Outside Topic Way OT: Ukraine - Printable Version

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - ca245 - 04-15-2022

Great for the Ukrainians, sinking that ship. But I worry that it may cause Putin to engage in some “I’ll get even” or “I’ll show you” brash escalation. (But if I were one of the Ukrainians, I’d fire that missile too.)

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-15-2022

This sinking greatly reduces the ability of the Russian Navy to protect it's fleet from Ukrainian air. It also eliminates the umbrella that the Moskva could have provided to an advance along the South coast or an amphibious assault. This does matter. It would matter a lot more, perhaps even at a war winning level, if Ukraine possessed a significant Naval air force and/or a significant air to ground capability. Unfortunately, they don't. So, while this is a "big win" for Ukraine, it doesn't alter the correlation of forces in the Donbas by itself. How much combat power (if any) it frees up in the South is unknown to me, and how Ukraine can best use those forces is also another question.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-15-2022

Apparently, the 54 sailors who were rescued were rescued by a Turkish ship, not a Russian ship, so I will go with callous indifference.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-15-2022

I wonder what sort of deconfliction Turkey and Ukraine have worked out. So many crazy interesting things about this "special military operation", don't have the patience to wait for all the details to eventually leak out.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-15-2022

(04-15-2022, 09:34 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  I wonder what sort of deconfliction Turkey and Ukraine have worked out. So many crazy interesting things about this "special military operation", don't have the patience to wait for all the details to eventually leak out.

Good question. If a Turkish vessel was closer to the Moskva than any other Russian vessel (which appears probable given that they picked up survivors), it is possible the Neptune missiles could have locked on to the commercial ship instead. Maybe it was a smaller ship, and it isn't named in this article, which is a bit unusual. I would expect every ship in the area is being very, very careful, and if not a warship are running their AIS religiously. It appears that the Moskva was actually pretty close to land towards the West, which seems a bit odd. There isn't any traffic going into Ukraine by sea as I understand it, so no reason to be there. Indeed, many questions.

I am waiting for reports from the Turkish ship itself about what happened. The initial report in the Lithuanian press I saw https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/turkish-ship-rescued-54-sailors-on-russian-cruiser-moskva-lithuania contains statements about the time of the Moskva actually sinking that appears to contradict what the US DoD said. Lots of stuff we don't know yet. It is also possible other survivors were picked up by other vessels.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-15-2022

I also wonder what will happen to the Russian sailors. Will Turkey inter them until the end of the conflict? If I were a Russian sailor that's what I'd be hoping for, lest they give me a gun, some moth eaten body armor and send me into the Donbas.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-15-2022

(04-15-2022, 10:25 AM)dabigv13 Wrote:  I also wonder what will happen to the Russian sailors. Will Turkey inter them until the end of the conflict? If I were a Russian sailor that's what I'd be hoping for, lest they give me a gun, some moth eaten body armor and send me into the Donbas.

Or worse, send me to prison or Siberia so I can't tell the public/other sailors what actually happened. Japan did something similar to that to the survivors of the battle of Midway.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - dabigv13 - 04-15-2022

Some disgusting shit here. Really hope Ukraine can retake Crimea and make these scumbags move back to Russia.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1515008736959643652?s=20&t=VAfuNRcx3DBN2y0i7KhcNA[/tweet]

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-15-2022

I think so de Turkey is a non-combatant, the rescued Russian sailors would be repatriated after being treated for whatever injuries they may have suffered.

I suppose they could always desert and seek asylum.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-15-2022

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/04/satellite-image-pinpoints-russian-cruiser-moskva-as-she-burned/

This website is showing SAR satellite data indicating there were several ships close to the Moskva after she was hit. It also shows one ship alongside and another very near. The resolution of the expanded image isn't great, so I am not sure how reliable it is. However, it is better than the reports we have received otherwise, which have no data at all behind them. The written commentary is a bit more balanced IMHO, but it seems to indicate there may be more survivors reported rescued.

Another source of info from a guy who does have some reputation for accuracy.
https://twitter.com/alessionaval/status/1514529987101175811?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-15-2022

I hope so. The thought that 450 sailors would have perished at sea is horrifying, even if they were combatants engaged in an unjust war of aggression.

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - TrumpCard - 04-15-2022

I’ll take a drop of wine from my glass to reflect that my joy is diminished by the death of G-d’s creatures, and then toast to the sinking of the ship and all the innocent Ukrainians who might live as a result of the Russian sailors dying.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-16-2022

The question of survivors is getting stranger and stranger. I think we can discount the idea that there were no casualties, despite Russian press releases that they had recovered the entire crew. The Ukrainian government has said that attempts by the Russians to rescue the crew failed because of the weather. The Ukrainian government has also stated in a different report that a Turkish vessel recovered 54 sailors. The US DoD has said that Russian rescue efforts were observed, but gave no estimate of how successful they may have been. The commercial SAR picture appears to show several vessels attempting to rescue the crew.

By now, that Turkish ship certainly would have reached a port. The sinking was about 50 miles to the East of the coastline. No cargo vessel has accommodations for 54 impromptu passengers, some of which are probably injured and/or suffering from exposure. Even if, for some crazy reason, the ship decided to complete it's voyage in the Black Sea, it is at it's destination by now. Two days at even 10 knots will get you where you are going. At the very least one would have expected a long message giving the names of those rescued. We don't even know the name of the vessel. Also strange. Even if the rescued crew has to a man declined to be interviewed, I would expect the ship would want credit for executing a humanitarian rescue under difficult weather conditions. I would also expect the press to be all over this story. Yet we hear nothing at all. IMHO very strange. Did it even happen?

We know that the Moskva didn't simply explode and sink. They did transmit SOSs that were picked up by multiple recipients. If she had already rolled on her side, that wouldn't be happening, the radio antennas would be in the water, among other things. There was time for a somewhat organized abandon ship activity. At the very least, there would be some men in the water. The Ukraine seems to be saying she was above water for about an hour, although she may have capsized pretty early on. Not sure the Ukrainians actually knew, but it is the best data point we have. Either way, you can be sure there were survivors. Maybe not many, but some. So where are they? No sign of them in Sevastopol so far.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-16-2022

I’m with you, it is very weird.  Meanwhile the Russians held a memorial for the ship, but not the sailors.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1515029445169582089?s=21&t=EZL5BTG-ry_DWCcs17FGlQ[/tweet]

BC

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I’m not much of a stamp collector, but this one might be worth getting:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_warship%2C_go_fuck_yourself_%28stamp%29

BC

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-16-2022

(04-16-2022, 08:20 AM)BostonCard Wrote:  Meanwhile the Russians held a memorial for the ship, but not the sailors.


BC

Indeed. Supposedly this memorial wasn't officially sanctioned, but was rather organized by the families of those who were currently in the ship plus those who had served in the ship previously. It wasn't a big crowd. It almost seemed, at least to me, as a thinly veiled poke at the Navy asking "What happened to the Moskva"? It wasn't unpatriotic, in fact the opposite, so it would be difficult to disallow it. Retired officers (at least) were there. Yet it did raise the question.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - lex24 - 04-16-2022

(04-15-2022, 06:43 PM)BostonCard Wrote:  I hope so. The thought that 450 sailors would have perished at sea is horrifying, even if they were combatants engaged in an unjust war of aggression.

BC

We think it’s horrifying. But do the Russians?  History tells us how Russia fights wars. In the Great Patriotic War Russia defeated Germany for several reasons. Some of it involving German miscalculation and hubris, but most of it in the incredible resolve of the Russian people, fueled by an Ultra- Nationalism, and also  the knowledge that if they didn’t fight, they’d be exiled or executed.

I think people in the West, and particularly most people in the US have little understanding of how different it is to live  in a Country with no democratic history and no democratic leanings. 

When we fought in the Gulf (whether you believe it the right or wrong action) we did so at least trying to limit civilian deaths and US casualties.  Russia will do neither. There are no protests in the streets (well there were  some early, but they didn’t end well for the protesters) no Congressional committees.  No questions of the leadership. - at least not publically.  And those within the leader class who do so privately risk their lives.  There is just Putin and his sycophants couple with an Ultra- Nationalist populace ready to fight and die for Mother Russia.

Which is why sanctions cannot in and of themselves end this. Although they must be imposed. The long term effect, I’m afraid, will be to further unite the Russians against the Evil West.

The only end I see to this mess (beyond those I do not wish to consider) is to give Putin some “graceful” out.  Zelensky has signaled Ukraine will agree to neutrality. But this won’t end absent some concession by Zelensky relative to the Crimea, and The Donbas. 

Not a particularly palatable “solution”. And of course any concession raises the possibility that he will view the West as soft and consider his next move.

But what other solution is there?  Those that suggest some form of direct action underestimate, in my opinion, the willingness of a cornered Putin to undertake the unthinkable.  And those that hope for a Russian uprising fail, I think, to understand the Russian mindset - molded by its history. Backed against the wall, the people will support Putin. Because it’s for “ Mother Russia”. 

What is happening to Ukraine is horrific.  But absent some “agreement” as distasteful as that will be, it’s likely to get worse.  A wounded Bear is a very dangerous animal.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - gailtate - 04-16-2022

Like many here, I grew up at the outset of the Cold War. The Russians were definitive bad guys. Chrome-dome Nikita Krushchev was almost a cartoon villain  but he was menacing nonetheless, pounding his shoe on a table at the U.N. and bear-hugging Fidel Castro at every photo-op, taunting Nixon and then Kennedy. He was a bipartisan taunter. But for all his bluster and menace, he faded from favor back at the Kremlin after the Missile Crisis. He never was never a typical "strong-man' because the Soviet system had its own checks/balances. It discouraged "strong men" from outgrowing their pants. The premiere served at the pleasure of the council of ministers, or something. The summer before the Cuba crisis I was an usher at the U.S.-USSR track meet at Stanford Stadium and began believing that Russians couldn't be all that nasty if their track team could walk arm-in-arm with our athletes around Stanford Stadium. In October I got my first lesson on the difference between the Russian people and their government. In Russia "the people" didn't mean the same thing as it did in America. Years later I worked for "Hoot" Gibson (a chain-gang guy at Stanford fooball games) at Stanford Research Institute, which he co-founded. He would tell me about his meetings with Leonid Brezhnev and driving around Moscow with Brezhnev's hand on his (Hoot's) thigh the whole time. "I didn't know how to take it off so I left it on!"  There was still a Cold War underway but it seemed like there was a genuine truce in place. No more, it seems. A strong man has emerged, decades after the demise of the old checks and balances in the Kremlin. Which brings me back to the "people" thing and the notion of "strong" men and the fact there have always been cultures that tend to favor them. At this moment the Russian culture has produced a full-fledged strong man and genuinely loves him for his feats of strength.  Which he will continue to perform until the emergence of a Soviet-vintage regime change. Which can't happen soon enough. Right now, this seems unlikely in the near future in light of Russians' infatuation with "strength".  I gotta wonder what Hoot would think about all of this.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Erika - 04-16-2022

Along the lines of the Russian Soldier's mentality, this story from the WaPo is pretty graphic:

Story of one man's body left in a killing field.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - Goose - 04-16-2022

(04-16-2022, 09:44 AM)lex24 Wrote:  We think it’s horrifying. But do the Russians?  History tells us how Russia fights wars. In the Great Patriotic War Russia defeated Germany for several reasons. Some of it involving German miscalculation and hubris, but most of it in the incredible resolve of the Russian people, fueled by an Ultra- Nationalism, and also  the knowledge that if they didn’t fight, they’d be exiled or executed.

I think people in the West, and particularly most people in the US have little understanding of how different it is to live  in a Country with no democratic history and no democratic leanings.
<snip>
There is just Putin and his sycophants couple with an Ultra- Nationalist populace ready to fight and die for Mother Russia.
<snip>
And those that hope for a Russian uprising fail, I think, to understand the Russian mindset - molded by its history. Backed against the wall, the people will support Putin. Because it’s for “ Mother Russia”.

I certainly agree we don't understand the Russian public. However, I think this misunderstanding includes the idea they are particularly patriotic. The Russians certainly have an inferiority complex that goes back a long way. It is important to them that they be considered strong and be respected. This is coupled with a well-founded suspicion that they are not so strong and maybe not deserving of great respect. A leader that will deliver strength and respect is what they seek. It doesn't matter what else is involved.

Most Russians are just trying to survive in the best way possible. They regard it as a given that they don't control anything and are at the mercy of many malign forces, be it the local stores, the local Mafia, or the central government. We here in the USA, and in Europe (to a lesser or greater extent) demand and expect "justice". When we don't get it, either for ourselves or others, we at least try to do something about it and in general expect to at least accomplish something (not that we always do). The Russian people don't expect justice and they don't expect anybody to care that they aren't getting it. If they have to do something that is unfair to their neighbor to get ahead, so what? It is "normal".

Russians are probably more xenophobic than they are patriotic IMHO. They knew Stalin was a bastard, but he could tell them that the Germans were bastards AND they weren't Russians. Of course, neither was Stalin, but that is just the government, and everybody knows they lie. It is war. Do what you have to in order to survive. Lots of us won't, but that is normal. The Ukrainians welcomed the Germans because they were not Russians. Unfortunately, they were bastards, but it took a while to find that out.

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RE: Way OT: Ukraine - BostonCard - 04-16-2022

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1515380118130155536?s=21&t=EZL5BTG-ry_DWCcs17FGlQ[/tweet]

Why does a Queen song keep running through my head?

BC

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