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RE: NBA Discussion - lex24 - 03-20-2023
(03-20-2023, 12:03 PM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Some how, some way, the Warriors are -10.5 at Rockets tonight.
Does anyone think the W's will cover that number? Iron Man Kevon Looney is Questionable with back spasms, and they are still favored by 10.5?!?!?!
ESPN's terrible prediction algorithm has the W's with a 70% chance to win, but I just don't see it. Maybe the thinking is Klay Thompson will redeem himself after such a piss poor game in Memphis, and Curry will also not be as worn out as we was in Memphis. But still, road adversity has proven to be insurmountable for the 2022-23 GSW's.
Or maybe the Rockets will rest their stars on second of back-to-back hoping to not get too far ahead of Detroit in the Wembamyama sweepstakes...
Warriors 121-108. Covered.
I once read that the probability of a person without “an edge” (i.e normal bettor) getting 53% right against the spread assuming 1,000 games across all major sports is around 2.3%. 53% is breaking even given the Vig
I don’t bet often. It’s a suckers game.
RE: NBA Discussion - OutsiderFan - 03-21-2023
Warriors 121 Rockets 108 - why I don't bet on sports.
Nice to see Jordan Poole be +13 even scoring just 5 points. Kuminga 26 good minutes and I'm like Kerr, just watch the rebound numbers. Not a very impressive 3 in 26 minutes, but efficient production and plus defense without fouling much. If JK can just get up to 5-6 rebs a game...
The next "biggest game of the season" is Wednesday night in Dallas, with #6 Warriors vs. #7 Mavs. The last such game started the road trip against the Clippers and all but Curry shrank to the moment. If the W's somehow do get the W in Big D, they will be on track to finish over .500. If they lose, they will return to play Philly at .500, then fact the T-Wolves who just beat the Knicks at MSG (scoring a whopping 140), without Anthony Edwards. IOW, things get scary for the W's if they lose in Dallas, which I expect them to do.
Just 2 games separate the 6-12 seeds in the West and 4 separate 4-12. while 7 games separate 6-12 in East.
So many of these teams play each other down the stretch, it's hard to guess how it all shakes out.
RE: NBA Discussion - Mick - 03-21-2023
(03-21-2023, 05:35 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: The next "biggest game of the season" is Wednesday night in Dallas, with #6 Warriors vs. #7 Mavs. The last such game started the road trip against the Clippers and all but Curry shrank to the moment. If the W's somehow do get the W in Big D, they will be on track to finish over .500. If they lose, they will return to play Philly at .500, then fact the T-Wolves who just beat the Knicks at MSG (scoring a whopping 140), without Anthony Edwards. IOW, things get scary for the W's if they lose in Dallas, which I expect them to do.
Mavericks vs. Warriors spread: Warriors -10
The Mavericks are 8-17 against the spread in road games
The Warriors are 15-9-1 against the spread in home games
BTW, James Wiseman led the Pistons in a loss to Miami, as he scored a team-high 22 points on 10 of 13 attempts, with a team-high 13 rebounds. Made his only three point attempt. Played 30 minutes, zero assists, zero blocks, zero turnovers, two personal fouls and a -5.
RE: NBA Discussion - OutsiderFan - 03-23-2023
Even though the Warriors won in Dallas, earning their first consecutive road win of the season, the road reality that has killed them all year did not go away. Dallas scored +15 more points from the 3pt line. The Warriors won because they shot much better from 2-pt range than Dallas did, won the rebounding battle by 13, and were only -3 on turnovers. It still only resulted in the W's getting just one more FG attempt, and that weird inbounds call basically gifted the Warriors the margin of victory.
So give them their propers for doing something they hadn't done all year in their biggest game of the season to date, but I'm not convinced Kerr and his players should be patting themselves on the back as they did after the game. That effort might beat the depleted Mavericks, but it ain't gonna beat the other home teams vying for playoff glory.
They now have 5/6 at home with the now biggest game of the season Friday against the Sixers who are 9-1 over their last 10. My final 18 predicted record of 44-38 is still in the cards and spot on through 10 games (a few Ls and Ws off), but it's still possible the W's could miss the play-in or get as high as the #4 seed, with just 8 games left.
I hate to say it, but looking at the Lakers' schedule, it's possible they could be the #4 seed. My worst nightmare is the #4 Lakers vs. #5 Warriors, in first round, which means this is probably what will happen - ugh!
RE: NBA Discussion - Mick - 03-23-2023
The Warriors have fundamental issues, both at home and on the road. They're 29th in turnovers per game at 16.3, while forcing just 14.4 from opponents, which ranks 14th. They're 26th on blocks at 3.9 per game, whereas opponents are 4.1, 9th in the NBA. Warriors are dead last in the NBA at free throws attempted at 20.1 per game.
There is some good news. Warriors are #1 in assists (opponents are #19), and they actually protect the ball reasonably well from takeaways...opponents rank 27th in steals vs. the Warriors, while the W's are about average (#18).Warriors take the most 3 point attempts in the league, they make the most, and they have the highest 3 pt % in the league. They also take close to the fewest two point shots, ranking #28. Warriors are 9th in rebounding, that's saying something, while their opponents are 17th.
I don't think we can change the blocks, but if Kerr can figure out a way to reduce turnovers and personal fouls...it's about time. Right now, if the standings don't change, the Warriors have the sixth seed and play Sac'to.
NBA Team Standings & Stats | NBA.com
RE: NBA Discussion - lex24 - 03-23-2023
(03-23-2023, 07:42 AM)Mick Wrote: The Warriors have fundamental issues, both at home and on the road. They're 29th in turnovers per game at 16.3, while forcing just 14.4 from opponents, which ranks 14th. They're 26th on blocks at 3.9 per game, whereas opponents are 4.1, 9th in the NBA. Warriors are dead last in the NBA at free throws attempted at 20.1 per game.
There is some good news. Warriors are #1 in assists (opponents are #19), and they actually protect the ball reasonably well from takeaways...opponents rank 27th in steals vs. the Warriors, while the W's are about average (#18).Warriors take the most 3 point attempts in the league, they make the most, and they have the highest 3 pt % in the league. They also take close to the fewest two point shots, ranking #28. Warriors are 9th in rebounding, that's saying something, while their opponents are 17th.
I don't think we can change the blocks, but if Kerr can figure out a way to reduce turnovers and personal fouls...it's about time. Right now, if the standings don't change, the Warriors have the sixth seed and play Sac'to.
NBA Team Standings & Stats | NBA.com
I’m relatively certain Kerr has been harping to his players about reducing turnovers and avoiding stupid fouls. Players are the ones that have to do something about it.
NBA has essentially rendered the regular season meaningless. Especially for a team like the Warriors, whose core is older.
If they can avoid the play-in, they have a shot. The regular season road record is bizarre and disturbing. But the playoffs reduce those issues. First, they stay in one city. Second no back to backs (and sometimes 2 days off). Third, the bench gets shorter and can be tweaked based on the matchup
So, get in at 6 or above, with a relatively healthy Curry, Green, Thompson, Looney, Poole , DiVincenzo and see what happens.
RE: NBA Discussion - OutsiderFan - 03-25-2023
The Warriors win over the Sixers pretty much guarantees they will finish no worse than .500 and that is going to put them at least in the play-in games, so no lottery for the Warriors this year. They will beat San Antonio and at least one of Minnesota and New Orleans, to wrap that up.
The big game today is Philly at Phoenix, both coming off Friday night losses. If Phoenix loses, the Warriors will be in 5th place, with the Clippers in 4th, unless the Clippers lose to the Pelicans, in which case the Warriors will be in 4th place before they go to bed tonight.
The good news is Gary Payton II might be back Sunday night vs. T-Wolves.
RE: NBA Discussion - Mick - 03-25-2023
(03-23-2023, 09:27 AM)lex24 Wrote: So, get in at 6 or above, with a relatively healthy Curry, Green, Thompson, Looney, Poole , DiVincenzo and see what happens.
Any chance Wiggins returns?
RE: NBA Discussion - Leftcoast - 03-25-2023
Wiggins’ return is a mystery. “Out for family matters”, and the team and club are both saying publicly it’s a private matter and privately aren’t talking about it. No timeframe given for his return from his now two month hiatus.
I think it’s unlikely he’ll be a post-season factor unless he returns for practice and conditioning soon and the Warriors make a deep playoff run.
RE: NBA Discussion - gocard14 - 03-25-2023
(03-25-2023, 06:54 PM)Leftcoast Wrote: Wiggins’ return is a mystery. “Out for family matters”, and the team and club are both saying publicly it’s a private matter and privately aren’t talking about it. No timeframe given for his return from his now two month hiatus.
I think it’s unlikely he’ll be a post-season factor unless he returns for practice and conditioning soon and the Warriors make a deep playoff run.
It’s hard to see a real run happening without Wiggins. His D on Tatum swung the finals and he was a big part of at least slowing down Luka. Kuminga’s rise helps fill that gap, but he’s still young and prone to fouling, plus doesn’t provide enough spacing on O to play with Dray and Looney.
On the other hand, if wiggs comes back and is in form, we could be primed for big things.
Steph, Klay, wiggs, Dray, Looney lineup is still lethal (may need to play smaller with DDV or GP2 out more against elite guards like Memphis or Sacramento). Poole, DDV, GP2, and Kuminga is a pretty exellent 9 man group, and lamb and moody are servicable if you need a change or more shooting.
Without wiggs were just a bit short in spacing/defense/rebounding IMO
RE: NBA Discussion - OutsiderFan - 03-26-2023
Have to wonder if Steph Curry is going to reach out to Wiggins to see if he can persuade him to come back.
Holy smokes was Pelicans 131 Clippers 110 a shocking score to read this morning. It's now looking like the Warriors have a good shot to finish ahead of the Clippers. They have same record and Clippers have the tie breaker, but I think a good case can be made the W's will lose fewer games over the final 7 than Clippers will. That was a big and unexpected loss for them.
The Warriors will effectively go up 3 games on T-Wolves if they win tonight, as the W's will secure the tie-breaker with a win.
If only the Lakers can lose to the Bulls today...
RE: NBA Discussion - lex24 - 03-26-2023
(03-26-2023, 11:08 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Have to wonder if Steph Curry is going to reach out to Wiggins to see if he can persuade him to come back.
Holy smokes was Pelicans 131 Clippers 110 a shocking score to read this morning. It's now looking like the Warriors have a good shot to finish ahead of the Clippers. They have same record and Clippers have the tie breaker, but I think a good case can be made the W's will lose fewer games over the final 7 than Clippers will. That was a big and unexpected loss for them.
The Warriors will effectively go up 3 games on T-Wolves if they win tonight, as the W's will secure the tie-breaker with a win.
If only the Lakers can lose to the Bulls today...
2 steps forward, 1 1/2 steps back. Wilted down the stretch. Starting with Poole deciding that a 27 footer up 2 with 10 seconds on the shot and about 50 seconds left was a good shot. It wasn’t.
Then Draymond on all people makes a lazy pass with about 15 seconds left, up 2. Deflected, stolen. Klay then makes a defensive mistake and sinks in giving Townes a wide open three. Two turnovers to end it. Ugly.
RE: NBA Discussion - ca245 - 03-26-2023
(03-26-2023, 08:53 PM)lex24 Wrote:The end of game management was about as bad as our WBB game a week ago.(03-26-2023, 11:08 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Have to wonder if Steph Curry is going to reach out to Wiggins to see if he can persuade him to come back.
Holy smokes was Pelicans 131 Clippers 110 a shocking score to read this morning. It's now looking like the Warriors have a good shot to finish ahead of the Clippers. They have same record and Clippers have the tie breaker, but I think a good case can be made the W's will lose fewer games over the final 7 than Clippers will. That was a big and unexpected loss for them.
The Warriors will effectively go up 3 games on T-Wolves if they win tonight, as the W's will secure the tie-breaker with a win.
If only the Lakers can lose to the Bulls today...
2 steps forward, 1 1/2 steps back. Wilted down the stretch. Starting with Poole deciding that a 27 footer up 2 with 10 seconds on the shot and about 50 seconds left was a good shot. It wasn’t.
Then Draymond on all people makes a lazy pass with about 15 seconds left, up 2. Deflected, stolen. Klay then makes a defensive mistake and sinks in giving Townes a wide open three. Two turnovers to end it. Ugly.
RE: NBA Discussion - BostonCard - 03-27-2023
(03-26-2023, 11:08 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Have to wonder if Steph Curry is going to reach out to Wiggins to see if he can persuade him to come back.
Holy smokes was Pelicans 131 Clippers 110 a shocking score to read this morning. It's now looking like the Warriors have a good shot to finish ahead of the Clippers. They have same record and Clippers have the tie breaker, but I think a good case can be made the W's will lose fewer games over the final 7 than Clippers will. That was a big and unexpected loss for them.
The Warriors will effectively go up 3 games on T-Wolves if they win tonight, as the W's will secure the tie-breaker with a win.
If only the Lakers can lose to the Bulls today...
LOL. Please just say bad things about the Warriors, since they seem to go out of their way to make you look like a presumptuous fool.
BC
RE: NBA Discussion - OutsiderFan - 03-27-2023
(03-27-2023, 12:49 AM)BostonCard Wrote:(03-26-2023, 11:08 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote: Have to wonder if Steph Curry is going to reach out to Wiggins to see if he can persuade him to come back.
Holy smokes was Pelicans 131 Clippers 110 a shocking score to read this morning. It's now looking like the Warriors have a good shot to finish ahead of the Clippers. They have same record and Clippers have the tie breaker, but I think a good case can be made the W's will lose fewer games over the final 7 than Clippers will. That was a big and unexpected loss for them.
The Warriors will effectively go up 3 games on T-Wolves if they win tonight, as the W's will secure the tie-breaker with a win.
If only the Lakers can lose to the Bulls today...
LOL. Please just say bad things about the Warriors, since they seem to go out of their way to make you look like a presumptuous fool.
BC
Oh, so we can now call people fools on this board? Can we call people sanctimonious too?
As for the Warriors...
Pretty brutal loss, shades of at Utah when they gagged away win in final seconds earlier in season. It's almost like the W's subconsciously (or maybe even consciously but won't say publicly) want to play Sacramento in 6-3 matchup. If they win too much, they are going to get the Suns in first round, which they appear to not want?
The Lakers loss certainly hurt their chances to get to #4 or #5. Will be interesting to see if they also lose to the Bulls in Chicago. Speaking of the Bulls, they've now won 6 straight road games and play at Clippers tonight. If they win, the Warriors will have same record as Clippers, and 4 teams in West will have 37 losses.
Many observers thought there might be some separation happening in the West standings now. Not looking like it. Seems the season-long trend of these teams being all neck and neck is continuing through the end, though it looks like Dallas and Utah are starting to fall out of it. Utah better win tonight at home vs. Phoenix or they are likely done given their remaining schedule that includes Boston, Brooklyn, OKC, Denver, and Lakers twice.
Portland is now dead, with 42 losses. Will be interesting if they accept their fate or play inspired against the Pelicans tonight.
Anyone want to take a guess at how 4-10 finish? A fool's errand, I know, but this is all just for fun, or at least it's suppose to be...
RE: NBA Discussion - BostonCard - 03-27-2023
No, I said that the Warriors keep making you look like a fool, because every time you proclaim one thing for them, they go ahead and do the opposite. It’s as much a statement about the Warriors, who are a particularly tough nut to crack this year, as it is about you.
BC
RE: NBA Discussion - OutsiderFan - 03-28-2023
(03-27-2023, 08:04 AM)BostonCard Wrote: No, I said that the Warriors keep making you look like a fool, because every time you proclaim one thing for them, they go ahead and do the opposite. It’s as much a statement about the Warriors, who are a particularly tough nut to crack this year, as it is about you.
BC
Eh, I predicted them to go 44-18 with 18 games left. They are now -1 off that pace and would have to go 5-1 down stretch, including winning at Denver or Sac to pull it off. Not likely, but this record forecasting is not an exact science and one game of over 18 games wouldn’t suggest looking foolish. I would think it demonstrates some understanding of what is being forecasted. I’m just testing myself for fun, hoping others find it interesting or want to test their own understanding.
The W’s Sunday bag job got worse for them after Wolves beat Sac Monday night. The Wolves and Clippers both have the tie breaker on the Warriors, and the Wolves have the easier schedule the rest of the way. The W’s have completely used up all margin for error. If the Wolves beat Phoenix Wed night, they will avoid play-in and the W’s will get it.
Interestingly, the Warriors get another game at home with team one spot below them in standings, in the Pelicans. But at his point I don’t think it matters wha the result is.
The reality is the W’s just aren’t good enough to win any playoff series. That’s what they have proven over 76 games. As the saying goes, you are what your record says you are, and that now at best will likely be only 43-39.
RE: NBA Discussion - lex24 - 03-28-2023
(03-28-2023, 04:50 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(03-27-2023, 08:04 AM)BostonCard Wrote: No, I said that the Warriors keep making you look like a fool, because every time you proclaim one thing for them, they go ahead and do the opposite. It’s as much a statement about the Warriors, who are a particularly tough nut to crack this year, as it is about you.
BC
Eh, I predicted them to go 44-18 with 18 games left. They are now -1 off that pace and would have to go 5-1 down stretch, including winning at Denver or Sac to pull it off. Not likely, but this record forecasting is not an exact science and one game of over 18 games wouldn’t suggest looking foolish. I would think it demonstrates some understanding of what is being forecasted. I’m just testing myself for fun, hoping others find it interesting or want to test their own understanding.
The W’s Sunday bag job got worse for them after Wolves beat Sac Monday night. The Wolves and Clippers both have the tie breaker on the Warriors, and the Wolves have the easier schedule the rest of the way. The W’s have completely used up all margin for error. If the Wolves beat Phoenix Wed night, they will avoid play-in and the W’s will get it.
Interestingly, the Warriors get another game at home with team one spot below them in standings, in the Pelicans. But at his point I don’t think it matters wha the result is.
The reality is the W’s just aren’t good enough to win any playoff series. That’s what they have proven over 76 games. As the saying goes, you are what your record says you are, and that now at best will likely be only 43-39.
Playoffs are a different animal. Travel is limited. No back to backs. Rotation shortened and perhaps tweaked as adjustment’s made. Dray Looney Klay Curry DiVincenzo Poole Payton will be the constants. Kuminga probably 8 but that depends on matchups etc. No reason to go deeper. Payton allows Kerr some combinations that are potentially fairly strong defensively. Defense from anyone other than DiVincenzo off the bench has been practically nonexistent.
Warriors have, obviously, a ton of playoff experience. They play Sac, for example, a team with none, that gives Warriors a leg up. They aren’t going to win the West. But I would not be surprised to see them win at least the first round.
RE: NBA Discussion - OutsiderFan - 03-28-2023
(03-28-2023, 06:43 AM)lex24 Wrote:(03-28-2023, 04:50 AM)OutsiderFan Wrote:(03-27-2023, 08:04 AM)BostonCard Wrote: No, I said that the Warriors keep making you look like a fool, because every time you proclaim one thing for them, they go ahead and do the opposite. It’s as much a statement about the Warriors, who are a particularly tough nut to crack this year, as it is about you.
BC
Eh, I predicted them to go 44-18 with 18 games left. They are now -1 off that pace and would have to go 5-1 down stretch, including winning at Denver or Sac to pull it off. Not likely, but this record forecasting is not an exact science and one game of over 18 games wouldn’t suggest looking foolish. I would think it demonstrates some understanding of what is being forecasted. I’m just testing myself for fun, hoping others find it interesting or want to test their own understanding.
The W’s Sunday bag job got worse for them after Wolves beat Sac Monday night. The Wolves and Clippers both have the tie breaker on the Warriors, and the Wolves have the easier schedule the rest of the way. The W’s have completely used up all margin for error. If the Wolves beat Phoenix Wed night, they will avoid play-in and the W’s will get it.
Interestingly, the Warriors get another game at home with team one spot below them in standings, in the Pelicans. But at his point I don’t think it matters wha the result is.
The reality is the W’s just aren’t good enough to win any playoff series. That’s what they have proven over 76 games. As the saying goes, you are what your record says you are, and that now at best will likely be only 43-39.
Playoffs are a different animal. Travel is limited. No back to backs. Rotation shortened and perhaps tweaked as adjustment’s made. Dray Looney Klay Curry DiVincenzo Poole Payton will be the constants. Kuminga probably 8 but that depends on matchups etc. No reason to go deeper. Payton allows Kerr some combinations that are potentially fairly strong defensively. Defense from anyone other than DiVincenzo off the bench has been practically nonexistent.
Warriors have, obviously, a ton of playoff experience. They play Sac, for example, a team with none, that gives Warriors a leg up. They aren’t going to win the West. But I would not be surprised to see them win at least the first round.
I must say part of why I thought the W's could get to the #4 or #5 a few weeks ago seed was predicated on Gary Payton 2 AND Andrew Wiggins playing. GP2 did what he needed to do for them to beat the Wolves, but Green and Poole pissed it away. I thought Wiggins would be back by now, but it seems it's far more likely that he doesn't return than he does.
RE: NBA Discussion - OutsiderFan - 03-29-2023
And down the stretch they come!
Another night, another BRUTAL loss for a Western Conference play offs/in hopeful. This time, it's the OKC Thunder losing at home to Charlotte Hornets. Given Dallas dropped two games to this team last week, they likely would miss the play offs/in even if they won, but it was a game they really couldn't afford to lose.
The Warriors sure appeared to be hung over from their own BRUTAL loss to the Wolves on Sunday, falling behind 20 points in the first half to the Pelicans. They rescued themselves with a dominant second half to win comfortably. What is fascinating is that Jonathan Kuminga started (for Looney) and played 31 minutes, was perfect from the field, +17, and impacted winning, one game following a pretty meh -8 14 minutes off the bench.
Looking ahead, assuming Denver, Memphis, Sac, and Phoenix are 1-4, based on remaining schedules, and given how tough the Clippers' is in particular, Minnesota is well-positioned to end up #5. The W's still have a pretty good shot at getting the #6 seed, which is what they seem to want. Right now it looks like they could very well be playing at Portland in final game of season to avoid play-in with Lakers.