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RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - dabigv13 - 12-24-2025

Welp, this big rainstorm seems to have found it's way through my roof into my bedroom, and I can't even blame it on Santa Claus! Hopefully he can bring me some good recommendations for roofing contractors...

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - BostonCard - 12-24-2025

Oh no!  I’m so sorry.

BC

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - newguy - 12-24-2025

(12-24-2025, 02:59 PM)Goose Wrote:  Santa Barbara is really getting hit last night/today. At one point, over 4.6 inches in a six hour period.

i was living on West Junipero St., right across from Oak Park, when Mission Creek overflowed its banks back in the 90's.  
that was some night.

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - M T - 01-02-2026

California Dept of Water Resources first measurement (Dec. 30) of the snow pack indicates it is at 71% of normal for this date statewide (Dec. 31: Northern Sierra/Trinity at 50%; Central Sierra at 70%; Southern Sierra at 91%).

"Major reservoirs statewide are currently 123 percent of average thanks to recent precipitation on top of three consecutive years of above-average snowpack conditions."

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - BostonCard - 01-06-2026

Sierra snowpack has almost caught up to expected averages for this time of year.

https://mymotherlode.com/news/local/10368103/weekend-snow-pushes-sierra-nevada-closer-to-100-of-average.html/amp

I think we are headed towards a drier rest of the month, and there is still a lot of time left until the April 1 end of the water year.

BC

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Papa John - 01-06-2026

I know that this thread has mostly focused on Northern California/Sierra Nevada, but Santa Barbara County--where I've lived since 2000--reports that the county has already exceeded its "normal water-year" rainfall:

https://files.countyofsb.org/pwd/hydrology/Rainfall%20Reports/rainfallreport.pdf

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Mick - 01-06-2026

.xlsx CA_Rainfall_WYTD_Regional_Risk_Summary.xlsx Size: 6.05 KB  Downloads: 14


RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Papa John - 01-06-2026

Mick, do you have a source for that regional risk summary?

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Leftcoast - 01-06-2026

Here's an alternate source covering the warmer winter precipitation in late 2025 and the impact on the state's water supply.  This mostly supports Mick's risk profile with an emphasis on the Central Valley/Fresno but but adds some color on NorCal reservoirs and relatively low snow pack due to warmer rain in the lower Sierras.

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/california/article314184905.html

(Note, this may be paywalled BUT I was able to read the full article using Incognito Mode.)

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - M T - 01-06-2026

(01-06-2026, 12:45 PM)Papa John Wrote:  Mick, do you have a source for that regional risk summary?

And the date of that information, and what "Typical status" is supposed to mean.
I don't buy its characterizations if that table is supposed to mean current (2025-2026) status.

For instance, LA County Season Total is pretty close to Season Average across the county but that spreadsheet puts it Below Normal.
NOAAs drought info has essentially all of California as having no drought.
California Water Watch shows statewide rain as 156% of normal (59% of full year), with almost no areas less than normal.

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Leftcoast - 01-06-2026

California Water Watch is always a good resource. 

My summary - Rainwater in good shape, Reservoirs OK in most of the state with some concerns in the large Northern Reservoirs but much better than in past drought years, some work to do in snowpack, particularly at lower elevations but much better than previous years.  

Ground water is a concern in the Central Valley particularly in the South/East quadrant.  Not a surprise as this has been a 50 year issue and some of the cities their are addicted to pumping despite efforts to develop other water sources.

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - BostonCard - 01-06-2026

Lake Shasta gained 30 feet with the latest storm!

https://www.sfchronicle.com/california/article/weather-rain-shasta-reservoir-21279869.php

BC

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Mick - 01-06-2026

(01-06-2026, 12:45 PM)Papa John Wrote:  Mick, do you have a source for that regional risk summary?

I. Primary, Authoritative Data Sources (Observed Precipitation)
These are the core systems used by hydrologists, state agencies, and climate scientists.
1. NOAA / RCC ACIS (Applied Climate Information System)
2. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
3. NOAA COOP / GHCN-Daily Station Network
II. Normals, Baselines & Climate Context
These sources establish what “normal” means for the exact date range (10/1 → 1/5).
4. NOAA Climate Normals (1991–2020)
5. Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC)
6. California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC – NOAA)
III. California-Specific Water & Climate Agencies
Used to ground-truth and interpret risk, not to replace NOAA data.
7. California Department of Water Resources (DWR)
8. California Data Exchange Center (CDEC)
9. California Climate Tracker (UC / State collaboration)
IV. Supplemental / Analytical Cross-Checks
These are not primary data but help validate spatial patterns.
10. PRISM Climate Group (Oregon State University)
11. NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL)
12. National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices (CA)
V. Risk Interpretation & Sector Implications
Used to translate rainfall anomalies into practical risk.
13. U.S. Drought Monitor
14. CAL FIRE Fire Hazard Mapping
15. USDA Climate Hubs (California)
Summary (Plain English)
Methodology Overview
Includes data sources, assumptions, and analytical methods used to compile the California Regional Rainfall and Risk Summary (Water Year-to-Date, Oct 1, 2025 – Jan 5, 2026).

Primary Data Source
NOAA Regional Climate Centers – Applied Climate Information System (ACIS)
https://www.rcc-acis.org | https://data.rcc-acis.org
Used for station-level daily precipitation, county aggregation, season-to-date totals, and normal-to-date comparisons using NOAA 1991–2020 climate normals.

Supporting Federal Sources
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) – station metadata and historical continuity
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov
NOAA Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) / GHCN-Daily – long-running daily precipitation stations
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/global-historical-climatology-network-daily

Regional & State Cross-Checks
Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC) – western U.S. precipitation climatology
https://wrcc.dri.edu
California Department of Water Resources (DWR) – snowpack and water supply context
https://water.ca.gov
California Data Exchange Center (CDEC) – precipitation and snow-water-equivalent gages
https://cdec.water.ca.gov

Analytical & Spatial Validation
PRISM Climate Group (Oregon State University) – gridded precipitation and orographic context
https://prism.oregonstate.edu
NOAA California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC) – basin-scale precipitation patterns
https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov

Risk Interpretation Sources
U.S. Drought Monitor – drought classification and early-season signals
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
CAL FIRE – wildfire risk and fuel moisture context
https://www.fire.ca.gov
USDA Climate Hubs (California) – agricultural impact context
https://www.climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs/california

Key Assumptions & Notes
• Aggregation is based on county-average station observations; no area-weighted gridding was applied.
• 'Normal' refers to NOAA 1991–2020 climate normals for the same date range.
• Sierra Nevada counties are heavily influenced by snow-water equivalent and orographic effects.
• Risk implications are qualitative and intended for planning and briefing purposes.

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Papa John - 01-06-2026

(01-06-2026, 03:53 PM)Mick Wrote:  
(01-06-2026, 12:45 PM)Papa John Wrote:  Mick, do you have a source for that regional risk summary?

I. Primary, Authoritative Data Sources (Observed Precipitation)
These are the core systems used by hydrologists, state agencies, and climate scientists.
1. NOAA / RCC ACIS (Applied Climate Information System)
  • Website: https://www.rcc-acis.org
  • API Endpoint: https://data.rcc-acis.org
  • Maintained by: NOAA Regional Climate Centers
  • Used for:
    • Station-level daily precipitation
    • County aggregation
    • Season-to-date calculations
    • Normals-to-date comparisons (via normal=1)
  • Gold standard for county-level precipitation analysis
  • Primary backbone of the compilation

<snip>

Wow, this is excellent and I'll be sure to share it with my son, who is studying atmospheric science and engineering in college!

But more to the point, can you share the link where you found that regional risk summary? The data seem to be at odds with what I found from the Santa Barbara County Public Works website.

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Mick - 01-07-2026

(01-06-2026, 05:22 PM)Papa John Wrote:  
(01-06-2026, 03:53 PM)Mick Wrote:  
(01-06-2026, 12:45 PM)Papa John Wrote:  Mick, do you have a source for that regional risk summary?

I. Primary, Authoritative Data Sources (Observed Precipitation)
These are the core systems used by hydrologists, state agencies, and climate scientists.
1. NOAA / RCC ACIS (Applied Climate Information System)
  • Website: https://www.rcc-acis.org
  • API Endpoint: https://data.rcc-acis.org
  • Maintained by: NOAA Regional Climate Centers
  • Used for:
    • Station-level daily precipitation
    • County aggregation
    • Season-to-date calculations
    • Normals-to-date comparisons (via normal=1)
  • Gold standard for county-level precipitation analysis
  • Primary backbone of the compilation

<snip>

Wow, this is excellent and I'll be sure to share it with my son, who is studying atmospheric science and engineering in college!

But more to the point, can you share the link where you found that regional risk summary? The data seem to be at odds with what I found from the Santa Barbara County Public Works website.

I think the discrepancy lies in four areas:

1. The water year on Santa Barbara site is Sept. 1 to Aug. 31, which I believe is the old system. The current system is Oct. 1. to September 30.
2. I suspect they used a different base period to compute average annual rainfall. I used 1991 as my arbitrary starting point.
3. Their "as-of" cutoff is 8 a.m., mine was midnight.
4. They used their local proprietary sensors, I used ACIS collectors.

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - BostonCard - 01-07-2026

I wouldn’t expect 1 to make much of a difference since waterfall between April (which is the end of the water year for the sierra snowpack) and October is pretty minimal.

BC

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Mick - 01-09-2026

For the first time in 25 years, California is now (apparently) completely drought-free, according to the U. S. Drought Monitor. Not a single square mile exists in a state of drought, first time since December of 2000. Seven of 12 major state-owned reservoirs are at 75% or higher capacity.

California completely drought-free for 1st time in 25 years after winter storms - ABC7 Los Angeles

Of course, it's a Los Angeles source, so...who are you going to believe, the source or your lying eyes?

2025 California Water Tracker - CalMatters

Key Numbers:

- 0% of the state's total area experiencing drought conditions. The previous drought lasted 1,337 days (Feb 11, 2020 to Oct. 10, 2023)
- 40% of State Water Project contracts will be met in 2025 as a result of updated forecasts following the wet winter season, allocations increased 35% from early December.
- 38% current snowpack levels compared to historical April 1 measurements as of January 8, 2026
- 1% compared to previous five-year average for today
- 155% average statewide precipitation compared to historical average for the water year, as of Jan 9, 2026
- 0 households reporting water shortage over the past 365 days
- 100% compared to previous 365 days
- 26% of ranked wells are at historic lows (wells at least 10-years old and measured past 18 months)
- 65% current systemwide reservoir capacity
- 7 of 12 major state-owned reservoirs at 75% or higher capacity
- -9.7% change in urban water use between January 2023 and 2020, down -6% overall from July 2021

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Hurlburt88 - 01-10-2026

I found this article sobering.   Both in terms of short-term potential impact on various states, and the long-term issue

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/trump-administration-proposes-colorado-river-options-that-could-hit-california-hard/ar-AA1TUViI?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=6962aaf94cba44ff9a526b146c2c24ea&ei=83

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Mick - 01-10-2026

(01-06-2026, 03:49 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  Lake Shasta gained 30 feet with the latest storm!

https://www.sfchronicle.com/california/article/weather-rain-shasta-reservoir-21279869.php

BC

That's cool. Now shows a 36 foot gain. It is 77% full, 129% of historical average.

Oroville has jumped 69 feet...73% full, 134% of historic average. In one day, it added the equivalent of a full Crystal Springs Reservoir.

Sierra Snowpack was at 18% of normal on December 16. On Monday, January 5, it was at 90% of normal.

California's largest reservoir rises 36 feet as rains boost water supply statewide

San Luis is 70% full, Los Vaqueros is 90% full, Cachuma is 100% full, spilled on Monday. Diamond Valley is 94% full.  Loch Lomond hit 100% full, sent water down the spillway. EBMUD's seven reservoirs were 82% full on Monday. Nine reservoirs in Santa Clara Valley were 50% full. Anderson is essentially empty, as it is undergoing construction to rebuild its dam.

Doesn't look like the Delta Conveyance Project (water tunnel) is going to happen. Proponents said $20.1 billion, opponents said 3x to 5x that number.

Newsom's signature water tunnel is set back by California court ruling

Current climate modeling is not capturing all of the long-term changes affecting rainfall. Yikes...

Meteorologists issue warnings over future of US drinking water

RE: Flooding, Lake Lag, California Water situation - Mick - 01-15-2026

(07-25-2025, 01:12 PM)Mick Wrote:  Not a water issue per se, but as a result of three successive wet winters, Highway 1 south at Regents Slide (27 miles north of the Monterey County/San Luis Obispo County border) not only remains closed (it has been closed since 2023) but it will be two months before CalTrans will even hazard a guess as to when they can give an estimate to the full opening of southbound Highway 1. There had been earlier road closures at Paul's Slide and Dolan Point (20 miles north of SLO county line), so the PCH hasn't been open for quite a while.

Two of the great joys of my life were driving south on the PCH all the way from San Francisco to San Diego, once with each of my sons. Haven't been able to do it in years. My guess is no one will be able to do it for a few more years.

Here's the photo of the Regent slide not long after it occurred:

[Image: OIP.uNJZz2jrqeBN0BNrRtWg2wHaEK?rs=1&pid=...n&o=7&rm=3]

When will Hwy. 1 reopen in Big Sur? See latest update | San Luis Obispo Tribune

Highway 1 is officially open early! Gov. Newsom announced that CalTrans opened highway 1 at noon yesterday, January 14. You can once again drive from Big Sur to Cambria. In-depth story at link below:

Governor Newsom announces early reopening of Highway 1 through Big Sur | Governor of California

New before and after photo:

[Image: before-and-after-scaled.png]