games of the year at K@l, at UCLA and against Maryland at a bowl game were, by far, his highest adjusted QBR rated games.  They were 93.6, 99.0 and 91.3, respectively.  He had an 88 against Oregon State, two other games in the 70s, the rest were below 70.  In those three games, he completed over 75% of his passes, threw for four TDs and one INT and ran for his second, third and fourth highest averages/totals of the season.

2)  If Hogan looks himself in the mirror and says "this season will cost me millions of dollars if I f it up.  I resolve to be as sharp as I possibly can."  Then focuses, completely, on football.

3)  If an incoming WR lights it up.  Just sayin'...

If those three things happen, second round pick minimum.  If they don't, free agent.  I don't think there's an in-between.


Re: Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft - dabomb1227 - 05-10-2015

Comparing Hogan to Mettenberger may make some sense on those statistics, but they are totally different players.  Mettenberger lacks functional mobility and has a big arm for the deep ball, but poor accuracy.  Hogan is athletically gifted but has some throwing issues as well.

Hogan will most likely be drafted because he has the "frame" of a QB and has added functional mobility.  He will need to clean up his mechanics (something discussed often with him), but he shows enough potential to be drafted (the last 3 games of last year show a lot of potential).  I also believe that while he might not be as good as he was those last 3 games all year, he will be substantially better as a result of Montgomery being gone.  I love Ty as a player, but this will be addition by subtraction for the offense as we will no longer be trying to force feed him the ball.

As they say, all you need is one team to fall in love with you to get drafted and I am sure that will happen with Hogan.


Re: Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 05-10-2015

(05-10-2015, 07:08 AM)dabomb1227 link Wrote:I also believe that while he might not be as good as he was those last 3 games all year, he will be substantially better as a result of Montgomery being gone.  I love Ty as a player, but this will be addition by subtraction for the offense as we will no longer be trying to force feed him the ball.
This was big.  Once Ty came out it was almost as if Hogan felt liberated to spread the ball around.

Re: Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft - Hulk01 - 05-10-2015

Since 2009, only four Pac-12 QBs who ranked in the conference top five for passing rating have not been drafted.

The first of those four, Steven Threet of ASU,  never got the chance.  He quit before his senior year after four concussions.

The second and third QBs not to be drafted, Keith Price and  Taylor Kelly, are 6-0 and  6-1.5 respectively .

The only Pac 12 QB in that group with adequate NFL QB size who was not drafted was Oregon’s Darron Thomas (He was 6-3, 220).  He had no experience running a pro-type offense, came out a year early, and was widely known as a “system quarterback.”

Over that same stretch, the NFL drafted QBs Brad Sorensen, Zay Dysert, B.J.  Daniels, Ricky Stanzi, T.J. Yates, Nathan Enderle, Tyrod Taylor, and Trevor Siemian.  Decent QB prospects, particularly big ones, get drafted.

Hogan ranked 4th in the conference for passer rating in 2013 and 5th last season.  In both seasons he rated well ahead of Oregon State’s Sean Mannion, who was drafted this year. 

And he's fared well in big games. He's quarterbacked two teams to a Pac-12 championship and two of this three teams to bowl wins, one of them a Rose Bowl, and led a three-quarter rout of Oregon in a hostile Autzen Stadium.

You can predict that Hogan won’t get drafted.  But if you are willing to bet on that, please call me. 

Re: Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft - CTcard - 05-10-2015

(05-10-2015, 07:08 AM)dabomb1227 link Wrote:Comparing Hogan to Mettenberger may make some sense on those statistics, but they are totally different players.  Mettenberger lacks functional mobility and has a big arm for the deep ball, but poor accuracy.  Hogan is athletically gifted but has some throwing issues as well.

I compared them partly because a couple of their seasons were eerily similar statistically, but also because of where they are similar and where they differ.
Both are big guys - Mettenberger bigger.
Both have good long balls - probably Mettenberger better but it is a Hogan strength.
Both have had accuracy issues at times.
Neither throw the ball a lot in college, relatively speaking.
But, one key difference is Hogan can move and Mettenberger can't. That's worth something.
And of course another - Hogan's throwing motion is far messier. 

(05-09-2015, 07:03 PM)winflop link Wrote:Sorry but Hogan will be lucky to be drafted at all.  Yes he's been the QB for a lot of victories, but Stanford didn't win a single game last season where he threw more than 25 passes. 
Quote:LSU won twice in 2013 with him throwing 30 passes (ok one was 29) - TCU & Miss St.

Games in which the winning QB threw over 25 passes.
Hogan in 2014
vs Army 20-28, vs UW 17-26, vs WSU 23-35, vs OSU 18-27
Mettenberger in 2013
vs TCU 16-32, vs Miss State 25-29

Re: Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft - Hulk01 - 05-11-2015

Kalambayi is a freak.

For context, here are the combine marks--40, shuttle, and vertical--for two recent star Stanford linebackers:
Thomas  4.87----4.31----32"
Murphy    4.85----4.20----35.5"

And Kalambayi's marks in the 2012 Nike combine:
Kalambayi  4.52----4.19----37.5"---and a 44" powerball toss

And Joey Alfiieri's oft-mentioned, top 10 performance and Nike's The Opening:
Alfieri    4.68----4.06----33"---and a 42" powerball toss

Just for comparison, look at how Kalambayi compares to Ty Montgomery--honestly:
Montgomery  4.55----4.21----40.5"

These two guys, along with Solomon Thomas, represent a new breed of athlete for Stanford football. Here are Thomas's marks.  Bear in mind they're for a 265 pound guy:
Thomas    4.95----4.25----36.7"-----44" powerball

It's a new day here. . .



Re: Pac-12 prospects for next year's draft - ThePassionOfTheChryst - 05-11-2015

Barring injury, Kalambayi could become an absolutely elite pass rusher.  His nose for the QB as a RS Frosh was most impressive.