Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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lex24 - lex24 - 04-10-2022

(04-10-2022, 08:10 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  CBS's 60 Minutes just aired a 40 minute segment on Zelenskyy. Wow. A very powerful segment, indeed. The destruction and murder is beyond belief. . . .While appreciative of the support, Zelenskyy put forth a powerful argument for more, faster. I hope we respond accordingly.

Hadn't watched 60 Minutes for years, CBS happened to still be on after the Masters. Surprised by their perspective. Scott Pelley did an amazing job.

There is only so much we can do.  Unless we want to unleash WWIII.

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RE: lex24 - cardcrimson - 04-10-2022

(04-10-2022, 08:11 PM)lex24 Wrote:  

(04-10-2022, 08:10 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  CBS's 60 Minutes just aired a 40 minute segment on Zelenskyy. Wow. A very powerful segment, indeed. The destruction and murder is beyond belief. . . .While appreciative of the support, Zelenskyy put forth a powerful argument for more, faster. I hope we respond accordingly.

Hadn't watched 60 Minutes for years, CBS happened to still be on after the Masters. Surprised by their perspective. Scott Pelley did an amazing job.

There is only so much we can do.  Unless we want to unleash WWIII.

And that is EXACTLY want Vlad wants the West to think. When do we stand up to him? After Ukraine falls? After the Baltics fall? After Poland falls? After Hungary and few other pro Russia governments join forces?

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RE: lex24 - Goose - 04-10-2022

(04-10-2022, 08:11 PM)lex24 Wrote:  

(04-10-2022, 08:10 PM)cardcrimson Wrote:  CBS's 60 Minutes just aired a 40 minute segment on Zelenskyy. Wow. A very powerful segment, indeed. The destruction and murder is beyond belief. . . .While appreciative of the support, Zelenskyy put forth a powerful argument for more, faster. I hope we respond accordingly.

Hadn't watched 60 Minutes for years, CBS happened to still be on after the Masters. Surprised by their perspective. Scott Pelley did an amazing job.

There is only so much we can do.  Unless we want to unleash WWIII.

True. There are certainly "issues". Problem 1 is that how much we can do without starting WWIII is unknown. What will be required to set Putin off? Problem 2 is that sending weapons systems to Ukraine that they do not know how to use and cannot maintain is worse than useless. These systems will only be useful if sent with the troops to operate them. This is considered a non-starter because of problem 1. Since the quantity and quality of ex-Soviet arms in NATO is limited, that really reduces our options. Pretty frustrating.

Russia has the "Wagner Group", which is a mercs organization. In the US we have several commercial companies that supply planes and pilots to act as "aggressor squadrons". I wonder if the Ukraine could hire one of these companies to fly in the Polish Migs and operate them? Kind of like the "Flying Tigers" of WWII. Russia can't complain. They have mercs, Ukraine should be allowed to do so too. Not a US effort. These guys aren't in our military. Totally a commercial transaction, our government isn't involved. Germany appears to be doing something like that with artillery pieces that Ukraine is "buying" from a German company who is "borrowing" them from the German military until it can build replacements. If that is permissible, a set of hired guns that fly used planes should be too.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 04-12-2022

Is this a change in policy or just a change in semantics?  I recall the U.S. said the Polish offer of MiGs was untenable, but I'm not sure whether "does not object" is a material difference, unless the US or someone else is willing to back fill Slovakia's MiGs with F-15s or some other viable fighter jet.  

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1513893638027288591

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-12-2022

I think the issue was flying them from a US military base, and also how long it would take to supply F16s.

We've of course dealt with this sort of thing before, not sure why it wouldn't be possible to do it again.

https://youtu.be/HL41oesVh9o

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-12-2022

(04-12-2022, 11:59 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Is this a change in policy or just a change in semantics?  I recall the U.S. said the Polish offer of MiGs was untenable, but I'm not sure whether "does not object" is a material difference, unless the US or someone else is willing to back fill Slovakia's MiGs with F-15s or some other viable fighter jet.  

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1513893638027288591

I think the "does not object" is not a change in policy. I think all along the US was willing to sell/give F-16s to Poland (who already has many) to replace Migs given to Ukraine. However, the Poles wanted the Migs to go through a US base, which meant the US government was transferring the Migs to the Ukrainian government. It is the government to government aspect that is (apparently) the problem. The US doesn't care if some other government is willing to "take the blame" from Russia. It also appears that commercial transactions are OK, as Germany will allow Krauss-Maffei Wegmann to sell howitzers to Ukraine.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-04-10/german-arms-maker-offers-weapons-to-ukraine-german-government-source
This isn't a nuance. Technically, the US wouldn't be giving Migs to Ukraine, even though it obviously furthered such a transaction. It is similar to the Flying Tigers. The US government had nothing to do with that (technically).

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 04-12-2022

Thanks for the responses.  I haven't found further info on the MiG-29s, but this indicates that the U.S. is set to provide Mi-17 helicopters, among other new equipment:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/12/pentagon-ukraine-weapons/.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-12-2022

https://www.axios.com/russian-atrocities-breakthroughs-ukraine-military-aid-6399731d-8dc6-47a2-aecd-542d125e195e.html

It does look like a change in policy, or maybe just a normal reaction to the horrific s inflicted by Russia.

It would make sense just to transfer any Soviet era weaponry from former Eastern Block countries to Ukraine and replace it with Western equivalents.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-12-2022

(04-12-2022, 07:18 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  https://www.axios.com/russian-atrocities-breakthroughs-ukraine-military-aid-6399731d-8dc6-47a2-aecd-542d125e195e.html

It does look like a change in policy, or maybe just a normal reaction to the horrific s inflicted by Russia.

It would make sense just to transfer any Soviet era weaponry from former Eastern Block countries to Ukraine and replace it with Western equivalents.

It mostly would. The problem is that much of that Soviet era weaponry is in "storage", meaning lots of it is not in usable condition. Hopefully that which is useful will be transferred and quickly. That second item has been a problem so far.

I think the US is still going to rely on commercial channels for any significant offensive weaponry from the USA. We are still being careful I think. Other smaller nations may be able to do more simply because Russia doesn't want to start a nuclear war because the Czech Republic provides "offensive" weapons to Ukraine.
However, what I fear is that if Russia suffers further significant reverses in this war, they may "over react". I am sure I am just saying what everybody already knows. The problem is, how do you deal with a state that is totally irrational and also has nuclear weapons?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-13-2022

File this one under “what’s good for the goose is good for the gander”

https://www.wired.com/story/russia-ukraine-data/

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-13-2022

Finnish and Swedish PMs at joint press conference today indicating plans to move ahead with NATO membership. Putin making a play for dumbest "special military operation" in past 100 years. 

https://news.yahoo.com/finland-sweden-move-ahead-toward-143900147.html

Poland sending upgraded Soviet tanks to Ukraine, joining Czechs.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1514236244263378946?s=20&t=xq23Cv7iAIVNuUl8V2KPww[/tweet]

I suspect it's only a matter of time until the MIGs are going over as well. I've seen some discussion that perhaps the best MIGs to send are recent models from Egypt that are equipped with newer active radar R77 missiles, more modern than the older Slovakian and Polish MIGs. Egypt may be open to it if they can get some F16s to replace apparently. And coming from a non NATO source might be felt as less escalatory.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/04/supporting-ukraine-for-the-long-war-2/

Here from WaPo, sounds like the Ukrainian pilots really just want F16s themselves. Doesn't seem like the US is close to being there yet, but I think it makes sense to at least start training some pilots on them for now for the long haul.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/13/ukrainian-fighter-pilots-mig-29-russians/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 04-13-2022

Based on the WaPo article, why not just provide advanced anti-aircraft defenses?  Ukraine has the advantage of merely needing to defend already-entrenched infantry in the Donbas. As long as Russia can’t get air supremacy, Ukraine should be able to defend itself with artillery. Throw in the Mi-17 helicopters for good measure.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-13-2022

(04-13-2022, 09:37 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Poland sending upgraded Soviet tanks to Ukraine, joining Czechs.

This is great. We just need to get these weapons there in time to matter. Russia appears to be taking their sweet time to start the "next wave". That has helped, but time is the enemy. All kinds of "stuff" delivered after Donbas is gone will not be useless, but it would require Ukraine to fight on from a weaker position. Let's hope they can hold. It appears Ukraine will make no attempt to relieve Mariupol. While that may be a necessary decision, it is regrettable that they can't fix more Russian troops in place there.

Quote:I suspect it's only a matter of time until the MIGs are going over as well. I've seen some discussion that perhaps the best MIGs to send are recent models from Egypt that are equipped with newer active radar R77 missiles, more modern than the older Slovakian and Polish MIGs. Egypt may be open to it if they can get some F16s to replace apparently. And coming from a non NATO source might be felt as less escalatory.

Yes, getting MIGs from Egypt would be nice. Again, time is of the essence. The ability of Ukraine to maintain an air force at all is at risk because their airports are all at risk. The fact they have done as well as they have is wonderful, but it can't last. Russia will just keep reducing Ukraine's facilities until none are left. Ukraine needs offensive power to prevent that. Unfortunately, MIGs aren't it. Bombs on target are not their job.

Quote:Here from WaPo, sounds like the Ukrainian pilots really just want F16s themselves. Doesn't seem like the US is close to being there yet, but I think it makes sense to at least start training some pilots on them for now for the long haul.

Two weeks to become an F-16 jock? War makes people desperate. It is not exactly like we have F-16s coming out of our ears either. This whole issue is much more problematic than it first appears. An F-16 is not a point defense fighter. The F-102/F-106 were. The USAF philosophy is completely different than the Russians/Ukrainian one. We don't have an IAD approach to air defense, and haven't had one since the mid-70s. Even in the mid 60s, only a very small part of our air force was involved in such a concept. IOW, it ain't that easy. We don't fight like they do and our weapons aren't optimal/designed to do so. You have to change your entire mindset.

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TreesAndBirds - TreesAndBirds - 04-13-2022

Interesting article on positive effect of Ukraine military training with Nato in recent years (including California National Guard, which Ive read about elsewhere also).

Likely behind a paywall so in short—— Nato encouraged/taught decentralized decision making (more decision making authority to soldiers further down the chain), more focus on the value of non-coms (valuing battlefield experience more) and more “professionalism” (like auditors looking for corruption or whether equipment really works).  Has resulted in a more nimble, Western style military.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-military-success-years-of-nato-training-11649861339

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-13-2022

(04-13-2022, 10:39 AM)TrumpCard Wrote:  Based on the WaPo article, why not just provide advanced anti-aircraft defenses?  Ukraine has the advantage of merely needing to defend already-entrenched infantry in the Donbas. As long as Russia can’t get air supremacy, Ukraine should be able to defend itself with artillery. Throw in the Mi-17 helicopters for good measure.

Already entrenched infantry works as long as you are fighting paramilitary forces who have no armor. Against a mobile armored force in the tank paradise that is that part of Ukraine, it is suicide. That is why Ukraine wants armor, because they know that is the only way to prevent their infantry from being flanked/encircled. Russia is messed up, but they are not that messed up. Even in WWII the Germans demonstrated what armor could do in that region. You punch a hole in the defense, flow tanks through the hole and fan out behind the trenches. No further fighting necessary. The infantry isn't going anywhere, and they are cut off. No supply trucks, no food, no water, no ammo. Game over.

Provide what anti-aircraft defenses? Since the HAWK was retired in 1990, the US has had no medium altitude air defense weapon that was mobile enough to defend infantry. We have no equivalent of the Pantsir or Tor. We rely on our air force, period. The Patriot is a great system but it is more like the S-300. The Patriot is even less mobile than the S-300. You also can't teach somebody to operate and maintain a Patriot battery in a month. So what do we give them?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-13-2022

Quote:It appears Ukraine will make no attempt to relieve Mariupol.

There was a post somewhere this morning that Ukrainian marines had breached Russian lines to connect with Azov battalion soldiers in Mariupol.

This is one but I can't find the longer post. In any case I don't think Russia will be able to actually consolidate control of Mariupol for some time.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1514326744140062728?s=20&t=a7vJYw8UE1wSdagsx3zG8A[/tweet]

Here's the latest US aid. Helicopters. Artillery. Armored vehicles. And unmanned coastal defense vessels. Steadily ramping up the level of equipment provided.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/CavasShips/status/1514315688831242244?s=20&t=yR8ItaD-1oRJNZe66xZQFg[/tweet]

Annnnnnnd Ukraine claims to have hit the Russian Black Sea flagship, the cruiser Moskva, with indigenous Ukrainian Neptune ASMs. Maybe they don't need the Harpoons after all. IF true, pretty embarassing for Russia. The Moskva doesn't have much offensive anti-ground capability as it does not have Kalibr cruise missiles, but it does have extensive anti missile and anti air defenses. This was the ship that Ukrainians famously told to go F*ck itself at the start of the war.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/LtTimMcMillan/status/1514338032253652992?s=20&t=SAB26Hpvx1lg3gNr02NOVw[/tweet]

More on Moskva-

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/04/russias-most-powerful-warship-in-the-black-sea-is-operating-in-a-pattern/

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-13-2022

(04-13-2022, 01:50 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  

Goose Wrote:It appears Ukraine will make no attempt to relieve Mariupol.

There was a post somewhere this morning that Ukrainian marines had broached Russian lines to connect with Azov battalion soldiers in Mariupol.
This is one but I can't find the longer post. In any case I don't think Russia will be able to actually consolidate control of Mariupol for some time.

It appears that the two main groups holding out in Mariupol have consolidated. This is undoubtedly an advantage because the marines were running low on ammunition. Hopefully they can hold on. If one looks at the maps it would appear the Russian hold on Mariupol to the West is not very deep. I was hoping that the Ukrainian Army could punch through and inject fresh forces there. It may be they just don't think it is practical. In any case, the longer it is there the longer the Russians have to pay attention to it.

Quote:Here's the latest US aid. Helicopters. Artillery. Armored vehicles. And unmanned coastal defense vessels. Steadily ramping up the level of equipment provided.

Good stuff. I would like to know which 155 mm howitzers we are supplying. If they are US towed howitzers, which I suspect they are, Ukraine can use them immediately. The 40K rounds are necessary because it is probable Russian ammunition can't be used in our weapons. This is because the chamber pressures of their propellants is different than ours (at a minimum). It is not logistically ideal, because you have to have the "right kind" of 155mm ammunition. I don't know this for sure though. If they are ex-soviet weapons, no problem. The Ukraine also has some AN/TPQ-36 delivered previously, so they presumably know what they are and know they are useful.

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I suggest the following link.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-war-pushes-germans-change-185920084.html
This is a big issue. Germany is perhaps the biggest "offender", but there is more than a little ambivalence in many European countries. It is also an issue whenever NATO expands. NATO gains responsibilities that are often not commensurate with what the new members bring to the table. The problem is that this is often necessary because to keep the peace the weak must be protected by the stronger. Some nations don't want to do that. They are just fine with getting protection from stronger countries but not so fine about protecting weaker neighbors.
Germany is a more complex case because of it's aggressive history, but it is unquestionably true it has been allowed to "skate" a lot in the past 20 years. When Germany was on the "front lines" of the Warsaw Pact, there was no question they would do their part and more. That place has now been taken by Poland. Germany "retired" to absorb their reunified Eastern half. Unfortunately, they remained in retirement. That needs to change, but politically that isn't so simple.
The USA is of course at the top of the food chain. There is nobody to pass the buck to. That hasn't changed either. Some Americans don't like that fact. However, keep in mind we are a heck of a lot better off with Ukraine fighting Russia on the Dnieper than Poland fighting them on the Vistula or Germany fighting them on the Oder. Sad but true.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-13-2022

Russia confirms!!!!!! 

[tweet]https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1514379537903235074?s=20&t=b9O62wr-q2YzSYQFw8mr1A[/tweet]

Reportedly the previous SOS signals that were being intercepted from the ship (I didn't mention in my earlier post because I was somewhat skeptical), have since stopped. The Moskva is likely at the bottom of the Black Sea. Russian Black Sea flagship, sunk by a country with no Navy. The Ukrainians are doing some incredible stuff, but WOW the Russians are being exposed in so many ways by this war, this was the ship that supposed to protect all their other ships from missile attacks! Russia better hope Ukraine doesn't have many more of those Neptune missiles or their entire Black Sea fleet could be in trouble. The missiles reportedly have a 190 mile range, well more than most fielded Harpoon variants particularly the surface launched ones. Once Ukraine wins this war, their defense industry will probably have a lot of orders- their Stugna/Skif antitank missiles have been performing very well too, for much lower price than a Javelin or NLAW.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-13-2022

(04-13-2022, 05:20 PM)dabigv13 Wrote:  Russia confirms!!!!!! 



Reportedly the previous SOS signals that were being intercepted from the ship (I didn't mention in my earlier post because I was somewhat skeptical), have since stopped. The Moskva is likely at the bottom of the Black Sea. Russian Black Sea flagship, sunk by a country with no Navy. The Ukrainians are doing some incredible stuff, but WOW the Russians are being exposed in so many ways by this war, this was the ship that supposed to protect all their other ships from missile attacks! Russia better hope Ukraine doesn't have many more of those Neptune missiles or their entire Black Sea fleet could be in trouble. The missiles reportedly have a 190 mile range, well more than most fielded Harpoon variants particularly the surface launched ones. Once Ukraine wins this war, their defense industry will probably have a lot of orders- their Stugna/Skif antitank missiles have been performing very well too, for much lower price than a Javelin or NLAW.

Ukraine already has a contract with Indonesia for the Neptune. It is an upgrade of an existing Russian system. Still a very nice weapon system. There are web sites out there that point out that the entire Black Sea fleet is at risk if the Ukraine has a 300km range weapon.

We don't yet know if the ship has sunk, but the Russians themselves have stated the crew has been evacuated. How many casualties naturally was not announced. The weather is bad, and without a crew one would expect the ship will sink/has sunk. We will probably know tomorrow if the weather clears a bit.

The problem with very long range anti-shipping missiles is targeting. A ship's radar horizon isn't that far. A 100 foot high mast allows you to see about 12.5 miles. Therefore, if you want to fire a missile at a ship 180 miles away, somebody else has to tell you where that ship is. How the Ukrainians managed that problem is an interesting question. Did the Moskva get too close to Odesa, did the Ukrainians use an aircraft, or did they have "help"?

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-13-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1514181898456555531?s=21&t=uwSHaZvg6XSgVuzQePGIVA[/tweet]

Not a good day for Putin.

BC

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(04-13-2022, 05:43 PM)Goose Wrote:  Did the Moskva get too close to Odesa, did the Ukrainians use an aircraft, or did they have "help"?

Yes on the aircraft, but maybe not the way you think…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1514398732611211271?s=21&t=uwSHaZvg6XSgVuzQePGIVA[/tweet]

BC

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Memes are coming in hot and heavy right now…

[tweet]https://twitter.com/kt_so_it_goes/status/1514398678898941957?s=21&t=uwSHaZvg6XSgVuzQePGIVA[/tweet]

BC

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