Outside Topic SF Giants 2025 - Printable Version

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - BostonCard - 09-11-2025

I mean, nice job by Melvin to get the Mets to lose 6 straight.  Giants are thus only 1.5 games out (1 in the loss column) and ESPN gives them an 8.4% chance of making the playoffs, which is better than it was a week ago (around 2% if memory serves).



BC

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - lex24 - 09-12-2025

(09-11-2025, 08:07 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I mean, nice job by Melvin to get the Mets to lose 6 straight.  Giants are thus only 1.5 games out (1 in the loss column) and ESPN gives them an 8.4% chance of making the playoffs, which is better than it was a week ago (around 2% if memory serves).



BC

Melvin is not going anywhere.  There may be some coaching changes. But he still will be managing. Players like him. And they responded down the stretch.

One thing to consider about Melvin and his tenure with the Giants. But/for Melvin the Giants probably don’t have Chapman. But/for Chapman the Giants probably don't have Adames.

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 09-12-2025

Odd aside: Jung Hoo Lee has two errors all season, seems to be playing a strong CF, has a range factor slightly better than the average CF, has two double plays from CF (2nd in NL), and leads the NL CFs in assists with seven.

So why is his Rtot an abysmal -17? Ramos is a scary-bad fielder, his Rtot is only -5.

BTW, Devers has a +1 Rtot, so his fielding is not holding the G's back. And Adames is only -1. Chapman, best 3B in baseball, is -4. Yaz, a superb fielder, was second worst on the Giants at -7. Maybe Rtot is a useless statistic.

Baseball Savant's Fielding Run Value has Bailey at +28, team leader by far, and Chapman second at +5 with Adames at +2.  Yaz, Fitz, JHL are all 0 (neutral). Casey Schmitt is -2, and Ramos is -10. Those numbers, I understand.

Fielding Run Value Leaderboard | baseballsavant.com

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - Giants - 09-12-2025

Mick dateline='[url=tel:1757698775' Wrote:  1757698775[/url]']
Odd aside: Jung Hoo Lee has two errors all season, seems to be playing a strong CF, has a range factor slightly better than the average CF, has two double plays from CF (2nd in NL), and leads the NL CFs in assists with seven.

So why is his Rtot an abysmal -17? Ramos is a scary-bad fielder, his Rtot is only -5.

BTW, Devers has a +1 Rtot, so his fielding is not holding the G's back. And Adames is only -1. Chapman, best 3B in baseball, is -4. Yaz, a superb fielder, was second worst on the Giants at -7. Maybe Rtot is a useless statistic.

Baseball Savant's Fielding Run Value has Bailey at +28, team leader by far, and Chapman second at +5 with Adames at +2.  Yaz, Fitz, JHL are all 0 (neutral). Casey Schmitt is -2, and Ramos is -10. Those numbers, I understand.

Fielding Run Value Leaderboard | baseballsavant.com

Based on my read, Rtot puts more weight on range to reach its composite figure.  

I agree with you that Savant’s numbers are a truer reflection of the Giants’ defensive capabilities. 

As for Lee, my eye test says that his range factor is weak.  In a perfect world, he would play left and SF would sign a defensive wizard to play center.  The problem is what to do with Ramos since Devers will be the DH and Eldridge will play 1B next year.  Since the world isn’t perfect, we are going to have to hope both Ramos and Lee find a way to improve their D in ‘26.

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 09-12-2025

(09-12-2025, 12:59 PM)Giants Wrote:  

Mick dateline='[url=tel:1757698775' Wrote:  1757698775[/url]']
Odd aside: Jung Hoo Lee has two errors all season, seems to be playing a strong CF, has a range factor slightly better than the average CF, has two double plays from CF (2nd in NL), and leads the NL CFs in assists with seven.

So why is his Rtot an abysmal -17? Ramos is a scary-bad fielder, his Rtot is only -5.

BTW, Devers has a +1 Rtot, so his fielding is not holding the G's back. And Adames is only -1. Chapman, best 3B in baseball, is -4. Yaz, a superb fielder, was second worst on the Giants at -7. Maybe Rtot is a useless statistic.

Baseball Savant's Fielding Run Value has Bailey at +28, team leader by far, and Chapman second at +5 with Adames at +2.  Yaz, Fitz, JHL are all 0 (neutral). Casey Schmitt is -2, and Ramos is -10. Those numbers, I understand.

Fielding Run Value Leaderboard | baseballsavant.com

Based on my read, Rtot puts more weight on range to reach its composite figure.  

I agree with you that Savant’s numbers are a truer reflection of the Giants’ defensive capabilities. 

As for Lee, my eye test says that his range factor is weak.  In a perfect world, he would play left and SF would sign a defensive wizard to play center.  The problem is what to do with Ramos since Devers will be the DH and Eldridge will play 1B next year.  Since the world isn’t perfect, we are going to have to hope both Ramos and Lee find a way to improve their D in ‘26.

Funny thing, I think Ramos can improve his outfielding skills, but I think Lee has top-ended his. JHL won five consecutive KBO Gold Glove awards...I think he's a finished product. Incidentally, he's second in the NL in triples with 11, fourth in most ABs per strikeout (8.6). Ramos is a year younger, and looks really raw in LF.

BTW, Chapman won his appeal with an unusual argument: he argued that because he was kicked out in the first inning, he'd functionally already served a one-game suspension. MLB arbitrator agreed, so his punishment was reduced to the fine. At $25 mms. annually, Chapman can afford it.

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 09-12-2025

5-1 walkoff win, Patrick Bailey grand slam home run in the 10th inning. Verlander pitched seven innings, one run ball. Lucchesi, Walker and Peguero closed it out with an inning each, Peguero got the win. Dodgers had nine base runners in 10 innings.

Mets lost, Giants are half-a-game back of the last playoff spot, tied in the loss column. Mets own the tiebreaker, so Giants would need to finish a game ahead of them.

Giants have gained 6.5 games in the last 18 games.

A's beat the Reds, Reds are a full game back of the Giants. D'Backs are 2.5 back of the Giants. 15 games to go...

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - BostonCard - 09-13-2025

Damn, the grand slam launch angle was 22 degrees.  Dude crushed it.

Fun fact, the Dodgers have been walked off in 5 of their last 15 road games.

BC

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 09-13-2025

(09-13-2025, 12:22 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  Damn, the grand slam launch angle was 22 degrees.  Dude crushed it.

Fun fact, the Dodgers have been walked off in 5 of their last 15 road games.

BC

Logan Webb vs. Clayton Kershaw tonight. Webb is 5-1 with a 2.48 ERA since August 1. Kershaw is 6-0 in that same period with a 2.74 ERA, but since September 1 he is 1-0 with a 5.06 ERA (he had two starts, a win in Baltimore and a loss in Pittsburgh). Maybe Kershaw is getting tired. Maybe today we'll make it six of 16...

Notable splits. Only two Giants are (really) slumping, although after the Dodger series it might be more.

Last two weeks:
Bailey: .306 .366 .639 1.005
Lee: .361 .410 .500 .910 (actually been killing it since July 1)
Schmitt: .257 .300 .429 .729
Koss: .333 .333 .400 .733

Last Month:
Adames: .262 .363 .607 .970
Smith: .292 .324 .431 .755
Chapman: .305 .417 .627 1.044
Devers: .286 .393 .582 .975
Matos: .327 .367 .582 .948

Slumping/Last Month:
Ramos: .245 .288 .306 .595
Flores: .178 .245 .400 .645

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - lex24 - 09-13-2025

Unbelievable game last night. Verlander and Yamamoto dealing. Great defense by both teams.McCray getting nailed at the plate in the 9th on a perfect throw from Pages.  Then having just come into the game in right field, making a tremendous throw to nail the ghost runner at third base.

Bailey hitting the grand slam. After Lee had actually struck out, but the ump blew the call. It was Bailey’s first home run hitting right handed since August 2023.  

Bailey had a pretty good offensive September in 2024 and is doing so again this year. I keep hoping he finds the bat he had in the first half of 2024. If he does that next year, he’s an All-Star.

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 09-13-2025

Tyler Rogers came in for the Mets, with the Mets ahead of the Rangers, 2-1. Rogers gave up two runs, Rangers now lead Mets, 3-2.

Tyler's coming through for the Giants yet again...

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - BobK - 09-13-2025

The Mets loss 3-2. Thank you Tyler

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 09-13-2025

And it's official...the Rangers beat the Mets, 3-2.

Giants and the Mets are officially tied for the last playoff spot, though the Mets have the tiebreaker.

Mets are 76-73, Giants are 75-72. Technically, the Giants have won 51.020% and the Mets have won 51.007% of their games...

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - BostonCard - 09-13-2025

Not meant to be today.  How much longer will the Mets streak go?

BC

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 09-16-2025

Stanford alum Tristan Beck is pitching against the Diamondbacks tonight. Has a 4.88 ERA on the season with a slightly better 4.27 FIP and a much better 1.104 WHIP (actually the best sign). He pitched two innings against the Dodgers, gave up only one baserunner (a walk) and no hits. Maybe he gets the win tonight.

With Season On The Line, San Francisco Giants Turn To New Starting Pitcher

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 09-21-2025

Giants beat the Dodgers, 3-1. Good game. 24-year-old pitcher Trevor McDonald -- who has been on the 40 man roster all season -- became the 14th Giant pitcher to start a game when he threw six innings against the Dodgers, gave up six hits, just one earned run. He didn't get a start earlier because he had a 5.31 ERA in Sacramento.

And now for the Sunday night hallucination...the Giants can still make the playoffs. All the relevant teams have six games left to play. Here's how in can play out:

1. Giants have to run the table, winning all six of their remaining games. All six are at home. Three are against the Rockies, three are against the Cardinals.  They're 1-2 vs. the Cardinals in St. Louis, and have gone 8-2 vs. Colorado.

2. The Diamondbacks are two ahead of the Giants and own the season tiebreaker vs. the Giants. Happily, their six remaining games are against the Dodgers (at home) and in San Diego. They need to lose at least three of them. They are 5-5 against both the Dodgers and the Padres this season.

3. The Mets are three games ahead of the Giants. They have three games against the Cubs (88-68) at Wrigley and three games in Miami against the Marlins. The Mets are 4-11 in their last 15 games. They need to lose four, five or all six games. They went 2-1 vs. the Cubs at Shea and are 5-5 against the Marlins.

4. The Reds are three games ahead of the Giants. They have three home games against the Pirates and three road games against the Brewers. Reds are 3-7 vs. the Brewers, and 6-4 vs. the Pirates. They need to lose four of the six.

If the Giants win all six, they'll be 83-79. Only three teams with 83 or fewer wins have made the playoffs:
- 2005 Padres (82-80, won NL West, lost 3-0 in NLDS)
- 2006 Cardinals (83-78, won NL Central, won World Series 4-1 vs. Tigers)
- 1973 Mets (82-79, won NL East, beat the 99-63 Reds for the NL pennant and lost to the A's in seven in the World Series)

Current FanGraphs odds of Giants making the playoffs are 0.2%, so about 500:1, and 0.0% to in the World Series. Sounds about right.

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - BostonCard - 09-22-2025

(09-21-2025, 07:44 PM)Mick Wrote:  Current FanGraphs odds of Giants making the playoffs are 0.2%, so about 500:1, and 0.0% to in the World Series. Sounds about right.

BC

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 09-25-2025

(09-11-2025, 07:50 PM)Mick Wrote:  The Giants are 74-72, 16 games to go. I projected 90 wins, they'd have to win the rest of them.

Does Melvin keep his job? If he gets in the playoffs, yes. If he misses by 1-3 games, maybe. If he misses the playoffs by four or more games, I think he's gone.

SF Giants GM Zack Minasian evades question on Bob Melvin's job security

Giants are 1.5 back, by the way, with the Mets loss today.

Not only did Minasian evade questions about Bob Melvin's job security, but Logan Webb had this to say:

"This is the most talented team I've been on," and "It's kind of hard to pinpoint when things go wrong, unfortunately, it just seems like we've let it stay wrong for a long time."

When Kapler was torpedoed two years after winning the most games in a single season of any Giants manager in their 138 year history, it started with the public whining of a terrible pitcher named Ross Stripling who was 0-5 with a 5.36 ERA and complained he "didn't know how he was being used." The next year, Stripling's last in baseball, he was 2-11.

That didn't sink Kapler, but the lack of support by Logan Webb did...and history is repeating itself.  

Logan Webb's latest comments do not bode well for SF Giants manager Bob Melvin

Here's the list of underperformers:

Chapman, 4.0 WAR compared with 7.1 last year.
Ramos, 1.2 WAR, compared with 2.3 last year.
Bailey, 1.1 WAR compared with 1.8
Devers, 1.5 WAR for Giants compare with 2.3 for Boston in fewer games and 3.7 for the prior season
Fitzgerald, 0.8 WAR compared with 2.8 last year.

Adames did a little better, 3.3 vs. 3.1 last year.

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 09-27-2025

This morning, I looked up "shellacking" (context: US Ryder Cup performance) in the Cambridge dictionary. Love the Dodger reference...
cambridge dictionary shellacking - Search

Meaning of shellacking in English
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[url=https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdictionary.cambridge.org%2Fdictionary%2Fenglish%2Fshellacking&text=]
shellacking
noun [ C usually singular ]
 US informal
uk 
 /ʃəˈlæk.ɪŋ/ /ˈʃel.æk.ɪŋ/ us 
 /ʃəˈlæk.ɪŋ/ /ˈʃel.æk.ɪŋ/
Add to word list 
a complete defeat:
The Dodgers took a shellacking (= were defeated by many points).

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - Mick - 09-27-2025

Giants won a squeaker (4-3, over the Rockies) to go 80-81 on the season. This is the fourth season in a row that the Giants have won between 79 and 81 games.

They need a closer. Walker and Bivens were...not fun to watch.

On the plus side, attendance increased nearly 250k this year. Here's the recent history:

2025 2,888,287 (with one home game remaining)
2024 2,647,736
2023 2,500,153
2022 2,482,686

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RE: SF Giants 2025 - BobK - 09-27-2025

Walker should have been cut long ago.
No excise for Posey keeping Walker

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